brewerfan82

A challenge! Jk, not really defending how long they kept him on board, but thought it'd be interesting to take a look at "if" they thought his 2022 year was an aberration (at only a slightly above average 108 wRC+) how the previous three years compares to what he's doing this year: 2019-2021: 2024: Just thought that was interesting ;)

Runner was already on 2nd with first base open when De La Cruz came up to bat

I think this is exactly it. This team keeps proving year after year that they're not dependent on any individual. They lost Derek Johnson, they were fine. They lost David Stearns, they were fine. They lost Craig Counsell, they were fine. If anything, I think you need to go back to the sale of the team to Mark Attanasio to find a common thread for the success they've had over the past 15ish years. He's created a culture in this organization that didn't exist for a looooong time before he took the reigns. They've had some ups and downs during his ownership, but there has been a whole lot more hope and fun engrained in the team throughout his ownership than existed (or more accurately, didn't exist at all) throughout the 90's and early 2000's. I know there are a lot of people that aren't fans of MA, but he seems to have done a great job filling the front office and coaching staffs with very smart people that have created the successful organization they have today and I'm certainly happy to have him on board! Addendum: Just for a little more perspective, I did a comparison of the "Bud Selig Era (1970-1992)", the "Wendy Selig-Prieb Era (1993-2004)" and the "Mark Attanasio Era (2005-present)": 1970-1992: 1791 W, 1870 L (.489 W%, 19th best in MLB), 11 seasons .500 or better, 2 division titles (plus two 2nd place finishes), 2 playoff appearances (including a World Series appearance) 1993-2004: 825 W, 1051 L (.440 W%, worst in MLB), 0 seasons .500 or better, 0 division titles (highest finish: 3rd place), 0 playoff appearances 2005-present: 1575 W, 1470 L (.517 W%, 8th best in MLB), 12 seasons .500 or better, 4 division titles (plus five 2nd place finishes), 7 playoff appearances (including two NLCS appearances) Life has been much better since Mark took over :)

Not easily, unfortunately, lol. I used FanGraph's Splits Leaderboard to get the runs scored in each game of the season by selecting "Team" "Batting" stats grouped by "Game": https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards?splitArr=&splitArrPitch=&position=B&autoPt=false&splitTeams=false&statType=team&statgroup=1&startDate=2024-03-01&endDate=2024-11-01&players=&filter=&groupBy=game&wxTemperature=&wxPressure=&wxAirDensity=&wxElevation=&wxWindSpeed=&sort=0,1&pageitems=50&pg=3 I then exported that to an Excel file where I used a bunch of COUNTIFS functions to total up the occurrences of each team scoring each number of runs, followed by some additional formulas to convert those counts into a percentage of each teams' games played and rank them against eachother. 🤓✏️📈

And then he started 12 of 13 games after that including 3 of 4 against lefty starters.

To add to this, I just compiled some of the Brewers' MLB rankings when it comes to scoring different amounts of runs: At least 1 run (94% of teams' games): 14th most in MLB At least 2 runs (85%): 8th At least 3 runs (77%): 5th At least 4 runs (60%): 8th At least 5 runs (47%): 6th At least 6 runs (40%): 3rd At least 7 runs (31%): 2nd While it is true that they are barely above average in not getting shutout, they are solidly top 73rd-97th percentile across the board otherwise, which seems to indicate they're relatively consistent in comparison to the rest of the league (10th smallest standard deviation in their rankings in MLB). For fun, the most consistent team across their rankings in MLB (according to smallest ranking standard deviation) are the White Sox (30th, 30th, 30th, 30th, 29th, 30th, 30th) and the second most consistent team are the Orioles (7th, 3rd, 3rd, 3rd, 5th, 2nd, 4th).

I don't think it's necessary to callout "cherry picking" when someone already outright stated it's "obviously a tiny sample" and the whole point of the post is to point out there's a sliver of hope that the results of an otherwise struggling player may be shifting in the right direction. It wasn't that long ago that Ashby looked like an important part of this team's future, here's to hoping he puts it back together!

