brewerfan82
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Everything posted by brewerfan82
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Welcome MPM! I think White is a depth/wildcard piece at this point. But if the DH is implemented and he has a big Spring, he could get some serious consideration. That said, I think you're correct that they will ideally be looking outside the organization for an upgrade at 1st, moving Rowdy into a backup/DH role, first before banking on White or a Huira comeback to start the season. -
Living in Maryland, I pay for NBA League Pass to watch all the games, but I've actually been surprised by how many game I could get without it (and probably should consider dropping it considering that). 22 of the remaining 41 games will be on ABC, TNT, NBA TV, or ESPN (with only 4 of those being only available on ESPN).
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I agree no one should take the trade simulator site at face value, but to be fair it values both Lauer (9.2) and Houser (19.2) significantly higher than Tellez (1.5).
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More fodder... Steamer projections for the Brewers' projected starters: I'd be very hesitant to move Ashby.
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Yeah it's definitely not easy to get a trade that hits all the marks. - Gallo and Haniger are one year guys (however, Voit's actually got 3 years of control left) - Not sure McMahon and Mountcastle are on teams that would be looking to add major league pitching right now - Kepler and Adell would be interesting possibilities, but I'm not sure how much I want another outfielder until I know for sure the DH is in play I would add, I'm sure we'd be able to regain some of the depth lost with the annual Brett Anderson signing (or similar vet). Although I'd probably prefer some AAA depth that's not blocking Ashby. That said, we're definitely in a position to hold out for a deal that makes sense, so no need to pull the trigger unless someone is overvaluing one guy or the other. Muchacho's take is probably the most prudent approach if we're not overwhelmed with any offers.
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Just to add some fodder to this thread These could provide some loose starting points for possible trade targets involving Lauer or Houser: - Lauer Trades: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/?team_filter=461&s_type=player&s=8676&s_term=Eric%20Lauer&filter=two_team - Houser Trades: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/?team_filter=461&s_type=player&s=8506&s_term=Adrian%20Houser&filter=two_team There are some interesting ones involving previously discussed players like Matt Olson, Luke Voit, and Ketel Marte, but also some new names to consider like Jo Adell, Bobby Dalbec, and Ryan McMahon. They show a straight up trade of Houser for Voit and Gallo as being pretty equal, that'd be possibly interesting if we have the DH (maybe move Yeli to DH, throw Gallo in the OF, and Voit at 1B).
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There is also this tidbit from a Bleacher Nation article before the lockdown went into place, so it's possible the league made it clear after this point that teams should not be talking about trades during the lockdown: https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2021/11/17/are-players-worried-about-backdoor-trade-talks-during-a-potential-mlb-lockout/ According to Passan, the slowness of the trade market this November could be an effort by the teams (coordinated or not) to save all chatter for during the lockout, at which point teams would hammer out deals that would stay on standby until the minute the new CBA is inked. The problem is that this would allow teams to satisfy some of their roster needs without dipping into free agency, further reducing any remaining leverage the players did hold in what was already going to be a shorter period of time after the new agreement. Put simply, a team won’t have to go over the top free agent X if you already traded for player Y. Instead, they can comfortably sit back and say “take it or leave it, because the season starts in two weeks.”
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Yep, you're right! https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kevin-goldstein-fangraphs-chat-12-13-2021/#more-379632 (at the 12:20 mark) So at minimum there's some disagreement on that, but as you said, Goldstein seemed pretty confident they've been told not to.
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Not sure if this has been brought up/clarified already, but I was curious about whether or not trades could still be discussed/negotiated during the lockout (just not completed) and looks like they can: https://fansided.com/2021/12/03/reminder-mlb-trade-discussions-can-still-continue-lockout/ This could make things interesting once the lockout's over: 1.) I wonder if there will be a flurry of trades, and 2.) I wonder if the extra time dedicated to negotiating and checking in with other teams will result in any unusually complex trades Anyways, could become entertaining, and maybe we'll get some leaked trade rumors while we wait for this thing to end!
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Get Voit for Cain+, then trade for Ketel Marte or Bryan Reynolds Not sure what hit the farm system would take, but the big league club would be in pretty good shape.
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Yeah, I think it was one of those situations where you cut your hair too short in one place and then overcompensate cutting it too short in another place and go back and forth until you have no hair... The initial reference to Cain and Voit was too lopsided in the Brewers favor due to Cain's contract, so the idea of Hicks came up as a way to even it out without the Brewers giving up additional assets. Of course, once you add Hicks in, it becomes too lopsided the other way, so the Yanks would probably have to add more talent from their end to even it out, and at that point we're getting too complicated for it to ever happen. But all that said, it generated some interesting discussion. Hopefully another vague rumor pops up soon so we have more discussion fodder to play with
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Valid question, but I would suggest that Voit is less valuable to the Yankees than he might be to other teams because of their available resources. Voit, if healthy, could be a very good player, and at less than $10M, he would be very valuable to a team like the Brewers if he can stay on the field. For the Brewers that may be a better gamble than spending more money for a more reliable player with a lower ceiling. However for they Yankees, they could spend the extra resources to get an upgrade and a more sure thing (like a Freeman or Olson), whereas the Brewers may not have the same resources available to do so.
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Looks like the BTV site (for whatever it's worth) considers Hicks even more negative value than Cain: So maybe you're onto something there. It is a long contract that goes through his age 35 year, but as you mentioned it's probably low enough on a year by year basis to stomach if things go south. And the payroll still ends up lower for 2022 swapping Cain for Voit and Hicks. It would be pretty amazing if DS/MA were able to swap Cain/JBJ for Voit/Renfroe/Hicks and end up with a lower payroll than they started with. And we would have a lot of good options for 1B, OF, and DH... 2019-21 vs. RHP (incl. Cain and JBJ for comparison): 2019-21 vs. LHP (incl. Cain and JBJ for comparison):
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Interesting idea regarding a Cain for Voit swap. I would certainly miss Cain's defense and clubhouse presence, but Voit would be a nice offensive addition with 3 years of control left. 2019-21 Stats: Cain Contract: Voit Contract: So we'd get 5 years younger, gain a couple years of control, add an impactful bat, save $12M+ this year. We'd be getting thin in the OF, but maybe that gives Taylor a chance to take over CF and we'd have some money freed up to acquire some other depth as well. All that said, I wonder what else we'd have to add to Cain in order to obtain Voit.
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Not knowing the payroll restraints, I have no expectation that they'll be able to make a major acquisition. So while another year of hodgepodge first basemen wouldn't be exciting, it wouldn't be surprising. They've done pretty well scrap heaping together the position the past few years with guys like Tellez, Vogelbach, Gyorko, Aguilar, and Thames. Since 2017, those guys have contributed to the Brewers having the 13th best WAR in MLB at first base, and contributed to a team that has made the playoffs 4 of 5 years and totaled the 7th most wins in MLB. So I'm not sure history shows that Stearns values making a splash at first base and he's been able to get by without doing so. That said, it is definitely a position that they could add a real impact bat if they have the resources to do so and I would LOVE for them to figure out a way to get Matt Olson on this team.
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There's certainly the potential for that to be a pretty good group of players. 2018-21 vs. RHP: 2018-21 vs. LHP:
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If Bradley can be traded … why not Yelich too?
brewerfan82 replied to edfunderburk's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
For comparison, here's Yelich's dropoff at this point: Christian Yelich (2016-19, 3rd in MLB in WAR): MAR 3 2020 - Signed a 7 year $188.5 million contract extension with Milwaukee (MIL) Christian Yelich (2020-21, 88 out of 114 in WAR among qualifiers): -
If Bradley can be traded … why not Yelich too?
brewerfan82 replied to edfunderburk's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
It doesn't fit your description 100%, but the whole Chris Davis thing is pretty similar. Chris Davis (2013-15, Leads MLB in HR): JAN 16 2016 - Signed a 7 year $161 million contract with Baltimore (BAL) Chris Davis (2016-20, Last in MLB in WAR among qualifiers): -
True. When evaluating if acquiring Renfroe improves the team from what they would have been without acquiring him, then Garcia is a non-factor, and it seems fairly obvious that Renfroe should be a better option than our current other options, and without raising payroll he was a more efficient acquisition than signing a similar player on the open market. However, in evaluating if the team has improved/maintained the amount of talent/results they had from last year going into the next season, Garcia sets a bar of production that needs to be replaced now. I think Renfroe definitely has the ability to replace that production if his historic low BABIP is shown to be an anomaly. The biggest difference maker now is if they're able to take advantage of not spending that extra money on replacing Garcia in RF and spend it to improve the team in another way significantly. That said, I don't know what the budget constraints are at this point. It could be they need to keep making moves like this one that don't actually raise the payroll, we don't see any significant improvements here on out, and we just need to hope we can ride the pitching staff again like we did last year.
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Just to throw some stuff out there in regards to comparing Renfroe to Garcia... 2019-21: 2019-21 vs. RHP: 2019-21 vs. LHP: So very similar in BB% and K%, but Renfroe has a bit more power. However, the biggest difference is Renfroe's low .250ish BABIP compared to Garcia's high .320ish BABIP, resulting in a higher AVG (and correspondingly higher OBP) for Garcia. If that can be contributed to a bit of bad luck (not saying that's for sure the case) and his BABIP gets closer to a league average of around .300, he could put up some really nice numbers.
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Me too! Heck his initials are HR!
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It's been brought up a lot as one of the items being discussed in the new collective bargaining agreement: Google Results Past Month
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At least they snuck this move in before the lockout. It definitely makes for more interesting conversation than debating the Brett Sullivan signing for the next few months.
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A’s Rebuild on the Horizon?
brewerfan82 replied to Eye Black's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I agree, I'm more interested in Olson, but was just replying to the possibility of getting both guys and what kind of package the A's might want for them. But yeah, just keep Urias, save money, figure out a package to get Olson, and we'd be looking pretty good. -
A’s Rebuild on the Horizon?
brewerfan82 replied to Eye Black's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
They've got Hiura at a net 0 value now. So swap him in for Urias and you'll probably end up getting just Olson for Hiura, Mitchell, and Turang.
