Jopal78
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Everything posted by Jopal78
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Brewers sign Gary Sanchez (Deal Official, $3M plus Incentives)
Jopal78 replied to Vgmastr's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Players go where the money is. I’m sure Martinez (and Soler) are holding out for multi-year deals. If/when they decide they’ll accept a one year contract they will have no lack of suitors. Given the Brewers M.O. to be active in free agency late with one year guarantees, I’d bet they have open offers to both Martinez and Soler. It’s somewhat out of character for Milwaukee to hand out a major league deal to Haase and now sign Sanchez. Gary is not really the kind of guy you want to DH every day, and if he’s going to play some catcher than there’s no need to carry Haase on the 26 man at all, and it’s essentially eating a million dollars . -
$7 million dollars, market rate?? Like most recent Brewer free agent signings it’s actually a cut rate deal ( especially being able to split that 7 million dollars across two seasons with use of a buyout on a mutual option). You can’t sign a free agent starting pitcher for much less than 10 million dollars. Then relievers with starting experience like Matt Moore, Joe Kelly, and Martin Perez are all making 8 million or more in 2024. Grandal and Hoskins aside, this is the same song and dance the Brewers do every late January/early February: sign some established veteran free agents who are willing to take bargain rate one year guarantees.
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Which is my point; Junis may have some real value as a multi-inning reliever swingman. As a 5th starter he’d likely be below average guy you hope makes it through 4-5 innings. With Gasser, Hall, Ashby, and the other younger arms they have, it seems in the long run they’d be better off seasoning those guys than having Junis soak up 4 innings every 5th day.
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But Houser 42 of Houser’s 45 appearances in that time frame were starts. Only 21 of 63 appearances were starts for Junis. The last time Junis was used as more than an opener (2022) his era as a starter was nearing 5.00 Probably earmarked as the swingman on the ‘24 team in the vein of Jason Alexander or Aaron Ashby. I sure hope they would stick with their young arms at the back of the rotation than rolling with Junis.
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That doesn’t make a lot of sense. If Hoskins plays well in ‘24, it means he’s opting out. That’s why Boras coined the term “pillow contract”. If he doesn’t play well, this discussion becomes a moot point because the Brewers won’t be able to trade him anyway. Catastrophic injuries for non-pitchers do not happen very often; assuming he plays well in ‘24, I doubt the risk of another catastrophic injury figures significantly in the calculus if he ultimately becomes available in trade.
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Hmmmm, one MLB team has a recent track record of trading key performers at the deadline despite being a contender, and they have dropped pitchers who started a combined 84 games for them last year, so there is definitely some unpredictability in the Brewers front office so I wouldn’t rule it out completely. But yeah, you’d think it unlikely which is why I put “or he opts out”
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Folks want to be Tampa Bay, yet when the Brewers shuffle the deck like the Rays there’s anger and frustration. They were always going to trade Burnes, despite their “bites the Apple talk”. The awkward timing of it just means the front office figured this package from Baltimore was the best they were going to do. The Hoskins signing is smart despite what happens with Burnes. If he plays well, they trade him at the deadline, or he opts out, declines their QO and they get a pick in ‘25. Even if he struggles, he’s a vet with a good reputation league wide to hold down the fort with Yelich while they break in young players across their lineup
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I’d mention Juan Soto, while merely a rental, is on a hall of fame track with his production, Burnes, meanwhile, is a very good starting pitcher but wouldn’t be on anyone’s Hall of Fame watch list right now. Finally, the days of getting a young John Smoltz for Doyle Alexander or a young Brian Giles for Ricardo Rincon are over. Even the most aggressive teams don’t trade their best blue chippers for veterans anymore.
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That’s a huge IF though, even in a loaded draft class it’s a crapshoot after the first 15-20 picks. Further, the Brewers have made a lot of selections, supplemental or otherwise, near the back of the first round with pretty underwhelming results. Jake Odorizzi (#32 in ‘08) Mitch Haniger (#38 in ‘12) being the best of the bunch, though neither ever played for the Brewers. Evan Fredrickson was #35 overall in ‘08, Kentrail Davis #39 in ‘09, Henry Gatewood #41 in ‘14, Nathan Kirby #40 in ‘15 and Tristen Lutz was #34 overall in ‘17; none of them saw major league action. Ethan Small was #28 in ‘19 and just got DFA’d. I’m not knocking the trade, but really it’s two players and an extra roll of the dice for Corbin Burnes.
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Maybe they use their new surplus money to sign as many vets as they can to one year deals: Greinke, Hyun-Jin Ryu ,JD Martinez, etc. Make the talent drop off somewhat less.
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…Justin Turner… DH, but play a little 1B, 3B maybe even a taste of 2B in a pinch like last year
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Doesn’t it feel like it’s going to be announced Justin Turner is coming to Milwaukee on a one year deal? Like Hoskins, not a lot of buzz as a free agent, has some question marks (age, declining skills) but was still terrific last year, and would fill a need DH/3B
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What’s not to like signing a veteran to a minor league deal? He shows them something and makes the team, or he goes to AAA/exercises his opt out.
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The Brewers would have to release Junk for him to be able to go play in Japan, so I think the answer to your question is no. Interestingly, if Junk is seeking opportunities in Japan it tells me he already has the go-ahead from the Brewers to try to find a situation that would advance his career more than remaining in the Brewers organization.
