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owbc

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Everything posted by owbc

  1. owbc
    The Mariners will probably tell Topa to throw his slider harder and not worry about break. The Brewers will go to work converting Hernandez to a reliever and addressing whatever they decided was fixable. I like that we've become frequent trading partners with Seattle. They are generally a smart organization and love making trades, sometimes quicker than they should. Meanwhile, we should be quicker to make more trades and trade more frequently.
  2. owbc
    Great article. Personally I like having the extra arm around, I think there's a high likelihood that either one or both of Lauer and Houser will struggle in 2023 and we don't have Brent Suter around anymore to eat up innings in the pen. I would also be open to trading Lauer but not for Santander. I know he hit a bunch of HR in 2022 but he's not that good defensively and we can always put up with Winker's defense if we need to. I would rather just get a better prospect haul from Baltimore or another suitor, but it might be worth starting the season with the arm surplus and seeing how things sort themselves out. The trade deadline would be the best time to move Burnes but I doubt it happens unless we're out of contention. The Luis Castillo trade is a good benchmark for what we could expect to get for Burnes -- three of the top 5 prospects in a strong farm system. That would be fantastic.
  3. owbc
    Down 1% is impressive for 2022! That was a tough year. I'm still deciding what to do in 2023. In 2022 I had some losses on S&P 500 index funds that I cashed out in the fall (partially for tax reasons plus a lack of confidence that stocks are going to go up in 2023). I also bought my full allotment of I-Bonds when the rate was 9%. And finally I bought some of my company's stock at a 5% discount which has stayed flat in the past 6 months. Currently my extra cash is sitting in a Fidelity account earning 4%. The other uncertainty that sits over my head is the possibility that student loan payments will resume...and whether there will be any forgiveness or not (and whether I will be eligible for it)...and if payments do resume should I refinance or pay it off with our lower interest HELOC as my financial advisor has suggested. I've also thought about getting a vacation/rental property but everything still seems way overpriced and my partner would prefer to upgrade our house, which doesn't make sense right now because we're locked into a low interest rate and the housing market needs to cool off more. So I'm pretty happy getting the 4% for now...it seems like they will do anything to get inflation down so the I-Bonds don't appeal to me in 2023...I guess old school stuff like CDs and savings accounts might be the safest investment these days...
  4. owbc
    To me that just shows the value of rotation depth, which has not been addressed this offseason. So if there is another injury or a regression we'll be back to the middle of the pack again. Plus we already know from 2021 that an elite TOR is far from a guarantee of playoff success.
  5. owbc
    In 2022 our rotation was league average. In 2021 we got out-pitched by the Braves in the postseason -- largely because the Braves struck gold on a handful of unremarkable deadline acquisitions that happened to get hot at the right time. I think it's a tremendous shame that they missed the postseason in 2022 but it's not like they "wasted" anything that wasn't unique to any other year that they missed the playoffs. Any contract where you are front ending WAR and back ending salary puts you at a disadvantage down the road. Supposedly our competitive advantage is our analytics department, right? In addition to player development? If that's the case, then the Hader trade should be the standard for what we are trying to do. Then we need to do more trading and keep restocking. Don't sign any extensions.
  6. owbc
    I agree, some of that was driven by the Ukraine situation but the Russian oil is managing to make it to market. Here in the Seattle area it’s fallen below $4 in the cheaper spots. I was out of the city near the refineries last weekend and I saw $2.75 so I topped off my tank for $14. What a deal!
  7. owbc
    The NHL season as been pretty interesting so far but over the last few weeks it seems like the preseason favorites are starting to rise to the top. Buffalo is back in last place. Some of the other surprised like New Jersey, Seattle, and Detroit have struggled in December. My BIL is a huge Caps fan, he said their entire offensive strategy is designed around trying feed Ovechkin the puck to get him that goals record (as opposed to trying to win as many games as possible). But given how much he's been scoring lately, they are actually winning games.
  8. owbc
    The decision to draw down the SPR is looking brilliant assuming they can start refilling in early 2023 at a 20-30% discount vs. what they were selling it for in 2022.
