BrewerFan

You get taxed on where you're getting paid. Otherwise every player would just buy a home in Texas and say that's where they live(or Florida). You can't circumvent income tax by moving to a state unless...you're employed in that state.

I don't love trading Devanney, I thought he could be a nice utility option who could play SS/3B at a high level. But, as always, I will trust the Brewers, their scouting and development as it pertains to acquiring pithing.

As far as I know, Mark A owns ~36% of the team, but I'm not positive on the exact number. But I don't think it works like this. One partial owner putting money into the team. I recall Bill Maher when the Mets were cash-poor after the Ponzi scheme and all that, and he commented how he was terrified there'd be another "cash call." I think that means they're in the red and whatever they need, you have to put your fair share in.

Well...they were definitely cheap under the Wendy, but I don't believe they were/are cheap otherwise, why do you think John Menard is cheap?

Which is why I don't. He has .6 and Gasser has 10.6? That's a pretty large disconnect for me. Also; If that's still what you HOPE to get out of Ashby, then trade him now. But according to reports, his velocity was coming back in AZ after rehab. He has 3 pitches with a 60 grade on them. That's a guy who could pitch atop a rotation, not a back-of-the-rotation type pitcher. Shoulders are always a risk, but given his contract and the low risk, I wouldn't move him unless it was a better deal and I'm not particularly interested in trading Gasser or Rodriguez, two of the pitchers we'll likely be counting on to give us innings who are more middle to back of the rotation type pitchers. He also has a GB/FB ratio well over 2:1. I don't think any of these are Contreras-like trades(which is an exceptionally high standard) that looks even better in retrospect given the Brewers' ability to develop catchers.

That was earlier last year and what Law was complaining about early in the season. Aug 3 and Aug 16th, he maintained his velocity much better in the 4th, 5th, 6th innings. Misiorowski also throws from a 3/4 arm slot and you'd say you need to get on top of that Curve in order to develop that as a 3rd pitch. Also, Maddux threw from a 3/4 arm slot and had one of the great changeups in MLB. As long as he can change speeds and get movement, I'm not all that concerned about the angle he's throwing it. https://www.chrisoleary.com/pitching/arm-slot.html Hader became a reliever because he was called up from AAA after walking 5.5 with a Whip over 1.5 and an ERA over 5(similar to Misiorowski last year despite his stuff) and he excelled in shorter outings, that's what prompted his move the following year after falling a game short of the playoffs in '17. When he was called up, he was a starter, he was a top 20-30 prospect, and he was struggling with his command. I think his first year, a high effort delivery perhaps and they were working with him on his control. Arm like that doesn't need pin-point command, but high walk rates, some HBP often mixed in. By the end of the year though arguably his best two outings, 5IP and then 6IP(2 of his last 3 outings) were two of his best, including the 6IP, 1H, 0 ER, 3BB and 2 HBP, but also 12Ks is hopefully a jumping off point. I hope you're right in the larger point. Just continuing the Hader comp, he was brought up(from being a starter) in June of '17 when we were close to .500. Perhaps a more stable BP and the fact that Misiorowski is earlier on in his development will force the Brewers to be more patient. He can afford to be a little wild, but he can't afford to have 5-7 HBP/BB per 9 innings. I'd like to see him spend maybe half of the year in AA working on repeating his delivery and throwing more strikes and hopefully, picking up where he left off, then AAA and only brought up if it's as a starter. Not because we're within 2-3 games of the last playoff spot late in the year. We'll have to live with their decision either way, but I hope it's as a starter vs a reliever.

This was what I was going to post. His BABIP. There's luck involved. He walked more next year. His hard hit% dropped and he often times looked like he was pressing. I expect a big bounce back this year, but he's still a valuable player with his power and glove. The difference is a top 20 MVP candidate vs a nice 3-4 WAR player. If you could extend him for 5/100, I think I'd do it(making it 6/111 or whatever he's projected to get). But I don't think he takes that. So we'll likely play it out with him, offer him the QO and see where we stand after '24. Or maybe we get a nice offer for him and trade him. But I don't think he's quite fallen as far as this is suggesting.

I think you're forgetting what type of prospect Hader was(it's kinda easy to remember him as a more surefire reliever vs a starter, but we were committed to keeping him as a starter as well). Nearly as highly regarded, but he was also supposed to remain a starter until they saw what he could do in 2-3 innings stints. He had a 60 FB, 65 SL and a developing Change when he was in the same position Misiorowski would be if things went right and he got his 120-130 innings in. When Hader broke in with the Brewers, he had a ~1.5 Whip, fewer K's per 9, but he'd started his entire career save for some of the AZF and a few years earlier with Hou when he started 17 of the 24 games he'd appeared in, otherwise he was a starter. I hope you're right. I hope he gets 120 IP as a starter, then in a playoff push is used sparingly out of the pen for 2-3 innings at a time. But I think the chances of Hader becoming a starter were higher than we remember them. He became a top ~20-30 prospect as a starting pitcher. Hopefully, his delivery works for him, not against him(As that has great minds like Keith Law speculating his future role is that of a reliever). (Before they started letting him go longer outings). I don't think Law is particularly insightful, but these are the concerns I've heard shared by others. https://theathletic.com/4531405/2023/05/19/mlb-prospects-brewers-pirates-phillies/