Tonight's Phillies lineup (https://www.mlb.com/phillies/roster/starting-lineups) vs. RHP since 2023: Tonight's Phillies lineup vs. LHP since 2023: These guys have really been mashing lefties. The top of tonight's order against lefties is Schwarber (126 wRC+), Realmuto (134), Harper (137), Bohm (136)... I like the idea of having the "starter" miss those guys so he can potentially get through the bottom three times while only facing Schwarber, Realmuto, and Harper twice as others have advocated, but I think I might prefer it be a right handed opener opposed to a lefty (where the top of the order would have wRC+'s of 117, 93, 148, and 106 instead).

Great! Let's go Joey!

Does anyone have a definitive answer on whether or not Ortiz is eligible for a PPI pick? According to the following excerpt he isn't :( From MLB.com article on February 6th, 2024:

I suspect, even though the Hoskins signing occurred before the Burnes trade, that the FO knew they were going to trade Burnes and that allowed for some financial flexibility to offer Hoskins his deal. So it could very well be that you'd be losing both Ortiz AND Hoskins on offense if you undo that trade. At that point it starts getting pretty difficult to "unpull" the trigger on that deal. Now hopefully Hall comes back strong at some point and really nullifies the conversation!

I've created a scientific tool to determine how many runs we will score tonight: https://www.calculator.net/random-number-generator.html?slower=0&supper=8&ctype=1&s=7575&x=Generate It is telling me 3. Hope that's enough!

Fair enough, but the point was the likely results of downgrading from Hader to Rogers for about 20 innings pitched shouldn't have been and wasn't enough to be the main reason the Brewers missed the playoffs that year.

Nope, lol, was looking over the entire stat lines as a whole. Do you disagree with one or both of the statements? Before the trade both were very very good pitchers with Hader being a little better in some areas (K/9) and Rogers a little better in others (half the BB and HR rates), but both with similar FIP/xFIP stats. After the trade both were bad, Rogers had a better K rate, BB rate, ERA, and xFIP, but was bit by the HR bug and you could argue he was equally bad, but that is why I said arguably.

Especially considering the trade included a player in Taylor Rogers that should have minimalized any dropoff in the bullpen. From 2020 to the trade in 2022, he compared very well to Hader: Not to mention Rogers arguably performed "less bad" than Hader after the trade that year as well:

Sounds like you're just blacked out for the Rays/Marlins because of your location. No?

Black's got a little bit of a Pete Rose thing going on (on the field), doesn't he? Love it!

Maybe Belt's ready to sign a $1M, one year contract? 😃

I will concur, the surprising one was VERY surprising, lol. Never would have guessed him.

I think it's pretty ideal if he continues to mash and price himself out of an extension with Milwaukee. We've already got him controlled through his age 29 season. Enjoy his prime years and let someone else pay FA prices for his age 30+ years.

Could be they just like the guys they already have better too. 2021-23: Add a few more guys like Gasser/Rodriguez/Misiorowski from the minors and it may just not have been worth the added depth to them, even at only $3M, for a guy that would probably be expecting a starting job.

Well that's certainly an unfortunate revelation. Someone brought up in the comments that Corbin Carroll signed an extension before the season last year, but since he debuted in 2022 he still earned the Diamondbacks a pick with his Rookie of the Year campaign. Seems like a goofy thin line to walk. Guess we should have brought Chourio up for a game last September just to avoid this situation?

I'm not going to engage in any further discussion on this specific point beyond this post, as I don't mean to derail the thread, I just want to provide additional context, but for those that want to see how the Ohtani signing wasn't a luxury tax dodge, there are some good explanations out there including this piece: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/why-shohei-ohtanis-contract-structure-is-not-a-luxury-tax-dodge.html

I don't have a huge issue with keeping Perkins regardless, but I think Patrick's issue is that Perkins has been told he's made the roster even if Mitchell does as well. So he'd be the 5th outfielder at that point.

A quick google search makes it sound like 6 yrs, $150M: