Jake McKibbin

Voit has looked decent to me so far this season, certainly made plays last night that keston and rowdy wouldn't, but also barreled up some balls well, just not hitting the gaps. He could be a trade option for Phillies potentially but even so I like his production so far and is currently outperforming winker

Giolito's last outing was sharp, and you wonder if White Sox might dangle Cease as well for a big return Chapman seems to be going well, and undoubtedly some playoff team will take a look at him Not quite sure about big name hitters on the block from these teams

Good news... Wiemer and Contreras have been mashing lefties Bad news... rest of the line-up

The starter ERA's on both sides of each of these match-ups is insane.. why has starting pitching looked so damn good so far this season?

Tyler Black's arm looks very far from reliable. A couple of hops before a routine play from third, and miles off target. First base did well to block it

To be fair to Detroit, some of their hitters numbers have been far lower than their expected stats. That being said, last night's loss, and in particular Lauer's pitching performance, hurt. He looked sharp in first two innings, but we're not quite getting those key hits we did earlier in the season, or getting men on base at the same clip. Couple of good news stats Owen Miller has a ridiculously low whiff rate of 12.7% Lorenzen has been barreled up to the tune o f 15.4% of his BBE's.

I can't see Perkins being kept up long term, especially if he keeps being asked to bunt his PA's away (not a great sign). Taylor will need some ramp up time but hopefully he can be an above average contributor again. So much promise in Mitchell, kind of reinforces that Wiemer is staying around and learning at MLB level. Still hasn't found his sweet spot yet but his AB's are getting better, I'm sure we'll see a hot stretch at some point

I think there is an element of predictability. His first inning was unlucky with infield hit, but he is definitely struggling to miss bats more than usual with his cutter

The Brewers keep winning games, and the numbers behind their sparkling record are as encouraging as the victories themselves. Here are nine notable areas in which the data says their success could continue. Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports Willy Adames The most popular criticism of Adames coming into the season was how little he walked, with his approach favoring happy-go-lucky over cautious calculation. However, so far this season, he’s in the 84th percentile with a walk rate of 14 percent. Adames talked on Tuesday about how he wanted to improve in this area, setting himself a target of 70 walks this season (his previous high was 57). He hasn’t quite found his timing with the bat as of yet, so his quality of contact is down, but we know when Willy gets hot, he can carry this offense. Christian Yelich’s Underlying Metrics So far, Yelich has posted a mere .247/.326/.388 slash line, resulting in a .714 OPS. However, he’s currently in the 96th percentile for hard hit balls, with 57% of his balls in play over 95 mph. His expected batting average, based on his contact rate and the speed and trajectory of his batted balls, is .274, and he has hit into some bad luck so far this season with some roped line drives. We all want to see Yelich pull the ball in the air more, but given his inconsistent patches so far, there is a feel that he’s tinkering with his swing, and as such, that he can manage a more consistent performance in the latter half of the season. William Contreras Catching Barrels and Strikes Contreras has missed just 10 pitches in the strike zone so far this season, on top of which, in eight of the nine areas in the zone he has an average exit velocity around or above 90 mph. The only area he’s really struggled is the slider down and away, with six of his 12 strikeouts low and away, but he has shown himself to be a far more adept bat-to-ball hitter than we expected. He’s also in the 77th percentile for framing metrics, a huge improvement on last season, and something of which the Brewers’ coaching crew can be proud. It’s important to note that Contreras' work ethic and dedication likely played a big part in this turnaround too, as well as his athleticism. Hoby Milner Milner is in the lowest percentiles of both fastball velocity and fastball spin rates, yet somehow he is in the 92th percentile for average exit velocity allowed, inducing on average hits of 84.3 mph. He’s given up just six hits so far this season, and none of his individual pitches have been hit hard so far, using each of his sinker, curveball and changeup to great effect. And yet…. Joel Payamps Payamps has gone one better than Milner, with opponents managing only an 81.5 mph average exit velocity. That’s in the 98th percentile among all MLB hurlers. He struggles to generate many whiffs and strikeouts, but he avoids barrels at a strong rate, and with the current Brewers infield, Payamps and Milner are absolutely deadly. Our Supreme Closer Devin Williams may be the leader of the cardiac crew, but his stats underneath it all are the sound vitals that make the occasional palpitations livable. No one has generated more whiffs per swing than Williams, with his change-up having a 50% whiff rate, and the fastball a 47% figure. He has allowed just a .063 expected batting average on his heater, due in large part to his extension off the mound, and his above-average movement both vertically and horizontally on the pitch. We’ve seen a lot of hitters so far this season sitting on his changeup, resulting in a lower chase rate than Williams is used to, but he’s taking advantage of this and peppering the zone with his fastball. He has the lowest xBA, the second-lowest xSlg and the best strikeout rate in the major leagues. He also seems to have ice in his veins, but I can’t find any stats to back that up. Wade Miley If you asked anyone what the best you could hope for from Miley coming into the season it’s probably along the lines of “limit hard contact and hope for the best”. Well, Miley has come through and more, with a 71st-percentile hard-hit rate allowed, while also being stingy with walks (85th percentile). On top of that, he’s nipping in and around the shadow area of the zone so much that he’s forced one of the better chase rates in the Brewers pitching corps, with his slider generating a 42.9% whiff rate. Team Defense Per Fielding Bible, the team’s defense so far has saved 25 runs, eight ahead of the second-placed Diamondbacks. The outfield alone has 10 Defensive Runs Saved, and has contributed much to the improved consistency of the Brewers’ performance this season. The Garrett Mitchell absence could be felt heavily, but Joey Wiemer is a strong defender in his own right. Sal Frelick Frelick hasn’t had the ideal start to the season, struggling to avoid weak contact in his current slump, although he did break out slightly with a three-hit game before his thumb injury yesterday. However, he has just a 12.4% whiff rate, and swings at pitches outside the zone just 14% of the time so far, so even in his slump, he’s a really tough at-bat for opposing pitchers. No doubt, we’ll see the consistent hard contact return at some point this season to add to his sublime contact skills. View full article

