BrewerFan

It's the NFL, they definitely have more than "maybe one winnable game left," when you literally just cited two. They're also getting their star QB back. They have at least 5 "winnable" games left. And I'm not sure how much you've seen them. They've been competitive in several games and at least hung around vs some of the best. And that was without Kyler Murray. The Bears have the same record as the Packers. It's odd that we're zeroing in on Safety play, but Eddie Jackson, their AP has played 31 snaps since week 1 and is on schedule to be back this week. Otherwise...you're talking about two groups of sub-par safeties with not a whole lot of difference...unless Jackson is back. Again, Cards are getting their QB back, and...you've watched the NFL long enough to know you cannot POSSIBLY script this out with 9 weeks left in the season. Again, the Cards could VERY reasonably beat the Browns, Falcons, Texans, Rams, the Seahawks the last week of the season. Hell, they could beat the 49ers who have lost 3 straight to the Browns, Vikings, and Bengals. I'm not predicting the Packers end up with the 1st or 2nd pick...they could just as easily end up with the 12th, but your rationale in how you get there is deeply flawed claiming the Cards only have one possible win left...and trying to project the last half of the season. We just saw the Texans win the last game of the year last year. You could easily look at the Packers' schedule and say they've only got 1 or maybe 2 wins left. Given the huge dropoff in Love's play since their 2 wins in the first 3 weeks(mostly due to the OL getting hurt/struggling and the WRers being terrible). There is WAY too much season to go and WAY too many massive upsets nearly every week to be this confident about the Bears and Cardinals not winning more than 1-2 more games left.

They LITERALLY did NOT do the same thing I'm proposing(not even proposing, simply pointing out is plausible and would have an enormous impact on their prospects. You know how I know it's not the same thing(and the statement that it backfired on them the past TWO seasons? Did I say a word about signing 40-year-old aces? Or did I talk about a 25-year-old potential ace, the greatest player we've seen play Baseball in maybe ever, and then a middle-of-the-order 3B. Oh, and IT-DID-NOT-BACKFIRE-THE-PAST-TWO-SEASONS. They were a 101-win team two years ago. Last year they started losing extremely important players, including one of, if not the most dominant closer in baseball. But fine, lets use your "it backfired," logic. Every year the Brewers have ever played Baseball, including the year it was the Seattle Pilots, their moves backfired. There's no success other than winning a WS? Because 101 wins seems to do just fine. What's more, they took those 40-year-old aces who they signed and you're claiming I "literally" do the same thing again this year and they flipped them for multiple top prospects. I don't believe they did, I think you're taking what a guy who got fired said when explaining to Scherzer why they were trading him and used the transition year...EITHER way, you argue that the Brewers and Guardians are teams who are more likely to win soon. I'm saying the team that can spend 350M dollars and also has a strong farm system and is one year removed from a 101 win season is probably at least as likely...and in fact MORE likely. But tell me, the Brewers by ALL accounts are trading Burnes. So two teams, the Brewers will likely be trading their most valuable player, the Mets will almost certainly be in on some of the premiere talent in baseball in 2024 and even "they" said they don't "plan to contend in 2024," that still in no way supports your argument that they're CLOSER. The Brewers don't seem all that likely to contend in '24 if/when they trade Burnes. So not sure that was actually said and it's not a strong argument. And I'M saying the Mets added a LOT of talent at the deadline, they can spend literally 3X what the Brewers can spend and that more than makes up for the difference in the rankings of each respective farm systems. I'd also suggest if you look at where the Brewers system ranked last year. With SO many elite young talented players in LowA/A ball, they're a system that could rise quickly. But again, more importantly...the fact they can add a couple hundred million in salary. C'mon...you've been signing Stearns praises for years now(and so have I). But now it's the "he may struggle with TOO much money." Stearns was trading away his best players in advance or preparing to because he had financial restraints...and YET, he STILL took over a team everyone thought was looking at a rebuilding year, won 73 games, then 86 and then took the Brewers to Gm7 of the NLCS his 3rd year in Milwaukee. He signed big contracts...well, a big contract for the Brewers, not for the Mets. 5/85 is not a significant move for the Mets and hardly crippling. In any event, he took over a team with 1/3rd the payroll and a significantly worse farm system and by his 3rd season, he was a game away from the World Series. I am genuinely skeptical you believe this argument. No clue. I didn't argue one way or another about Counsell going to New York. I said the claim they were so much further away then the Brewers and Guardians is silly. Yes, we will. He's given more than enough to the Brewers...and I'm not going to hold a desire to win a WS against him a few years later if he didn't end up getting it done. Just as I didn't hold it against Molitor.

