BrewerFan

Well,... we're kinda at a crossroads here, then, aren't we? If statistics are the same as lies and damn lies, then... why would you want to see a stat that disabused you of your preconcieved notions? But, being as you said you haven't seen a stat that says he was clutch, let me provide a simple, more dumbed down version than Svuem; 2 out RISP-Pretty clutch when you have men on 2nd and 3rd and there are 2 down and ONLY a hit scores a run(or WP, but... you know what I'm saying). .349 .404 .535 .939 So he hit ~350 there, 400+ OBP(keeping the inning going) and he hit for quite a bit of power. High leverage spots. ~100 PAs .325 .421 .475 .896 Or just good old fashion RISP .295 .369 .474 .843 That's pretty clutch. Not sure what you'd want more than that... but he came up with big hits in big spots regularly for us.

When have the Brewers traded a guy with 3 years of team control coming off a 8.7 WAR and a 4.7 WAR season for a "utility player, nominal arm and a red chip prospect?" Also... you kinda contradict yourself here. They need to upgrade Ortiz or Perkins and then... you don't think Duran is good enough. Duran is a REALLY good player. Not great, but I'd trade him for Frelick... if he wasn't arbitration eligible. Just production wise, I'd roll the dice on Duran over Frelick. And given his bat speed and hitting from the left side, I don't think the Home/Road splits would be as big of an impact.

I suppose a healthy Garrett Mitchell COULD give you what Duran did. I think it's... extremely unlikely due to his strikeouts, but in this scenario, he stays healthy... if he does, you'd be wise to then trade him. 4 years, he's been injured. I'm not sure if it's the Type 1 diabetes. Maybe that's why he's had issues with his shoulder. It takes longer to heal, but in any event, he's lost out on so much developmental time. He's still a guy who K's a LOT... when he's out there. But that's fine. I don't think we need to rely on Mitchell. We have options and you can go with Mitchell, see if he can stay healthy. If he can't... you've got depth. I also don't see that trade package being close to enough to get Duran. I think that's the narrative, but... he got back from that and we were going with Chourio, Perkins, Frelick in the OF. He slumped, but he also got more sporadic playing time. I think he's a fine OF option. Perkins probably has one more year before we move on to Lara in CF, younger, he'll be cheaper and I think he's got more upside. I'd also imagine Luke Adams gets some reps in LF. He's a pretty solid athlete with a good arm. Tyler Black, I'm not writing him off(I'm not writing him IN to the lineup either, but... we can see how it goes). Bauers should play some in LF. He's a good defender with a big arm and walks a lot. I think this is the year Chourio turns into a superstar and Frelick is already a very good player who is not a star due to his limitations, but a key contributor. So that and how much it'd take to get Duran...(again, 8.7 WAR and 4.7 WAR, that's better than Turang the last two years... or Contreras or any Brewers). Would any of us want to trade that package for... Greg Weissert(Mears), Garrett Whitlock(Ashby, even with the similar contract) and Connlley Early(Robert Gasser). If you'd pass on that deal, ask why the Red Sox would accept our package for Duran? It's... probably unlikely.

That's not a list of DL trips. The problem with Marte isn't that he's injured, it's that you went from discussing a utility IFer to discussion arguably the best 2B in the game who is signed to a long term deal. It's kinda like 'the Brewers could use a LHed pitcher to eat some innings," and someone says 'Quintana is a good option,' and then someone says, 'I'd prefer Skubal.' Well...yeah, of course. Probably not feasible though.

Yeah, they also show a .538 BA this year across ONE SEASON. I think we're all pretty capable of searching Baseball Ref. I'm also well aware of his age, but if you're going to say "he's not that young," you're talking about his age 23 and 24 seasons... which is pretty young. And his bat is NOT the reason he's not had an extended look. Bad timing and being limited to a defensive position is, but AGAIN... as I pointed out in my post, he's one of about 9 options(that's hyperbole before you genuinely ask me the other 8, it's actually about 4-5 options) who could play 1B if Vaughn struggles... and for whatever reason, you made your take about how much worse the Brewers were going to be exclusively about Tyler Black. Also, the argument that they won't be as good because they got hot a couple times last year and when they got hot Vaughn hit really well... you do remember that Chourio(born in 2004 as this is how we're talking about age now) was injured that month, right? In other worse Tyler Black was ONE small point in a much larger one. Still #1 in BA, OBP, one of the best staffs that will almost certainly be better this year(deeper at least) going into the year. A deep BP. And we're coming off 3 straight division titles. We've lost Burnes and Adames, Williams... but I suppose there an argument to be made that losing star players leads to the Brewers getting better.. but keeping them! Well... keeping them leads to... you getting worse!