Unfortunately it's as I thought, it's such a shame but he's likely hurt his rotator cuff on the slide, which causes the subluxation and damaged labrum on the throw. He needed the AB's to sharpen his approach and this must be gutting for gim

If it's happened as I suspect, injuries to rotator cuff can be sharp then ease off quickly enough, or feel like you can play through them. It turns out the injury is to the left arm, which would have less torque going through it at least. But I would maybe have expected they take him out at that point given his injury history and how niggly shoulders can be, and it may have huge consequences for his career I think Mitchell seems to do a good job of not chasing pitches too often, it's the swing and miss which seems incredibly high. you'd think with his speed any sort of contact has potential for a base hit. Even if he could create a really shortened two strike approach and swing for the fences early in counts

Garrett Mitchell’s speed bought the Brewers a crucial run at the top of the 10th inning Tuesday night in Seattle, but it may have come at a serious cost. On Wednesday, the team placed Mitchell on the injured list with a subluxation of his left shoulder. Image courtesy of © Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports The Injury A shoulder subluxation is essentially a partial dislocation of the shoulder joint, occurring as a result of either loose ligaments in the shoulder joint, or weakness of the rotator cuff muscles. It usually occurs in movements where the hand and arm are at full stretch above the head. The instability in the shoulder joint can result in this being a recurring injury rather than a one-off, and create a persistent pain or weakness in the shoulder. That being said, this would be classified as a traumatic injury, which suggests a better long-term prognosis. Hopefully, the strength and conditioning elements of the Brewers system can assist in minimizing this further. The actual detachment is less of an issue with this injury than the damage it can do to the rotator cuff and the labrum. What May Have Happened Garrett Mitchell continuing to play on and throw with the injury may have made the situation significantly worse regarding the damage to his rotator cuff. It’s quite possible that he weakened his rotator cuff in the slide, with this weakness translating to the subluxation when he tried to throw to home. A partial tear exacerbated by the high-intensity throw to home could be season-ending, and the resulting surgery has historically created problems with a reduction in power due to scarring. The Recovery The recovery varies depending on the severity of the injury, but recent history doesn’t look promising. The worst-case scenario is also the most common cause unfortunately, which is anterior labral detachment, which wouldn’t bode well for Mitchell and could require an arthroscopic surgical repair. With a full detachment, surgery would be necessary, but there is a possibility that it can heal naturally if the labrum is merely strained. Complete recovery can take five to six months for the layman, and there is a huge risk in returning to activities before the shoulder is stable. Based on prior examples, it’s very possible that Mitchell is out for around three months based on this prognosis. If he’s avoided any damage to the labrum, then he would see a far shorter time off and merely need to put the shoulder back in place, and re-strengthen the muscles around the joint. Similar MLB Injuries Fernando Tatis, Jr. Tatis had a shoulder subluxation during the first week of the 2021 season, on an extended follow-through while swinging the bat. Yet, he played through the injury all season before having surgery on the torn labrum at the end. In his own words, he was playing with “one arm” all season, yet he still posted a .975 OPS. It remains to be seen, as he hasn’t played in the major leagues since, but his recent performances in the minors suggest his power hasn’t disappeared. The subluxation was in his non-throwing arm. Brian Anderson In 2021, Anderson was a rising star (an All-Star in 2019), but he suffered two subluxations in the same season. The first put him on the 60-day injured list, and he came off as soon as the 60 days were up, on July 24th. Six weeks later, he had re-aggravated the injury, causing another subluxation, after which he elected to go the surgical route. It’s safe to say his throwing arm has recovered since, with a 102-mph throw from the outfield yesterday, but he has battled recurring shoulder niggles ever since. Jesse Winker In 2018, Winker had a right shoulder subluxation, which ended his season on July 25. He has struggled with shoulder stuff ever since, but he did experience a slight power decrease in 2019, which returned in 2020 and 2021. Perk Up It’s too early to know definitively when Mitchell will be back. In the meantime, Blake Perkins has gotten the call from Triple A to join the outfield mix. Whether or not Perkins remains the guy for the gig could depend on a number of factors. It feels likely that Sal Frelick pushes his way into the mix soon. At every turn, this team’s depth is being tested, but so far, they’ve passed all of those tests. Mitchell’s absence is just the next in the queue. View full article