  9. owbc
    Precisely, it's easy to see why this trade happened given Contreras' defense may be a real liability if teams go back to a past era of stealing 4 or 5 bases per game. But that's all speculation right now, we don't really know how many stolen bases are going to happen and we don't know if the Brewers can coach Contreras to be better at throwing runners out. The A's don't really have a choice, when you have no money you need to think out of the box to try and find value. And if Contreras didn't have a few flaws, the Braves would never have wanted to trade him in the first place.
  10. owbc
    The miles driven in my household plunged during the pandemic and never went back to the previous normal, so now I'm sitting on a second car that is 12 years old with roughly 75,000 miles. I came fairly close to going down to a 1 car household when used car prices were high, but it's nice to have it around for the 3 or 4 times per month that it gets used. If it was the 'before times' I would have wanted to replace it but instead we splurged on an expensive primary car and I'll keep the backup car as long as possible.
  11. owbc
    Is it bad that I completely forgot Hiura is still on the roster?
  12. owbc
    Who cares how hard you hit the ball when you have a .447 OBP and steal 85 bases? With the limited pickoff moves starting this year in MLB, Ruiz is going to be able to steal a ton of bases. I'm obviously a huge fan of the trade like everyone else, but Ruiz is going to be fun to watch at the MLB level. It's pretty clear what the A's were looking for. One question though -- how did this dude get hit by a pitch 27 times in one season? He must have been leaning into everything inside. He's clearly about as close to an OBP specialist as you can get.
  13. owbc
    Exactly. The A's are cheap. They are trying to have the lowest possible payroll while stockpiling prospects for the impending move to Vegas.
  14. owbc
    We've been waiting for them to do something to get better in 2023. Worth the wait I would say. Maybe Ruiz eventually pans out but Contreras is worth several wins for us right away, which is exactly what we needed.
  15. owbc
    Great analysis. The stats certainly back up what I saw from Winker last year. Tons of softly hit balls to the pull side which were gobbled up by the shift. Those will still get gobbled up by shifts in 2023. The annoying thing about the shift was when hard hit balls were turned into outs which is what this rule change should help with since you can't play the 2B on the grass anymore. I'm sure the 2B will still be sitting there in the hole waiting for the slowly-hit rollers. Toro will benefit as well since he is better from the left side and is unlikely to get many ABs against lefties. The Brewers definitely took the shift into account when acquiring Toro as the extra piece in the Wong trade. Some of the cascading changes are going to be fun and will take a few years to work out. LOOGYs were basically killed by the combination of shifting and the 3-batter rule but I doubt we'll see anyone copying the Astros' strategy of not having a lefty in the pen anymore.
  16. owbc
    That's why I said if he puts up another 125 OPS+ year similar to 2022. Haniger has missed a ton of time due to injury and was not a difference maker when he returned from injury last year.
  17. owbc
    Renfroe is obviously going to go to free agency after what we are witnessing this offseason. Along with every other MLB player that is within a year or two of free agency. Nimmo has a career 130 OPS+. If Renfroe puts up another 125 OPS+ season he's looking at a $100 million+ contract.
  18. owbc
    I think it was mostly frustration from the injuries combined with lack of production. At the mid-season mark Winker was on good terms with everyone, especially after his role in that brawl with the Angels. He certainly stood up for his teammates in that situation. Winker is not going to take the extra base or lay out to make a diving catch. He looks lazy when he's playing baseball and he doesn't care that he plays the game that way. That's the "character" concern that we're talking about. There are no shortage of baseball players that are hitting specialists, so as long as he hits, it will probably be fine. He looks like he cares when he draws 10 pitch walks. Just keep him in the DH spot and things will be fine.
  19. owbc
    The M's fanbase is kind of weird right now, all they really care about is how their moves compare to whatever the Astros are doing and they have been triggered by some recent comments from Dipoto that they not planning to make any big FA signings this offseason. Winker had a frustrating year. He was playing through injuries in a pitching-friendly ballpark. He didn't mesh with the M's clubhouse for whatever reason. He's a prime candidate for a bounce back year. I think the Brewers could have easily traded Wong for Winker straight up but getting Toro as well adds another potential piece of upside with a few years of control. There's no downside to seeing if Toro can find his footing at the MLB level. That's a pretty nice return for a guy who we had no plans to keep.
