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wiguy94

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Everything posted by wiguy94

  1. wiguy94
    Great article Jack. His swing being very janky definitely backs up what my eyes have told me. Hopefully he gets that fixed.
  2. wiguy94
    Moving off of Mears was a no brainer. Even though he has positive fWAR his underlying numbers have mostly been really lousy outside of his FIP. You're unfortunately right about Collins. I think we certainly missed the depth he provides when Chourio was injured but his defense has looked nearly unplayable since the ASB last year. It sucks that Zerpa got injured but we didn't appear to lose much with what we gave up.
  3. wiguy94
    Our bullpen has actually been really good on the year. Top 10 in basically every performance stat. One of the reasons I have always liked using WPA for the bullpen is because nobody cares if a bullpen has a good ERA if they aren't locking down the leverage spots and that has been the issue. Even after tonight the Brewers bullpen is 22nd in WPA at -0.32. Fan appreciation of a bullpen basically correlates directly with WPA.
  4. wiguy94
    Maybe I'm not remembering but seemed like Contreras might have wanted that first one down? I feel like by his movement it didn't look like a pitch that was supposed to be high but missed low. I know Jack wrote an article about how they have incorporated some low fastballs in with Megill with his velo down trying to draw some called strikes because he's not really getting the whiffs at the top of the zone.
  5. wiguy94
    Fine dude. There was nothing wrong with it. Happy? Was this multi-week temper tantrum worth it?
  6. wiguy94
    If I had to guess he might still be set to start on Saturday so was only limited to one inning today as his "between start bullpen". Just a guess though. Could be totally wrong.
  7. wiguy94
    I don't know how long you're going to keep this bit running but this happened because he had a 115 wRC+ when you said he needs to pick it up then you acted like you were talking about his whiff rate not his overall performance after I pointed it out. If I say Mitchell does need to pick it up now will you stop doing this bit every single time he gets out?
  8. wiguy94
    Pretty sure Fischer got ejected arguing a strike 3 call late in the game on Sunday. It wasn't an injury thing.
  9. wiguy94
    I imagine you will see Bauers or Yelich in LF so Vaughn can play against some RHP. Probably not worth it today with Sproat on the mound. Might need to value the defense but with Misiorowski or Harrison on the mound you could probably go a bit lighter on the D
  10. wiguy94
    He's baaack!
  11. wiguy94
    Angles matter just as much as exit velocity. Lara hits the ball slightly harder but the vast majority of his hard contact is on the ground. Lara has 51 hard hit balls on the year. Of those 51, 28 (55%) have negative launch angle. Hitting the ball harder is good but if that contact is just being smashed into the ground it doesn’t really mean much. Sweet spot rate is rate of batted ball between 8 and 32 LA. This is the ideal launch angle to hit a baseball for maximum damage. Lara on sweet spot batted balls has a 95 Avg EV and 61% hard hit rate compared to Ewing’s 91 Avg EV and 43% hard hit. In that regard Lara looks much better but the difference is Lara only has only hit 23% of his batted balls on that angle compared to Ewing’s 56%. That’s why Ewing’s contact quality and underlying numbers are far above Lara’s. It’s an angles issue not an EV issue. Lara has a .285 xwOBACON compared to Ewing’s .427. Here are a couple MLB players with similar xwOBACON to Lara this year - Spencer Horowitz, Luke Keaschall, Sal Frelick Here are a couple MLB players with similar xwOBACON to Ewing this year - Brandon Lowe, Ronald Acuna, Brandon Nimmo
  12. wiguy94
    Ewing has hit the ball on much better angles than Lara. Avg LA is 16 to Lara’s 9. Barrel rate is 12% to Lara’s 6%. Those two things lead to his expected slash absolutely dwarfing Lara’s. Ewing - .319/.386/.577 for a .412 xwOBA Lara - .222/.336/.348 for a .312 xwOBA Basically Ewing’s contact quality has been substantially better than Lara’s.
  13. wiguy94
    Was curious so I looked and his underlying numbers have been way better than Lara’s down in AAA.
  14. wiguy94
    Antunez had a second 114 EV batted ball only to be outdone by Frias who had a 117 EV batted ball
  15. wiguy94
    Antunez just hit a 114.6 EV tank off a hanging slider
  16. wiguy94
    Interesting comparison and I definitely understand the logic. I feel like it's not as simple of a comparison though because I don't think NFL draft picks especially the early round ones need as much development as an MLB draft pick needs. If you draft a pass rusher in the first round of the NFL draft the expectation is they should be day 1 ready to make an impact. MLB draft picks have a much lower rate of success than the NFL with a lot more development needed. That's what makes me wonder if it would be better to invest the money into profiles the Brewers have shown to be really good at maximizing then targeting power through trades where you can either trade for prospects that are closer to MLB or trade for current MLB players. I don't think there's a right or wrong answer. I just think it's an interesting thought experiment. I think we all agree that some power influx is much needed. We just have different ideas of what is the best way to get said power.
  17. wiguy94
    Brewers in general are a very passive team. They have the lowest swing rate in MLB at 43.1%, second lowest in zone swing rate at 62.3%, and the lowest chase rate at 25.3%. Though interestingly the Brewers have seen the third fewest 0-2 pitches this year at 363. It does move up to 6th fewest by percentage of pitches at 6.1%.
  18. wiguy94
    Mitchell definitely cannot afford to fall behind in counts with his glaring whiff issues. As you'd suspect most hitters have big splits when ahead/behind in the count but Mitchell's splits are super extreme. Ahead - .370/.653/.630 Even - .195/.195/.244 Behind - .108/.105/.162 He just really can't afford to get behind in counts and lately he's been falling behind in the count too often. He's been even more passive with his swings in May than he was in March/April despite the percentage of pitches in zone he's seeing jump from 48 to 56 percent. It's no surprise that has coincided with a big offensive slump from him.
  19. wiguy94
    I agree those four players should get very long leashes but that's not really the question I was asking. I'm asking if we have seen enough development from those four to continue to heavily invest bonus pool into these type of prospects. These four guys have combined to account for about 28% of the Brewers bonus pool the last three drafts especially when the Brewers have shown to excel in developing more contact oriented profiles and pitchers.
  20. wiguy94
    Have we ever gotten an update on Luke Adams? Did I imagine someone saying he has a hand injury?
  21. wiguy94
    The juiced ball in the minors (AA and below) is seriously warping typical offensive numbers. This is pretty crazy. Hard to take any of these hitting and pitching numbers seriously at this point.
  22. wiguy94
    Lara switch hits. Also Perkins has been solid against LHP both this year and in his career. People are getting way too down on him. He’s perfectly fine as a bench OF who is only going to get at bats against LHP going forward.
  23. wiguy94
    I would venture it's partially that they don't want him to come up to sit (especially because he's not already on the 40) but also he's way overperforming his underlying numbers in AAA so far so they might also just not believe the production would translate to MLB. Nearly half of his batted balls this year have 0 or negative LA. Tonight he had 3 batted balls over 100 EV and every single one of them was negative LA.
  24. wiguy94
    Judge honestly played that pretty poorly. I think if he gets behind the ball better that he guns Rengifo at home there.
  25. wiguy94
    I came into this series just hoping not to be swept against the Yankees lineup with their big guys on the mound. Instead we are heading into Sunday with a chance for a sweep.
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