BrewerFan

I'm not taking a shot at the Bears...but is anyone Bears level bad at developing QBs outside of Cleveland? They're particularly bad. As for AZ, just 13M in dead cap, but more importantly, they'd save cap space. ~5M and they'd be almost 75M under the cap. Arizona gets to start over and trade Murray. Plus, he's a pretty good young QB, though AZ will probably be happy just to move off him. I'd guess Atlanta might be interested at that price and then AZ gets a high 2nd. Win-Win. Those two teams are likely to completely change the direction of their franchise though. I think this will be a historic draft class. If ever there was a class to have two picks. And I think people are really sleeping on Maye as well. He's a unique prospect;

Wait...WHAAAAT! Yelich has a No Trade Clause? So he can veto the trade? No way...that's almost like being 10/5. Amazing. What a fresh perspective here!

Yeah, it's a bad contract for the Brewers. Saying it's as likely as signing Judge is...LOL...c'mon. I JUST gave you an example of the very same team taking on a 9 figure contract a couple posts ago. You KNOW you don't believe what you're saying.

I certainly wouldn't suggest the Brewers get a large return. Carlos Herrera, Daniel Missak and a 3rd prospect type of trade and...if that 3rd pitcher does turn into Peralta, great, but it's really just about trading Yelich. And I get why that's not popular...but I think what will be popular, would be signing Chourio(for instance) very early on in his career would be very popular. I also believe the Brewers should have tried to sign Burnes after the 2020 season(we don't know if he was offered a deal prior to that, but we know he wasn't offered one since then).

I was refuting the idea that his value was so low the Giants wouldn't want to take the contract on by showing you an example of another player at age 32 who had nearly identical offensive production and they traded for him. It's not a 1 for 1 analogy, but it's about as close as you can get. And I'm not sure why you're jumping in here and saying they don't HAVE to make this trade after I literally said that exact same thing. I'd rather see them use their payroll on players between 20-30 moving forward. By the time they start to get expensive and into the 2nd year of arbitration, you're talking about trading him. So if Chourio was an Acuna Jr, this is the year they'd be moving off him most likely. Just because you don't have any other bad outstanding contracts doesn't mean you keep the one you have.

Sure...I suppose that's what started the conversation. The idea that you could put Chourio, Frelick and then Mitchell and Wiemer in the OF. Perkins and Taylor are also both look like adequate 4th OFers as well. This is clearly unlikely to happen and of course it's speculative, but that's the entire point of this forum. It's not like anyone here is dictating the Brewers roster decisions. If the Brewers could walk away from Yelich and his deal at this point, at a time when they're moving on from Burnes, Adames...likely Woodruff and Williams in the next couple years, it'd make sense to.

I don't know think it'd be a non-starter. I think it'd be a thin needle to thread and I said I don't think it's likely. You're saying there's ZERO reason to trade him in part because he's the face of the franchise. There are players all the time that the Brewers wouldn't go after in Free Agency, but other teams will obviously. Lets start out with IF he were a FA, what would he be likely to get? I think 5/110 is a pretty reasonable number given the lack of FA's out there. Evan Longoria to the Giants is a perfect example. The Rays owed him 6/100 in 2017 and the Giants traded for him despite the fact that 3 of the previous 4 years he'd had pretty average years. They were both 32 years old the first year with the Giants and the previous 4 seasons, Longoria had a .767 OPS, 111 OPS+ Yelich has a .768 OPS. 112 OPS+. So no, it's not a non-starter, it's a reason for the Brewers to want to move off of him. The Giants can take on far more risk than the Brewers can.

There's zero reason? There's several reasons. The last 3 seasons, his ongoing back issues, the remaining years on his contract will be ages 32-36, the Brewers financial limitations...those are all obvious reasons.

He's coming off a 3.6 WAR season, it's a unusually weak FA class and he had a NTC before hitting 10/5 anyway, so he'd always have to accept a trade. I don't think it's true he has no trade value. If he was a FA, I think he'd probably get somewhere in the 5/110 range. If that's the case and you can move him, I'd move him. That's why it's being talked about. That contract is thee reason to get rid of him.

Eh...yeah. I thought they had a chance...but I'm actually more fine with this loss than any other playoff loss by one of my teams. I've just kinda come to accept it.