It's long. I don't know what's hard to follow. You're saying they're further away from the Brewers/Guardians and can't spend their way. I just outlined how they could easily spend their way there and wouldn't be less competitive than either team. 1-No, they did not backfire on them; They won 101 games two years ago and lost 2-1 to the Pads. They were besieged by injuries this year, almost from the start of the year. Saying it "backfired on them," would be like saying signing Counsell backfired on us. Why? Because they didn't win a WS? It's been 2 years and again, won 100+ in one of them. 2-So what? The Brewers don't have Woodruff, they're likely trading Burnes...oh, and the Mets can spend ~350M on their payroll and sign any 3-4 FAs they want(literally). That difference matters a bit more in how quickly you're going to build a contender. The Mets reshuffled last year, they cut some salary, added some prospects and made a huge jump. The Brewers having the #3-5 farm system is not the end all you are arguing. The nearly unlimited financial resources are at LEAST as big of a factor that's being overlooked because we want Counsell back. If he wants the best chance to win a Title, he won't be back in Milwaukee(and no, it won't made what he said about winning a title the last thing he needs to do ring hollow). I still believe he'll be back, I just think your logic is...flawed or maybe wishful thinking. I don't know which.

Dude...there are a ton of players we could have kept, signed, but didn't want to pay 3M more for. Corey Knebel after he went through TJ on the Brewers dime, then came back and threw really well. We had...what, 5-6 players making 5M or more last year. We had a 1B who hit 41 HRs, put up a ~.830 OPS and we non-tendered him because his salary was projected to go from 2.5 to 5.5 and then he ended up signing for 3.5. THAT was another purely financial decision. If you asked what stars we've lost, I don't know, but 3 million MORE? Yeah, we've lost players for that "little" amount. I'm guessing most we'll never know about. 3M is not the insignificant figure you're suggesting. Especially when it's ANOTHER 3M to some hypothetical player and you're claiming that we've never lost a player over a number that small... I'd actually imagine, particularly on the fringes, we've lost several players in this manner(Manny Pina for example).

This is where I disagree. Just in this thread I've seen several people state that the Brewers and Cleveland are in a better position. The Mets could EASILY go out and spend 100M this year(as in new salaries right now) in free agency. Would anyone really be THAT shocked if they signed Ohtani, Yamamoto and Chapman(for example). Hell, they could add Snell on top of that and still not be as high as last year. That's a middle-of-the-order bat who plays an elite 3B, a LHed power hitter(in year 1) who would be the top FA if he only hits, and then a potential young ace from Japan who's considered the #2 FA on the market now. They already have a lot of really good pieces, their payroll is pretty clean in '25 and they saved a lot last deadline. Their primary target; Based on TheAthletic.com projections(roughly)- That's a 10/500 for Ohtani 7/210 for Yamamoto 6/125 for Chapman With all the money they cleared? DH-Ohtani 1B – Pete Alonso 2B – Ronny Mauricio/McNeil SS – Francisco Lindor 3B – Matt Chapman CF-Brandon Nimmo| LF-Starling Marte-Drew Gilbert probably gets some time RF-D.J. Stewart Sengi, Yamamoto, Quintana, Snall, Tidwell a trade Diaz in the pen with Adam Ottavino, Brooks Raley I'll assume some Aroldis Chapman type signings, and They also have a VERY good farm system with little Acuna, a top ~40 prospect, Drew Gilbert, another trade deadline acquisition who was elite in AA. Maurico who's MLB ready at SS/2B, Prada who's coming up behind Alvarez(one of the elite prospects in the game a year ago) and a VERY big trade chip. Williams, another SS who's likely to be on the block. There is a LOT to work with before FA just by getting healthy and growing and then you consider their money and what they CAN do in FA and again, this is a team that won 100 games just a year ago(so the claim you can't spend your way to being a competitor is false). They could REALLY easily be back to a legitimate contender next year. You CAN buy yourself into contention....if you're willing to use it and Cohen is. And again, I touched very little on what's a very good, young farm system not so different from ours headed into last year with a LOT of young guys with high ceilings in A/AA who would be VERY attractive in a trade. They could absolutely end up beating ATL or Philly, especially in a series.