Perfectly valid when you're writing an article starting at when he was drafted and working forward to answer the question posed in the article, "Is 2026 a make or break season for Garrett Mitchell." But aside from that, which of those tools are not applicable to him? If the majority of the article hadn't' been about his injury history, it'd be out of place, but that's what it was about. He's never shown the ability to stay healthy. I wouldn't waste him in AAA if he can this year. If he can stay healthy and he's productive... great. Use him and then trade him.

Yeah, that's... exactly the type of player I'd LOVE to see the Brewers add. Then you could move on from Mears(if you really wanted to). He's the type of guy who at best would have an opt out if signed to an MiLB deal. But FB in the upper 90s and a GB pitcher? Not a closer, but a good BP arm, especially if he was signed for cheap.

You DO realize we led the NL in BA, OBP, 2nd in runs... but you think that when Vaughn struggled... we struggled? Do you have anything to back that up? It's interesting, I mentioned Tyler Black among SEVERAL other players who MAY play 1st next year and that's not only who you focus on, but you compared him to Joey Wiemer? You realize that Black... in a very limited sample size, had a .538 OBP last year, right? There's virtually nothing he and Wiemer have in common and he was but ONE player. So again, doesn't have to be Black... but it IS a bit foolish to dismiss him at this point. He was a top 50 prospect a year prior, but now he'll NEVER amount to anything and you've determined that at age 24? Isn't it funny how they do that every year?

Yeah, I wouldn't bet the over on 97 wins, but, it's saying that we're not going to come close. Like this is an 85 win team and we need to "reboot." We started the season very poorly last year and then we really coasted at the end because we could. We had 4 of the top 7 rookies in the league last year. I'm never going to bet on a team winning more than 97 games, but that's part of the story. They could win 95 games and be a better team. In fact, look at the Pirates and Reds rotations? I think this team will be better than last years team, AND they'll have a much more difficult inter division schedule. The Cubs aren't going to just crumble, though I don't think they'll be as good. The Cards should be the worst team in the division. But you could face the Pirates and get Paul Skenes, Jared Jones and Bubba Chandler. Or the Reds and get Hunter Greene, Chase Burnes, Andrew Abbot. They've got really good pitching. Still, I don't see ONE area on this team that should be worse next year(as of today). I do see several area's we should be appreciably better. This is a young team. SP-I could see Peralta having a worse year... and still being a better staff. Misiorowski should be held to 130-140 innings in the regular season and a couple of breaks(maybe a "sore ankle" or whatever). Chourio- Does ANYONE really think we've seen his peak? Or even anything close to it? Ortiz-He was a better player in '24. I doubt he'll have a terrible BB% and BABIP with his speed and patience. 1B-Vaughn came over and didn't just get lucky. He was far more selective and there's a reason he was the #3 pick in the draft as a 1B. C-I don't think we'll get worse here and we could very well get better. Contreras and Quero. Farm System-There are several guys who could step up and contribute. Where are we likely to get worse? I think next years team will be more talented. I don't know exactly how many wins they'll have though.

Yeah, he could be. Collins has much better bat speed and walks at a higher rate. I'd like to see what Collins does over a 2nd year. I don't really blame him for his Sept struggles(and it was primarily limited to Sept) as he started to get sporadic playing time. We have multiple players who can play SS, guys who can play 2B. 3B is pretty much the only place we don't have a backup, Wilken might get the call if he hits well, otherwise it'd be Monasterio. When you look at their careers, the gap between Monasterio and McKinstry is not that large. certainly not worth dealing Megill. I really can't imagine why he's even being discussed. If he were a pending FA and due to make 7-8M a year, sure. But he's making 4-4.5M and not due to be a FA. I've not once seen a team that has too many high leverage relievers. Too many guys who throw 100 and can just overpower the other team. I'll roll the dice that Megill stays healthy next year rather than trade for a guy who has had one solid year.

