Jopal78
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Everything posted by Jopal78
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They need someone on the bench who can play 1B so probably Bauers or Canha will be in the 26 man roster. Unless someone is on the waiver wire they like better for that bench role
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Canha is interesting, from his spring training stats it certainly looks like he’s washed up, would be interesting to know what their internal data says. Plus Canha likely has a multimillion dollar payday if he’s on the big league club.
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Was a pitcher’s duel initially with the Cubs on top, then Imanaga ran out of steam in the 4th. Counsell went to one of his relievers who could give him length and it Ben Brown took a few hitters to find his command in the 5th but at that point three Dodger runs had crossed the plate and the game was essentially over. The professionalism of the Dodgers is kind of impressive. They didn’t have a hit against Imanaga, Ben Brown comes in seemingly blinks for a second and the Dodgers were all over him, scoring the decisive runs.
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The New Bill James Baseball Abstract from the early 2000s had a two sentence summary of Cecil Fielder: A big fat guy who hit a bunch of home runs for a couple seasons. Take out the word “fat” and the same summary could apply to Gallo.
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Depending what the intel is on Woodruff, I could see the Brewers moving Civale before the season starts. Several teams have a dire need for starting pitchers, and the Brewers reportedly tried to move Civale’s 8 million dollar contract once before. As for the deadline it’s been a long time (2018) since your could say the Brewers were aggressive at the deadline. Like most years, I’d expect them to be bargain shoppers again if contending and a fire sale (Woodruff, Cortes, Quintana, Civale, Hoskins, etc.) if they’re not
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Rule 5 to CWS - Shane Smith Discussion Thread
Jopal78 replied to jesusoftheapes's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
What’s the point here? Yeah the Sox were bad last year. That certainly doesn’t mean they will simply stick with poor performing players because they were bad last year. Moreover, walking 4.5 in Spring Training isn’t good. Presumably Smith’s not out there disengaged from results while trying out new pitches; rather with a huge opportunity in front of him he’s trying to perform to make the team. This has been beaten to death. The Brewers left an older minor league middle relief/swing man unprotected in the Rule 5 draft and he got selected. If Smith put up his stat line across 25 starts in the minors; yeah I’d say performance in ‘25 is irrelevant and the Sox keep him at all costs. But a reliever? Even the lowly White Sox are a major league team and subject to anti-tanking measures, so Smith is gonna have to deliver to some extent or they’ll send him back. Simple as that. -
Rule 5 to CWS - Shane Smith Discussion Thread
Jopal78 replied to jesusoftheapes's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
I would assume some degree of competition still matters. They can only roster 26 players at a time and injury and performance always factor into who those 26 players will be unless competition is wholly irrelevant. -
Rule 5 to CWS - Shane Smith Discussion Thread
Jopal78 replied to jesusoftheapes's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
Smith is currently walking 4.5 batters per 9 in Spring Training. At that rate he probably comes back to the Brewers. -
I know it’s blue font, but I was in my early 20s when “Hot In Herre” was big. I’m just curious about the market research that shows this is going to make them extra revenue. Nelly is the kind of act you would expect to see at a Tribal Casino or the State Fair or something like that; so there probably would be some fans that would stick around but I’m not sure how many extra tickets they will sell for people to come out to see Nelly. And is the cost to book Nelly less than it would be for other promos that they know bring fans out like t-shirts and bobble heads? I get Shaq Diesel probably doesn’t have a huge booking fee; but other than the most ardent fans or people with not much else to do, I don’t see much of a draw at all for a DJ Set by Shaquille O’Neal.
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What age group is that? Nelly and Shaquille O’Neal are both over 50 years old and haven’t been relevant musically in years if ever. What do you really expect for a post-game concert that’s free for those who bought tickets to a game?
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Mistake about what? Protecting a 25 year old relief pitcher who’s never played in the majors? I’ve always conceded the fact Smith could make it, but the indisputable reality is the probabilities of him doing so aren’t great. Next, people can throw out metrics all they want, but reality is if Smith was anything why haven’t the pundits who write for a living acknowledged it? On MLB Pipeline Smith is not ranked as one of the Sox’s Top 25 prospects, Keith Law doesn’t have him amongst his Top 20 on the Sox, yet more than one poster here has clamored that Smith is one of the best pitchers in the minor leagues. Somebody has to be wrong….. . As for Milwaukee they’ve got relievers coming out their ears. It’s simply not a spot they’re going to invest an extra 40 man roster spot right now, especially when there’s fair odds Smith gets returned to them anyhow before the end of 2025.
