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brewerfan82

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Everything posted by brewerfan82

  1. brewerfan82
    The Mets didn't land Burnes, but we're getting to the point in the offseason where Alonso is becoming more of a possibility for that Grandal (signed January 14th, 2019) / Hoskins (signed January 23rd, 2024) type pickup. Alonso plus a 3B would put us in a really nice spot. And a switch hitter like Moncada or Polanco would give the team some real flexibility in mixing and matching along Ortiz/Turang/Durbin at 2B/3B/SS. That said, Alonso makes Hoskins a bit redundant and removes DH opportunities for Yelich/Contreras. So MA probably needs to find a creative way to move Hoskins' contract in the case of an Alonso signing.
  2. brewerfan82
    If we're not going to make a splash in the infield, I would throw Donovan Solano's name in the ring for a nice depth piece. He played 26 games at 1B, 1 game at 2B, and 32 games at 3B last year, which would allow us to rotate through all the other infielders by mixing and matching positions. He made less than $1M last year and at 37 years old isn't likely to break the bank again this year. So he's up there in age and isn't a defensive wiz by any measure, but his bat has been pretty darn consistently solid the past 6 years: His projections make him a league average bat, but even if you take his worst numbers the past 6 seasons (.280/.344/.385, 99 wRC+, 0.5 WAR) they all match/exceed the projected .260/.324/.375, 99 wRC+, 0.3 WAR line, so I think there's a decent chance he puts up above average numbers again. Again, not a world beater, but for likely less than $3M, he could be a possibility to help round out a young and inexperienced infield.
  3. brewerfan82
    Here's what Rosenthal said (https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5994597/2024/12/14/mariners-luis-castillo-trade-mlb-offseason-notes/): Seems to be speculation that keeping Turang at second would be a preference, but no inside info that they aren't moving him from there.
  4. brewerfan82
    Possibly but I wouldn't count out seeing some interesting moves yet. Recent notable post-December moves: 2018 January 25th - Trade Brinson, Diaz, Harrison, and Yamamoto for Christian Yelich January 26th - Sign Lorenzo Cain to a 5 year, $80M contract 2019 January 14th - Sign Yasmani Grandal to a 1 year, $18.250M contract (incl. mutual buyout) February 19th - Sign Mike Moustakas to a 1 year, $10M contract (incl. mutual option) 2020 March 6th - Sign Christian Yelich to a 7 year, $188.5M contract extension 2021 February 5th - Sign Kolten Wong to a 2 year, $18M contract March 4th - Sign Jackie Bradley, Jr to a 2 year, $24M contract w/ player option on 2nd year 2023 January 4th - Sign Wade Miley to a 1 year, $4.5M contract 2024 January 23rd - Sign Rhys Hoskins to a 2 year, $34M contract February 2nd - Trade Burnes for Joey Ortiz, DL Hall, and 2024 Competitive Balance Round A Draft pick February 21st - Sign Gary Sanchez to a 1 year, $7M contract (incl. mutual option)
  5. brewerfan82
    Ha, yes, but everyone does understand deferrals don't skirt anyone past any luxury tax punishments or anything like that at this point, right? If not, spend 10 minutes Googling how this works.
  6. brewerfan82
    Just to clarify... here's what Rosenthal said about Durbin/Dunn at third (https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5994597/2024/12/14/mariners-luis-castillo-trade-mlb-offseason-notes/): And what Rosenthal said about Hoskins: I wouldn't leap to the conclusion that the Brewers are planning on Durbin/Dunn at 3rd and actively pursuing to trade Hoskins with no plans to replace his production at first base from that.
  7. brewerfan82
    I don't buy that in an individual playoff game the physics of baseball changes to benefit teams with power more than they do in an individual regular season game. The difference between a good regular season team and a good playoff team (other than dumb luck in small sample sizes) is being top heavy in good hitting and good pitching. A 162 game regular season benefits teams that are deep and not dependent on a handful of impact players. Once you get to the playoffs, the teams with the best starting 9 and top 2-3 starting pitchers have a major advantage. But I don't care if they're the best because they can hit a homerun once every 15 at bats or because they get on base at a .400 clip. I think you could argue the Brewers' recent success comes from being a deep team without many holes, which has lead to a lot of regular season success. That's probably also a more effective way to stay successful without the ability to pay out 100's of millions of dollars for superstar players. So while it'd be great to add power to the lineup, at our market level, that power is going to come with other caveats (low OBP, bad fielding, etc.), so I'm not sure we NEED to add power just to add power, we need to add the best all around players we can and hope that we get some small sample size magic in the playoffs one of these years.
