If you were an NFL GM, you would rather have one (late) 3rd round pick in the current year than a 5th in the current year and a guaranteed 1st round pick of unknown position next year? Really? Unless I'm reading that wrong and you mean we should have gotten a 1st next year + a 3rd this year, in which case I would disagree. Saints already gave up way too much. 12picks this year. 1 was top 15. The move down to 27 for a 1st rd next year, as stated will likely be after 15. As well as ours outside top 15. Now they moved back up and got (supposedly) the player they were going to draft at 14. But this move on its own, I dont like parting away from a top 15 to pick 25+ and a ? For 1st next season. Big gamble. Prior to trading back up, youre talking (hypothetically) a chance for a 90+ grade player. Impact. For 1 80s grade player and most likely 80s grade next season. Meanwhile with 12picks now 45 and beyond youre talking below 80grade filling out your team. Gotta wait 1year for this return value on 1st rd. And the 5th rd guy like an upper 60s grade player. So yes, I believe they should have gotten a 3rd vs the 5th. Offer a contingent on next season giving up a 3rd or 5th depending on top 14 or below 14th. IMO you're discounting the value of next year's 1st wayyy too much. Going strictly by the draft value chart, which isn't gospel but is a pretty good guide, the drop from 14th to 27th is a drop of about 420 points, or roughly the value of a mid 2nd round pick. The Saints could win the Super Bowl next year and we still come out far ahead in value. Yes, it sucks for us to have to wait a year, but we'll be thrilled about it this time next year. Unless you're going from a very deep draft to a very shallow draft, 1st round value is still 1st round value regardless of the year. You're also making a big assumption that the Saints will pick in the 20s. Yes they were solid in 2017 but they finished 7-9 every year in the 3 years before that. They play in a very tough division and could easily wind up 3rd in the division and miss the playoffs depending on the bounces they get in 2018. They'd also be a Drew Brees injury away from a top 10 pick.