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jay87shot

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Everything posted by jay87shot

  1. jay87shot
    I can't see us keeping Willy, either he hits like 2021 (.285, 20 hr's in 365 abs) or like last year (.238/.298/.756 30 HR). Either way he either prices himself out of town or his offensive production isn't worth 25-ish million. If we can find a way to extend someone Woodruff makes more sense, using a previous point that solid SS are easier to find than an ace. We have 2 solid replacement options in Turang and Eric Brown (potentially). I would give all the young guys good looks this year and try and get Braves like extensions for Turang, Mitchell, Contreras, Frelick, Weimer, Williams (maybe), Gasser (???). The only way we keep Willy is if we trade Yeli and I can't see us sending Yeli off without taking a big contract and making a Willy extension possible.
  2. jay87shot
    It would be nice to trade Huira for a right handed hitting 4th OF (with some potential versatility). Jo Adell, Ramon Laureano, Sam Haggerty could all be interesting. I am sure there are a couple dozen guys that could make decent sense.
  3. jay87shot
    I would think the Mets would be a good bet as well, they spent a ton of money and have a older staff. If Scherzer or Verlander get hurt the do have a good enough system to get Burnes. Baty would be a good start if he isn't playing great at that point of the year. I doubt we would want Parada or Alvarez but we could turn it into a 3 team deal. Baty, Parada, Mauricio, and Tidwell would be a solid package and we could then flip Parada for something else or just have him and Quero both develop and trade one in the future. We get Baty, German Marquez, Ronny Mauricio, Blade Tidwell, and a mid level Rockies prospect, Rockies get Parada and the Mets get Burnes
  4. jay87shot
    1)Chourio 2)Frelick 3)Weimer 4)Mitchell 5)Turang 6)Quero 7)Gasser 8)Misiorowski 9)Brown Jr. 10) Black 11) Rodriguez (P) 12)Avina 13)Mendez 14)Cruz 15)Cornielle 16)Moore 17)J Hernandez 18)Henderson 19) Wagoner 20)Guilarte 21) Lara 22) Arinamo 23) Junk 24) Uribe 25)Robinson 26)Yeager 27)H Perez 28) E Garcia 29) Devanney 30)Valerio I left off this years list of international signings, I usual like to get back some sort of report from the DSL before ranking new signings. It is amazing how deep our system feels, there are around 20 other players who I would have been comfortable putting into the top 26 or so off my list. (Small, Jarvis, briceno, Wood, O'Rae, Zamora, Adams, Severino, Casteneda, Smith, Middendorf, Knarr, Warren, Rodriguez (OF), and more are hard to argue against as org top 30 prospects)
  5. jay87shot
    Agreed, the FA reliever market has been crazy. Anderson has enough upside with the bat and his versatility to be a big upgrade. Say he plays 3B vs lefties (Urias to 2B) and plays 2-3 times a week in the OF at least to start the year. Anderson can kind of work like Jace last year with Urias going to 2nd.
  6. jay87shot
    I like this signing, with Miller and Toro having options it is fine. As a 4th OF and utility infielder he should be good. We have had good luck with Marlins players and when our players go there they are worse. Players have attributed the batters eye to the improvement. I would think. At least early on I would think he gets a ton of playing time with Urias going to 2B at times and Taylor in CF. He probably can play 1B occasionally as well if given some time in camp.
  7. jay87shot
    If you think about HS School Sophmores all the best players play SS, CF, C, or P. Scouts rarely look at other positions in HS unless the team is absolutely stacked with college prospects. I would guess these international prospects are the same and when bodies fill out and the competition improves some SS become 3B/2B on CF become LF/RF.
  8. jay87shot
    Any one have a good idea for a Red Sox trade? The seem to have hole in the middle of the field SP(health/age), 2B/SS, CF, C. I think there would be a decent chance we could give up some depth and make a nice value trade. Lauer/Houser and Toro/Brosseau/Miller/Keston for Brayan Bello We get long term piece who could be a big asset this year. The Red Sox get depth for a great arm who didn't perform great last year in the bigs.
  9. jay87shot
    I am super interested to see what we do at the deadline especially if we are in a similar place as last year. With the Hader trade disrupting the teams psyche my guess is Arnold may stay away from trading away anyone. I agree, I most definitely purposely undervalued Arreaz in my previous trade proposal. When I said that the future Twins infield is probably Miranda, Lewis, Lee, and Correa I should have mentioned that Arreaz is a perfect utility guy to play all over and DH or allow Correa or other a day of DH'ing. Arreaz would be a perfect #2 hitter behind Yeli, then we would have two high obp. bats to set the table for Willy, Rowdy, and Contreras. To be honest Arreaz is someone I would consider trading Burnes or Woody for (along with others). Burnes for Sonny Gray, Luis Arreaz, Alex Kiroloff, a 5-10 ranked prospect. Then trade Urias, Rowdy, or Winker for prospects, Arreaz plays 3rd, 1st, or DH/Utl/2B depending on what trade benefits us most.
