jay87shot

If we were trying to do Peralta for the w prospects straight up it would have been nice to at least get a lotto style prospect as a 3rd piece when we added Myers. That is probably nitpicking but we say what Myers can be in 2024, I'm not sure if Hall or Gasser can quite reach that quality.

Just doing some reading and highlight watching Sproat struggled the 1st half but had a 2.44 era the last 11 starts of AAA. He has a solid 5 pitch mix that will undoubtedly would be improved when our staff adds a cutter. His slider is rated as the better breaking ball however the couple clips I watched the curveball is eye-opening at least as a strikeout pitch. It is in the low 80's and tunnels well with fastball up. The slider looks more 3-9 movement in the 86-90 range. When in the upper 80s it does look like a cutter so I think if he can just throw that like 85-87 with more movement and the get a cutter at 92-94 his arsenal has ace potential. Williams has a very nice swing and the highlights look like there is solid power to all fields. I does look alot like Durbins swing but less lean back hopefully resulting in more line drives and less pop-ups than Durbs. I would guess that he should be a 20 HR guy if he can hit enough. I dont mind having a lineup full of guys who hit 15-25 HR if everyone can hit like .260 with an obp around .340 and steal 20 plus bases and plays above average defense.

I would guess the Sox would be looking for a monster return for Duran. With the losing Bregman (and Devers last year) they have almost no middle of the order bats (Anthony and Contreras are ok but not guarentees). If Duran was gettable there would be some whispers. My guess is that the Sox would want Pratt and 2 other really good pieces.

This is an acceptable return for me, I am not blown away but overall the upside is there and both can help us this year. Williams has a little way to go but is ahead of Pratt at SS and probably a tad closer than Lara in CF (it seems like CF defense is ok). He hit 17 bombs, 7 3B, and 34 2B with a healthy walk rate and great wheels. He is also 5'7" so Murph will love him. If he doesn't win the SS or CF spot he will be one of the best utility guys around. Sproat has the arm to pair amazing with Misi, Henderson, Priester, and Patrick for a long time. With a plus slider and changeup, and upper 90's heater our coaching staff should work some magic. Looking at stats it would seem he needs to find a true strikeout pitch to get to be a top of the rotation starter. Combined 12 years of control should be a solid return on investment. No doubt now that we have the best minor league system in the league.

I think if the Pads were serious on Freddy, I would want all 3 of there arms Schoolcraft, Mayfield. and Mendes. There system is so weak there is almost no value outside of those 3 (maybe Salas), MLB.com ranks Quintana #7 and he was probably like#35 in our system when we traded him. I like the idea of getting in a 3 team deal with if the Braves are interested Rays get Sean Murphy (Braves pay 18 million/6 per year) Braves get Freddy We get JR Ritchie, Luke Sinnard, Brendan Summerhill, Rays competetive balance 2nd round pick As for help this year it isn't great, Ritchie is a solid get and at AAA but needs a little time (not much). Sinnard and Summerhill have really good potential but would be AA or A+ players. The Rays need catching and Murphy makes a lot of sense especially if the Braves eat some $. Not the most high end package but we could get 4 valuable pieces for the 1 year of Freddy.

How much stock should we put into the Southern league being notoriously pitcher-friendly, (.230/.321/.340 league averages) assessing players like Adams, Lara, Wilken, and Pratt? In turn, de-valuing pitchers strong seasons? If you add an extra 20-30 points on BA/OBP and 50 points on slugging for each player they become much different prospect in terms of evaluating the 2025 season. Does the national scouting community put enough stock into ballpark/league differences?

I think Ortiz deserves another shot, I think there is still enough of that prospect potential with the bat to hit like .275/280. Even though that is a big stretch from what we have seen, I do feel there is a path to that and if he can do that he is likely a 5 WAR player. With Mone aboard and Pratt in AAA I don't think I wouldn't give Ortiz a very long leash however, maybe like 100-150 abs before Mone takes over with a 2nd chance later in the year.

Are there any prospect for prospect style trade that would make sense for us? I am looking at the Dodgers who have 24 pitchers ion there 40 man and have had to make some trades like Michael Busch when adding free agents to stay under the 40 man. They have arms like Gavin Stone, River Ryan, Bobby Miller, Kyle Hurt, Landon Knack, Justin Wrobleski, and Emmett Sheehan (Sheehan would cost a bunch more than the others) who don't crack there top 5 starters. Our pitching depth doesn't really need more depth, however something like Brock Wilken for one of those arms would have some appeal to me. We have talked about guys like Dylan Beavers, Ronny Mauricio other Mets IF depth, and more players in a return for Freddy but maybe just trading a prospect for them would make sense. I wouldn't mind something like Bishop Letson for Ronny Mauricio or maybe Logan Henderson for Beavers (probably add in a pitching prospect). The Rays always seem open to wheeling and dealing. They might be a good place to send one of Hall, Gasser, or Myers in camp if our pitching staff stays healthy, they have good organizational depth to get back a nice piece.

