Jake McKibbin

Yep, can spend 150k base line, anything over that counts against the bonus pool

On Friday night, Corbin Burnes looked every inch the version of himself we expected this season. He notched his first double-digit strikeout performance of the season, totaling 13 over the course of six innings, including a hat trick for Elly De La Cruz. Image courtesy of © Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports Having gone cutter-heavy (over 70%) in his last outing against the Cincinnati Reds, Corbin Burnes used it just 45% of the time on Friday, instead relying more heavily on his curveball (29%) and (the third time through the order) his changeup. The breaking pitch was on form, averaging over 54 inches of vertical break–something I’ll come back to in a moment, as it’s key to how he’s used the pitch this year. A big change for Burnes was how he used his cutter in this outing, noticeably going much higher in the zone, and getting rewarded for it, with not a single hard-hit ball against his cutter all day. (In fact, the Reds had just one hard-hit ball against any of his pitches.) Hitters have been doing a lot of damage when Burnes leaves his cutter over the heart of the plate, and (because they’ve been sitting on it, and spitting on other offerings that usually dip out of the zone) he’s been having real trouble racking up strikeouts. His outs have mostly been generated from ground balls, something with which he did excel in the last two years, due to the prolific movement on his cutter down in the strike zone. Going very cutter-heavy in his recent starts against the Reds, Guardians and Pirates while using the upper part of the zone is an effort by Burnes to address the predictability of his pitching. This time, however, the crucial ingredient was his curveball, and how he used it off his higher cutter. By playing off the pitch up in the zone, Burnes could keep his curveball in the strike zone for longer, starting higher, and thus forcing hitters to make decisions far later. When playing off the cutter down in the zone, the curveballs looked far less competitive and were out of the zone far more often. Our Tim Muma identified the need for Burnes to use more of the zone way back in early April. In June and July, Burnes’s curve has been in and around the edges of the strike zone 41 percent of the time, up from 32 percent in May. What this has done is made these pitches more relevant to hitters, and as such, improved the chase rates against them massively, allowing Burnes to be more effective at putting away hitters in two strike counts. Looking at the above graphic, it’s clear to see the chase rates on the curveball and changeup in two-strike counts have drastically increased in July, and will be key to Burnes’s effectiveness moving forward. Even when chasing the changeup, hitters are generally making some form of contact, but look at how the usage of these pitches in two-strike counts has impacted the whiff rate when chasing his other pitches in two-strike counts. By having a pitch like his curveball, which hitters chase over half the time in two-strike counts, and on which they whiff over 75 percent of the time on those swings, Burnes is able to wreak the kind of havoc we all expect from him. On top of this, you can see how the whiff rate on the cutter has also gone up massively, and by varying his location, he can prevent hitters from getting quite so locked in on his approach and make them a lot more uncertain in the batter’s box. Burnes has been mightily effective when he gets ahead in the count all year, but due to a lack of chase outside the zone, he’s been struggling to get ahead as consistently as in the past. Hitters have a .465 on-base percentage when they get ahead in the count, and a .925 OPS. Since May, however, he’s staying in the zone more often with everything except the curveball, with his zone rates rising by at least 15 percentage points on each of his slider, changeup and cutter. He’s being more aggressive, and it’s showing results with his cutter, especially in terms of the damage done against it. The expected slugging average against his cutter was .527 in May, but has dropped to .373 in June and .341 in July. The variety in his approach caused a called and swinging strike rate (CSW%) of 35%, on top of a 33% whiff rate against the cutter, something we haven’t really seen all season long. If this can be maintained, we have Cy Burnes back in business. View full article

Pending cost is the key point, in that I feel he will be massively overpriced based on a fortunate first half of the season. Can't argue he'd improve the Brewers but based on the talent in the system, is it worth it with the risk of him being Dodgers Bellinger? Pete Crow-Armstrong may not have been top 100 as a result of injury, but he was 19th pick out of a high school in 2020 draft (with no minor league games) he was however always considered a premium defender providing a substantial floor to work from. Black doesn't have that EBJ is closer to it, but again not quite there

I'd happily do this, but I've a feeling with in demand for an impact from a few teams, especially the Yankees, he'll likely garner over the top offers. He may hit or miss, and we'll see I guess Out of curiosity, if he had a guarantee of .800 OPS and premium defense, what would you trade for him?