  10. jay87shot
    With the Twins bringing back Correa they have tons of depth on the IF with Correa, Miranda, Arreaz, Polanco, Royce Lewis, Nick Gordon, and eventually Brooks Lee. They also have like 6 good OF options, plenty of rotation options (no real #1 or #2) options, and a solid pen. Long term they might be looking at Miranda, Lee, Lewis, and Lee in the infield. Polanco only has 1 year and Gordon is a high end utility. This leaves Luis Arreaz long term left out. Obviously he would be a nice fit in with us. The problem with a trade is that he is at top value. Rumors are all around with the Marlins and Twins, maybe we could pop in as a 3rd team to smooth out some edges. Twins get Pablo Lopez and Logan Henderson Marlins get Max Kepler, Luis Urias, and Keston Huira (Cash from Twins) Brewers get Luis Arreaz and Caleb Theilbar The Twins get a rotation upgrade, the Marlins get 3 positions offensively upgraded (OF, 3B, and DH), and we get a 3B upgrade and a decent lefty reliever.
  11. jay87shot
    Since most are 16 you have to add an inch or 3 to all those guys. I like the scouting our system has done internationally. Signing big classes with. 2-4 higher rated guys seems like the way to go.
  12. jay87shot
    Not that I know much or do a lot of scouting in advance of the draft here are a few guys that interest me based on mlb.com scouting reports and rankings. P Thomas White Big left-handed HS pitcher, mid 90's heater and lots of room to grow. SS Matt Shaw He is probably one of the safest picks as far as bats go, he may be iffy to stay at short but would be a great 2B if nothing else. Looks like Tyler Black with more power and speed. P Bryce Eldridge 1B/RHP A high school 6'7" kid who throws mid-90's, I like that he can play 1st and pitch. My guess is he has more value as a P and you would start him there and maybe bat occasionally the 1st few years. P Travis Sykora RHP Another big 6'6" 220 pound high schooler with big heat. It seems like our front office likes tall pitchers based on the past few drafts. C/SS/OF Cole Carigg Talk about utility star, managers wet dream. He has advanced hit, speed, and defense tools all around the field. Maybe like a Turang style player who can catch and more OF experience. I always like reaching on a guy like this and signing below slot and then finding the highest ceiling arm later with the saved money.
  13. jay87shot
    baseball reference had him at 5.1 WAR, oWAR 3.7, dWAR 2.2, and my guess would be -0.8 baserunning (couldn't find). I think fangraph just puts there offensive war on the stats page if that is what you looked at but I could be wrong. I agree with you that I would still just go with Turang and not spend the resources on a trade and have it backfire.
  14. jay87shot
    My guess is that panning out would mean being high quality starters. I think all have a relatively high floor because all can run and play good defense. If any of those guys don't pan out I would think they will be like a Tyrone Taylor type player and if they pan out they will be like Lo-Cain value pre 2020. They could all excel as well and be borderline superstars. My guess/hope is one ends up like Taylor, 2 Cain's, and 1 star. I like the idea of seeing if Mitchell can play some 1st base next offseason. Frelich, Chourio, Weimer are all prototypical LF/CF/RF if reports are correct and they continue to develop fully. Mitchell could be a great 1st baseman and 4th outfielder who could swipe a ton of bags and maybe eventually hit for power.
  15. jay87shot
    My guess would be something close but less to what the D-backs got for Varsho. Both were 5ish WAR players mostly from defense with decent but not great bats. Varsho is only a year younger and both have the same control time, however Kim is owed more money. My guess would be maybe a lower top 100 prospect and 1 or 2 other decent pieces, I am sure the Pads are trying to get a good mlb ready player in arby who will help bring the salary number down but help contribute.
  16. jay87shot
    Any ideas on combining some depth pieces for a high quality piece or prospect. The Gregory Soto deal to Philly is my blueprint a couple pieces that don't have high ceilings to a club that needs some depth for a higher end piece. My package from us would include some combination of Brosseau, Huira. Toro, Miller, Small, Houser, some RP, maybe Taylor if we get an OF back. Keston, Small, and JC Mejia to KC for Scott Barlow Keston and Houser to Baltimore for Coby Mayo Keston and Small for to Wash for Tanner Rainey Any other decent ideas
  17. jay87shot
    Agreed, I would say the Marlins are assured to trade a young starter for a outfielder in the near future. With our current pitching depth I would guess there is a smaller chance it would be with us but maybe. Maybe Arbold can work some 3 team magic and sneak in a steal. Any chance the Marlins could be in on Bryan Reynolds he would make a lot of sense for them if the Pirates are off the Soto sized trade demands.
