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PeaveyFury

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Everything posted by PeaveyFury

  1. PeaveyFury
    And now they're following it with an equally bad start to the 2nd half. Not a well-played game by the Badgers at all.
  2. PeaveyFury
    Abreu had a better combined years OPS and had 50 more stolen bases in that time period plus he would probably cost a bit more but would not need a 3 year contract. Dunn on the other hand had 100 more points of combined OPS over those two years. But if people are concerned about the loss of defense from Cameron to Swisher, they should be really terrified about going from Cameron to Abreu, since he's absolutely horrific in RF defensively. That could easily happen to Swisher. Absolutely, but I don't think anyone has been saying that it's not a possibility.
  3. PeaveyFury
    The Badgers just played one of the worst halves I've seen them play in a long time (other than in games where they're completely over-matched, I suppose), and they finished on an 8-0 run to only be down 6 at the half.
  4. PeaveyFury
    Peavy it only favors the Brewers if Swisher rebounds. Swisher still put up a ~.750 OPS last year, which while not great, isn't a heck of a lot less than I think you could project Cameron for in 2009 due to natural decline as a 36 year old. Depending on how big an upgrade in pitching they get for the savings, the Brewers could well come out ahead as long as Swisher doesn't regress further. Also what about the $15 million in cost over 2010-2011. Doesn't any savings this season get negated by the costs that we have to take on in future years. That's the calculated risk the Brewers have to take into account. If he does rebound, which seems quite possible for a 28-year-old, he'd be worth every penny in 2010 and 2011. If not, he becomes Bill Hall 2.
  5. PeaveyFury
    Swisher's career UZR/150 in RF is 14.2. That's very good. He's -10.3 in CF though, so I'd definitely play Hart in CF over him, who actually has an above average UZR/150 during his short time in CF. Yeah, based on the sample we have, Hart in CF and Swisher in RF would be above average, but not as good as with Cameron in center. With the 5 million savings used for pitching, that probably tilts it towards the Brewers, especially if Swisher rebounds offensively, which would surely make him better offensively than Cameron.
  6. PeaveyFury
    Those guys all slumped in large part because the lineup was overloaded with righthanded hitters. The handed-ness of the lineup causes guys to slump? Considering that the only additional lefty that was in the lineup in 2007 that wasn't in 2008 was a mediocre-at-best Geoff Jenkins, I don't buy that at all.
  7. PeaveyFury
    On the other hand the Brewers could be taking the same strategy in order to get draft choices--short-sighted on their part. Isn't acquiring draft picks looking to the long term practically by definition? I don't see how that can possibly be viewed as short-sighted.
  8. PeaveyFury
    I'm torn on Swisher. It's impossible not to like his combination of power and patience, but as noted his defense stinks and I don't like how his BA is as low as it is. His 2008 BA brought down the rest of his numbers since he hit only .219. If he can get that back up into the .250s or .260s, he likely gets his OPS back into the .850 range again. Considering that he's 28, the odds are stronger that he'll rebound and that 08 was a fluke. If nothing else, he'd be a heck of a lot better as a return for Cameron than Cabrera, if we're seriously looking to move Cameron for salary relief for a starter.
  9. PeaveyFury
    I just hope it doesn't rule out Sheets. From the bottom of that same Tom H post: So, that shows you where I'm going with my lead item tomorrow. There's also a segment on Ben Sheets and the possibility of him eventually coming back to the Brewers.
  10. PeaveyFury
    It is starting to look as if that is not going to happen however. One day removed from their first major signing and you think they're done making moves?
  11. PeaveyFury
    well dropping from his career .406 SLG to a .398 SLG is hardly a trend, that is within expected values. His ISO is probably a better indicator for power since SLG includes singles, his career ISO is .162 and his 2008 ISO was .164 which again is right around career numbers albeit lower than in 2007. But that's the issue- his slugging numbers were increasing in increments as you'd expect for a developing player until last year. As I said, it could well be a fluke if he goes out and slugs .430, but if he posts another sub-.400 slugging percentage, that's a huge problem.
  12. PeaveyFury
    I don't think it's puzzling that Sheets is holding out for a 2+ year deal. He may still get it if he's patient He'll get a 1 year deal, either way* But the longer he waits, the lower the contract seems to get.
