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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    No profesional athletes leave tens of millions on the table because it's not realistic to expect anyone to. So, criticize capticalism or the human race, not the athletes.
  2. rluzinski
    I don't remember an off season that there wasn't a vocal minority complaining about the direction of the club.
  3. rluzinski
    There is a significant portion of the Milwaukee fanbase that believe Sheets is not a "winner", get's hurt because he's lazy and increases the downtime of his injuries because he's not manly enough. By changing teams, he get's to shed all that nonsense and start fresh. Yes, if he gets chronically hurt with his new team and/or grets poor run support, the same criitcisms will be levied. He won't have the impossible task of trying to change the minds of bitter fans who don't want to change their minds, however. If he goes to the Yankees for $15 mil and logs a 3.8 ERA in 180 IP, Yankee fans be fine with him.
  4. rluzinski
    Where did that Brewer projection come from? It sounds a little low, even with a Galardo/Parra/Bush/Suppan/McClung rotation.
  5. rluzinski
    None of this makes any sense to me at all and I really wish someone would give a logical explanation as to what is going on with this team. It's pretty simple, IMO. Melvin has maybe $10 mil to spend in free agency as the roster currently stands. If he dumps Cameron's salary, he has $20 mil. Keep those two numbers in mind and I think everything will become crystal clear.
  6. rluzinski
    You know, I'm noticing that some of the same names that are already giving up on the 2009 season also gave up on the 2008 season at one point. Naaa, must be my imagination. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif If the season starts and the team looks exactly as it does now, I'll be the first to say that the Brewers have no real shot at the playoffs. But it's December right now, so the idea that it's already too late to improve this club for 2009 seems pretty silly to.
  7. rluzinski
    3.6 ERA + 160 IP = $15 mil/year If he wants to be paid like a guy who can be expected to pitch 210 innings, He's not going to find any takers. But if a guy of his talent might only get a 2/$30 deal, it's obvious that his injury history is being considered. All that other stuff about "when we needed him most" just doesn't mean anything to me. But I guess I don't take it personally when an athlete gets injured.
  8. rluzinski
    The ownership group (of which Mark A. is just one of many) may be tempted to try and squeeze more profit out of the Brewers if their personal financial situation has recently worsened. I think that's a fair observation. That doesn't automatically mean that they'll try to get the team payroll as low as possible though. If they don't feel like they are likely going to compete for the playoffs, winning 81 or 85 games probably won't make much of a difference to the bottom line. They aren't just going to gut the team, though. Of course, this is DECEMBER, so it's very difficult to gauge the intentions of the ownership group has for 2009. They are probably making the right choice in being patient this off season. They could signa good starter and closer to one year deals in late January and still be positioned pretty well for the upcoming season. Maybe we could just wait to see what happens? Pretty please?
  9. rluzinski
    Swapping Cameron for Cabrera might result in more runs scored for the Brewers next year? It frustrates me that life long baseball fans can still not not have a clear picture of how runs are scored in this game. Get on base and hit for power. That's 98% of the equation. Cabrera shouldn't be expected to do either better than Cameron next year, so his inclusion in the Brewers' lineup likely will result in less runs scored. It's not even very close. I don't hate this deal long term but can't we at least agree on the obvious? In 2009, Melky represents a downgrade offensively and defensively from Cameron.
  10. rluzinski
    UZR/150 games for Cabrera last year was exactly 0. A perfectly mediocre defensive CFer. Cameron was 13.3 runs above average (or about 1'3 wins). Of course, Cabrera is 24 and Cameron is 36, so for next year, I'd be tempted to call Cameron a win better than Melky at most, defensively. That's still a potentially large difference, of course. 2009 Marcel Projections: Cabrera: .271/.333/.383/.716 Cameron: .243/.328/.436/.765 Now Cameron projects to be about a league average CFer for next year, which costs pretty close to $10 mil these days. So in that sense, he's not really worth anything in a trade. Of course, specific needs by a franchise and varying financial resources from team to team needs to be considered as well. Cabrera projects to be a decidedly below average CFer for 2009, so Melvin would have to buy talent elsewhere to have any hope of making this trade result in a net gain for the Brewers in 2009. Is Cabrera arbitration elibible for the 2009 season?
  11. rluzinski
    How can anyone criticize Melvin's inaction in the free agency market when they don't even know what his budget is? What is our best guess? He has about $10 mil more to work with. So, he can ONE slightly above average player. We are supposed to be surprised that he's not persuing ever big name free agent? Completely irrational.
