BrewerFan

LOL... you've invented this "original offer." What in fact WAS the was the "original offer" I made? I said we're DEFINITELY not signing "a player or two," like Hoskins or a Montas, players who made... on average of 17M a year when they were on the Brewers. THAT'S the only "bet" I'm making and I'm not going to entertain any more as I... don't think you believe what you're saying. I said we're DEFINITELY not signing "a player or two," like Hoskins or a Montas, players who made... on average of 17M a year when they were on the Brewers. You've made the spread Hoskins 2/34 to literally ANYONE. Eric Hasse comes back but doesn't make the team, well... we signed someone! You win! LOL... that's just ridiculous. You made the initial argument, you wanted to "bet." There could be a guy named Samchez out there, maybe we'll sign him... or some Jarvis(perhaps Paul Bettany is in need of employment, I don't know.... maybe we have some AI programs). Anyway, I'm not entertaining this. You set the bar at comically high as a minimum and now you're setting it as comically low as a minimum and trying to shift it as though I wanted to engage in some bet in the first place. I mean, if you really need opening day tickets that bad, we'll work something out!

No. We're ALMOST certain to sign a NRI or a Minor League FA... I WILL bet you we're not going to sign ANYONE in the Hoskins/Montas price ranges.

That wasn't really a "business analyst." Also, a "guy or two(Hoskins/Quintana)." That's... quite a chasm there. 2/34M we committed to Hoskins... and 1 year 2M and then 2M buyout. Not really similar at all. What's more, what "business analysis" do you think has been done here? It's usually not a good financial decision to borrow against the equity you've accrued in a business? That's just... well, it doesn't take an MBA. I don't really expect any FA signings, much less a Hoskins signing at this point.

It's just kinda sloppy football across the board. I thought it was just the Packers in a few games, but... it's everyone. There's not a great team in the league. The Rams are probably the best right now, the Eagles I still think will be end of the year, but I think Hurts is overrated. Their WRs are struggling to get open. The Pats are 10-2. I don't think they're that good. They're solid, not great... for example. Not trashing NE.

How did they recently stop it? I don't get how CPI would be cooked/manipulated. Jobs is often revised up or down... has been for a long time. But the CPI?

It's getting really hard to take Burry seriously. It's like he's chasing that 2008 feeling again. 2017-Called for a market crash and WWIII 2019-Said the ETF bubble would pop and the market would collapse. 2020-2021-Shorted TSLA a couple times... did poorly. 2023-Jan He told everyone "sell everything now." He was again... very wrong. Shorted NVDA in 2023, '24, '25. He's closed his latest short position. His entire thesis kinda falls apart when Ampere(not 5 years old) is still in service due to their software updates. He's saying that the actual lifecycle is more like 3-4 years. Ampere is going on 6 years old. Now, if he was citing private equity and how some of these companies are borrowing SO much money and still a ways away from being profitable, I'd see the logic there, but that's an awfully big claim. Amazon, MSFT, META, Alphabet, Oracle, they're all lying about the depreciation of their GPUs? Now the guy who he kinda retweets and is... associated with is suggesting NVDA is potentially committing fraud because going back 12 Quarters(which they were bringing in like ~4B in GC revenue) the average period from delivery to getting paid was 46 days. It's not 53 days. Really some big leaps. Just 6 months ago it was how this was so cyclical and 2026 would be a down year... and now you have 500B in commitments through 2026. NVDA has also gotten beaten down a bit despite just incredible earnings because of reports that Google is going to be selling their TPUs... which... is again, kinda silly... but this was from the co-designer of GOOGL's TPU Ironwood(since deleted) with regard to NVDA.

