BrewerFan

People cannot seriously keep saying because of ONE pick, the Packers weren't sacrificing parts of the future to go all in and win a SB. The Packers spent about 90M more in players salaries last year than what the cap was. That's money that, one way or another, they'll have to account for in the future. Same the year before. How about the massive off-season spending when Gutey took over(when they also tried to sign Robinson). The absolutely sacrificed the future to help Rodgers win...and to be clear, Rodgers took his SECOND record setting deal before we drafted Love. So why would he sacrifice money to help his team win? Simple...because it looks good now. It makes him look like Brady. After being outrated when reports surfaced that he wanted to be the highest paid by a "significant margin," at 50M a year on a 4/200M deal...he signed a 3 year 158M deal, fully GTD. The Packers were doing as much as JUST about any other team to win now the last 2-3 years. The 2020 Love pick does not negate that.

He set a record for highest paid player in the NFL 3 times in his career. No, he was never doing them any favors. And that last contract, the one that kicked in right when they drafted Love, that ended up being a MUCH larger deal than the original record setting contract as they ended up voiding the final year of it....so that's why we're swimming in a 40M dollar dead cap hit. The Love part is really another sign of the pettiness IMO. If he's have just kept balling out, done anything financially to help the Packers, communicated with the FO directly rather than passive aggressively through his agent or then aggressive-aggressively during a ranting press conference and said he wanted to play "several more years," he'd still be the Packers QB, Adams would be here, maybe not Watson, but maybe Alec Pierce, whoever. It's all worked out fine, but he acts like there was this grand plan and I think the Packers just took the guy they thought was the best player. It's happened before to great QBs like Elway, Young, whoever...and it'll happen again. I'm really just kinda over him at this point. And I'll get over that in 4-5 years when he gets his jersey retired here.

We're guessing what the Brewers are making, but we have a pretty good idea what they're spending. It's closer to 140 on their payroll(*145 for the luxury tax). It's not 105. You're also not accounting for the ~11.5M they just spent on draft bonuses, the 6.5M on IFA bonuses, the money they're spending on the scouting department. You're just taking their payroll, you're shorting it by quite a bit, and then taking what the estimated revenue is and subtracting the two and saying Mark Attansio, who again, does not own even 50% of the team, is going to be clearly 150M dollars this year. That's...outrageous. I don't believe the Brewers will have a net revenue of 150M dollars this season, I don't believe they have a net revenue of 50M this year. I can't disprove it as...again, they don't disclose their finances, but I would be willing to bet it's closer to 1/10th of that. As for the NFL, those numbers are public. The Packers got nearly 380M to start last year just from TV money to start the league year. That's a wildly different set up than MLB has. ALL TV money is pooled and distributed. The only real advantage you have in the NFL is luxury boxes...which isn't subject to revenue sharing and then of course investments. And their salary cap is still being artificially suppressed due to the Covid-19 losses from '20. They're on a 4 year repayment plan, so the cap would be significantly higher than it is...(though I'm honestly not sure how this relates to the Brewers). Though the salary cap is more like a suggestion in the NFL than a hard cap. The Packers spent 310M last year on salaries I believe. You can always stay ahead of the cap if you have enough cash(not that it's a good idea, but you can as the Saints have shown or the Packers the last several years). The Bucks have 3 billionaires who own them. The Brewers have one guy who's not a billionaire who owns just under 40%(I believe it's in the high 30s). But none of this really matters when it comes to how the Brewers allocate their resources. I think you're wildly overestimating their net operating income.

I can't imagine that's much of an issue given Frelick has plenty of speed.

And a pre-emptive congratulations on the billion dollar megabucks!

That's all fair, but lets also keep in mind, this was a guy who we'd resigned ourself to being a .252/.355/.383 .738 OPS type hitter with poor LF defense just a year ago. I don't agree this is a sign of a team that's "this is the sign of selling this team goodbye franchise." Especially if that money is used for Chourio OR as I I think it's more of a sign of this is a team that wants to keep their young home grown stars and ensuring they're hear for the long haul and throughout their prime.... And I explain it very simply. We have 4 OFers who were top prospects and who are all VERY young, and the franchise wants to lock them up long term. But sure, that'd be a problem. You sign your young phenom to a 12 year deal(again, just using Julio Rodriguez deal)...I think that assuages some of those fans concerns. I guess you have to balance that against getting out from under the 136.5M Yelich is still owed in full and if you think we're an 70 win team without Yelich, we're a...what, 75 win team with him? I knew when I asked this was just about the worst time to float this idea. It's not going to happen if he struggles again. But, it's a poll...and I was looking for opinions, so thanks! I'd really hate doing it, but I'd be able to rationalize it(Especially if we we able to sign Woody for a year). But fans would have a reflexively angry response to it. But they're almost always angry and they were angry for being "stupid enough" to sign Yelich after the knee injury...when I believe it's his back that's caused the issue, which is another reason that I'D personally advocate for this. But...it would get your fanbase nice and pissed off coming off a big year. A year that's trending toward a 6 WAR season.