  8. brewerfan82
    Yes, but he was also only 23 years old. If he's not going to breakout in 18 games at the big league level by now, he never will.
  9. brewerfan82
    If they find a taker for Hoskins, I wonder if the Goldschmidt rumors from earlier in the offseason will resurface: https://www.si.com/fannation/mlb/fastball/news/milwaukee-brewers-would-reportedly-love-to-add-paul-goldschmidt-this-winter-after-being-let-go-by-st-louis-cardinals In a vacuum, I'm not sure I'd prefer the 37 year old Goldschmidt over a 32 year old Hoskins looking to rebound, but just piecing a couple reports together to guess what the front office may be thinking. It could be a slight upgrade at first while also freeing up a few million dollars to shore up other spots on the roster, depending on what it takes to unload Hoskins. Hoskins is due $18M this year, plus a $4M buyout for next year (https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/_/id/24355/rhys-hoskins). Meanwhile, FanGraph's crowd sourcing is estimating a 1 year, $14M contract for Goldschmidt (https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker?&pos=1b). 2025 Steamer projections: If you can then use the saved money to grab a couple more guys to shore up the infield (there's a few free agent possibilities out there in Moncada, DeJong, Solano, Polanco, Rojas, and others, in addition to any trade possibilities), you could have an interesting plan in place.
  10. brewerfan82
    This isn't directed at anyone, just thought it was a good time for the yearly reminder that the Brewers are always a late offseason team and I'm sure the Winter Meetings included many discussions that will lead to upcoming transactions. Recent notable post-December moves: 2018 January 25th - Trade Brinson, Diaz, Harrison, and Yamamoto for Christian Yelich January 26th - Sign Lorenzo Cain to a 5 year, $80M contract 2019 January 14th - Sign Yasmani Grandal to a 1 year, $18.250M contract (incl. mutual buyout) February 19th - Sign Mike Moustakas to a 1 year, $10M contract (incl. mutual option) 2020 March 6th - Sign Christian Yelich to a 7 year, $188.5M contract extension 2021 February 5th - Sign Kolten Wong to a 2 year, $18M contract March 4th - Sign Jackie Bradley, Jr to a 2 year, $24M contract w/ player option on 2nd year 2023 January 4th - Sign Wade Miley to a 1 year, $4.5M contract 2024 January 23rd - Sign Rhys Hoskins to a 2 year, $34M contract February 2nd - Trade Burnes for Joey Ortiz, DL Hall, and 2024 Competitive Balance Round A Draft pick February 21st - Sign Gary Sanchez to a 1 year, $7M contract (incl. mutual option)
  11. brewerfan82
    (just a reminder, it's always appreciated to post a link to where you hear any rumors, information, etc.)