  18. jay87shot
    Agreed, I would say the Marlins are assured to trade a young starter for a outfielder in the near future. With our current pitching depth I would guess there is a smaller chance it would be with us but maybe. Maybe Arbold can work some 3 team magic and sneak in a steal. Any chance the Marlins could be in on Bryan Reynolds he would make a lot of sense for them if the Pirates are off the Soto sized trade demands.
  19. jay87shot
    Cabrera has a upper 90s fb, 93 mph change and solid curve and slider. He may have some injury history but so does Mitchell. Again, I would love to to get Cabrera for Mitchell, I just feel like the going rate for a Cabrera type pitcher is 2 Mitchell type players.
  20. jay87shot
    I would be down with getting a starter, however my guess is that the Marlins want a lot more then Mitchell for Cabrera. Cabrera was a top 50 prospect and turned in a 3.01 ERA in 14 starts. Mitchell was good last year but my guess is that he barely sneaks into the top 100 on a few lists this offseason. The Marlins wanted a package with 3 solid pieces for Pablo Lopez and Cabrera is more valuable in my opinion. Trevor Rogers for Mitchell seems like more fair deal which I would waffle on and probably pass. I would have said Urias might have made sense however they signed Segura for 3rd. Rowdy to the Fish could make sense, if we signed Mancini or had a secondary trade (Yandy Diaz) If we were to get a Marlins starter I think trading Lauer would make worlds of sense. Say Mitchell, Toro, and Logan Henderson for Cabrera (still a massive steal) Then trade Lauer to Balt. and for Coby Mayo and Kyle Bradish (long man, stuff would play up in the pen) Sign a vet OF like Brian Anderson who can play the corners OF, 3B, and maybe even a little 1st or 2nd if need be. I think that wouldn't be to shabby. Still think Cabrera will take a 2nd bigger piece.
  21. jay87shot
    I would be down with getting a starter, however my guess is that the Marlins want a lot more then Mitchell for Cabrera. Cabrera was a top 50 prospect and turned in a 3.01 ERA in 14 starts. Mitchell was good last year but my guess is that he barely sneaks into the top 100 on a few lists this offseason. The Marlins wanted a package with 3 solid pieces for Pablo Lopez and Cabrera is more valuable in my opinion. Trevor Rogers for Mitchell seems like more fair deal which I would waffle on and probably pass. I would have said Urias might have made sense however they signed Segura for 3rd. Rowdy to the Fish could make sense, if we signed Mancini or had a secondary trade (Yandy Diaz) If we were to get a Marlins starter I think trading Lauer would make worlds of sense. Say Mitchell, Toro, and Logan Henderson for Cabrera (still a massive steal) Then trade Lauer to Balt. and for Coby Mayo and Kyle Bradish (long man, stuff would play up in the pen) Sign a vet OF like Brian Anderson who can play the corners OF, 3B, and maybe even a little 1st or 2nd if need be. I think that wouldn't be to shabby. Still think Cabrera will take a 2nd bigger piece.
  22. jay87shot
    I like the idea of trading Lauer now that we have Miley. He has had 2 very solid years and his FIP suggested he is due for some regression. I doubt we could package him with Urias for a solid 3rd baseman (or with Winker/Rowdy for a 1st baseman). Lauer to Arizona for Deyvison de Los Santos would be sweet. Maybe more likely for AJ Vuckovic and Ryne Nelson
  23. jay87shot
    I think trading Keston for a decent reliever with 1 year left could work well. Jake Diekman, Amir Garrett, Jardin Garcia could be solid lefty options and I am sure there would be a handful of righty options. I am worried about our lefty pen situation, Milner was decent but is far from a sure thing to be reliable all year. After that we have nothing.
  24. jay87shot
    I did the math earlier this offseason and if Yeli is a 2 WAR player thru the end of the contract he would be around a -50-60 value. A rough estimate of Tatis (324+112/8) has Tatis at a 55-ish WAR though his contract that is a 4-5 WAR avg. My guess would be that is a bit high, even if the roids weren't a big factor in his success. Making a value on a 12 year contract of a guy who didn't play for a year and is coming of roids in some capacity is impossible.
  25. jay87shot
    What would a Tatis trade look like? The only thing that the Padres need is maybe another stater or some outfield help. Also Grisham and Kim are likely on the block. Tatis (future cash like 40 million/ 10 per each last 4 years) for Ashby, Mitchell, Black, Carlos Rodriguez (P), Hedbert Perez (I get this isn't close to fair value) I don't have a clue where Tatis would even play maybe 3rd. This could be a chance at a Nolan Arenado style steal of a trade. Tatis has grown out of favor in SD and I could see him fitting in perfectly with our young guys and looking for a low key new home. SD owes a ton to Machado, Bogearts, Tatis, and likely Soto eventually (not to mention Musgrove or other impending FA's Darvish, Snell, Hader) Trading Tatis now to extend Soto and others makes sense and we could help by giving them a couple solid pieces for the big league team and rebuild there farm system.
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