I feel like ZiPS, Steamer, PECOTA all really struggle at properly valuing speed, defense, and bullpen pitching which are the three things that carried the Brewers this year and typically speaking defense and bullpen have always been a strong point for the Brewers since 2018.
The defense gets the pitching to overperform their peripherals. The bullpen gets the team to overperform their run differential (most times). Speed can help an offense overperform their middling power and relatively average hitting.
Like it's just an example but currently Turang's 3 year ZiPS projections have him averaging 21 SB over the next 3 seasons with 4 CS when Turang just stole 50 bases with 6 CS.