If the Brewers had traded Burnes, Woody and then Hader last year or the year before when their farm system was ranked in the mid to low 20s and then after two terrible years, they had the system they have RIGHT NOW, people would have considered that an exceptional rebuild. It seems very likely based on all the reporting that Counsell will be back.

I'd say normally any team NOT taking a QB but picking 1st or 2nd overall would trade that pick as they'd likely be able to get future 1sts, but... a team may value one of these players so highly. I don't think most of the players you mentioned would fit that criteria though. I think it'd be Harrison Jr, or Fashanu, maybe Alt based on the pre-draft process. I don't know if I'd pass on Maye(or Williams)....but I wouldn't go up and go out of my way to get either. I still really believe Love can be a good QB, he just needs talent around him. The rate at which guys are running the wrong routes or blowing blocking assignments, he's got no chance out there. We've seen the arm talent, we've seen the athletic ability...and if he truly sucks, we'll still suck after building an OL and another 12-player draft. I also really can't make an argument FOR passing up on either for Love. Maye's talent is... comparable from a physical standpoint as Love, he's more refined at this point and he'll be under contract for 5 years. Caleb Williams is a more athletic Aaron Rodgers type of player. Throws from all platforms, athletic. You can never count on someone being as good as Rodgers, but again, 5 years. Ultimately, you're just limited when you're OL is this bad and you don't have WRers who can be where they're expected to be WHEN they're expected to be. Watching the All-22 with Love really shows you just how many times it's not his fault and it's not even like if he was a superstar he could make the play, there's just nothing there. Maybe Lamar or someone who could run, but look at Mahomes in KC. He's the best QB in the league, but they're struggling offensively and they have Kelce and some vets(and an OL). Also, I see you have Latham and Mims listed among the top picks. I've seen Mims mocked in the ~late 1st-mid 2nd range. I expect that changes, but that's what I'm talking about. Packaging the 2nds to a team that wants to move back and taking Mims after Fashan/Alt. I think you could win with Justin Fields if you have a 1995 Dallas Cowboys OL. That has to be the focus IF you don't get that QB.

There really isn't any RT worth signing in FA. -Jonah Williams is a solid RT, but not a stud. -Tyron Smith is old and injured(and an LT, but I'm being generous). -Mekhi Becton is an absolute monster of a human, but not healthy and not an upgrade. Yosh Nijman may be the best OT available. I'm 100% all in on Fashanu or Alt(assuming both QBs and Harrison Jr. are gone) and then taking those 2nds and moving back up for a guy like Amarius Mims or Latham. A big, athletic RT. Your 2024 OL, Fashanu/Jenkins/Tom/?/Mims That's an OL with a guy being compared to Orlando Pace, a 6'7 360LB mobile RT who's a monster in the run game. Jenkins...who I'm not sure of at this point. He was a stud, he's not the same. But Tom at Center...I believe he'll be a Jason Kelce type at Center and RG is the easiest position to fill. Rasheed Walker may be a better fit inside. OR we'll still have our 2-3rds, 4th, 3-5ths, 2-6ths, and a 7th. That's 9 more shots to improve at RB, S, IOL, CB, and the permanent mandate, DL. ALWAYS take a DL if he's the BPA after the 1st rd. I'd consider Harrison Jr, Maye, or Williams, but it's unlikely we're high enough for any of those three. There's also no way you can know Love is or isn't the guy yet even if you get Caleb Williams or Maye. Interestingly, Maye is passing Williams on many mocks. I think Williams' problem at this level is that he's just bored or maybe it's that he's looking for the big play all the time. Could be a bad habit, but I saw him throw three picks scrambling and extending the play looking downfield more. But I've also seen enough where he takes those easy plays. This draft has 5-6 truly rare players. Williams and Maye, we all know. Harrison Jr is again, one of those once-in-a-generation type talents at WRer people talk about, but it's seldom true. In his case, 6'4, sub 4.4, with body control of his much smaller father. Fashanu- Again, compared to a HOF LT, Orlando Pace Alt- Just watch this dude play. He's 6'8, but he is athletic, he moves like a TE, but also resets the LOS, gets to the 2nd level, he absolutely DOMINATED JT Tuimoloau, a guy who's in most top 50s on the big boards and Jack Sawyer, an edge who's another NFL prospect. Brock Bowers- He's probably I've paid far less attention to the likes of Turner or Kool Aid or Verse from FSU. I don't think we're going edge or CB(or WRer other than Harrison Jr).