Well...of course there are reasons why a team wouldn't want him. I'm just looking at a team like the Giants. They seem more willing to take on the risk and older players. And if they go out and sign Ohtani, then they're going all in for next year. I think by the end of his deal, he's a Lo Cain type player, probably walks a bit more, but I think it's going to be ugly. So I think right now will be your best chance to move on. But I accept the chances that they could make a trade without eating more than the ~28M deferred and then the 6.5M buyout and just the 5/110M are probably slim and the chances that he'd agree are even lower. It's also really not something they HAVE to do. It's just something I'd do if I could. But he's hardly the problem. I think he was on base 6 of 10 times this series. A pretty stupid base running blunder, but he had a good year. 22M a year and then deferred money is a good deal for what we're getting right now and...maybe he'll age like Brantley where he's still got some really good years and he has some years he misses a lot of time. What's important is how good Chourio, Quero, Black...the rookies we've seen, how do they develop. The Yelich thing is a bit fantastical.

I think both Williams and Maye are franchise type QBs. Maye reminds me of an Andrew Luck physically. He's a big guy, strong arm, mobile and I think he goes #1 in most drafts. I do think Williams is on the same level as those QBs. If the Bears end up with the 1st AND 2nd picks...I think they'll be able to get a massive haul for either. The #1 would be an enormous haul. I think him pulling an Eli would hurt him as he'd probably have his own idea where he'd want to go. But setting that aside, if you get the top 2 picks, the #2 pick then effectively has the value of a #1 pick in most drafts. IF they could trade that 2nd pick and move down just a few spots and pick up a future 1st+ and still get Fashanu, or whomever ends up being the top OT prospect...Alt looks incredible to me, Mims was a 5 star recruit who looks elite...but perhaps a future RT, maybe Latham...I don't know, but they'll be good. I think Poles made a brilliant trade last year. Even not taking Carter and drafting Wright was a good move IMO. He looks like a franchise LT. I think you can win with EITHER an elite OL and a good QB or an elite QB and a solid OL. If you're elite in both regards, you'll be a contender every year. We'll see, but it has me actively rooting for the Bears.

Buck Showalter? Hard pass.

Yeah, when you're trying to grow cartilage in your knee, you're not going to be back in a few months. If this surgery works...he'll probably be really good again. As far as I understand it, it's far from certain. I'll be a big fan when they put him in the Packers HOF. I'd remain open to him coming back next year. But we're 3 years into this now and at best you maybe bring him back if he takes a ~15M paycut next year. 4M+ incentives at most, but you shouldn't plan on him coming back.

I think Detroit has figured it out. I don't think you need elite QB play if you have elite players around him...and I think the Lions have just that. They've been a perennial doormat, I don't think they are any longer. I don't recall the Bears ever being viewed as having the brightest future of anyone in the NFL North in the recent past. I don't think anyone really thought Trubisky was an elite QB and they certainly didn't have a great team around him. The culture in Detroit has changed, their infrastructure has changed. I don't think they're a doormat any longer. They may have a ceiling with Goff. The Rams did. But they can still be a really good team. And we still haven't seen that team at full strength yet.

I don't actually think Caleb Williams is going to pass up going to Chicago and trying to turn that franchise around. I was trying to talk **** to a Bears fan! And frankly, if he does do that, I'd lose respect for him. You have the chance to go to one of the...great sports cities(that almost made me puke to write) and turning around the Bears and you choose to not do that because it's too hard? If he's really "like if Patrick Mahomes went back to College," then he should be confident anywhere. According to one guy who covers the Bears(it's on Twitter, so take it with the smallest possible grain of salt that it's worth), he said there's "literally nothing" Justin Fields can do between now and the draft to stop the Bears from taking Williams if they have the 1st pick. I think it's pretty simple. If Caleb Williams is the QB prospect everyone says he is, and if Fashanu is the "Orlando Pace like LT prospect," you do that. You take Williams, you put Fashanu at LT, you have two ELITE OTs and a Franchise QB and you buy back ownership to your franchise. You could have a really good offense next year. And beyond that, there are so many edge prospects who are FAs. As of now it looks like Gary, Allen, Burns, Sweat, Young. You can address the defense later but I don't see how they pass up a draft that would set them up with an offense that would probably be really good the first year. Moore, Mooney, Kmet, Johnson, Herbert. I am genuinely rooting for the Bears to keep Justin Fields for one more year as a result of all this. I hope they focus on the defensive side of the ball and hedge their bets. I don't think they will if they're picking 1-2 of just have the #1 pick.