EBJ isn't a bad comp, but only if he was a truly elite shortstop. Tyler black is hitting better but with no defensive home which isn't a bad comparison for my money, though I see what you think. Maybe Luis Lara is the ideal fit but even then theres a potential for a very good player He'd be a lot better but for what he'd cost I don't believe it's as good as we think... Heck I'd take a trade for renfroe and the reduced cost of that ahead of Bellinger @wiguy94has summer my view well but I can absolutely see where you're coming from. A two month Bellinger hot streak would be a big bonus. A lesser Bellinger is quite useless, and either could be what we get

@Smichaelis9was it you mentioned on MKE tailgate about estimated figures for Bitonti and Pratt? Can you remember what they were?

Jackson ChourioJeferson QueroRobert GasserMike BoeveJacob MisiorowskiSal FrelickJosh KnothCooper PrattTyler BlackCarlos F RodriguezAbner UribeBrock WilkenLuis LaraEric BitontiEric Brown JrYophery RodriguezJustin JarvisRobert MooreHendry MendezDaniel Guilarte

As the trade deadline approaches, there are some players out there who look on the surface to be perfect for the Brewers' needs, but who might come at a costly price that exceeds their true value. A lucky first half isn’t worth throwing the farm system into chaos; let's see if we can separate the hype from the real deal. Image courtesy of © David Banks-USA TODAY Sports Cody Bellinger – CF/1B Bellinger provides premium defense in both the outfield and at first base, two areas where the Brewer could use a potent bat. His fortunes have followed quite closely with those of Christian Yelich, but (as Yelich is in Milwaukee) he has been having a big bounce back season with the Chicago Cubs , recording a .308/.365/.523 slash line for an .888 OPS. Sounds like a big addition, perfect for the Brewers needs and likely to sign elsewhere for next season, meaning it’s a simple two-month rental. What is he likely to cost? In 2021, the Mets acquired Javier Baez (who was showing power, defensive skills, and a relatively acceptable OBP by his standards at that time) and Trevor Williams from the Chicago Cubs, a pair likely equal in value to Bellinger. The cost was Pete Crow-Armstrong, the 19th pick from the 2020 draft, likely to be the starting center fielder for the Cubs next season and one of the best defensive prospects in baseball. We’re therefore looking at a mid- to late first-round pick in terms of value for the services of Bellinger--potentially something such as Tyler Black + an extra. Why is it a bad idea? Well for starters, take a look at his Statcast page. It's not pretty; Bellinger has been the third-luckiest hitter in baseball in terms of his weighted on base average compared to his expected numbers, and is due for massive regression. He's on a hot streak at the moment, which may make him even more appealing, but there is a big potential for this trade to flop in the Brewers' face. He isn’t hitting the ball hard with any regularity and doesn’t have a great walk rate. Tyler Black himself may be as good a shout to cover first base while providing lefty power and on-base skills. Bobby Dalbec – 1B Dalbec has been on fire for the Red Sox' Triple-A affiliate this season, hitting .306/.419/.655 for a 1.074 OPS. The Red Sox are still in contention for the playoffs, but Triston Casas has been their first baseman and seems locked into the role now, with a .937 OPS over the last 30 days, making Dalbec a potential trade piece. They also have Justin Turner able to fill in more than adequately if needed, with his bat also a big boost for the Red Sox this year. What is he likely to cost? Given that the Red Sox have eyes on sneaking into the playoffs this season, there is a chance they would want MLB-ready players in return, potentially in the form of the currently underperforming Sal Frelick (though that is a bit lopsided), or some quality relievers, maybe an Elvis Peguero. On the surface, getting a big first baseman for a reliever looks like a good trade for the Brewers, right? Why is it a bad idea? Welcome to Keston Hiura 2.0, only he’ll strike out even more often. Dalbec hasn’t shown an ability to hit at the major-league level, and he currently has 95 strikeouts in just 279 plate appearances for the Worcester Red Sox, a whopping 34% K rate in Triple A. That would likely climb into the 40s, should he have to face major-league pitching. You’d be better off just promoting Hiura. Carlos Santana – 1B Santana’s stats don’t jump off the page, and he is likely a fairly cheap acquisition. He provides premium defense at first base, with his 77th percentile Outs Above Average. He’s quite the consistent performer, too, with considerably above-average chase rates, walk rates and whiff rates, providing a solid floor for him. What is he likely to cost? Santana could be quite cheap, in the sense of a prospect ranked somewhere between 10 and 20 in the Brewers organization. The Pirates may want a catcher with hitting potential like Matthew Wood, or maybe a Robert Moore could do the deal (I’m not as high on him as some). Why is it a bad idea? At 37, Santana’s hard-hit percentage has dropped from over 40% in the last two seasons to just 34.4% this year--a sizable drop, though he is elevating the ball more often. His xBA of .240 is an improvement in some ways, but he's shown minimal power, with an xSlg of just .359, and the Brewers again may have more options in-house that should be able to provide an OPS of .700, albeit in different ways, such as Hiura or Black. TLDR There are options out there available to the Brewers, but some of these are very risky, and given the improving farm system, the talent within and the closeness to a rebuild (of sorts) with very different trades looming this offseason, it doesn’t make a lot of sense to sell the farm for players such as the above, given what they would cost and how likely they are to have limited effect down the stretch. If you want a player who can get hot and actively carry an offense, the Brewers may in fact have those available in their system already. They haven’t had a lot of support in terms of the farm system reinforcements over the last few years, but that may change this season, and betting on themselves might be the best route for success. View full article

He haasn't officially signed yet, and to be fair we haven't seen him in the minors at all yet. A good prospect but tough to include him as part of the farm just yet Also Cooper Pratt likely to move there too, could have a plethora of infield quality in no time

He hasn't shown the high quality contact so far post injury, or actually he did but not so much the last week or two. Hopefully some big games and they can make use of him after that, but he'll definitely need a little confidence in his swing

There was a potential for the giants and Red Sox to be out of it by now given the divisions strength they're competing in and slow starts, but they've come back hard and both teams had a plethora of players that would have been highly valued at the deadline. It's really impacted the options available, now Giants are ahead of the Diamondbacks, and Brewers aren't far off the Dodgers record either with their pitching struggles

He's also monstering balls to opposite field. He takes fastballs to opposite field with massive power, and turns on the off speed, it's really impressive. His last issue will be learning to lay off pitches and when to take his walks, but he really seems to have grasped the strike zone, and his contact skills have improved massively as shown by his strike outs dropping at a rate of knots over the last month or so

Im hoping he's a relief arm used until Mikey's next start ( as in 5-6 days) and that could mean we get Gasser. Fingers crossed anyway

Of course! I was trying to find something that suited both needs, an MLB for MLB trade and fix both teams needs (while factoring in vottos contract, though I think there's rumours the only place he would go is the Blue Jays in Canada) With CES and Spencer steer both rookie's, I can see a chance for a Votto trade there, but obviously unlikely for Brewers

Desperate times call for desperate measures. The Brewers’ first base situation is certainly desperate right now. Let’s talk measures, baby. Image courtesy of © David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports The Milwaukee Brewers received news that Rowdy Tellez could be out for up to a month, having broken his finger shagging flies during batting practice, a truly freak injury. That being said, he was performing poorly over the last couple of months, anyway, and the Brewers could do with a significant upgrade at a position that should be occupied by a quality batter. Owen Miller, after a hot streak in May, has cooled off considerably once pitchers worked out not to throw high and tight to him, and is more valuable as a versatility option or to face left-handers than to be an everyday first baseman–meaning the Brewers have a pressing need. The Cincinnati Reds have just called up Christian Encarnacion-Strand, who has been tearing up Triple A and is more than ready for his opportunity at the major-league level. With a plethora of quality hitters (particularly in left field and first base, meaning Spencer Steer will likely rotate between the two), there is a possibility that Joey Votto represents a surplus to requirements in the state of Ohio. Trades between divisional rivals seem impractical, but there’s the potential that both sides benefit from a trade of a higher-quality back-end starter than what the Reds currently have for the high-priced contract of Votto at first base, who isn’t quite the force he once was. Votto’s current line looks good, with a .951 OPS including a .351 on base percentage, as well as being a quality veteran presence. He’s hitting the ball at an average of 91.3 miles per hour, with an 11.7% walk rate (albeit an inflated 29.9% strikeout rate), and he’s slightly outperforming his expected numbers so far (in a small sample) this season. That being said, he’s a fairly reliable .800 OPS hitter when he’s healthy and fit. He has an expected slugging of .711 on four-seam fastballs, and could be a potent hitter vs right-handed starters, really making a potent top of the order with William Contreras, a fully-firing Willy Adames, and Christian Yelich. One thing you can’t do is fall behind in the count, because once you’re in a fastball count to Votto, he will do damage, and a pitcher who can’t land his breaking pitches for strikes will struggle. The 39-year-old has limited range but very good hands at first base, likely more reliable there than Owen Miller and certainly more of a cleanup hitter. While a big addition (especially if he hits one of his hot streaks), he’s not the Joey Votto of old, and that brings his price down substantially, on top of the $10-million salary the Brewers would have to pay over the balance of the season if they got him at the deadline. The Reds are in dire need of pitching, given the poor performances of the likes of Brandon Williamson and Luke Weaver and injuries to both Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo. So, it depends entirely on what the Brewers are willing to give up, and how the Reds stand in terms of contending at the deadline. You would imagine that they would take Wade Miley in a heartbeat, but alas, he’s just hit the 15-day injured list with elbow discomfort. Could the performances of Colin Rea or Julio Teheran be acceptable for them? The Brewers also have Robert Gasser waiting in the wings, having worked out his command issues from earlier in the season, and he’s striking out batters in high numbers in Triple-A Nashville, ready to fill a slot should the Brewers need him. Gasser himself would be much more appealing to the Reds, of course, but the Brewers might be as reluctant to give him up for an aged Votto as the Reds would be to give up Votto for a fungible starter. The other thing the Reds need is some form of offensive catcher, a position they have almost no production from, and you could add someone like Alex Jackson to sweeten the deal. What would you be willing to trade for Joey Votto? View full article

Cracking start against the high flying LAD bautista team, 6-2 after top of the third. Ibarguen with 3 RBI's and Di Turi inevitably putting balls in play

Making me do some research! Brent Rooker Keston Hiura Spencer Torkelson Adley Rutschman Pete Alonso Josh Jung Obviously a lil hit or miss, but potential for big bats is there! That's just a cursory glance, other prospect huggers will know far more tbf

Absolutely on the defensive front, but isn't EBJ's arm a question for long term short stop? And might grade out better at second base (albeit a very effective one)? It's certainly interesting, but if you gave me either for a first round draft pick, I'd go Wilken and not bat an eyelid (although I do like people who can make an impact rather than just "get by" at the major league level)

I'm actually really excited to see Wilken, certainly a bit under slot but also has the power tool that if he can (per scouting reports) develop an opposite field approach for those pitches on the outer part of the plate, and with his arm, he could be a big difference maker down the line too. Definitely a different feel to EBJ who let's be honest, never really had a standout tool that screamed first rounder

They got him as cover for Anthony Rendon from the Mets i think

Knoth said he got the extra velocity this season because it was his first with a pitching coach... this sounds like there's a lot of room to grow, can really see why the Brewers went for him over Charlee Soto

Mike Boeve looks very under slot potential too .. this could be some steal from the Brewers