It's not the stolen base that's pooh-poohed by sabermetrics. Getting caught stealing is pooh-poohed. I believe the break even point is around 78%. If you are successful in 78 steals out of 100 in a season, you theoretically didn't contribute to the offense. If you did better than that, then it is a good thing to steal. If you do less than that (which involves most base stealers) its is a bad thing. If you pitch from the windup everyone would have close to 100% success. If your batter is good enough to always hit a ground ball at a middle infielder, than you should hit and run every time with him. It's a risk play that forces your batter to make a strike no matter where it's pitched. And if he misses, then it falls into the above situation. That is why it is rarely a good idea.