Just curious what the thoughts on Misiorowski are on here. I remember last year...particularly when the Future Stars game performance went viral, there were a lot of people clamoring for him to be in Milwaukee. I've seen him mentioned as option to be a starter for the Brewers this year. Not one of the top 5-6, but high enough on the list that he'd likely make the start. I look at Misiorowski and it's impossible to miss the ridiculous upside. I could EASILY see him having a Uribe-like impact this year, BUT, is that the best use of a pitcher with his talent? He has a FB that seems to be high effort, but he's been able to maintain it deeper into starts(the few starts he went deep in). He's got a slider that is unhittable when he locates it and then another pitcher...I can't even tell what it is. A power curve maybe? One breaking ball at ~92, one at ~86 or so. And then a changeup that looks like he could become a weapon. The issue is if the Brewers use him out of the pen too early, he may end up like Hader and just stay there as a dominant multi-inning reliever. And while I'd never suggest Hader was a failure in anyway, he was a dominant reliever, he was similar in that he was a bit erratic, but his stuff was overpowering enough that he could get by in the pen, but needed to develop more in the rotation. I'd like to see him start the year in AA as a starter, try and get him to work deeper into games, work on his command, and not add him to the 40 or call him up just because he's the best reliever available, but allow him to develop, hopefully into our next TOR arm. Our next Burnes/Woodruff. Maybe a deGrom-lite. I'd be completely fine not seeing him in 2024 and waiting until 2025 to break in, or if we made the playoffs, get 3-4 innings as Burnes and Woodruff did. I'm seeing a lot of #3/4 type arms coming up, some guys who are too far away yet. And then Peralta(a #2/3), Ashby a complete question mark, but TOR-type stuff. What would everyone else like to see from Misiorowski? Bring him up this year if he's one of our best 7 relievers...or roll the dice a bit, put more inninggs on his arm(which comes with risk), and try and develop him as a starter?

Right. At best, he could keep the velo at ~96, use the Brewers to refine his pitchers. Just from a lazy glance at Fangraphs, his 96-97 MPH sinker(assuming the 3MPH hike is true) and his SL are his two best pitchers. You can get through a lineup twice with just two pitchers. I think 25 starts a 3.40 ERA and 120IP is the upside here(maybe a bit better, but that seems greedy). More likely, he gets 7-10 starts and then throws out of the pen as a long man and carries an ERA of ~4 Worst case, we wasted 1.75M. There are FAR bigger downsides. I'd probably lean toward option #2, but who ever knows.

I knew their Son(more through a friend of mine). He went to College with an old coach and friend. Only met them briefly, but the Mom seemed....pretty normal given their finances. Not sure it's going to have a significant impact on the Brewers payroll or finances, but one can hope. Now, my Uncle knew John Menard...as a VERY early customer back in the...60s IIRC up in Eau Claire. Hopefully my 3 degrees of knowing rich people will pay off and the Menard family will get into Baseball! Buy those Brewers!

I'm not talking about oWAR and how Prince was as a 1B as compared to Yount vs other SS/CFs or Molitor vs other...2B/3B. I'm talking about just offensive production. Prince; .282/.390/.540/.929 143 OPS+ WPA(27.5; 3.9 per season) Braun-.296/.358/.532.891 134 OPS+ WPA(33; 2.4 per season) Molitor- .303/.367/.444.811 125 OPS+ WPA(25.1; 1.7 per season) Yount-.285/.342/.430/.772 115 OPS+ WPA(20.1; 1.0 per season) None of these are adjusted for position, JUST strictly for a player's offensive production. I didn't say compared to other 1B or best player. Just the best offensive player. I emphasized the words; He's not the best player. JUST offensively; Right. I also added that the Brewers developed. WPA also works as it's Win Probability added for offensive players and also does not take into account position. I think you could argue Molitor was the best offensive player developed by the Brewers given the longevity. Yount you could certainly argue is the best overall. There was certainly no attempt to diminish other Brewer greats, but highlight exactly what an unattainable expectation it really ever was to replace Prince and what he provided. But JUST up there with a bat in their hand...I don't think they've had anyone better than Prince. The Walks, the power...while maintaining a pretty good BA. He was incredible.

No, I don't either. The 6 elite defenders were Chourio, Frelick, Mitchell, Wiemer, Taylor and Perkins. That's why I said only room for 2 of them.

I think he's just mentioning the players that have been rumored to be part of trades. That'd obviously not be Chourio.