Yes! In the outside zone scheme, you have landmarks. On the "wide zone," which is basically the entire core of our offense, it's what everything is predicated off, you're "landmark," is about 1 yard outside the OT and 1 yard behind the OT. So you're running at that angle, the OL is blocking their zone(more difficult than a more simple, power iso scheme for the OL, but better) and you look for the cutback. Or ideally you get outside, but good teams set the edge. Dillon did that fine. Put a foot in the ground or a little jump cut and then got his shoulders square and got moving North and South and hit that hole hard. That was in limited action as a rookie and in his 2nd year. The last two...just sticking with that one play for example, he's just running into his OT or if there's a TE who's blocking down, he's running into that pile and he doesn't have the feet to make people miss in a phone booth. He's got no patience so he's not seeing the hole and he has never had quick enough feet to be that elusive type of back like Jones. So what are you left with? Not even John Kuhn. Kuhn was just punishing in his limited snaps.

Eh, you're just picturing track guys. Think about most RBs or DBs. 5-10, 204 is normal. Speed comes in lots of sizes other than fat. What's Trout? 6'1 240? He's thick and a burner. But I think his stealing bags is mostly the result of his good base running.

Ahhh...ok. Now that makes more sense. I was curious why he wasn't listed on MLB Trade Rumors projected arbitration salaries...but he was just a flat out FA. Ok, that changes things and makes sense. In any event, good to have him back.

Yes...if he were a FA, I'd agree. But he wasn't. Year 1 of arbitration. I'm not complaining, I'm just saying that's more than I thought. It's also 4.5M GTD if the 5.5M option isn't picked up.

He was in his first year of arbitration. How much do you think a 33-year-old pitcher who just had his career year...-with a 4.55 ERA -is worth?

Huh...that seems a bit steep for a guy going into his first year of arbitration at 33 with a negative war coming into this season.

I like your write-ups Clancy...you view some prospects a bit...differently putting more stock in MiLB stats than tools, kinda flipped from conventional wisdom, and I know you catch a little flak for it-especially when you have some Loogy as the #1 prospect-but whatever. The only thing...I've seen you put guys like Dorrian into both 2B and 3B, so why not...Baez, Boeve for example, or even Pratt? These are players who are at least potential 3B. Feels like you're missing quite a few guys who probably end up(or at least possibly if they develop) at 3B.

I haven't got the first clue... 4.90 FIP, propped up a bit by our D(but every starter was). Solid K rate, lower WHIP. 5M a year seems like a reasonable number for a guy who threw ~120 IP as a #4-5 pitcher, but his first year in arbitration, I'd say 2M and then a TO for 4.5 with a very minimal buyout(the 250K). So just south of what you said. He guarantees he makes a couple of million as a 33-year-old pitcher with a -.5 WAR coming into last season. Feels like this has to be team-friendly to get this done this early.

Let's just think about this for a second. We're going to trade Burnes, for a package built around a 24-year-old SS who is coming off a .712 OPS and at age 23...posted a .547 OPS and a .7 WAR(edit) and we're going to play him at 2B to replace our 23-year-old SS who posted a....585 OPS and a 1.6 WAR as a rookie? That's +.6 WAR from what rookie Turang produced for Corbin Burnes...? I'd roll the dice, hope that these other hitters coming up can produce and Turang can grow and develop into, if not a impact player, a nice complimentary player. I do believe Turang has the place discipline and bat-to-ball skills to be at least as good as '24 Perdomo. Edit-Perdomo actually put up a .7 WAR last year when he was 23 and a 2.2 WAR this year, his 3rd in the league vs Turang's 1.6 WAR.

