This is the case with basically every free agent, ever. Yes, Arrieta presents slightly more risk as a pitcher and as one with declining velocity...but who are we saving the money for? If not Arrieta this year, we'll be thinking about signing some other 3.75 FIP/ERA guy for $100 million next year, pushing the contract burden a year further down the road. Except that by next year, in theory we'll have Anderson, Davies, Nelson, Hader, Woodruff, and Burnes as established guys in the rotation with Ortiz and Peralta waiting in the wings. None of those guys will be expensive, and they can all be every bit as successful as Arrieta will be going forward. If everything breaks right, we'll have to figure out which guy or guys to trade to clear space. If one or two guys fail, well I have eight names listed and five rotation spots. And every one of the guys I listed has had significant success in the upper levels of the minors, and therefore they aren't as likely to fail. We really shouldn't be targeting anyone on more than a 2 year deal with the pitching we have on the way. I think alot of folks are fooling themselves thinking Hader is definitely moving to the rotation. He's way more valuable doing just what he did for us at this point than creating another mediocre starter. Come the second half of the year if his results are still pressing the issue then MAYBE consider it. Hard to envison a AA guy being called an "established" rotation guy at this point too ain't it? The more good bodies the better IMO, Arrieta isn't the same type of player these bums like Suppan were