Right. I was thinking about the Julio Rodriguez deal. If you're giving him the standard 5-10M SB, then a 1M salary, 2M, 5M, then it jumps up to 15, 20, 25 and option years, does he have incentive to do that? He'll hit FA around 26-27(it would seem). And it's not just Chourio...though he's the most obvious. I want to go all in on this philosophy. I think they should try and sign all of them early, as I've said. Quero, Frelick, Wiemer, Turang...but they're obviously not all in the same position and they wouldn't all require anywhere near the same type of commitment.

Julio Rodriguez. I've seen SO many articles calling for Acuna Jr to hold out and wondering will he(all mention how exceptionally rare that is) because he signed such a terrible deal. For some reason, I don't see those about Albies. But I think Julio Rodriguez is probably a pretty good outline. 12/209 https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/seattle-mariners/julio-rodriguez-23850/ The contract just blows up with the incentives. I'd stay away from that. But you see why there could be an issue with Yelich's contract. Rodriguez gets paid very early on here...BUT it also stays pretty flat. In 4-5 years, that 18M is going to look like an absolute drop in the bucket.

Maybe it'll help to reference Julio Rodriguez contract...which we may well come in under, but seems like it's probably a fairly decent comp for a player like Chourio. IF-IF we signed Chourio to a deal comparable to this, you'd have two OFers making a significant amount of money at the same time for the small market Brewers https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/seattle-mariners/julio-rodriguez-23850/ And I did mention in my original post, this could be money we could MAYBE spend on a Woodruff extension since our OF would appear to be covered, but lets just keep this about Chourio and Yelich for now.

How are signing bonuses irrelevant? This isn't the NFL where teams are flush with cash. The Brewers operate on a limited budget. If they're going to pay out a 15M dollar signing bonus(just for example) that money has to come from that years budget. How can you say it's irrelevant? And I just gave you Julio Rodriguez's extension outline. His salary is 4M this year(with the SB=19) and then it's 10M next year and then the rest of his contract is 18M per year. Again, you're operating under the assumption that the contract would approximate what he'd make as he works his way through arbitration and...it's very unlikely it would. He's not going to make 1M for a few years, then 10/15/20 and then some 30M dollar years to buyout FA. Or at least we don't HAVE to structure it like that. He's a unique player. This isn't like a Peralta, Ashby type extension. The early money may be what convinces him to take that long term deal and it'd keep the backend of the deal VERY reasonably priced. So if it were to be structured anything like Yelich, by ~26(which will not be his first year up) he'd be making 18M and Yelich would have 3 more years at 26M(22 cash, the rest deferred). And of course there's just the simple fact that a team like the Brewers are going to be more apt to make an aggressive offer early on if they DON'T have a player who plays the same position making similar money as Yelich in his final 3-4 years of the deal. Again, I understand if people just want to keep Yelich as it looks like he's turned a corner(which is a fairly substantial risk with his back injuries and his age) and just don't want to trade him. But that's 130M dollars the Brewers are currently on the hook to spend that they wouldn't be if they traded him. Of COURSE the two have some relation....

That's...just not true. It's likely to cost a significant amount to get him to sign. Julio Rodriguez in his 12/209M extension got 15M in a signing bonus, 4M this year, 10 next year and then 18M per each year of what would be his arbitration. That's likely a big part of the reason he agreed to sign. Because the money wasn't all backloaded. So I don't see how you can say the money we'll be paying Yelich through...what, 2042, has "zero impact" on Chourio. You're using the typical service time salaries and...that's just not likely how you're going to be able to sign Chourio. There's also the fact that...as Chourio is going to get expensive, Yelich will be expensive and in his late 30s. So THAT is also going to impact a Chourio contract. And that's not even discussing possible extensions for others who it may be a good idea to dangle a little signing bonus to entire them to sign like Quero. The Brewers have a finite amount of money, so OBVIOUSLY if they save some from one area, it can help them reallocate that money to another area. Sure, maybe the Brewers can do both. Saying it has "zero impact?" That's just not true. Finally...isn't the entire financial ideology of the Brewers to sell high? Before this year, I saw arguments that there was no way the Brewers could get out from under his deal, -160M in surplus by one poster going back and looking at it. Anyway, I made my case. If people don't want to, I respect that. Not like it actually matters as it's just a opinion poll. But of course it impacts how else we allocate our limited resources.

I'm still very much hoping he takes a job he's previously turned down...

It is incredibly obnoxious and infuriating in my opinion. The talk about how GREAT it is to be around a FO like the Jets that treats him so great and the communication is there...fine, That's his new team. All the "this is definitely more than a one year thing, they committed to me," also annoying given he's set the record for highest paid player in NFL history THRICE. But again, ok. New team. But NOW after 18 years with the Green Bay Packers, he takes a 35 MILLION dollar pay cut while bleaing the Packers for every last cent? That's his right, good for the Jets...but had he been willing to do that in Green Bay, Davante Adams could have still been here(and they could have kept Douglas, Campbell, etc...). It doesn't damper my outlook on this team and how I'm excited, but it does show me that sooo much of this was truly about his ego. The Jets are willing to cater to him and everything he wants and I don't think he loses a penny at the end of the day, but he'll certainly help the team. Sure, we should focus on the Packers, but...this feels like a slap in the face. Which I suppose was the entire point. The famous "chip on his shoulder," it's now aimed at the Packers, winning another SB and proving that if only we had better management, he'd have won more. I am going to root for them to go 5-12 SOOO hard...so long as he gets ~715 snaps.

This is very clearly a contingency plan. If they can't get what they're looking for on the market, they'll give those two a try. Or at very least, see how he can handle the position. I suspect he's been practicing there or getting work there before the game. 0-5...which doesn't tell me much with just one AB.

I'm just skeptical of Bellinger. I look at his exit velo, his hard hit% and they're all DOWN...yet he's having this magnificent resurgence? On the other hand, Yelich...his exit velo and hard hit rate, they've been pretty good throughout his 3 years(his LA plummeted, but that's about it). By those numbers, 2020 should have been Yelich's best year. BUT still...Bellinger is ~25% lower hard hit rate than Yelich, his exit velo is at his career low ~87 MPH...his BB rate is almost the lowest in his career. I think if we trade for Bellinger, we're giving up a key prospect and getting 2020-2022 Cody Bellinger. I completely understand why people want him. The only way he could be a more perfect hit(based on his production thus far) is if he was a right handed hitter and even THEN he's got a line of 344.400.644 1.044 vs LHPing this year. So go get him I guess? Who are we gonna give up? Freddy Zamora? Maybe Zamora+ someone for Bellinger and Mancini? You hope the later can turn it around, but you give up less to take on the salary? I don't know if that's feasible. Candelario conversely, he's got reverse splits as well. Though he hits better on the road, so that may bode well. And he's +5 OAA this year. It's hard for me to go through ALL the defensive metrics and evaluate a player, so I tend to lean on that. Now, would the Cubs give up Bellinger to the Brewers while they're not completely out of the race for anything less than a Moore type prospect? What will it cost to get Jeimer Candelario from the Nats when you account for the teams that'll be vying for him? It's PRETTY easy to see what Arnold is talking about. Not that he's "Hesitant to add a bat," it's that he's hesitant to add the few bats that are available for inflated prices while damaging the leagues best run prevention unit. But sure, you(not you, the Royal you) could dumb it down to "hesitant to add a bat."

One reason the Dodgers system ALWAYS looks so damn loaded...is they're not calling guys up early. They let them force their way into the lineup, they're not called up out of necessity. I made a thread people...generally disagreed with talking about trading Yelich after this year to move the contract and the main thinking was...if you can lock those guys up(And Quero certainly belongs in there) and you have a core that's locked in long term, you've just got these guys coming in waves. I'd include Frelick, Wiemer...Turang in that list. At the price I'd like to see Frelick and Turang at this point, it's probably not in their interest since they got 1st round money, but Wiemer? 8 years, say 40M with 2 option years and then you can build in incentives. 30, 40 HRs...make it so he CAN earn another 10-12M. I don't know how realistic that is, but I really believe if you do this with our best prospects, even if one turns out to be a Hiura type...you'll still be coming out well ahead.