Note to self; Scroll down so you can see two others have made the exact same point in a much more succinct manner idiot😁

Yeah, again, it's not a good example. Singleton wasn't a top 50 prospect. Find comparable talents to Chourio, then tell me which of THOSE players have failed. That'd be a more compelling case...because I'm struggling to see it. Bryan Buxton would be closer, but still not that guy(he was ranked that highly though). Using his stats in AA and AAA vs Hiura? Even at the MLB level. He was 18-19. Players who have done that are in a VERY rare group and Jon Singleton or Keston Hiura are not in that group. Hiura was a HS Sr/College freshman. Singleton was a 1B-only, limited athlete who at 21 was putting up a sub .700 OPS in the MiLB. I'd think the Nats would have loved to have locked up Soto before or very shortly after he was promoted. I think the bottom end of what Chourio will be is an elite OFer defensively who hits for power even if there's swing and miss. So a .250/.320/.520 type hitter who can play elite defense, the upside is...Acuna Jr. Though the Braves DID sign Acuna Jr after a ROY season, and we've seen elite prospects bust, so I get the trepidation and I see why you hold your opinion. I just think some guys, a very rare few are different and you see it before they play in the Big Leagues. If we had Jackson Holliday, I'd be arguing for the same thing. An elite SS such as him... Again, I suspect the Brewers will choose to go your route.

Right...I get what you're saying. Prospects crash. But there's a difference between Gomez, a top ~50 prospect(actually, never quite top 50) and even a Frelick/Hiura who were top ~25 vs a #1/2 type. I'd say in terms of prospect status this is more like when Trout, Harper and Matt Moore were 1-2-3 in varying orders. I mean, it's not like we're saying give this monster deal to Frelick, Quero(who I think is actually a bit underrated), Misiorowski... What Chourio has done at the high levels at the age he's at, PLUS his defense, speed, and all-around talent, it's not comparable to really anyone we've EVER had. It's unprecedented for our franchise(Yount went straight up in an entirely different era). I guess it'd be like Sheffield, but we all know his issues with the org. But that type of offensive production...as a 5 tool CFer? If you're not gonna pay this kid, you don't pay anyone. He's with Wander Franco, Julio Rodriguez, Griffey Jr, Soto...he's in a group of players where I really can't find someone who failed. Royce Lewis MAYBE? He was approximating that level of prospect before he had a couple of ACL injuries. There is ALWAYS a reason you can find to NOT give a big contract to a player. That's obvious. I think in this case, there are more arguments for a small-market Brewers team to pay him. Otherwise, you're forced to trade him at the point Acuna Jr is at right now...or when the Nats traded Soto. And while it's an incredible problem to have, I'd rather the Brewers have another homegrown talent who comes up with us, develops, and turns into an MVP-caliber player through his prime than...2-3 years of a 20-23-year-old star, then start the "when do we trade him and for how much," type trade discussions we've had with Hader, Burnes. I get the other perspective...and I really don't believe they do sign him before the season starts. MAYBE a shot that he signs 2 months in assuming a monster run in AAA knowing it'll now be 7 years before he's a FA, but...we'll see.

I don't think a Acuna Jr type contract would get it done...I think 10/150 2 option years plus escalators may get it done however. An MVP, GG, etc...and he gets significant incentives. It's risky for the team, but if you want a player like this hitting in the middle of your lineup from 20-30...this is probably what you'd have to do. The Acuna Jr deal though...next to the Albies deal, they were both viewed as bad deals for the players right away. Albies worse than Acuna Jr, but we'll see. I don't see the Brewers committing this type of money to a player this young, they'll want to wait until he's proven more...then usually they can see Free Agency coming like with Burnes and it's too late. BUT...we'll see. I'd love to see it and I think it'd make a lot of sense.

There's a huge chasm between a Hiura-type prospect(more like a Frelick in status) vs a Chourio/Acuna Jr/Holliday/Rodriguez-type prospect.

I just don't love the idea that because you haven't had bats, you use your pitchers to add bats moving forward. Feels like we've been addressing bats the last few years in the draft or in trades, adding young talent...now what we need to do is trade with a team that's got young pitching but doesn't want to wait for it to develop. Dodgers, Phils...there are obviously others. The Rangers(though.,.if you win the WS, you can get more patient with those young arms...or maybe you double down, I don't know).

I was learning that way even with Woody(but also happy to see them run it back as I can't be mad at a team trying to win). But Burnes, Adams, Williams...I'd look to trade, add controllable talent for '25.

Yes, Benkert actually provides context beyond, "what are they doing," and "Love sucks." That was bad. I heard this game was worse. I'm still taking Caleb Williams(he'll be a Bear or Cardinal( or maybe Drake Maye...zero chance on JJ McCarthy) if we can, otherwise, Fashanu, Alt...build the smart way. Now, you can also trade back up, add a pick in the ~15 range for another elite OT in this elite draft class.