CheeseheadInQC

Hasn’t his issue been, to some degree, fluctuating velocity? In years where it is up, he looks like a legit prospect. In years where it is down, he gets hit hard. Regardless, all it would cost is a 40-man spot in a year the Brewers have a lot of them. It’s not like they are giving up a future top 10 prospect for him (sorry Cleveland).

Then you take the year and the pick. It would be basically the equivalent of Knoth draft position wise if I remember correctly, and I’ve got him 8th in a pretty good Brewers system. Anything less and you are taking a loss, especially since the other team would be in line for a pick if they don’t re-sign him.

OK, Quero's not really worth discussing he's such a lock, so here are the others: Hitters: It feels like if they were going to protect anyone, it would be Cam Devanney, but if they were going to protect Devanney, they probably would have last season. The case for Devanney: In all, 16 players who played a significant amount of shortstop tallied 300 plate appearances in triple-A last year while posting at least a wRC+ of 103 (Devanney's was 107). I believe Devanney is the only one not to spend any time in the majors. Of the others, Zamora was too erratic last year to probably get picked, Collins, well, I just can't really see a good reason to rank him above Devanney at this juncture. Pitchers: This is a bit more complex. There are a couple of interesting arms elsewhere on this list, but for me it comes down to five names: Probably not, but worth mentioning: Alexander Cornielle. Had stronger peripherals than you would expect last season. Probably doesn't fit the mold as much as Blaylock among the lower level guys, but is close enough where he should be mentioned, in my opinion. Stranger things have happened: Justin Yeager, Evan McKendry. Yeager has been OK in the AFL, but I don't think he's been earn a 40-man spot good after what was otherwise a lost season. McKendry feels like the type of guy right now whose primary value would be the ability to get the occasional spot start out of him while he continues to work in triple-A. Obviously that wouldn't be an option for a team taking him in the Rule 5. Toss a Coin: Bradley Blaylock, Tobias Myers. Blaylock has the most prospect pedigree in the group, but is it enough to get him picked. He might only be at a 20% chance of being picked, but with some 40-man spots to spare, it might be worth it to the Brewers not to take that risk. Myers came on big late last season and was at least a moderately highly thought of prospect fairly recently, albeit one the Indians now wish they had never heard of.

Correct me if I am wrong, but for the main group, this is the last year of that bizarre quirk that was mentioned involving the Rule 5 clock starting early for the DSL crew, right, given the fact the signing date got moved to the offseason? Like the Quero class is this season, but Chourio’s isn’t next offseason but rather the following one.

Big fan of the re-signings so far, assuming the Chirino and Navarreto deals get done. Chirino might have made his big league debut last season if he had stayed healthy. Still need more catchers, though.

To be fair, if you are likely to stick at short and have demonstrated above average power in the minors, chances are you either come with a lot of swing and miss or are a top 100 prospect.

I hate it, hate it, hate it, but that is actually considered correct apostrophe usage now.

But, following up my previous comment, my initial thought of an article on this was about how the flattening of baseball organizational charts led to the decrease in manager power and salary that the Cubs bucked, so I am not someone to look to for advice on reaching a broad audience.

I agree about this specific article, but probably for a different reason. Honestly, at that point, the interesting part was the emotion (at least in the main portion of the story). If it could be done without coming across as gloating, writing it from a Cubs’ fan perspective about the emotion of the day would have actually been more interesting. As it was, it reminded me of an editor who said that sometimes you need to write a 500-word headline, a story where all the information is in the headline, but it is important enough where you have to make the story 500 words long anyway to avoid looking like you’re ignoring it.

In my old job I frequently had to put together briefs on the Cubs and Cardinals or write road gamers when our local minor league team was visiting Appleton. Other than not having to double check the spelling of the Timber Rattlers’ names, being a Brewers fan didn’t affect things any differently than if I was a fan of the Mariners or Marlins. If you’re good at what you do with the writing and are willing to acquire the requisite knowledge about the other team, fandom shouldn’t matter.

I completely missed Weeks rejoining the organization. It would appear that with the coaches all coming back it will be him or Murphy.

No clue who it will be, but hiring someone who hasn't managed doesn't mean it's a budget signing, although some already seem to be framing it that way (what experience did Counsell have managing?). I just feel anymore, since the analytics revolution, there are so many parts that need to work together that predicting who is going to work well for a particular team is largely a fool's errand. (Outside of LaRussa to the White Sox. That was laughably doomed from the start) Despite the fact that I follow baseball more closely than football and basketball, I feel less confident having an opinion on this hire than I would the Packers or Bucks. There's just a level of stuff I don't know lurking beneath the usual amount of fan ignorance at the surface.

Not the birthday present I was hoping for here. I guess Counsell did reset the market, but I really wonder if it has the effect he hopes. Manager salaries had been going down, at least the top-level ones, not up. That trend is unlikely to be changed by one outlier. While not quite as far out of the norm, I'd compare it to giving an NFL team a hefty, fully guaranteed 4-year deal to a 30-year-old running back. Just because they did it, doesn't mean any other team will. I guess it could lead to more managers following Counsell's lead and entering "free agency," but Counsell could because of the level of job security he enjoyed. In most cases, getting the extra guaranteed years on the extension outweighs the possibility for another million or two per that might never materialize.