  20. owbc
    As a Brewers/Mariners fan, here's my take (some of this was in the rumors thread as well): Winker -- a complete disaster in 2022 other than his high OBP. One of the worst defensive outfielders and baserunners that I have ever seen at the MLB level. Played himself out of the lineup and was left off the playoff roster. Received criticism for his lack of work ethic. I'm sure the Brewers will give him an occasional start in the OF but he's better off as a DH. I suspect the change of scenery will be a good thing and he will benefit from the shift ban and the shorter right-center field wall at AmFam. Toro -- this is a smart pickup by the Brewers. He's been behind Dylan Moore in Seattle but was solid at both 3B and 2B. Has some pop in his bat especially from the left side. Statistically he has been quite unlucky and the pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park didn't help either. I think his xBA was quite a bit higher than his average. Honestly this is a pretty good return for the Brewers -- both of these guys have a ton of upside and could make meaningful contributions in 2022. We needed some depth at the MLB level and we got it.
  21. owbc
    Gallardo was basically a light version of Felix Hernandez. They were born two months apart in 1986. Both of them threw a ton of innings in their early 20s and both blew their arms out by age 30. At least Gallardo got to pitch in the postseason a few times. He was huge for us in the NLDS in 2011. My last memory of Yo was watching him pitch for the Mariners in 2017. He was a shell of his former self by then and it was hard to watch. He had some rough, rough outings that year.
  22. owbc
    It was interesting to hear that Michael Lewis has been shadowing SBF for the past 6 months. That's going to be a fun book/movie...
  23. owbc
    The turning point might have been the blown game on his bobblehead night against the Mets, 5/13/2006. https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIL/MIL200605130.shtml A rare sellout in those days and the Brewers smacked back-to-back bombs in the bottom 8th to overcome an 8-4 deficit and tie the game. I was with my dad and brother in the field bleachers for that game and the crowd was going absolutely nuts. Turnbow comes in for the top 9th and IMMEDIATELY gives up a solo bomb. As the stadium went silent, we notice something small and round fly over our heads from the loge bleachers and come to rest in right field next to Geoff Jenkins. It's Derrick Turnbow's head with the wavy hair, ripped from his bobble body and fired onto the field in disgust by a disappointed fan. I'm not necessarily a believer in voodoo, but Turnbow was never really the same after that moment... After all of that drama Corey Koskie came about two inches from tying the game in the bottom 9th...and Bill Hall hit his famous pink bat HR the next day. So the game was largely forgotten, except in my family, where it remains one of the most legendary Brewers moments of all time.
  24. owbc
    The turning point might have been the blown game on his bobblehead night against the Mets, 5/13/2006. https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIL/MIL200605130.shtml A rare sellout in those days and the Brewers smacked back-to-back bombs in the bottom 8th to overcome an 8-4 deficit and tie the game. I was with my dad and brother in the field bleachers for that game and the crowd was going absolutely nuts. Turnbow comes in for the top 9th and IMMEDIATELY gives up a solo bomb. As the stadium went silent, we notice something small and round fly over our heads from the loge bleachers and come to rest in right field next to Geoff Jenkins. It's Derrick Turnbow's head with the wavy hair, ripped from his bobble body and fired onto the field in disgust by a disappointed fan. I'm not necessarily a believer in voodoo, but Turnbow was never really the same after that moment... After all of that drama Corey Koskie came about two inches from tying the game in the bottom 9th...and Bill Hall hit his famous pink bat HR the next day. So the game was largely forgotten, except in my family, where it remains one of the most legendary Brewers moments of all time.
  25. owbc
    In my 25+ years of being a Brewers fan, we had two teams that were capable of winning the pennant: 2018 and 2019. Someday there might be another one, but for now Stearns is the only Brewers GM in 40 years who has given us a real shot at reaching the promised land. You could maybe make an argument for the ‘08 or ‘11 teams if they had gotten luckier or avoided injuries, but I put them on a lower tier below the Stearns teams.
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