You use equity to borrow to grow your business... Real Estate is a fine example... and you could come up with other ways it would make sense, but this isn't one of them. The Brewers are already maxing out. Unless he's going to sell... how's he repaying the equity? I don't think they should or need or will just deal a guy like Megill to save 4.4M. I also don't want them to go out and sign Bichette and then in the future have to slash the payroll. They're doing fine. Bringing this team back with the young guys who should get better. Chourio is on the verge of breaking out, Garrett Mitchell... just because people mentioning him seems to elicit a lot of anger, I find it mildly amusing, Quero, Henderson... and several other prospects who may or may not contribute. Adams and Wilken could. Wichrowski... who knows. I feel like mentioning again though, even if Attanasio wanted to use the equity in the team... he owns less than 40% of the team. So that 1.7B, his share might be 600M. He also wants it to stay in his family. So he's going to be passing that down

It doesn't look good for them. They have a tough schedule left. 2X Jags, 49ers, Texans. Seattle. The Texans defense looks pretty good.

Yeah, that's what makes what they're doing a little scarier though. They finally have an offensive minded head coach and I don't think Williams has played great... by any means. Probably the #3 QB in that draft, but Goff isn't a world beat and Johnson had that offense among the best in the league. I do think they're pretty legit though.

We're not even talking about really stretching it. At most we're up ~10M from last year... and they made at least that with their playoff run. And of COURSE the Brewers "believe in windows." Saying they want "more bites at the apple," does not mean they don't recognize when they're competitive and have a chance to win now. They know they have a good team. That's why I don't believe they're going to be pinching pennies and trading these contracts that are extremely team friendly to cut payroll. I'm also confused why a potential lockout in '27 would in some way result in the Brewers saving money. If there's no season, there's no payroll, but there IS still TV money. That money(National deal at least) is Guaranteed. So that doesn't make sense. They're making money every year. They're not raking it in and making hundreds of millions, but they're not operating at a loss.

I don't see how; Closer= Simplistic group. 9th inning, no matter what, not always(in fact usually not) the most impactful innings by a reliever. Keep Megill and Uribe can throw in the 7th or 8th or whenever they need him as he did last year. The Brewers have done this for years. They've put as much value on the guy coming in and getting outs vs the middle of the order in the 8th or in a tough spot in the 7th as they have the closers role. That's not me inferring Uribe isn't good, it's... just the opposite. It's me wanting to see him used the same as he was this year.

Nobody said he wasn't. The 9th inning usually isnt' the toughest inning. Remember when we had Hader? He was quite clearly our best reliever. He was more valuable coming in, getting the heart of the order out in the 7th or with a one run lead and 2 men on. Nowhere in my post did I infer or dispute that he ready to be a closer. The payroll isn't that high. They have... arguably the best farm system and they just lost to the Dodgers in the NLCS. If they are cutting payroll... I'd be extremely disappointed. They're right about where they were last year despite the added income... and this article sounds like it was just 100% speculation. Attanasio gets a lot of #### for being cheap and it's been unjustified IMO, but... they start cutting away players like that, Ashby or Peralta... for any reason other than they get a deal they can't say no to, it'd be pretty disappointing.

Yeah... I caught that. Trout almost certainly would. We're not making the decisions here, this is just a place to BS about general ideas, right? I think the general idea there is good. It's not completely fleshed out. I'm sure the Angels would take on some money, I think the Phillies would be willing to pay more for Trout than some may expect. We're talking about trading for Jackson Merrill. I think your admittedly unlikely trade is... more feasible than that. Ask what would it take to get Jackson Chourio from the Brewers? If we're not giving up close to that for starters... it ain't happening. He may end up being a better hitter than Chourio, but you could play him at 3rd, SS, 2B...pretty much anywhere on the field but If we're seriously talking about him, I'd give up probably any two prospects, Henderson and Wilken for him.

Go to the original post so you don't need to ask me.