Honestly, in this case at the level of prospect involved, the pitcher has the clearer path to being a big league contributor. If you want an offensive prospect with upside at this prospect level, you are best case getting another team’s Jhonny Severino, a toolsy, far from the big leagues hitter with question marks.

Man, Cooper’s strikeout rates, while still low for his time would be unheard of today if not for one player. His prime at 1b was certainly different than someone like Fielder, but no less impactful.

You keep Baez at least rotating at short for now because of the big difference between the Braun comparison: he is heading into his low-A season. I think you keep a guy at a position in the minors so long as you think there is a 35-40% chance they stick there. Beyond that, move them to get them used to the new position.

Areinamo I think is a lock. Guilarte, because of the time lost due to injury, is slightly more likely to be held back. I still think both start in high-A, though.

Other Wilson, the one who I believe got reinjured before pitching an inning.

Kind of branching off this topic, if they end up moving O’Rae to the outfield, I wonder who plays second at Carolina next season. Pratt, Baez and Bitonti all have been talked about almost exclusively at SS or 3rd. Pratt got some time at 2nd, but is probably the best prospect with a legit chance to stick at SS in the group, and generally you just fill in around that spot. Could be an opening for Gregory Barrios, assuming Areinamo and Guilarte get bumped up.

On the plus side, had nearly as many walks as strikeouts in triple-A, was in the 97th percentile for swinging strike rate among guys with 200+ triple-A plate appearance last season and was fifth among that same group in line drive percentage, totaling more line drives than ground balls or fly balls, so he came by that BABIP honestly. On the minus side, in their write-up on the Blue Jays system before the season, Fangraphs listed his position as DH (they list where they project a player to play, not necessarily where he has been playing).

I feel more confident about the current group of third basemen than in a long time, at least offensively. Each full season level (if they hold Black back) has a top 25ish Brewers prospect at minimum, and the ACL will likely have one of my favorite short-season sleepers. On that topic, if you’re including Nadal, I would have tossed in Alastre. His season was basically a better version of Nadal’s 2022. Although I realize I might be alone in this.