I wouldn't be against that, however if I were Fedde there are about 20 teams that he probably would have a chance of making the roster and with our depth and there would likely have to be a bunch of injuries for him to break camp.

I have tried to keep up with additions and subtractions but here is my guesses as to current depth charts. I do think someone had a spreadsheet but I am going to take a stab at it. Let me know who I missed that we signed or forgot, someone I added that we cut, or others, Obviously some positions and placements will lead to some good discussion. AAA AA A+ A C Wood/Miller Dinges Walther/Torres/Diaz Garcia/Corobo 1B Adams Burke Bitonti Montero? 2B Leonard E Garcia Di Turri Dickenson SS Pratt Made Pena Ebel 3B Wilken J Baez? Fischer Ortuno OF Lara O'Rae Payne Anderson OF Baddoo D Brown Josh A H Encarnacion OF Jones/Berroa ???????? Ragsdale T Rodriguez DH/Bench Black EBJ L Castillo Feilder Murray/Zamora Vargas E Martinez/Low Llamada/Irbarguen/Nadal Ereu/Paulino/Flores/Ordonez SP CarRod Hardin Meccage Dorchies SP Crow Letson Knoth Dubaniewicz SP Kuehner DeBerry JD Thompson Tobias SP Hunt M Rodriguez Morrison Renz SP Wichrowski Birchard Melvin H Healy/Episcope SP Fitzpatrick T Smith Woodward Broughton/Owens RP Yoho T Bryant B Johnson Carra RP McGee M Fowler Broca W King RP Baukauskus S Cruz Corniel E Mercado RP Manfredi Seppings A Flores J Flores RP Merkel Hostetler Y Rodriguez W Torres RP Bowman/Holub Aquino/Welch/Garcia Q Low/Hodges Quezada/Meneses RP FA's/Camp Inv. Gillies/Langhorne Reyes/M Mercedes Espinal/Aparicio/H Robinson

I think the Dodgers pay a 110% tax on cap overages so 4/240 turns into 4/504 after taxes. Yes, that is 126 million a year in actual money (probably massive referrals on that). That is likely more (or right around) than our entire roster at the start of the year for 120 games a year of Kyle Tucker. This is just sick, I think the Dodgers have passed the villains threshold.

Kuzma and KPJ for Kuminga and a 1st (protected) Porter is a free agent after the year and even though he is playing well I don't think he is a guy I would invest in long term. Kuminga gives us a young upside true SF that next to Giannis (with a better attitude after a trade) should be a huge add. I like Rollins/Green/Kuminga/Giannis/Turner better than the current 5 just based on matchups. It would also mean less playing time for Trent and Gary Harris, I don't see why Andre Jackson isn't getting some run over those guys it seems like the past couple years having him start or at least be in the rotation has been a positive as a spark plug (Rivers coaching gripes).

I think firing either or both is a bit to reactionary. We are 76-40-1 with LaFluer AND Gutty, I get there hasn't been much playoff success however we only missed the playoffs in 2022 and a couple of those rosters didn't have great talent. I wasn't huge on Gutty's job the 1st couple years but I have been very pleased the past 2 years adding McKinney, Jacobs, and Parson's the past few offseason and have been ok with the past couple drafts outside. Outside of the offensive line decisions (Banks, Morgan, Belton) I haven't been upset with Gutty. LaFluer is on thin ice however after Harbaugh just signed with NYG, I don't see a better realistic option. I will say I would like Mike Tomlin if we could keep Hafley and get in a young creative offensive coordinator but I don't see that happening. I would probably give Lafluer like a 2 year extension (if possible) and if results aren't great next year move on (just take the financial hit) and try and lure Tomlin back or hire the next big candidate (Cignetti or whomever).

With our depth of arms I really like this, Ashby could be an opener for lefty heavy teams. If a starter goes out early, he is a perfect guy to bring in the 4th/5th and get out of a jam, if the backend of the pen is overused he can close. The offer would have to be really good to send him out. I think he is better than Edward Cabrera or at the very least similar value. To send out Ashby we would need to get back 1 big prospect (mlb ready) and a couple solid pieces as well. I can't see the M's trading Emerson away, JP Crawford has 1 year of control left and that will fit well with Emerson's time table. I would think Ashby could be a good fit for a team like the Mets if someone was going to offer a lot for him. He could start there, Stearns would be familiar with him, and they have good prospect depth to wow us.

If DL Hall can even average like 96, I would expect a huge jump from him. I am telling you all 8 man double piggy would be revolutionary.