There are a few things in here I don't totally agree with. I'm not sure Mitchell is a 25HR guy just yet...but THIS is exactly what should happen next year. The knee jerk reaction to watching the end of an era of an offensively incompetent team is completely understandable, but they've addressed that in the best way they can...by developing it. Chourio, Wilken(ACC All-Time HR leader), Wiemer...everyone we know about. They just need time to develop. So next year is kinda like the Packers this year. You let the young guys play, see where you are after that, hopefully you've found important young pieces and THEN you go out and spend resources on addressing those positions more aggressively. Taking another Wisconsin Sports team, if the Brewers were in the same place as the Bucks, then it'd make sense to go out and overpay for a big bat like Alanso at 1st and try and fit those final pieces in there...but I just don't it like that in Baseball. I like the "Bites at the apple," idea...I'd just like to see some more teeth...

Well, 17 million dollars over 5 years if Matt Chapman is agreeable, but that seems unlikely, so nowhere. I wouldn't make a significant investment in any position in free agency as I said. We had the highest payroll we've had this year. We both know their limited in what they can do. So no Ohtani, no Chapman...as nice as he'd fit, and then you've got guys like Joc Peterson and guys who are normally players you take a flier on, not guys you build your off-season around as FA targets. So I don't think they'll invest anywhere, BUT if they decide to, OF is the least likely. That's all I've said. Of all the area's of the team, OF is probably the most set moving forward. They have good young, cheap players who were highly regarded. LHed, RHed and elite defenders. 3B is hardly settled as there are obvious questions about Black playing there and I wouldn't say Wilken is quite on the doorstep, but sure. Unless you can get a real difference maker, I wouldn't invest in either of those positions this year either. If there happens to be a great trade in which Turang has some value and you get a big bat at 2B...sure. As it stands, he's coming off a .585 OPS at 2B. The point was I wouldn't spend money and ADD an OFer. Feels like that's the one position you can...pretty safely rule out the Brewers using their resources to invest in. There's also the fact that Black has gotten considerable time in the OF. I suspect if the Brewers didn't have 4 top 100 prospects+140M invested in the OF already, he'd still be playing out there. But they need help at 3B and 1B(or DH) more...which is why he's playing there. Obviously I can see them trading from their OFers, but who has value right now? Chourio obviously has significant value. He's also the core for the next chapter of Brewers baseball and feels like he's pretty much off the table. Frelick- I guess it's possible, but again, he seems like he's exactly the type of player the Brewers have been trying to develop. An elite defender with elite bat to ball skills, speed and he's also a fan favorite in a very small sample size due to how he plays and the energy he provides. Similar to Adames...IMO. Wiemer, Mitchell-You'd be selling low. Taylor or Perkins-Maybe Taylor has some value, but I don't suspect it's much. Same with Perkins. Yelich-I'd be all for trading Yelich and I've said as much...but I don't think it's very likely. But there's two realistic directions the team goes. Keep Burnes, Woodruff and Adames, OR trade at least Burnes and realistically, you'd probably deal Willy as well(and I'd include Williams in that list as I think Uribe is the future). So playing that out, if you choose to run it back with Burnes, Woodruff and Adames, where are the resources to add payroll coming from? There is probably close to ~25M in payroll just via arbitration. If you choose to trade Burnes, Adames and company, then it doesn't really make sense to invest, particularly in THIS Free Agent class as it looks like scraps right out of the gate and you're realistically not really going to contend next year, so the urgency to add makes less sense. Which is why I ended up with the Brewers are building from within. I think the smartest and most likely direction is the Brewers try and get as much as they can for their pitching. Probably hold onto Woodruff at this point and see where we are next year at the deadline. By ~2025 our lineup could very easily have a whole lot of young talent; DH/1B-Yelich OF-Chourio/Mitchell/Wiemer/Frelick/Perkins/Taylor 3B/1B-Wilken, Black, Boeve, Adams on the verge...and hopefully Pratt, Bitonti, Baez and some of the younger players have better give us a better idea of what we'll have. SS/2B-Turang and maybe EBJ or Monasterio C-Contreras, Quero That's a lot of talent. Looking for a big bat...obviously if there's one available and you can make a trade, that always makes sense, but if we're looking toward the future, not the past, we need pitching. THAT is what I'd invest in.