Has there been any reports or news on what the Brewers have been working with Misiorowski on? Since the draft, they've been keeping him mostly behind closed doors so curious if there's any discernible changes or developments since his college days

What has the owner done to justify putting any effort into moving? It's a disgrace and I'd make him put a competitive product on the field first, because quite frankly who in Vegas wants to watch AAA players get raked on by major leaguers day after day

I dont mind it i have to say, it's nice to keep it even and actually enjoy all the different players in the league

Just to clarify with Burnes latest comments that its just his ribs or sternum: Given there was no impact to create bruising, and no broken bone, then this is till a pectoral strain of the tendons connecting the muscle to the bone. That would potentially be more worrisome, as the injury is more problematic if the tendons detach from the bone. As such, it's still a muscle strain, but hopefully just a grade one outlook. I'm slightly concerned he's set on making every start again this season to boost his value, and ignoring his body with comments like this, which certainly haven't come from the team doctor as they make no sense.

The bullpen he throws in a few days is probably going to be the indicator, if the velocity or command aren't where they expect , or there's any tightness lingering, I think he'll skip it, but I think they plan on him missing just the one at most at this point

So a grade one tear, which is very minor, return to play is around a week, grade two is in the 2-6 week range, and grade three is much longer. The question is if he played through it for the fifth inning and part of the sixth, did he do any extra damage to take it past the grade one threshold