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I doubt the owner’s involvement extends to dictating actual personnel moves. I don’t think Brewers would have been able to achieve what they have in the last 20 years with that degree of meddling and NOT have it been reported on.
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MLB revenue disparity and its impact on competition
Jopal78 replied to Playing Catch's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
It is irrelevant what I think, I don’t own a team or have a say. Obviously, the large market clubs like things the way they are, so if your team is not one of the big dogs you have no choice but to hope for miracles, or follow one of the big dogs. -
MLB revenue disparity and its impact on competition
Jopal78 replied to Playing Catch's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Of course it’s not fair; the owners of the large market clubs could always offer to split their local broadcast revenue, but if you’re the Chairman of the Board of the New York Yankees it is probably viewed as a good thing that a third of the teams you’re competing against for the pennant do not have a realistic shot at winning it because you keep all that broadcast revenue for yourself. Then again that’s also one of the beautiful things about baseball, the teams with a roster of players collectively being paid 275 million dollars or more do not always finish ahead of the team with the 100 million dollar payroll which in turn makes those clubs (outside of NYY and LAD) volatile and constantly hitting the reset button. -
Tyrone Taylor while a sentimental favorite is really just a guy (can play all three spots with a little power an no on base skills). Trayce Thompson has nearly an identical career stat line and bounces from club to club on minor league deals, yet Taylor is set to make triple that amount. Sure it was a salary dump, but a smart one for a player who was owed more than market rate for his skill set. Houser is a useful major league pitcher, but in ‘23 he failed to pitch five innings in his starts more often than he made it to the sixth inning. Another player who is kind of pricey for what his skill set brings to the table. Below average starting pitcher or long relief.
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Deferred money or not, it’s all real dollars and the Dodgers’ folly. Despite extreme financial clout they haven’t a won a full season championship since Ronald Reagan was President. The Yankees weren’t the first team to hand out a 100 million dollar contract, a 200 million dollar contract or even a 300 million dollar contract, but they traded for each of those players (Kevin Brown, A-Rod and Stanton) in pursuit of a championship and have one title to show for it in the last 23 years. Point being, it’s very rare that the team making these mega deals doesn’t regret it soon after the ink is dry. Which isn’t to say Ohtani isn’t worth it given the non-performance based revenue he will generate, just from a team on the field perspective I bet the Dodgers regret it before his contract is half over
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It would never work in MLB. No network is going to carry Oakland vs. Kansas City even in a tournament format—not enough interested eyeballs. Thus there would be no additional revenue from Broadcast. There also would be no additional revenue from ticket sales because not many fans are going to decide to pay to see Oakland play Kansas City instead of staying home simply because it’s a “tournament” game. Unlike the NBA and NFL, the MLBPA is too strong and its PR machine is so much better than the oweners’. Thus if there’s prize money to be given to the players, their union will argue the owners have been ripping them off by hiding extra revenue. Then even adding one extra championship game would have to be negotiated with the players union, who 100% would demand additional compensation for that one game. The two sides could barely agree on the covid year and that was simply whether to play at all.
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Probably. A .745 OPS in ‘23 puts him right around 90th overall in league OPS. Plus, even with a WAR of 2.0 in ‘23 his career bWAR is 0 and 1000 PAs is starting to be a significant sample. I get it, he was a big time prospect so there is always the hope and chance he will put it all together; but that’s also tempered with those 1000 PAs where he has shown to be more of a mediocre major league comer outfielder than a blooming star player . As someone else pointed out, the Mariners are taking a calculated risk: if Kelenic becomes the player he was touted to be it will haunt the Mariners. In the short run they cleared 32 million dollars of guaranteed contracts of their books which they can reallocate in free agency, got two intriguing young arms and did not give up any of the top hitters or pitchers from an 88 win team.
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Kelenic got nearly 1000 PAs in Seattle and his career bWAR is zero. At some point, it doesn’t matter if the pundits say a player is a top prospect, they need to play like it.
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Brewers acquire Jake Bauers from NYY
Jopal78 replied to patrickgpe's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Depends what on your definition of “pricey”. I would bet Santana won’t sign with anyone until after Rhys Hoskins finds a new home. Using Hoskins’s salary as leverage and Santana’s own performance in ‘23, he probably looks for 10+ million dollars. While not “pricey” in the grand scheme of things, Milwaukee simply doesn’t go after players at that price often. -
Given the volatility of his hitting, it is a pretty big risk assuming Adames will be QO worthy. That number (the QO) probably approaches 22-23 million dollars next season. If Adames has another down year at the plate in ‘24 he very well could accept that QO as a big multi-year deal would probably elude him.
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That’s a baseball decision to trade for Jake Bauers. If the owner is that involved in baseball ops that he’s dictating individual players to acquire via trade Heaven help us. What is more probably true than not, is the owner sets the budget and the front office builds a team within that budget. Now any calls that the owner is cheap aren’t really fair. First, the Brewers annual payroll when they’ve been competitive with this owner has always hovered in that 90-100 million dollar range. Second, there’s nothing the owner can do when the new CBA all but eliminates compensation for losing free agents, salaries boom to where even mediocre free agents command $10 million dollars a year, and the pre-arbitration contract extension basically dies out with the players. What the Brewers are in is the downside to a success cycle. They built it up, took their shots, now with free agency breaking up their team they have to rearrange and shuffle the pieces and start the cycle all over again.