He had ONE year. His career line before last year at 30 with Detroit is .220/.285/.357 and an OPS of .643. Comparing an everyday players WAR to a Closers is... kinda silly. Josh Hader had ONE year with a WAR over 2.8. Closers have lower WAR's. Get into Oct and see who's more important, a high leverage reliever or hoping that at 31 years old a utility man can replicate the one above average season he's had? Or... just don't trade him! We brought him in because he had such a big arm. He hadn't had much success. He's thrown VERY well for the Brewers. Progressively better. Now for... really no discernible reason, in a year in which we're trying to build off a 97 win season and an NLCS appearance, we're going to trade him? I don't understand that.

Baltimore is not going to trade Basallo for Freddy Peralta. I don't like to speak in absolutes... but they're absolutely NOT trading the guy they just signed to an 8 year extension with an additional team option at 20 years old... and then turn around and trade him for a rental. His comp is Yordan Alvarez... but at catcher. Would you make that trade if it was the Brewers? Would you trade... Jesus Made for one year of Freddy Peralta? That's roughly what you'd be asking of the O's. Made may have more upside(may) but Basallo is under team control through 2035.

Yeah, and again, not just Woodruff. Priester starts the season with the Brewers, Misiorowski will be there all year, Gasser, Henderson... the whole staff is back save for Quintana and you have several young arms who they don't have room for. They'll be in AAA getting work and ready to step in at any point in time. I don't know how you look at this team and think 'no chance they'll be as good next year.' I can't say they'll win 97 games. We have no idea what'll happen next year with injuries or who'll have a break out season. Pretty hard to look at Misiorowski and how he finished up the year and think HE won't have a huge impact. Even if we were looking at 2027, I'd say I think we'll be pretty damn good, but I could see the argument. We lost Burnes. Won more games. We lost Adames. Won more games. We win 97 games, we lose NOBODY, we have several young, talented players=No way we'll be able to replicate their 97 win season??? Ok.

Please explain how you arrive at this conclusion? SPing We lose-Quintana We gain- A full year of Misiorowski, Woodruff(or at least 100 more IP). Priester for the whole year. Patrick won't be a rookie, Myers was much better when he came back. Gasser, again, healthy and should be available all of next year. Logan Henderson. That's on top of Peralta. BP-Unless we actually trade someone, again, everyone we want is back. Megill, Uribe, Ashby, Koenig, Hall, Mears, Anderson, Zastryzny... and then a slew of arms in AA and AAA. Wichrowski may be able to step in and contribute or maybe not. But I'm going go guess between he, Crow, Hardin, Hunt...Yoho, Bukauskas(I wouldn't count on him to replace a high leverage arm, but I wouldn't dismiss him). So.... we lose absolutely nothing, but we should be BETTER across the board. IF-We bring back EVERYONE. We bring back the 1B who had a great 60 games with the Brewers, but we get him the WHOLE year. We also have Adams, Wilken in AA who were dominant in AA... which is 1 step away from the Big League team. Throw in Black, Boeve, Burke, Fischer... any of whom could potentially step in and help at 1B if Vaughn doesn't play well. OF-Again, literally EVERYONE back. Chourio at 22... probably hasn't peaked(don't think I'm going out on a ledge here). Collins was a rookie... and despite the perception he struggled in the 2nd half, he had an .818 OPS. C-You have Contreras and Quero. So I'm just... desperately trying to figure out the logic that suggests we're going to be WORSE next year. How there is "no way" they come close to their 2025 production?

.... get a hobby dude.

AGAIN, when you wrote this; You really lacked any self awareness, didn't you? Why are you even tagging me on this? Have I EVER argued otherwise? I've said I don't think you can trust Mitchell. Sadly, he's got diabetes and that impacts his ability to recover from injuries. I just don't feel the need to force it into EVERY conversation or reply to EVERYONE who lists Mitchell among our OFers "Mitchell will be hurt by April."