This is like one of those "7 ridiculous trades that we'd like to see," that... makes some sense for each side but won't happen. I think Trout waives that NTC in a heartbeat. I think the Phillies jump on the chance to bring the local kid Home. I don't see why the Angels do it. At the very least they have a HOFer who is a draw... on the rare occasions he's healthy. He could be healthier in Philly as a DH. I still feel like there's a late career run where he'll be productive for a few years. I just can't believe he'll keep being this unlucky. I like the trade... Well... the kid is 22/23 years old... and I think you're rolling the dice more on Henderson being more valuable than Lawler. I don't think you have to worry about that trade because I don't think there's any shot that the D-backs make it. They've been waiting to find a spot for him and he's been one of the best prospects for the last several years.

This is what I said after the Lions game. Do we root for the Bears or Eagles? I was half rooting for the Bears. We control our destiny and could end up with the #2 seed(maybe #1 seed) if we play just take care of business(the Broncos game will be a very tough game). MLF and Love seem like they've kinda turned a corner(for this year, over the course of his career, MLF has been great). Throwing to set up the run, Anthony Belton has been huge. Losing Wyatt was one of the worst players they could have lost, but they should have a full compliment of WRs and Wicks looks like he's turning it up at the right time. LVN need to get healthy, Brooks, Wooden. Brinson has been playing really well. He's not a pass rusher, but he's been standing in there and closing running lanes. 27-17 Packers Packers finish 4-1 to go 12-4-1, #2 seed in the NFC....

Ya don't say. How will we react if the Bears beat us 3 times in the next 6 games? Rather poorly I'd expect....

Mearns "didn't even make our NLCS roster." We faced a LHed heavy team and he did wear down. But he DID have an ERA under 3 most of the year and a WHIP under 1.00. But... fine. There's zero indication Yoho or Bukauskas are to be relied on, but SO easy to replace a guy who went through about 80% of the year with an ERA in the mid 2s and a Whip under 1. If you JUST want to go off of the end of the year, lets use Yoho's MLB performance... or again, Bukaskas's lack of one. Megill? How easy it is to replace him?

Ok. Well... you presented it as saving money and that's foolish IMO... and I can't imagine the Brewers doing that. Mears is NOT easily replaceable. You can just say he is, but... he's not. He was our #3 BP option and they used him A LOT. He wore down a little. But... I don't care. This was a discussion about the Brewers dumping payroll so they could add it and a convoluted approach at team building. Literally ANY pitcher is at risk for a flexor strain at any time. Megill was fine. We need him. This whole 'we'll just figure it out,' approach, we have MOST of the team coming back. We were in the NLCS. I'll take a 4M dollar risk that our closer will stay healthy so that we don't have to take Uribe and pigeon hole him in the 9th inning. Yoho was terrible and I honestly don't know what to say about talking about Megills injury but then looking to count on Bukauskas... who you said was pitching well as "leverage" reliever before he got hurt. That'll be 2 full years when next year opens up. He's more likely to be off the 40 man than to be on it, but we're going to trust him in the back of the pen!?!

Yeah, I'm giving the Brewers the benefit of the doubt here... They can trade Peralta(that's me giving permission🙃) and I'd be fine with it. IF the trade made sense and you just... have to make it. But I agree, I can't imagine they would be forced to do this. I'm just kinda stunned people are acting like some of these guys are so replaceable. They're pretty damn important arms. Like... keys to the Brewers success and we're going to trade them so we can upgrade probably the same position at the deadline? It makes no sense. I saw a trade proposal that just said 7 ridiculous trades we'd like to see and then they ask, "who'd say no," and... it's everyone, but personally... I'd be on board for this trade; Don't love adding Ortiz as I still think he's better than he was, but... Lowe, Diaz, you add to the offense and you get that pitching prospect who'll be there in a couple years as a potential ace. I liked Caminiti. Anyway, as a fan, show me a trade like this, the prized prospect(and I think highly of Caminiti). But I don't see how you sell just flat out dumping payroll and I don't think they will.

