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CheeseheadInQC

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Everything posted by CheeseheadInQC

  1. CheeseheadInQC
    The problem is, there were only what, 9 to 11 of those guys, and all the ones 35 or under got 5-plus years at $20+ million per. There was no real chance to be opportunistic, which they have shown a willingness to do in the past. I am on record as saying I would have done or topped (albeit slightly) the Wil Myers deal, but I am not going to pretend he is of a significantly higher tier than the two they signed.
  2. CheeseheadInQC
    Then argue why the stats are incomplete or out of context or subject to a logical fallacy or why a different set more accurately describes the situation. It seems the alternative is some variation on who shouts loudest. Also, looking up stats for arguments have caused me to change my mind when the stats don’t match my expectations. There is value in the act itself.
  3. CheeseheadInQC
    Cain’s 2018 got overshadowed by Yelich, but Fangraphs ranks it as the second best season by a Brewers center fielder ever, just behind Gomez’s best season and ahead of Yount’s second MVP. It will be interesting to see which direction you go with the fifth spot for right field: skill, excitement or longevity.
  4. CheeseheadInQC
    As fun as a Scotty Pods’ time with the Brewers was and as poorly as last season went, I still think LoCain belongs on this list. He was the second best player on one of the best teams in franchise history.
  5. CheeseheadInQC
    Yah, I'd love Hunter Brown, but I'm not holding my breath. In kind of the area that Carpenter was prospect-wise at the time of the trade you've got a reclamation project (Whitley), a few upside pitchers with control issues (Arrighetti, Ullola), a couple of fastball-changeup college arms they took early last year (Taylor, Knorr), a few lower level power over hit tool outfielders (Cerny, Baez, Gomez) and a potential backend starter whose K-rate declined a bit last year (Murray).
  6. CheeseheadInQC
    Am I the only one who double-checked that this wasn’t another brother of Jackson and Jaison? Talent wise this might be close, but it definitely feels like a much cleaner fit for the Twins.
  7. CheeseheadInQC
    It really feels like there are two spots for Hiura, Frelick, Toro, Turang and Miller. Honestly, I think, assuming everyone is healthy, Frelick gets a spot and the other is between Hiura and Toro.
  8. CheeseheadInQC
    I know reading scouting reports on international signings from MLB pipeline is inevitably going to give you warm, fuzzy feelings on all of these guys, but based on the write-ups I wonder if given how early these deals are often agreed upon, this was the first class under the organization’s increased emphasis on bat-to-ball skills. And while they might not have signed any tall hitters in this year’s class so far, there were at least two 6-2 or taller late signings from last year’s class who will be making their debut next year.
  9. CheeseheadInQC
    My general guide to positions with these signings (outside of pitcher and catcher). SS: Displays a bare minimum amount of functional athleticism and arm strength. Likely to start on the infield. CF: Displays a bare minimum amount of functional athleticism. Likely to start in the outfield. 2b: Like a shortstop, but without the arm strength. 3b: Likely future first baseman or right fielder. 1b: Already probably 6-5. RF: See 3b LF: Like a right fielder, but without the arm strength. Is this too reductive? Yes. But it also keeps me from being too disappointed when most of them inevitably move down the defensive spectrum.
  10. CheeseheadInQC
    I'm glad to see Areinamo showing up on more lists. I'm planning to write more as part of a blog post before the season starts on stats to watch, but if you were to put together a set of metrics on how a hitter can succeed without much home run power, the result probably would look pretty much like what Areinamo was doing in Arizona last season. Not all of that stayed after his promotion, but if he can get back to hitting the way he did in Arizona in full season ball next year, he might be a top 10 prospect in the system even if his home run totals stay low.
  11. CheeseheadInQC
    Good analysis. It feels like, minus any coming waiver claims, the 40-man could start the season at 35.
  12. CheeseheadInQC
    Am I the only one who thinks that at this point the arbitration thing is getting blown out of proportion? Can’t they keep negotiating and come to an agreement at any point before the ruling comes down?
  13. CheeseheadInQC
    I don’t think it is imperative to make any decisions now. The hitting window you are talking about is based a lot on improvements made last year. There is a chance that the pitching prospect quality looks a lot different this time next year, too.
  14. CheeseheadInQC
    If it weren’t for the success of the recent years I would take the Brewers’ comments in McCalvy’s article about the pitchers in this class with a grain of salt, but now I am more hopeful that the optimism is genuine.
  15. CheeseheadInQC
    Maybe it is just some higher floor guys, but it seems like the last few classes the sub-6-foot players are outperforming their bonuses more often than the 6-2-plus guys among the international signings for Milwaukee.
  16. CheeseheadInQC
    Compared to league averages, Arcia’s AA season was every bit as good as any of the shortstops who played mostly at AA last year, including the much hyped Anthony Volpe, and at a younger age. His free swinging nature might dock him a bit more now, but he would still be a top 20 guy. As for Chourio, it is possible for the following two things to be true: 1. He is deservedly one of the very best prospects in baseball 2. There is no such thing as a can’t miss 18 year old.
  17. CheeseheadInQC
    Especially these minor league deals, I have no problem signing the better stuff than results guys, just like I have no problem drafting them. Usually it never quite works out, but when it does, it can be impactful.
  18. CheeseheadInQC
    I've seen trade value lists and I've seen lists of value to a team this year. This list seems to be trying to split the difference and it has led to some real strange results. While I might not put them my list, I wouldn't quibble with Winker or Tellez being put on a list of highest value to the team for this year. Winker has had some great offensive seasons and Tellez seems like the type who has at least one 2018 Jesus Aguilar season in him. That said, neither belong anywhere near a trade value top 10. And similarly, Chourio seems tracking toward a 2024 debut, or at least really late 2023, so he doesn't belong on a list of contributors for this season. Basically you have to really contort and combine criteria to create a list with both Chourio and Winker/Tellez on it. As far as trade value goes, I'd be pretty close to the list SveumRules posted earlier. I might be tempted to swap Frelick and Quero, but that would be more of my own personal opinion rather than what they would bring back in a trade.
  19. CheeseheadInQC
    Honestly, I put my cut off randomly at 400 AB (I should have mentioned that) so he wasn’t even on my radar.
  20. CheeseheadInQC
    As someone else noted, era adjustments are a thing. For what it is worth, Sexson’s best offensive season ranks ninth among Brewers primary first basemen in wRC+ behind three Fielder seasons, three Cooper seasons and two Scott seasons. And the guy who is tops on that list for individual seasons other than those four hasn’t even been mentioned. Also, I have good memories of Brock because his best year coincided with my first year as a big baseball fan, but Jaha is number five. I think you can safely slot Overbay ahead of him too.
  21. CheeseheadInQC
    Also, while his career mostly predates my fandom, I am surprised there hasn’t been a complaint about Cooper not being No. 1 yet.
  22. CheeseheadInQC
    My biggest memory of Brock was both him and Surhoff falling just short of .300 on the final day of the 1987.
  23. CheeseheadInQC
    Most unexpected was the one executive who was really praising Brown. I had never really seen him discussed in the top tier of defensive prospects in the system. Quero, Mitchell, Turang and Wiemer, yes, but not Brown.
  24. CheeseheadInQC
    They needed another hitter or two at Nashville. This fills one of those spots.
  25. CheeseheadInQC
    You could point to a lot of the pitchers lately (I don't remember hearing much when Cruz signed and Cornielle was even an in-season signing). On the hitting side, I don't think Areinamo or Castillo were among the higher bonuses in their class either.
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