Both of the Brewers' co-aces are suddenly question marks, after a week of rough injury news that makes the team's excellent start to the season feel a bit fragile. Let's dig more into the specific injuries with which both Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff appear to be dealing. Image courtesy of © Stephen Brashear-USA TODAY Sports Corbin Burnes Burnes left the field early during the 6th inning, citing a tightening feeling in his chest, and noticing his velocity start to drop against Julio Rodriguez, along with an inability to locate, describing the feeling as akin to cramping. After the game, Craig Counsell commented that it was minor, and that it occurred during the tag on Eugenio Suarez to end the fourth inning. What is a pectoral strain? The pectoral muscle is the large muscle in your chest used in the majority of upper body “push” movements, i.e. moving your arms forward and away from the body. It is a relatively sturdy muscle, and most of these injuries occur in higher intensity movements pushing too fast or too far (in the concentric contraction), usually on the dominant throwing or hitting side. The higher-intensity movement can lead to a higher chance of a full rupture, but because Burnes merely overstretched attempting a tag, stretching too sharply in a lower-intensity movement during the eccentric contraction, it’s likely the strain is just a small tear. As such, resting the muscle for a short period should suffice, as well as hot/cold treatment. Recovery Prognosis Low-grade strains (which are minor muscle tears) carry a recovery period for the average joe of a few weeks, and as such, it’s likely that Burnes will miss his next start–if only in the name of caution, given the mounting number of injuries the Brewers currently have. If it turns out to be a high-grade strain (known as a full thickness tear, or muscle rupture) then the return period is much longer, around six months. That could sideline Burnes for the remainder of the season. Current Player Examples Eloy Jimenez While leaping for a home-run robbery (stretching out with his glove arm like Burnes), Jiménez ruptured his left pectoral muscle, leaving him out for four months (a much faster recovery than expected) from late March to July 20, 2021. Sonny Gray Injured his right pectoralis while pitching on May 30, 2022. It was a minor strain, and he returned to pitch five innings of scoreless baseball on June 15. Brandon Woodruff There’s been a lot of discussion on the forum about the severity of Woodruff’s shoulder injury, so what exactly is the injury, and how can we expect him to come back from it? What is a Subscapular injury? The subscapularis is a large, triangular muscle underneath the scapula, part of the four-muscle group forming the “rotator cuff”. It’s the largest and strongest of the four, connecting the humerus bone to the front of the shoulder capsule, with its primary function being the internal rotation of the humerus (this is when your hand rotates clockwise). The muscle itself plays a key role in the stabilization of the shoulder, an incredibly complex task given the variety of ways in which the shoulder moves. The main symptoms occur when the arm is raised above shoulder height, with an overworked subscapularis making it feel as though you are unable to lift your arm. The most common symptoms in pitchers are either pain, or a decrease in velocity, the latter of which Woodruff demonstrated in his last outing after his first inning of work. Recovery Process The treatment of subscapularis tears depends on the severity of the injury, ideally not requiring surgery. The good news about Brandon Woodruff is that he has been diagnosed with a “mild” Grade II strain, which is a distinct lesion of over 25% of the craniocaudal diameter, but, crucially, the muscle is still attached to the bone. Therefore, the process for recovery will be simpler, likely involving hot/cold treatment and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory medication such as Ibuprofen, as well as physical therapy to prevent frozen shoulder during the recovery process. Timeline A survey performed on one unnamed professional baseball organization over the course of five years found 10 clinical findings (using MRIs) of subscapularis strains of various degrees of severity (four Grade I, four Grade II and two Grade III), all of which were treated without surgery. The average number of days without throwing activity was 27 days (the range was 11-61 days). The majority of these injuries were rehabbed with no lasting performance drop. Current Player Examples Corey Kluber Diagnosed with a subscapularis strain in late May 2021, he was shut down for four weeks, and took a further four weeks to build up again. The original prognosis was off by a month, and he didn’t return until August 30. Daniel Espino With a Grade III strain (torn off the bone), Espino was put on the 60-day injured list and shut down for a minimum of eight weeks, though it is important to stress this is a more severe form of Woodruff’s injury. Shane Bieber Initially upon diagnosis in May 2021, Bieber was shut down for two weeks, and re-evaluated after that on June 13. He didn’t return to action until three months later, on the September 24. Mark Melancon Currently on the 60-day injured list for an undetermined length of time. Kluber and Bieber are the most comparable out of these injuries, as both were Grade II tears, and each took around three months to return to the mound. With that in mind, it seems likely that the Milwaukee Brewers won’t see Woodruff back until just after the All-Star break. View full article