Ok... well, I'M the one who made the argument that he threw in the 7th OR earlier. I'm obviously not going to limit that to the 6th or earlier, though he did have 11 appearances in the 6th inning... and given he filled in for Megill the last ~6 weeks of the season, I feel like 1/3rd of his innings in the 7th or earlier, 11 outings in the 6th or earlier makes my point. Either way, your OWN argument here is effectively the same as mine without using the term "piegon hole." He can come in and get out right handers in the 7th when there are good lefties due up in the 8th. GREAT! That's exactly my point. You can use him in the highest leverage spots rather than just point by numbers and making him your closer. No, my argument was that they SHOULDN'T and I didn't think they would trade Megill. Of course that argument now NOT having the ability to use Uribe when you need him earlier is part and parcel to my larger point, but no, my argument was... we shouldn't trade Megill to save salary. Because he's "in his 30s and 6'8," which seems very arbitrary or simply because you CAN replace him. Also, I didn't think this article was accurate and that I thought the entire logic was flawed. Trading cheap salaries now so you have the money to go out at the deadline and trade for players? The players you're trading away now are almost certainly going to be the positions you want depth at at the deadline. Just last year we traded FOR a closer and that was with a healthy Megill and Mears who had 2.84 ERA, 2.88 FIP at that time. So despite having Megill, Uribe, Ashby, Koenig and a VERY good reliever in Mears at the deadline, we STILL traded for Shelby Miller... who slotted in behind all of them and we took on Jordan Montgomery in order to add Miller. But of course trading your closer away and now... moving Uribe into the closers role(whatever phrase works) weakens your entire pen. Trading Megill and Mears for Yoho and Bukauskas... makes this team much worse and it saves you very little, even for a team like the Brewers. 2nd post- In response to the trading Mears "won't matter at all," and that we can just replace Megill with Uribe and Mears with Yoho or Bukauskas Which we can... and in doing so, make our ENTIRE Bullpen weaker. THIS is where you came into the conversation. Even in the post you're replying to, my argument is certainly not based on not wanting to pigeon hole Uribe into the closers role, but not wanting to lose Megill. So... the same argument I've been making the whole time, but the ENTIRE point of contention is how I articulated their use of Uribe and how I think that benefits the Brewers? Being able to use him in the highest leverage spots earlier in the game(for instance when the other team has their best RHed hitters coming up in the 7th)?

LOL... is this a serious question? Yeah, I don't see ANYONE saying we should keep Ortiz at SS and then move Collins to 2B. I don't... even know what we're talking about now. You wrote that without ANY sense of irony, didn't you?

You just said the "smart lineup" would be Turang at SS, Ortiz at 3B and Durbin at 2B. Someone says, "I hope Mitchell can contribute next year," and you post 39 times in succession that you're absolutely positive he won't, but here... you're just feeding off an idea you don't agree with? Sure.

1- 25 1/3 of his IP were in the 7th or earlier. So... I'd say quite a bit of his innings were used in the exact role I defined. We've had relievers of the year who weren't closers several times, so I'm not sure how this is disputable,. And 2- NO, my argument does NOT boil down to not wanting to pigeon hole a guy who was "already pigeon holed," which... by the way, you claimed that it was hard to see that as anything but negative, but moving on, my argument BEFORE we got into the semantics of what pigeon holed meant was that I DIDN'T THINK WE SHOULD TRADE A PITCHER LIKE MEGILL to save ~4M dollars. And that if the Brewers did that... with THAT being their motivation because they want to cut payroll now so they can add what will almost invariably be worse players at the deadline OR players who are as good, but will obviously than cost a LOT in prospect capital as... shockingly high leverage relievers are valuable at the deadline. The point was THEN made that Uribe was ready for the closers job... which I not once disagreed with, but you assumed I did and now we're in a circular and... kinda dead-end conversation here that's REALLY quite a ways off topic but now you're arguing THIS; isn't true...;and I'm just not sure what Brewers team you've been watching for the last 7 years. And I asked a REALY straightforward question that was at the heart of this entire thread... and you came back with several more questions for me. So... should they trade Megill to save 4.2M dollars? THAT could not have been a simpler question to answer.

He had a really low BABIP last year and his walks were cut in half(BB%). That seems like someone who is pressing and will figure it out. If he's the offensive player he was in '24, we're fine. Fans also forget they were pretty down on Turang at this time last year. Great glove... couldn't hit. And he hit pretty well this year... if you forget the last 4 games.