Losing BP depth definitely hurts and you're just... casually throwing our closer.. who threw pretty damn well in the playoffs and now has all off-season to recover and a very good SU man away for... minimal savings. You don't trade your closer on a whim because you have Uribe. Urbie is a SU man. ON top of that, you're just trading away the 7th inning reliever to save 1.5-1.6(his projected arbitration numbers by spotract and MLB.com). I think that will matter a lot. A reliever with a Whip under 1.00 is... pretty good. 7 1/3 IP 3H 1BB 12Ks in the playoffs, came back last year and was his usual self. We're going to trade away that 4.4M for what? I don't think Mears makes sense, but... fine. We're going to do this just in case? In case maybe he has elbow problems? They said it was a grade 1 strain. He came back. If the Brewers are dumping their closer because he MIGHT get hurt and they want to save 4.4M, that'd be ridiculous. They just had a playoff run that should result in them ADDING payroll, not trading their most important pitchers(or at least their Ace and their Closer). Bukauskas? The guy who pitched 6 innings for the Brewers... in LOW leverage situations for us in 2024 and then has missed most of the last two years? That's a guy we're seriously citing as we talk about BP depth and dumping Megill? Yoho was terrible. He should get better. I don't want him taking over for Megill. Just because the Brewers can find solid pitchers doesn't mean you just toss away a guy who throws 100 wtih a plus knuckle curve and can get the last 3 outs of the game. And who do you suppose we'll trade for at the deadline... and what would the propsect capital be... just to get right back to where we are right now? Megill-4.2M Elite closer Peralta-8M top 5 Cy Young Voting Mears-One of our highest leverage relievers last year(behind just Uribe and Megill)-1.5 I have 13.5M So a savings of ~11.2 so we can... come back at the deadline and add players and keep the payroll where it was last year. If we're trading these guys for money... then I'd have to change my opinion and say the Brewers really are not trying to win a WS. That would be the definition of just trying to hang around each year and be good enough to be in the mix, NOT good enough to win. The added revenue from the playoffs and we can't even maintain our payroll? And we add a Shelby Miller or a.. whoever, Mark Canha. But we mostly replace them with hope. Hope that we can find another couple pitchers who can produce like these guys. If something happens to one of our existing pitchers in the pen, we are REALLY in trouble. You're also kinda making the decision for the coaches that Ashby will not be a starter. There's really no way you could take another arm out of the pen. You need more than one dominant reliever. We rode our Pen too hard as it was last year. Mears was outstanding until you got late in the year and he wore down. But he was the guy coming in and putting out fires in the 5th, 6th...whenever needed. I thought we should be looking to ADD to the pen. Not subtract 2 of our top 3 HL relievers. This would be EXTREMELY disheartening. The layoff run should have added at LEAST 20M to the Brewers revenue(conservatively). If the argument is that we can get exactly who we want for Peralta, I could live with that, but this team doing this to dump salary would be a gut punch. And you really can't just replace pitchers like them with no drop off. WE're pretty good... I don't see who is going to step in with with respect to J.B. Bukauskas

Sure... I don't think he'll be traded to the Brewers either. I don't agree it'll be because the large market teams will beat us. We could get him if we wanted to. I just... don't think we'll do it. But we could!

Absolutely ALL speculation based. They may want to cut some payroll so they have room to add later... and the players they'll use to do so are POTENTIALLY Freddy Peralta and his 8M deal, Trevor Megill, our closers, part of the duo at the back of the pen that features two elite closers, and then Nick Mears... who is due to make 1.7M. Oh, and then the brilliant suggestion. The Brewers are concerned about their payroll. So what are they going to do? Well, since this is like the NFL and it always makes sense to just add years to a deal to lower this years salary, the Brewers are going to extend Woodruff to a longer team deal, but for less than 22.5M a year. So they'll make a LESS responsible decision(if they're worried about payroll) and go 3 years and 60M on Woodruff to save a couple million or they're trade Nick Mears and his 1.7M... Ya know, because the Brewers do this every year and in order to add, they'll have to subtract. The ACTUAL quote with regard to Woodruff was; So it really sounds like they're... just making things up because the Brewers had a player accept the QO. I honestly don't think they'd have any trouble at all trading Woodruff. Nathon Evoldi was the comp for his contract. I think he accepted because he wanted to be back in Milwaukee and the Brewers, namely owner Mark Attanasio wanted him back. ONE more comment regarding this... which... just drives me nuts in general, but Mark Attanasio owns about 34-39% of the Brewers. He's their principal owners, not the majority. But the 40%... that's... really "out of touch." Especially for fans who I think know better. That's a good talking point when you're trying to troll another team, but... it lacks ANY nuance that I would expect.