Corbin Burnes, in 2021 was without question the best pitcher in baseball. He gave up the fewest home runs per nine innings, had the best strikeout-to-walk ratio amongst starters, and had the best strikeouts per nine. His underlying expected stats were even better than his actual ones, demonstrating he was potentially unlucky in producing league-leading figures in ERA and FIP. Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports In 2022, Corbin Burnes regressed somewhat, largely due to the home run bug that hit him, which is concerning given the ball was less “bouncy” compared to his Cy Young year. He was barreled up almost twice as much throughout the season; pitchers were whiffing far less often on his cutter (and he used it even more despite this in 2022), with his curveball, change up, and cutter all being hit harder. In short, last season had less to do with bad luck and was entirely due to a regression in his effectiveness on the mound. Predictability One of the standout things, as mentioned in part two of this deep dive, is that Burnes in later counts can become highly predictable, and he fell behind batters to this extent a lot more often in 2022, facing 98 batters in 3-0 or 3-1 counts, vs. just 74 in 2021. This is significant because the league adapted to his cutter-heavy pattern in these counts. Having likely seen several cutters to this point and being able to expect that a cutter is almost certainly being thrown in these counts, hitters had a .472 WOBA against him that rose to .576 in 2022 in 3-0 counts, as well as drawing more walks. Burnes has a lot of pitches he locates well, and even throwing the occasional change up, slider, or curveball in these counts could dramatically improve his effectiveness. The same issue comes in how he attacks hitters with the change up. It’s become such a deadly pitch that he utilizes it to great effect against left-handed hitters. Still, his velocity and above-average movement on this pitch could be paired well with the front-door cutter to right-handers or just dropping down and below the zone to give hitters something else to think about. He’s never been hit particularly hard with it, and the strict parameters he employs when using his pitch arsenal could be to his detriment. Given the sinker’s ineffectiveness and the change up averaging over 90 mph, he could almost use it to generate that other-way movement he wanted from the sinker to pair with his cutter. In 2022, each change up, slider, and curveball held whiff rates between 46.7%-49.7% range on plate appearances ending in these pitches. While the cutter gets a lot of attention, the efficiency of his alternate pitches is the main reason for his high strikeout rates since returning from 2019’s disaster. Improving the variation with which he uses his pitchers, and becoming comfortable throwing them in any count, could make his cutter yet more destructive and generate many swinging strikes as hitters adjust to the new change. So far, the change up has been worth over three runs above average (per FanGraphs) contrasted with almost minus two value for the entirety of last season. Adjusted for a per 100 pitches usage, look at the difference in his change up compared to the sinker, for six mph of difference in average velocity. Hitters are managing to foul Burnes's pitches off more, and that extra layer of deception could bring a big change in his effectiveness. Meanwhile, as you can see when the sinker is thrown… pray. The Breaking Pitches In 2021, Burnes didn’t allow many hits off his breaking pitches, mainly due to launch angles. An excessive average of 22 degrees launch angle on the curveball (with a 17% hard-hit rate) meant that many soft fly balls came down from it. On the other hand, his slider averaged just one degree, albeit with a higher hard-hit rate of 30%, and produced a ton of ground balls. In 2022, these two pitches averaged 14 and 18 degrees for the curveball and slider, respectively. However, the movement on these pitches didn’t change much, and his curveball and slider still weren’t hit particularly hard. This increased contact, dropping into the outfield for singles and more occasions with men on base. He occasionally hung his curveball more often in 2022, which didn’t help his cause. Interestingly, his expected averages barely changed from 2021, so there is an element of bounce back to be expected from Burnes this season, but it may depend again on how much variation he can add to his pitch mix. The Swing/Take Analysis As you can see above, Burnes improved his ability to deceive pitchers around the fringes of the strike zone, with an improved -11 runs in the “shadow.” However, he greatly struggled in the heart of the zone, an area he generated a lot of swing and miss in throughout 2021, in part due to occasionally hanging his curveball slightly more often but also because his cutter, which regularly plays in the heart of the plate, had more contact against it. Then again, whiff rates are less a factor over the middle of the plate, but it’s more the quality of contact; Take a look at these average exit velocities rates from 2021 (left) compared to 2022 (right): As you can see, he was hit much harder, particularly middle/middle and middle/away to the right-handers. The cutter’s late horizontal movement fooled a lot of hitters in 2021, but it seems they had adjusted in 2022, and that pitch needs to work a lot harder to be as effective as a result. Although the movement profile is almost identical, the cutter dropped 4% in whiff rate and over 8% in strikeout rate. Where can Burnes progress in 2023? Aside from the pitch above mix, there’s one other area I think Burnes can exploit more, especially when he wants an easy strike. Let’s take a look at the average exit velocities to right-handers in 2022: That inside part of the plate being attacked by sliders and cutters has produced astoundingly low exit velocities, yet is the most underused area for him to pitch into. Part of this is that hitters aren’t expecting it, but given how a lot of hitters look to work the count against him more so than ever to force that cutter, an early front-door cutter/slider would present a whole different look to the at-bat, forcing the hitter to cover the plate inside as well as away, and encouraging more chases on the cutter/slider combo. It also looks ideal for a down and in change up if he starts landing the cutter for strikes on the inner third. If only to add some variety to his slightly metronomic, predictable pitch usage, I feel this is an area he could massively exploit this coming season. What do you think, Fanatics? Did anything here take you by surprise? View full article