Good god dude, we get it... this is in about 89% of you posts... even when Mitchell hasn't been brought up. Collins came up as a SS/2B. He had very good scouting reports at 2B. The Brewers moved him because he was blocked at 2B. I'm not sure I understand the logic or how we get better when we just shuffle the IF around. Ortiz was an elite defender at SS. Why move him to 3B so you can move Turang, an elite defender at 2B, a Platinum Glove winner and then Caleb Durbin to 2B. That only seems to benefit Turang financially in the long-turn.

THIS; Is absolutely how they operate when they can. OBVIOUSLY when you have someone like Hader and he's losing money, you can't keep him in that role for years, but they did keep him in it until he went to arbitration and then they used the lack of saves. At that point, Devin Williams came in and HE was the closer. I don't get why we're still doing this though. You misunderstood what I said about pigeonholing him in as a closer, you took it as a negative... whatever, cleared that up and now what is the point? This is from a few days ago. It feels like we're getting pretty pedantic here. Do you think they should trade Megill so they can save 4.2M? That's where the discussion started and where it really should have ended.

I think it's a little bit of an assumption that it's a bubble at all. Spending may slow down, but... a lot of these articles are written by people who... have no real expertise whereas those that do have a different opinion. The big article from "Tom's Hardware" that spread... it was written by "12 industry insiders." That was picked up by Reuters and spread about how Google is now a major threat to NVDA with their TPUs. 6 of them had zero experiance working for... any of the big companies, certainly no experiance in FAANG, AI Engineers... basically a bunch of interns and some analysts. I realize EVERYTHING gets labeled as "manipulation," in the market when a stock doesn't go up, but this past week, since earnings really, there has been some concerted effort to drive down the stock price. I don't expect NVDA to keep growing at 62% YOY, but... it's very possible we get ONE more year of that and then just consistent growth. I think OpenAI and their ability to generate revenue is going to be a massive indicator, but NVDA just announced a plan to Partner with GOOGL to build a 500B Data Center in Taiwan to "help begin to build the infrastructure for the future of Cloud services in Asia." It'd be foolish to say there's no bubble... but I don't know that you can assume there IS a bubble. Are we REALLY so sure that the money being spent is more than what the intrinsic value of the massive Data Centers and Cloud Providers will be? If not... it's not a bubble. Are these companies really that overvalued? NVDA has a forward PE in the low 20s(depending on the projections). **And if NVDA gets export permits to sell the H200 to China... which seems pretty likely at this point, Again, not arguing it's NOT a bubble, just questioning the narrative that it's certainly a bubble and now just a massive economic shift that happens once every... ~100 years or so. If there's not a massive ROI on these startups that are borrowing billions of dollars, yeah, that's going to cause a massive collapse in the market. On the other hand... there are a lot of experts who believe the annual capex for "AI," which includes Cloud services... even though they're not the same, but setting that aside, the annual capex for GPUs, ASICs, TPUs will reach 1.3T per year by 2030(some more aggressive estimates). That's Morgan Stanley, UBS, CITI, JP Morgan... But, again, if OPenAI falls flat and doesn't start generating revenue by 2028 and has hundreds of billions it owes or these other large projects run out of money and can't generate revenue, it's going to hit the the largest companies and that's going to take out a LOT of 401Ks. There's also the power issues. The accounting seems to be pretty contrived by Burry though. In fact, in the last year, Amazon has lowered the depreciation cycle on their GPUs to 4 years. META and MSFT have raised it to 6 years. I believe GOOGL has kept it at 5 years. So they don't seem to know... so to ascribe some fraudulent behavior behind it is irresponsible IMO(that's not directed to you of course, but again, Burry).

They wouldn't have interest in Patrick and Yoho as the centerpiece. I don't think Yoho really has much value at all as a trade piece. Not in a CJ Abrams/Neto type package. Patrick has quite a it IMO, but... not as a centerpiece for a SS with back to back 5WAR seasons and 20+ HRs, good defense. I think Made, Pena or maybe Pratt. The Angels are pretty stubborn about their place though. They'll keep spending and losing and trying to win without a real rebuild. Where I kinda disagree, I'm not sure why you would make Ortiz your everyday 3B if you move Turang to SS. AT that point, Collins should play 2B, Durbin has earned another year at 3B.. that should be the starting lineup.