Yes he did. He's not THE reason they lost, he IS an elite manager, he's proven that repeatedly, he's a huge net positive...but he was not good in this series. He made some baffling decisions, Winker twice, Frelick with the bases loaded over Wiemer, he made bad decisions. I know there feel like two "sides" right now. There are some tantrums being thrown and just a wide range of responses to a sh*** lost series, but you really can't say the decision making in that series or even the roster management for that matter was great. Winker is the most egregious. The 2nd at bat in particular. He should have gone to the IL and Tellez added. This is feeling like a political argument where you want to scratch and claw for every point because you don't want to cede any points to the "other side." You should be able to say, "that was a stupid move, but he's still a really good manager." Also, your post just lent itself to this response, I really didn't mean to dump it all on your. It's just a place to respond to it all. I haven't seen you posting a lot, so it's definitely just a general comment, not trying to tee off on your particular take.

What's the difference between being a 90+ win playoff team and a .500 team? Is that the question you're asking?

C'mon...Counsell isn't an idiot. He understands why Stearns had to "saddle" Craig with aging players at some spots and that this PROBABLY wouldn't be an issue in New York. I don't think Counsell has any negative feelings about the type of players Stearns was able to acquire for him or at the very least assigns some malice to it and is holding a grudge. They worked well together, we saw them talk about it regularly, Counsell was a part of the decision making process, he'd worked in the front office. He's not reacting like Eric Lauer to these moves. Stearns to NYM is just a perfect fit, it's like Friedman to the Dodgers. If you take that job, I think there's a pretty good chance that maybe not next year but by '25-'26, you'll be on a team that's regularly winning 90-100 games. I'm still skeptical that CC wants to leave and go manage baseball in New York, but I don't know the guy. We're all viewing this through our own lens. Give me the choice between managing a well run team and I get to keep my family in place, I don't need to uproot them, I get paid 5M instead of 10M a year, maybe we're not as good of a team, but we're still a competitive team...I'm staying home, sacrificing a little money.

I think Frelick is the least likely to get traded. I wouldn't trade Wiemer either. Maybe Mitchell if teams have a positive view of him, but lets say they trade Frelick and Taylor...for arguments sake. Aside from really pissing off Brewers fans by trading away one of those young hit over power bats the Brewers have been trying to develop and then trading him after 57 games where he provided energy, pretty good on base skills and magnificent defense in the OF. But hypothetically, lets say they trade him, Perkins and Taylor. I still think it's unlikely they invest in the OF market. I think it's unlikely they invest anywhere. They'll either run it back and have too much payroll or they'll move on and it'd be silly to bid for FAs in this market if you are losing Burnes and Adames. So I'd expect a transition year. Ideally it'd be with Counsell, but it could be a short transition depending on the trades they make and the young prospects. But I think it's pretty unlikely to expect to get a power bat...anywhere but from within the farm system. Which is good as we've got several potential options who are still very young.

Look at the FA class. That's why I've been suggesting Yelich. He'd probably get close to what we owe him on the open market. I think you're very limited, but SF I think signs Ohtani and then...seem as likely to be interested as anyone. CC not coming back, perhaps he'd accept a trade. LAD, LAA...both seem less likely for opposite reasons. AZ had two good young rookies in the OF, Walker at 1B. So, I don't know, you'd be dealing with ~8 teams. I think you could find a suitor, but expecting anything back is unlikely and you would at least have keep the deferred money. So 5/110 if you eat the deferred money and the 6.5 buyout. I think that's certainly reasonable and...then it's finding a match he's happy with. That may not exist or he may be fine with it.

And Caleb Williams is gonna stay at USC if that happens! It's alright...you could still come out of the draft with a franchise LT and Maye...who's similar to Luck(physically). Though...Detroit figured it out, so...at SOME point Chicago has to accidentally figure it out, right?

You have to pretty much take OFers off the table with Frelick, Mitchell, Wiemer, Yelich, Chourio and then the fringe players like Taylor and Perkins. It'd be kinda silly to spend there. Matt Chapman is a good player. That's pretty much the only big difference maker in this class other than Ohtani and I'd guess the bidding for him will get a little silly. The Brewers are building for their farm system. That's...just what they're going to do. The people upset about their 140M payroll are yelling at the Moon. They don't have the financial resources to compete for top FAs. We're just starting to see the benefits of a LA scouting dept, hopefully that continues. That's how they improve offensively. I'd be all for Chapman if his 'market value' was ~17M. But I suspect it'll be closer to 25 and 7 years? Maybe 8.