  13. PeaveyFury
    NL 2B put up a .338 OBP and .408 SLG last year. Weeks career line is now a .352 OBP and .406 SLG. The problem, though, is that Week's slugging dipped significantly last season, and is already much lower overall than expected from his minor league numbers. If that's a fluke, it's one thing. If it's the start of a trend, it's a serious problem.
  14. PeaveyFury
    but again, who is this pitcher? I mentioned Brandon Morrow in my previous post. Ervin Santana is another great example. Is it Doug Melvin, who has said it a couple of times this off-season? If it is, then Fielder is almost sure to be traded soon. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif If Prince was to be traded this offseason, I think it would have been done by now. Teams normally get the big trades done first and fill the gaps later. I was under the impression that it usually works the other way- trades don't happen until the free agents are taken care of and teams are sure of what they need.
  15. PeaveyFury
    I'm not sure I understand. If Dunn costs $10mil more than Fielder over the next 3 years...how do the Brewers use that money to pay a pitcher? The pitcher the Brewers acquire would almost certainly be a young-ish player that wouldn't be making much money. But that still leaves Abreu and Floyd. And the Nats want to dump Johnson. And then you have Nomar, Wigginton, and Durham. And Fielder is better than every single one of those players. So you can choose between signing inferior players or giving up something to get a good, young hitter. Not nearly as cut and dried as you seem to think it is. But is he that much better than Dunn + a starting pitcher? Exactly. Fielder may be a better hitter than Dunn, but Dunn seems pretty likely to be better defensively than Prince as it is, but Dunn and say Brandon Morrow are worth much more than just Fielder to the Brewers.
  16. PeaveyFury
    What puzzles me, is that I assume that both sides are looking at the same medical information. Agreed, FTJ. It's quite puzzling. So far, I think Sheets's agent has said that Sheets won't even consider a 1 year deal. Which is really quite odd, for most of the reason's you mentioned, Russ. Ending the season with an injury and no teams willing to lose a draft pick make a one-year deal quite logical for Sheets. Get a decent pay day for 2009, and delay the big payoff for a year while proving you're healthy enough to get a big multi-year deal (and be worth that draft pick). Unless, of course, Sheets' camp isn't confident that he can prove he's healthy enough, which is another story...
  17. PeaveyFury
    While the tryout is confirmed, I'm moving this to rumors until a signing takes place.
  18. PeaveyFury
    I think there was a prevailing assumption that Kapler would end up back in Boston, but now that they have Baldelli and Kotsay, that's probably not happening. logan is right, he probably hits from the wrong side of the plate at this point, so I think bringing him back is going to wait until the Brewers can see if they can get a lefty-hitting OF at some point first.
  19. PeaveyFury
    Assuming Sheets elbow looks okay While I agree with your thoughts and premise, this is clearly the multi-million dollar issue right now. His camp must not be concerned about it enough to have declined arbitration (or at least they weren't concerned back at that time), but there is clearly a reason why all you hear about any teams' pursuit of the 2nd-best free agent pitcher is crickets. Even if the team offers an incentive-laded deal as you suggest, they'd better be darn sure that they can at least tack a club option onto the contract so that they can get something out of the investment if he misses a chunk of 09.
  20. PeaveyFury
    and now the alternatives to Cameron are disappearing. But that only matters if you trade Cameron, which seems unlikely at this point.
  21. PeaveyFury
    Being discussed here: http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?t=16791
  22. PeaveyFury
    Per Tom H, Hoffman had what sounds to be a very similar offer from the Dodgers on the table, and Hoffman chose to come to Milwaukee instead of the Dodgers. The deciding factor seems to have been the rush the Brewers put on him. http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/37313449.html Definitely a moral victory to get a player to pick us over a market like LA.
  23. PeaveyFury
    Chipper's right. Smoltz only cost at the most, 10 million this year. I know they are trying to rebuild, but Atlanta should have ponyed up the dough. Shouldn't Padres' fans be saying the same thing, though, about Hoffman?
  24. PeaveyFury
    Melvin certainly made it sound like if we got a closer we would not go after a starter (and vice versa if we had gotten a starter) because he feels McClung can handle the load on the other end. This was from his 1250 WSSP Interview with Sparky a couple days back. Melvin is also very misleading through the media. We had no interest in bringing in Trevor Hoffman 2 weeks or so ago.
  25. PeaveyFury
    From Tom's latest blog on the incentives: Hoffman will reach all of the incentives if he finishes 52 games this season. The incentives start kicking in at 35 games finished. http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/37275114.html
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