I thought I'd use a couple of items I wrote before the season to look at some of the things that did (or did not) go right in 2023. Statistics to Watch Ground Ball Rate - Jadher Areinamo When we left Jadher Areinamo at the end of the 2022 season, he was coming off a breakout campaign, finishing his age-18 season at low-A. It came with a caveat: once he got promoted to full season ball, his ground ball rate spiked and the doubles power that he had shown in Arizona abandoned him. In 2023, Areinamo's batted ball stats, included ground ball rate, bounced back to the exceedingly balanced collection he displayed during his stellar complex league season. And the results, eventually, caught up. After a horrid April and mediocre May and June, Areinamo turned it on. This was in large part thanks to his extra-base power returning. He hit 17 of his 26 doubles and three of his four home runs in July and August. Here's to another year of Areinamo spraying line drives all over the field. Walk Rate - Jeferson Quero This was one of the few aspects of Quero's game not going well early in the season. Then suddenly he flipped a switch and the walks started to come. He ended up hitting doubles digits in walk rate, although barely. That's a definite plus for a guy whose patience at the plate seemed to be the biggest knock on him in scouts' minds coming into the 2023 season. The one hiccup: initially when his walks went up, his power went down. And then just when it seemed like he was figuring out how to draw more walks while also getting to his power, he got hurt and didn't hit quite as well when he came back. That is going to be the key for him going forward, finding an approach that allows him to get on base without sacrificing the power potential he has displayed. ISO - Gregory Barrios Well, it improved. In a year not a ton went right for Barrios, his ISO moved from .051 to .071. That's probably not as much as Barrios or the Brewers would have liked, but it was at least an improvement. He totaled 24 extra base hits, including his first home run, after having just 13 in his first two seasons combined. More on Barrios' weird year later. Sleepers Tier 1 Gregory Barrios This was not the season Barrios hoped for. First the bad. Of all of the players at Carolina who got at least 100 plate appearances, only Blayberg Diaz had worse results at the plate. Despite trailing only Areinamo among Carolina regulars in strikeout rate, Barrios hit only .232. For a guy who doesn't collect a ton of walks or hit for much power, that is not a good starting point. There were good reasons to think Barrios might be headed for a breakout heading into the season. It seemed the Brewers did, too, as he was hitting toward the top of the lineup a lot early in the year. And the Brewers never really lost faith in him. While Daniel Guilarte's injury problems undoubtedly contributed to this stat, Barrios had the most plate appearances of any Mudcat. No matter how much the bat was struggling, he was kept in the lineup. Looking at Barrios' batted ball metrics, there is also a bit of weirdness. He went from a guy who went the other way much of the time his first two seasons to a dead pull hitter this year. But nothing else really changed. His already inflated infield fly rate spiked a bit, but I don't know if that was even really significant. His flyball rate was less than a percentage point different. His strikeout rate was pretty much smack in the middle of his numbers from his first two seasons, and while his walk rate fell, it wasn't more than you'd expect going from the Complex League to A ball. It's almost enough to make me wonder if Fangraphs' tracking for this season had him hitting from the wrong side of the plate. How can a guy almost cut the rate at which he goes the other way in half and see nothing else change? Patricio Aquino One of two on this list that I am considering wins, Aquino was third in the Carolina League in ERA among those with at least 80 innings. And while the peripherals weren't quite as good, they were still solid at worst. He had above average ground ball and swinging strike rates, although the strikeout rate was a touch below average for league starters. Hopefully he can build on this season next year at Wisconsin. Justin Yeager Lost season due to injury. After a rough first outing, his Arizona Fall League stint has been good enough to remain promising but not so dominant as work himself into a likely 40-man spot. Tier 2 Juan Baez Turns out there was a reason the Brewers gave a low-bonus signing with a bit below average offensive stats a ton of playing time at shortstop in the DSL in 2022. Baez was one of the bigger offensive breakthroughs in system in 2022, putting up surprisingly good complex league power numbers for a guy whose ground ball rates approached Mendez/Guilarte territory. The question going forward is going to be patience. Other prospects who saw lower walk rates when they moved into full season ball, like Quero, Chourio and Areinamo, at least had passable walk rates in DSL or complex league. The fact that Baez didn't walk even in the leagues where, let's face it, the pitchers are at their wildest, is a bit of a concern. Brian Fitzpatrick Fitzpatrick will try to build off his solid but not spectacular showing in Carolina down under this winter, but for a guy who struggled to stay healthy during his college career, missing a substantial chunk of the season might have been a bigger red flag than his struggles in Arizona while rehabbing. Since I said he stood in for much of the eclectic group of pitchers chosen round five and later last year, most of them except Maldonado had at least solid seasons, although none truly broke out. Jeison Pena I was debating between two relievers I was really high on for this spot. In retrospect, I'd look a lot smarter if I'd gone with Shane Smith. I'd figured that once Pena got settled in more in full season ball, that the walk rate would start to decline. It didn't. It got worse. And the strikeout rate which made him so intriguing in 2022 dropped. How disappointing was his season? He wasn't even Carolina's most statistically promising 20-year-old with a 6.00+ ERA. Tier 3 The Hitters It's not really worth giving each a section. Zack Raabe was cut before the season. Jhonnys Cabrera was cut after the season. Blayberg Diaz as of now looks like the backup at Wisconsin next season if only because the Brewers cut so many catchers there is literally no one else. In my defense, of the hitters I would have put in this tier, at least stateside, only Isaac Collins really established himself. The second best season probably belonged to Alex Hall, and it got him cut. Brailin Rodriguez After being one of the youngest pitchers to make his full-season debut with the Brewers in 2021 and then subsequently missing 2022 with injury, Rodriguez looked poised to start 2023 in Carolina. But it didn't happen. It never happened, and perhaps we glimpsed why as he had a disastrous first month in Arizona. The thing is, after that month, he was among the better pitchers on the Brewers' ACL squad. I didn't even notice until looking back for this blog post because his June was so disastrous that it doomed his stats, but he had a better than 4:1 strikeout to walk rate the last two months of the season. Thanks to the sheer number of college pitchers picked/signed last year, he isn't a lock to break camp with Carolina, but it wouldn't shock me if he ended up turning into a solid bullpen piece for them next year either. Looking Forward It's tough to say that you can really learn much from the successes on this list as it relates to picking breakthroughs for next season. Aquino was more impressive than any of the guys who pitched a significant amount of time in the ACL last year outside of the obvious one, and he was repeating the level. And as far as Baez goes, the closest comparison playing time wise was probably Roderick Flores, who was third behind Yophery Rodriguez and Filippo Di Turi in plate appearances among Brewers DSL players and got a passable amount of time at shortstop. Flores also, however, had a 29% strikeout rate that seems to make it unlikely he'll put together a Baez-like stateside breakout, at least in 2024. Lessons from the guys who didn't do as well? Well if there are, chances are I didn't learn them. I haven't decided on all my sleepers for next year yet, but there is an above-average chance there will be a fringy rookie-leaguer coming off an injury on there. Because sometimes, I just can't help myself.

Did I miss something with Smith? Hasn’t pitched in a while.

Rodriguez's is an interesting statistical profile. For a flyball pitcher who gives up a lot of pulled contact, he surrenders surprisingly few home runs (second lowest HR/FB rate across all of Double-A, min. 100 innings). Some of it is his consistently high infield fly ball rates, but it seems to be more than that. Any of you who have seen him pitch more, does he just surrender a lot of soft flyball contact?

While he didn’t even have enough balls in play for even ground ball/fly ball rates to be meaningful, the early returns point to a line drive hitter (balanced fly ball vs. ground ball) which I have 0 problem with. Hopefully the frame can propel him to at least average power and the other tools stay plus.