I agree that it is going to be next to impossible to get a salary cap. I agree on the deferred money as a hopeful rule. I would also like to see a better way of revenue sharing tv money. I think the Dodger tv deal is for 8 billion over 25 years which is over 300 million a year, the Brewers deal is for under 30 if I am not mistaken. I know there is some revenue sharing and baseball is more regional for tv audiences but that is way to big of a gap for my liking. In the nfl and nba everything is pretty much divided evenly as I understand it.

I am just going off the top of my head but how many players in the current system could be in the top 100 by the end of the year? I think Henderson, Yoho, and Quero are the only 3 that will graduate unless there are big injuries. I am going to guess 7. Likely=Made, Pena, Pratt Decent chance= Adams, Fischer, Letson, Josh A. (maybe likely if he will make some top 100s preseason), Dinges Possible=Payne, Burke, Lara, Ebel, Meccage, Knoth unlikely but not crazy=Dorchies, Melvin H., ManRod, Dubaniwiecsz, Bitonti, Thompson, Renz, Tobias, Wilken I am sure I am missing a few possibilities, anyone to add or take off?

What about a 3 team deal. Philly get Sean Murphy, Michael Harris Atl gets Freddy We get Justin Crawford, P Yoniel Curet (philly), P Luke Sinnard (Atl) I think the Phillies are probably happy with Crawford in CF but Harris and Murphy fill 2 holes. The Braves save a bunch of money and get Freddy, maybe sign Harrison Bader or go big for Bellinger to fill in for Harris. We get a controllable high end ready now CF, possibly add in a couple secondary pieces from both teams in 2 big arms

I would guess they would trade Hoerner before Shaw just based on service time. The should get at least a decent mlb arm and possibly prospect for Hoerner.

If I could pick a reasonable package, I would want Spencer Jones, Dax Kilby, and Clarke Schmidt from the Yankees for Freddy. Jones would be the upside prospect piece that could help the roster this year, Kilby is the high upside prospect, and Schmidt is a top of the rotation potential starter with experience when he comes back from Tommy John (all-star break). Schmidt is a risk but has been very good when healthy and even if the rotation is going good could be moved into a late inning relief role depending on his recovery. We don't need arms at the beginning of the year but getting him in June will likely be a huge boost. I am not a huge Jones fan but he does every thing our organization likes other than strikeout way to much. Kilby played really well in A-ball after being drafted, we don't need more MI prospects but he is the high upside minor leaguer I would want as a throw in since the Yanks don't have a comp pick. I still think the Yanks make more sense as a place for Megill over Freddy. The Yanks have Cole, Fried, Rodon, Schlitter, Gil, Warren, Schmidt, with minor league options ready but only Bednar and Doval as high upside but shaky back end relievers.

I think Luis Gil would be an ok start but his control is a big question and his 3 pitch mix is just decent. There are clearly some things to like and moving from NY to MIL would probably be a plus (fans, stadium, coaching). However I would still want 1 more solid piece. I am not a huge fan of the Yankees farm, there are a couple upside arms that are decent and Dominguez or Jones would help the OF but after there top 8/9 it really drops off for me.

Just settle at 9.5 or something, make Contreras happy and since we will likely trade him next offseason the extra for 2027 won't matter much. I do agree that if Vaughn is at 7 whatever that Contreras should be around 10 or more based on career achievements so anywhere in the 9s seems more than fare to me.

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/mlb/article/rob-manfred-floats-mlb-realignment-with-american-and-national-leagues-replaced-by-east-vs-west-034945269.html Sounds good to me, especially now thtat everyone has a DH.

With up to 11 guys who could be starters at the beginning of the year if the team stretches out Ashby and Zerpa I think there should be a couple trades coming by the beginning of the season. Especially since Arnold and co. usually like to add a couple under the radar upside arms by spring. If we don't trade Freddy and my guess is that Woody, Priester, Patrick, and Misi are safe who is most likely to be moved between Henderson, Hall, Myers, Gasser, and Ashby. I would guess the org wouldn't trade Henderson unless it gets a star back since he will be a vital long term piece and getting some more AAA starts won't hurt him. Myers, Gasser, and Hall don't have huge value but I think it would be hard to keep all 3 on the big league roster and having any of them in AAA seems like a bit of a waste. Ashby has some decent trade value but if he can start still has some more upside. We are very good about taxing guys between AAA and getting innings that way, Would something like Gasser and mid-level prospect for Coby Mayo be possibly or maybe an OF Heston Kjerstad since the O's likely have a position player overload. I know both of those guys are former high end top prospects so maybe a different team.

It would feel wrong to be favorite or get any credit from the media at all in the offseason. I listen to mlb radio almost every day for about a half hour and they almost never mention the brewers. They didn't even make on guys top 10 world series contenders list a couple weeks ago.