adambr2
-
Posts
39,258 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
106
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Blogs
Events
Milwaukee Brewers News, Rumors & Analysis
2026 Milwaukee Brewers Top Prospect Rankings
Milwaukee Brewers Videos
2022 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
Milwaukee Brewers Trade & Free Agent Rumors
Milwaukee Brewers Fan Guides & Resources
2023 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
2024 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
The Milwaukee Brewers Players Project
2025 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
2026 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
Store
Downloads
Gallery
Everything posted by adambr2
-
Mets Agree To Terms With Anthony Swarzak - 2-years/$14M
adambr2 replied to MadThinker88's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Seems Stearns did ok on assembling the pen and not dropping big money on relievers like everyone else. -
Not tonight. I'm guessing Knebel gets activated and Franklin DFA due to the short start. Orf will need to hold off until the bullpen gets rested. Can you DFA an injured player?
-
This, this, this. Having a Franklin/Sogard type on the roster is no big deal. Having that player start for a week is bad, especially when there are better options available. Villar just is a better option, especially as a bottom of the order hitter with an OBP around .330. To me it is a big deal. We have a 2B tearing up AAA. I’m not saying he would be better but he should at least have gotten a shot to find out. Nick Franklin is a known quantity, and not a good one. When we discussed depth this last off-season we kept saying “at least we don’t have to carry a Nick Franklin anymore.” Hilariously, now we are. Just a baffling move. I didn’t think a Sogard promotion could disappoint me but they pulled it off.
-
Thanks Dan Jennings, you managed to take a photo of Knebel returning and make it utterly disappointing.
-
I would guess if the Brewers were going to make a move they would have made it yesterday on the day off. The fact that none was made would indicate that none is forthcoming to me, unfortunately.
-
Based on what? He's at +6 DRS (3rd in MLB) already, +4 Rtz and a 17.7 UZR/150 (4th in MLB). He's been outstanding defensively. Don’t think he’s arguing that he hasn’t been outstanding defensively, he’s arguing that you still need to offer something with the bat to be starter worthy. He doesn’t need to be an offensive stud, but he does need to not be a black hole.
-
I don’t agree, and I don’t see the comparable that you’re basing this on. There’s evidence just from last year that rentals get discounted significantly. I do think a Machado rental is worth more than a Martinez or Darvish rental, how much more I really don’t know. I could see having to center something around a Burnes type based on the competition and bidding for him. Still, this isn’t 10 years ago when you could at least still get comped for a rental that you acquired. GMs are smarter and none are going to gut their farm just to rent one player for 2 to 3 months. The Orioles also don’t have a ton of leverage without establishing a bidding war as their options are to either take the best offer at the deadline or lose him for a comp pick in a year that they’re going nowhere which would be a very dumb thing to do.
-
The thing about Machado is that I know it’s hard for us to look at this as a real option— but it absolutely can be. IF the Brewers want Manny Machado, they can go get him. The Orioles are going nowhere and need to retool and won’t risk losing him for just a comp pick. The Brewers have the need, money, and prospects. Here’s the big caveat — it will be a rental. Barring some totally unforeseen circumstances, Machado would be ours for a few months and one pennant race and then gone with no compensation. So this is a move you make only if you’re near 1st in July, still have a disaster at SS, and really believe this can bring a World Series to Milwaukee. Even then, that’s obviously not a sure thing and you need to weigh the risk/reward. The positive is you’d still have Arcia who would likely return to AAA for the remainder of the season before returning to Milwaukee in 2019. The other good thing is, he’ll certainly be discounted as a rental and even more so the more time passes. I think now that Arcia/Burnes would be an overpay. I don’t like to use the middling return JD Martinez brought to the Tigers last year, because Manny is better and plays a premium position. I think, with the price of starting pitching at the deadline, the Darvish trade is a better comp. He cost the Dodgers Calhoun (a low top 100) and the 17th and 27th prospects in a good system. So looking at ours, a comparable send might be Woodruff, Troy Stokes and Trey Supak. That’s a tough ask, but it isn’t going to kill us. So, can you stomach giving that up for half a season of Machado?
-
Yeah, players like Machado don’t take deals like 4/130. That puts all the risk on him. They take longer term deals with multiple opt outs which puts all the risk on the team and still gives him the chance to enter free agency again at 29 or whenever. Sucks, but that’s how it goes.
-
Couple things on JV vs Arcia: - Calling Villar “phenomenal” in 2016 is a bit of an overstatement. He was a very nice player, but it’s possible it was an aberration. - Arcia was a top 10 prospect and is 23. Villar is 27. Not very comparable as far as age and upside. - That said, I do believe both should be starting middle infielders for what we have right now and not constantly jerked around for guys like Sogard.
-
Yes we do. Hiura is definitely a worthy trade centerpiece, as is Burnes. Freddy Peralta has worked his way into that discussion. Medeiros is on his way back up as is Ortiz. Either of Woodruff or Phillips probably carry low top 100 value. Someone like Supak or Ponce would be a very nice secondary piece for a team. Ray and Erceg run hot and cold but are both holding their own in AA. These guys have good value in a deal. As do many others I haven’t listed. It’s not a top heavy system but it’s a very deep one. It would probably be more quantity than quality oriented unless Hiura was included but they absolutely have the trade chips to make a major deadline deal if they want to. I’m not specifically advocating doing that but they definitely can.