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I don’t much care what a player’s metrics are. The data can be filtered to support any argument one wishes to make. You leave out Smith is a reliever/swingman. If he was a bonus baby as you suggest and pitched as a swingman/reliever in the minors, he’d already be considered a disappointment not the #1 prospect. Sheesh. There’s a reason the Brewers didn’t add him to the 40 man roster. He’s got arm talent but he’s too inexperienced to predict where he winds up in the future, and 40 man spots in Milwaukee are at a premium. Equally important there’s a significant chance he is returned to the Brewers organization anyways. For the 2024 season, 11 pitchers were taken in the Rule 5 draft and 7 were returned to their original organization. For the 2023 season 13 pitchers were selected in the Rule 5 draft and 9 were returned. Over the last two years the odds of any random Rule 5 pitcher sticking in the big leagues are about 33%.
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One of the best pitchers in the minor leagues? Be serious. Smith wasn’t even the best in his own organization last year. He’s not even in the White Sox’s Top 25 prospects, and he’s a swing man/reliever. One of the best pitchers in the minor leagues, ha! Your anecdotal evidence about Erceg also omits he was a position player (3B) in the Brewers organization for YEARS before turning to pitching. Plus, Erceg was never on the 40 man roster and was Rule 5 eligible in 2021 and 2022 and went unselected. It’s a straw man argument and not a particularly good one
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You’re right, if the leash is in fact long. Can a pitcher who hasn’t pitched all that much since high school make the jump from AA to the majors? Even the lowly White Sox won’t keep someone around who can’t perform at the major league level.
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Like I said, time will tell. My guess is a 25 year old man with under 200 total innings pitched since he finished high school won’t be able to keep pace in the major leagues, but it will be a great story if he does
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Of course it is. Just like your opinion he’s a “stud” or was a mistake to leave him unprotected. I do know that Gus Varland had twice as much experience at the same age as Smith, and Varland flopped as a Rule 5. Like I said, maybe Smith has enough sheer talent to get by on a club that was historically bad last year, but the track record for inexperienced Rule 5 pitchers sticking in the big leagues an entire year isn’t great.
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And how many teams are gonna burn a 40 man roster spot on a 25 year old relief pitcher/swing man with less than 200 total innings pitched across seven years? Unless that team has a 40 man roster devoid of talent, not many. Maybe Shane Smith is the second coming of Christy Mathewson, but I kind of doubt it, and believe his rawness/inexperience will get exposed once the game start to count and therefore a decent possibility exists he returns to the Brewers organization.
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Funny, he was an undrafted free agent. He was unprotected because he has less than a full season of innings total since finishing high school 7 years ago. Maybe the White Sox stash him all year because they’re terrible but they won’t if he’s simply not ready for prime time.
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Smith is soon to be 25 and has pitched less than 170 innings total since high school. Unless he’s some sort of pitching savant my guess is his inexperience will catch up to him in the majors when the games count and wouldn’t be surprised if he finds his way back to the Brewers org at some point as simply being too green.
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Then again that’s my point. Voit was a non-roster invitee. When he opted out of the minor league deal, the Brewers gave him a guarantee and he broke camp with the team. you might be 100% right and Alexander doesn’t finish May with the Brewers, but the odds of him breaking camp with Milwaukee are close to 100%
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Nope. It’s a million dollar guarantee. If they cut him and another team signs him for the mandatory minimum, the Brewers obligation would be reduced to the difference between that mandatory minimum and $1 million. But it’s $1 million guaranteed if he makes the team or not.
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I don’t think it’s a Dr. Evil moment. The Brewers act with intent, meaning there is a reason they gave Alexander a 40 man roster spot and a million dollar guarantee. If they wanted to take a flyer on a depth piece they would have done what they did with Canha and Margot and wait him out with an NRI on the table. They gave Alexander the guarantee because they want him on their big league club in 2025. Absent a complete and total implosion on the field; he’ll head north with them in a couple weeks.
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Alexander has more than 5 years of service time, he can refuse being optioned. He gets the million dollars either way. Thus if the Brewers try to option him, why wouldn’t he refuse force his release to try to catch a major league deal somewhere else all while collecting the million dollars. So you’re right, anything is possible. But if you can find an example where the Brewers gave a veteran a million dollar guarantee then cut them in spring training; I’d love to see it.
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Tyler Alexander has a major league deal and no options. The Brewers wouldn’t take a million dollar flyer on a pitcher and DFA him at the end of camp, so Alexander is almost certainly on the team.
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Sure neither Payamps or Perkins is that 26th or 27th best player where their spot on the 40 man roster is in immediate peril. But let’s be honest, Payamps and Perkins are a prolonged slump during the season away from becoming DFA worthy. Look no further than Hoby Milner. He was terrific for the Brewers until he pitched 12 really poor innings during the ‘24 season, and got himself non-tendered as an arbitration eligible player. Baseball can be a harsh mistress for bench players and middle relievers.