You trade 4.2M in Megill so you can... do what at the deadline? Try and add another high leverage reliever? I'm fine with Mears, even though I think it's a bad idea. The whole article sounds like just... complete speculation. It even suggests they sign Woodruff to an extension for a lower AAV so their payroll isn't as high It's... really annoying. They're still paying for the AZ facilities, the DR, they just bought a minor league affiliate, they have to pay the staff, everyone. If you're going to go by Forbes numbers, 2024- net revenue; LA Dodgers- 25M Milwaukee Brewers- 21M LA Dodgers- 353 Taxable Payroll-Brewers 114 That accounts for the 48% that teams take from their local revenue and pay in...except it's like the tax Code where it's pretty convoluted. The Dodgers for instance... they don't have to pay their full TV deal because of how it was structured and because if you own your TV rights, you're taking on extra risk and have an ownership stake apparently. I don't know, I don't fully understand the MLB CBA. BUT... I do know that framing it as though we're paying 40% of our revenue toward payroll is... pretty misleading. It suggests we're like the Hntington family and not trying to compete. PLUS, the Brewers had some pretty large capital expenditures in the past few years. 1-Dominican Republican Academy. State of the art facility in AZ and the Carolina Affiliate and their investment in their ~75M stadium. They had Rick Schlesinger on to talk about those investments and while they initially committed around 20M to the first round of the DR facility(when it had 22 Dorms) the 31 Acre facility now has 120-some dorms and the price ballooned both there as well as the AZ facility that was originally projected to cost 60M and due to Covid, supply shortages, it escalated to over 100M. ALSO during this time, the Low A Carolina Affiliate... which we don't know what they spent to buy the team (generally about 20M) or to invest in the Stadium(though estimated at 35M). That, as well as Miller Park investments is a WHOLE lot of money from ~2018 and they likely have pretty significant debt payments each year when added together. EITHER way... I expect to see the "the Brewers spend 40% of their revenue on their payroll," but a... very Twitter like post that leaves out all context or the fact the Brewers STILL end up with less net revenue than the Dodgers.

Yup... the same delusional ones who said they wouldn't miss Ben Johnson. I don't think the Bears are as good as their record this year, but Ben Johnson has to be the coach of the year. Now Detroit is on the outside looking in. "Michael" as he's known by Jerry... he should have never been on the market. Myles Garrett or Max Crosby, a team rebuilding with a superstar Edge who could get you a couple firsts, they made sense... and one of those two said the only other team that'd consider playing for was the Lions. I thought they'd end up being the ones who'd give up almost anything to get that player opposite Hutchinson. Instead dude just terrorized them. Even when he was lined up over Sewell, he made him look bad a couple times. The type of OT who only gives up 1-2 sacks a year and Parsons made him look... average. I also remember posting I don't remember a less enthusiastic feel to the Packers during camp and heading into the season... and then like 2 days later the Parsons trade happened. This was after the rumor they'd agreed to 45M a year, btu before anyone took it seriously. Or... at least I didn't. Who trades a 26 year old LT type player. Finally... I was frustrated that MLF was so conservative, but dude swung ALL the way in the other direction and did his best Dan Campbell impression.