-
Villar should not be an everyday player and should be no where near the top of the lineup. To put in perspective how terrible his start to the season has been, he has been incredibly lucky, .397 BABIP with a groundball rate of 69.5%, yet his OPS is .654. 30.7% K rate, he doesn't walk anymore. I would play Sogard every day (who has been more unlucky than bad) before I would give Villar another start. 2016 Johnathon Villar is long gone and never coming back. No, Sogard has been very bad. You keep saying this and while there's some truth (although his last 'hit') came on a popup 'double' that was misplayed, average luck doesn't bring Sogard's numbers up to respectability. You can be both bad and unlucky, it doesn't have to be one or the other. Sogard is a barely replacement level player for his career who has somehow gotten 1700 PAs, is 32, and why he would be the one of the bunch you want to see in there everyday is a mystery to me. I agree Villar hasn't been good but he's been far better than Sogard, is 6 years younger and at his best has been far better than Sogard's best year. Also, you keep citing BABIP like it's completely dependent on luck when it's not. Other factors help determine BABIP and Villar will always carry a higher BABIP than Sogard. The fact that Villar's career BABIP is about 75 points higher than Sogard is not some lucky coincidence. I think your use of BABIP lacks context. No one is expecting 2016 JV to return, at least I don't believe so but if you're cutting ties with one now Sogard is the easy choice and it's not really close.
-
You wonder why they even take so long to make a move that they know perfectly well IS going to happen eventually which would let them start getting a look at the next guy, in this case Orf. We all knew Oliver Drake would be DFA eventually. We all know Eric Sogard and Jett Bandy will be DFA, eventually. It's not a matter of if but when.
-
Would love to have him, but would it justify the cost? Also, starting pitching hasn't been the problem. Yeah same. I love Fulmer and would love to see him in a Brewer uniform but there isn't a pitcher out there besides Ohtani that is going to help solve the real problem on this team.
-
The nice thing about having so many prospects starting the season so well is that it's going to make it easier to deal some of them to eventually fill these holes. Right now, this team could use an upgrade at catcher, 2B and, frankly, RF, as crazy as that sounds. Santana has really been coming around, OBP already up around. 350, and quite honestly, hasn't been all that bad in the field. Power will come around, I can't imagine he just went from a big power bat to a slap hitter overnight at age 25. Still K's too much but other than that I really do think he'll be okay.
-
Just one bad outing, picked the right time to have it, but overall numbers are still decent. There are some concerning signs with Barnes, particularly a very high WHIP and walk numbers that are up from even last year. He doesn't seem as suited for high leverage situations as I'd hoped. He still struggles with command more than you'd like to see. That said, at this time last year we'd be asking if he should be the closer. Considering he's behind at least Knebel, Hader, Jeffress, and Albers in the pecking order, you could do a whole lot worse for the 5th or 6th guy in your pen.
-
Yes, he'll make June. Sogard will be off this team long before Villar. You keep citing "contact ABs for Sogard but he's striking out in 25% of his PAs and his glove is nothing special. I'm not a huge Villar guy but the fact that he didn't start for 3 days does not necessarily mean CC doesn't believe in him. He's demonstrated at times in the past that he definitely does. Our 2B situation isn't good, but throwing away your best existing option isn't the way to start fixing it. Villar could lose reps internally to Dubon or Orf, or a 2B acquired in trade, but he'll stick til the end of the season and then probably be non-tendered if he doesn't turn it around. Sogard is in extreme immediate danger of losing his roster spot, much moreso than Villar.
-
This team has been shut out more than any team in baseball. I haven't looked that up, I'm just assuming it has to be the case.
-
Dodged a bullet? (Lynn, Archer, Cobb all struggling)
adambr2 replied to TURBO's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
The way this last offseason went, particularly for 2B, you don't think that Dozier would take a 1-year, $17M QO deal in a heartbeat? If he has a season close to his career norms? No. Not a chance. I think you are severely undervaluing Dozier. He is an elite level 2B and not comparable to Neil Walker. http://m.startribune.com/is-brian-dozier-going-to-get-paid-in-free-agency-and-will-it-be-by-the-twins/479986993/ "I don’t want to touch too much on this, it’s the thing that gets asked all the time, but at the same time, I will be a free agent this fall,” Dozier told Souhan. “That’s the bottom line. You can only say you want to be here so much, and nothing gets done. That’s just the way it is. I understand everything. At the same time, you’re six months away from free agency. That’s intriguing.” This doesn't sound like a guy to me who is going to give any thought to a QO. Also want to point out that ESPN projected him for 5/77, which is almost exactly in line with the Lorenzo Cain type deal I was and am predicting he'll get. -
I honestly still have no idea what to expect from this team, but I could definitely understand if we aren't really respected or taken seriously on a national level right now. Our performance against any team that doesn't resemble a complete bottom feeder has ranged from anywhere between uninspiring to putrid.
-
Barnes going for a big ERA buster inning.
-
I understand that, I never said otherwise. I was just pointing out that it is better for it to happen in a game we weren't going to win anyway.
-
Well, at least Barnes picked a night to suck when it won't matter.
-
It's got to be disheartening for guys like Shaw and Santana knowing that even if they get on with the guys that follow them being on base means nothing. At least Arcia hit it hard. To Sogard's credit if this is his last chance as some have theorized he is making the decision easy.
-
I cannot imagine that there is a worse bottom half of a lineup in baseball today than Sogard/Arcia/Bandy/Chase. That's just brutal.