  12. brewerfan82
    I was so excited for Krynzel... one of my favorite catches in Brewers history (at the 38 second mark):
  13. brewerfan82
    Well this is certainly an entertaining game, lol
  14. brewerfan82
    Tweaked it a bit for ya ;) Assuming a split does occur, that's definitely the preferred outcome. That said, I have a very uneasy feeling about the Mets in a game 2 must win situation for whatever reason, just seems like it would fit their team lore to lose both of these games even with the Braves sitting all their starters in the second game 😬
  15. brewerfan82
    My preferences for today's outcomes (best to worst): Atlanta wins game 1, Mets win game 2 - Mets have to use whatever resources necessary in both games before facing us tomorrow ⁞ ⁞ Mets win game 1, Atlanta wins game 2 - We still face a Mets team that had to play a doubleheader today ⁞ ⁞ ⁞ ⁞ ⁞ ⁞ ⁞ ⁞ ⁞ Mets win game 1, Mets win game 2 - We have to play the Diamondbacks on normal rest and outside chance of facing the Mets in the NLCS, which is preferable to the outside chance of facing the Braves Braves win game 1, Braves win game 2 - We have to play the Diamondbacks on normal rest and outside chance of facing the Braves in the NLCS, which is less preferable than the outside chance of facing the Mets
  16. brewerfan82
    I'm not talking about the Brewers playing the Braves, which I understand is not possible in the first round. I'm saying I'm rooting for a split tomorrow between the Mets and the Braves and I think the most likely way that occurs is if the Mets win the first game, which will force the Braves to pitch Sale in the second game. If the Mets win the first game, the Braves will pitch Sale (2.38 ERA, 2.65 xFIP, 6.4 WAR, 177.2 IP) in the second game. If the Braves win the first game, the Mets will pitch Severino (3.91 ERA, 4.12 xFIP, 2.1 WAR, 182 IP) in the second game. I'd rather have Sale pitching for the team we need to win the second game than Severino. I agree the best scenario at the end of the day is for the Mets to lose the first game and then use up more of their pitching to win the second game before heading to Milwaukee. However, it feels like a very Mets thing to do to somehow lose both games tomorrow, lol. So just for my nerves, I may be rooting for the Mets the first game as I'll feel more comfortable that Sale and the Braves will take care of business in a must win game 2 than I do the Mets, regardless of the Braves resting all their players in that scenario.
  17. brewerfan82
    If you assume the split, this is true. However I'm not ready to make that assumption and would rather have Sale and the Braves offense vs. the Mets "Sunday lineup" in game 2 than Severino and the Mets offense vs. the Braves "Sunday lineup" in game 2. That said, this is all splitting hairs. Your scenario is definitely the best outcome, but until it happens I'm just much more concerned about the teams actually splitting and not ending up with the rested Diamondbacks than I am about what players the Mets get to rest in game two.
  18. brewerfan82
    Fair enough, but I'm much more concerned about the Mets "Metsing up" that situation, lol
  19. brewerfan82
    I think I'm rooting for a Mets game 1 victory forcing Atlanta to pitch Sale in game 2. Just feels like the safer bet for a split than the Mets losing game 1 and starting whoever they would end up throwing in game 2 at that point.
  20. brewerfan82
    2021-23 Teams with >90% chance of making the playoffs on 9/2: 19 of 20 made the playoffs (95%) In the 37.7% chance the Twins do not make it this year, that would bring the 2021-24 percentage of such teams making the playoffs down to 93.1% 2021-23 Teams with <1% chance of making the playoffs on 8/15: 0 of 35 made the playoffs (0%) In the 36.4% chance the Tigers make it this year, that would bring the 2021-24 percentage of such teams making the playoffs up to 2.2% So yes, outliers happen, but it happens about as often as the playoff odds state they will.
  21. brewerfan82
    It's just a way to keep things in perspective. It's baseball. Every team is going to lose 50+ games in a season, a lot of those losses are going to be ugly, and a lot of those games are going to be against teams you are better than. If you keep winning series, you're both demonstrating you're better than each opponent across a sample size greater than 1 game and you're continuing to win more games than you lose, which at this point will easily secure us a division title as well as keep us in the running for a top 2 seed in the league. So yes, it sucks to lose a winnable game, but it's going to happen from time to time and the fact that we're still winning series shows we're still on track and headed in the right direction.
  22. brewerfan82
    They will if they grab one of the top two NL spots! Only 0.5 games back of the Dodgers and 2 games back of the Phillies. Let's go!
  23. brewerfan82
    Came here to see if anyone else had thoughts on that, lol. Agree.
  24. brewerfan82
    $1.55M. And Ruiz made $0.72M. So the Contreras acquisition increased payroll $0.83M (plus another ~1M for Payamps), while the Winker acquisition decreased payroll by $1.75M. But really, what a silly thing to be arguing, lol.
  25. brewerfan82
    A challenge! Jk, not really defending how long they kept him on board, but thought it'd be interesting to take a look at "if" they thought his 2022 year was an aberration (at only a slightly above average 108 wRC+) how the previous three years compares to what he's doing this year: 2019-2021: 2024: Just thought that was interesting ;)
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