We don't have a replacement for Yelich in the pipeline? Yeah, we most certainly do. Frelick, Chourio, Wiemer, Mitchell...Black could also be an OFer and Carlos Rodriguez is also in AA and while not a power hitter, certainly another competent OFer. And those are just players likely to be on the roster within the next year. And it's not so much a "problem," but allocation of resources. I'd rather see 130M going to a long term extension for Chourio to early in his career ala Wander Franco(rather than Julio Rodriguez...I don't think that is feasible). It's also about selling high. In the last 4 years, Yelich has had ONE really good year and it's this one. Again, to start the season, I saw people talking about how he had -100M in Surplus value and if you included him in a Burnes trade, you'd basically just be trading Burnes to unload that salary. So we have all 3 OF positions covered and we're more like two deep with very young players and one player who may be the best prospect the Brewers have EVER had in their system.

I don't know if that's true. Just to make this point again, but IF he were a FA this off-season...what do you think he'd go for? I think 5/110 would be about the minimum given the lack of impact FAs. So MAYBE you have to eat the deferred money, but I don't think so. I think 5/130 is pretty close to what he'd get. I guess it's all speculative anyway and I don't think there's any real chance we trade him. I don't actually expect GMs to think like this. He'll be a Brewer until he retires. And he will almost certainly at LEAST be the player he was last year and that's not killing you at 22M a year(plus the deferred money). What a difference 4 months makes in fan perception though.

They do have a ridiculous amount of high upside pitchers. The Dodgers and Rays are the systems we should be trying to emulate(and I think we are).

So just to be clear, you'd be thrilled trading a guy like Chourio for Lourdes Gurriel Jr? The future is the future...and it's generally a good idea to plan for it. I sincerely hope you are not a financial advisor! "Nah, go ahead, get that Lamborghini Huracan now. What's 200K? The future will be what it'll be! Who needs a retirement fund!"

Eloy Jiménez, CF...book it! Yeah, that whole..."catching the ball," thing is nice, but what has defense or run prevention ever really gotten? It's not as cool as a good bat flip. Also, I remember Yount saying LF was actually more difficult than CF. So you take away any netting for the graceful Jimenez to get caught in and just let him play CF. Done and Done....though he's not an AS, so it's still kinda small thinking. -Ok, I did put this in blue font, but it didn't show up. I may have hit reply too quickly. So...just read it in the OBVIOUS blue font it should be in!

This is effectively the proposition. A salary dump for the most part. Get back a couple of young arms that have some upside, but not top 100 prospects. Just young, talented arms...probably rookie ball guys. Just lottery tickets. The fact that the exit velocity never really matched the down years, I get why fans want to keep him. Again, I'm just looking at where this team will be in 2-3 years and where his value was just this past off-season. So I understand why people don't want to move a guy who not only committed to this team at below market rates and who wants to be here. Still a bit surprised at the poll, but...I suppose that's the point.

Yeah. I'm not completely sold on Misiorowski being a future Burnes or Woodruff, but I don't know that we need that. I'm sold on it if he can get the innings in and throw 110IP in AA next year. I'm a little worried that he's so good he's going to move quickly, be a part of our pen as soon as this year and then we're kinda in that Ashby area with him spending a few years wanting to do what's best with the team but not fully developing him. BUT...the way the Brewers find these arms who are competent and just looking back to Counsel's NLCS run, I think we've ignored what got us there and decided we need two guys in the top 5 in Cy Young voting in order to win. We've got a BP that will have Williams, Uribe, Payamps, Peguero and who the hell else in a year or two. Peralta, Gasser, hopefully Ashby is good(I'd be letting him sit until next STing after having shoulder surgery, but I'm also ignorant as to the nature of it, just nothing scarier for a pitcher than shoulder surgery). After that, you could have Misirowoski obvious, Carlos Rodriguez, maybe Jarvis, Small. Not giving up on either yet, look at Rich Hill's early years. And we find pitchers who have just that one thing that needs to be corrected and work with them SO well, it's just such a luxury. We're not in Rays territory yet...but we're DEFINITELY trending in that direction more than we've ever been in franchise history.

2026?!? I think it's far more likely Chourio is in the OF playing everyday June of 2024. He's already in AA and raking. 2026 would be 2 more years in the minors(and you're saying that'd be the soonest by saying at LEAST) I think that is incredibly unlikely and would mean something has gone very wrong in his progress. Especially given how we'll he's hitting in AA now.