I hate the idea of giving up Frelick, but if they made either of these trades, you could slide Black into the OF in his stead(or play him at 1B or 2B if Gorman plays 3B). So I could definitely live with Marte for Frelick and I'd come around on Gorman real quick. I don't think I'd call him injury-prone just yet. Mitchell has been. The Brewers also seem particularly...cautious with their minor leaguers, but has he had a healthy season yet? Would '22 be the healthiest? Hard to say with these young guys and the MiLB injuries how serious they are given the lack of information and how serious they are, but he seems like he's been banged up more. I'd make both trades. I'd give up Frelick for either. I suspect the Reds would balk at that suggestion and the Cards would as well. They just traded away a good CFer because they said publicly they didn't have room for him. Jordan Walker, Lars Nootbaar with Edman in CF and Carson as their #4, I'm not sure they're looking to trade a young 2B/3B for an OFer. So I don't see a fit there and with the Reds, I think Marte...I think you're probably going to have to part with Burnes to get him. And Marte could very well end up as a Shortstop on another team that doesn't have a budding Superstar already playing SS. A guy who can hit 30 HRs. I'd be all for that. 3B or SS. In fact, his versatility would make him more appealing. Turang could stay at 2nd if Marte doesn't outgrow SS or you could have two really good defenders on that side. Sign me up for Marte, just skeptical that we're giving up enough to get him. Feels like you'd need to at least add a Payamps to that deal. Frelick+Payamps given the Reds are trying to compete and I'm not completely confident Payamps is going to be able to maintain his performance.

We'll find out later. Maybe it's Yelich not wanting to. Maybe they simply hadn't planned on the transition quite yet. Maybe they tried and he doesn't feel comfortable. 1B is the easiest position, doesn't mean it's an easy position. Maybe it is harder on his back and I was wrong(I think the torque and movement in the OF is tougher on your back, Brewerfan82 thought moving around at 1B was). I'm still hoping we'll see it in a year as it feels like a bit of a waste to have 6 elite defenders and only have room for 2 of them when we prioritize defense so much, but that's where we are. I'd also guess we'd see Yelich as the DH quite a bit more.

I'd like to see him start on opening day. If he struggles, you can always send him back down and rewind the service clock, but if he hits, give him an extension as well. 8/40M or whatever. Make the offer. But it'd depend on how he's doing it. Is he doing it like Mitchell did it, or is he maintaining an extremely high walk rate and making good contact, and playing well enough in the field that you'd feel good about him playing 1B or 3B moving forward. Or ignore all that and just allow him the opportunity to earn the job as it's another crack at the draft pick compensation for ROY top 3 finishes. .284.417.513 in AA/AAA last year with nearly identical numbers in AAA. .514 SLG, higher OBP, higher BA by quite a bit. I don't think he was abnormally lucky in either with a .320 and .34 BABIP at each level. For a guy with speed like Black has, he'll probably be in the ~320 range for the most part. Sure, Chourio was in a far different position in that he first hit AA at age 18. Then, on top of that, he also didn't quite hit the ground running in AA(the tacked ball or the fact that it's the biggest jump in levels until the jump from MiLB to MLB). I hope Wilken follows suit, I hope he's Pete Alanso but with elite defense at 3B with a monster arm and I hope he forces his way into the lineup this year. I didn't put a ton of thought into the "we won't see him for another year," I was just giving a general time line, not speaking in absolutes. I think it's pretty unlikely he's up this year, but...it'd mean he's earned it(or we're just that bad again and we're desperate).

And who was this?

Did Julien just kinda come out of nowhere? I'm looking at the Twins 2022 prospect list and he's not on there. I don't know much about him beyond the stat-line...which looks nice. But I also like Frelick a lot. I don't know if he's #2 to Chourio, or Wiemer is, but he's more of a sure thing, he brings a ton of energy and I think he's a winner. I'd feel much better if it was Mitchell+ another prospect, but I just don't know much beyond what I see on Fangraphs. So no strong opinion on him.

Based on what? I also didn't see him say he won't until he's 100%. I did see him say this two days ago;

I posted this last Oct before I knew he was transferring to a non-Juco.

No, I cannot, nor can you. And no, saying that salary and ticket prices have no correlation does not fly in the face of every business everywhere, it's basic economics. The owners aren't going to charge less than they can get irrespective of their expenses. This is the case in every sport, but particularly in Baseball. https://sheabridge.substack.com/p/payroll-doesnt-determine-ticket-prices https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/72886/veteran-presence-the-relationship-between-player-salaries-and-ticket-prices/#:~:text=Teams don't use analytics,t enter into that calculation.

The cost of games isn't the players fault. If you want to blame anyone, it's the fans fault. If the Brewers payroll was 20M or 200M, the Brewers would be charging the same for the team each year. Owners wouldn't sacrifice less money just because they had lower costs and they can't raise ticket prices because they have higher costs. The Guardians went from a nearly 160 in payroll to cutting it in half and they raised ticket prices. Owners are going to maximize profits no matter what...just like it doesn't matter that your Jordan's only cost 9 bucks to make, you're still paying 399 for them or your Iphone or whatever else it is that people are willing to pay for despite very low..."labor" costs.

Well, I would. But you don't have to. How pedantic can we make this? The point is we'll have seen Black play well before Wilken makes it up. Be it another year or a WHOLE month earlier by being a Sept call-up.

Cool. He played 6 games. Doesn't change the point I was making, which was that he won't be up for another year.