  12. rluzinski
    The other revealing part of the interview was that Melvin had no answer to who would bat 2nd. Homer commented that he thought it would be whoever they got back either in a deal for Cameron, or signed to replace Cameron. What is the theory that keep prompting people to talk about getting rid of cameron: 1. Cameron is a good player and worth more than his $10 mil contract but he's not a good fit for the Brewers, who need a lefty contact hitter. 2. Cameron is obviously not worth $10 mil, another team is not only going to trade for him and his bloated contract but also give up talent in return?
  13. rluzinski
    Signing Abreu and moving Hart to CF would make our overall defense in the outfield just terrible. I don't think the 40 point OBP upgrade of Abreu over Cameron would make that move worth it (they project to have about the same SLG), even if Abreu signed a smaller contract like that. Is there anywhere that lists the percentage of RH starting pitchers each team had to face last year? Baseball Reference? I know pwople want to add a LH bat but I wonder how much balancing the lineup is really worth.
  14. rluzinski
    Melvin has already stated that not signing didn't mean that $20 mil was available to sign other players.
  15. rluzinski
    I don't think the Brewers would have offered arbitration, now would Sheets have rejected it, if there were some undisclosed complication regarding Sheets' elbow. Conspiracy theory kind of stuff, I guess. I see Sheets as a #2 type starting pitcher ( at least in overall projected value) and would pay him as one. That's what a 3.6 ERA over 160 basically is, I think Assuming that a replacement level pitcher gets you a 5.25 ERA (that may be too low?): 3.6/160 = 4.0/210 = 3 wins over replacement = 1 win over ave = $15 mil/year. If Melvin would rather have the 4 ERA pitcher that should be expected to pitch the whole year, great. The question is, who? If it's a afree agent, how long would the deal have to be and what kiind of compensation would he lose. If it's via a trade, what talent does he lose?
  16. rluzinski
    A Marcel ERA projection is just the weighted average FIP from the last 3 years. For KRod, his FIP for the last 3 years has been 2.72, 2.70 and 3.22. You are right that Marcel ignores leagues, So KRod's projected ERA in the NL iight be closer to 3.0. Sounds like, when all is said and done, Kod will be making a lot more than $40 mil from this contract.
  17. rluzinski
    CC was never going to play for anywhere near 5/100. Sure, if this were an auction, the Yankees took the bid from 60% fair market value right to maybe 110% but so what? They have the extra financial resources and didn't want to wait for someone else to bid at 85-90% and make CC rethink his position. I am fine with this, provided that the Brewers get their first round compensation.
  18. rluzinski
    It's almost all just blind speculation, sprinkled in with a few "friend of a friend" opinions thrown in.
  19. rluzinski
    Marcels projects a 3.27 ERA for 2009. He'll do that over something like 70 IP. Even acknowledging that those innings will be high leverage ones on average, is it a given that this is steal for the Mets? I honestly think we need a panic thread so certain posters don´t put their panic posts in like every single thread. I think the point has been made and is shared. Isn't it mostly just 2 posters cutting and pasting the same response, everytime anyone is signed?
  20. rluzinski
    Good point hawing, it worked for Kendall so it just might help out Hall to. Kendall pretty much nailed his pre-Lasik projection, so I'm going to have to say that it had no obvious effect.
  21. rluzinski
    If this really is a league min signing, what's the problem? He's not even an average thirdbasemen but he's not getting paid like one. And Melvin has months left to upgrade.
  22. rluzinski
    Marcel Projections for 2009: Sheets: 3.60 ERA, 171 IP Sabathia: 3.22 ERA, 211 IP CC clearly projects to be the superior pitcher, both in performance and innings. Offering Sheets $15 mil already has that injury risk built in. He would be worth more if he projected to have 200+ IP next year. In contrast, CC's projection assumes that he's basically healthy for the entire year. CC at 6/$140 is probably more of a risk than Sheets at 2/$30 or even 3/$45. There's no question that CC is the bigger risk if an opt out is offered. I've seen estimated that say Sheets is worth $43 mil over 3 years even if you assume he will only pitch 430 innings over that period.
  23. rluzinski
    Perhaps someone could find the link but I believe The Hardball Times did a study that estimated the free agent value of the average type A compensation. I want to say it was in the $8-$9 mil range. So while Sheets projects to be worth around 2/$30 mil, he would really cost the Brewers closer to 2/$40. Looking at the big picture, it might not be a wise decision to do something like that (if it's even something Sheets would accept from the Brewers). Of course, assuming Sabathia and Sheets walk, the Brewers are going to have to get another starting pitcher somewhere. They may have to give up that $8-$9 mil in draft picks themselves...
  24. rluzinski
    About a 1 in 33.6 mil chance of winning....
  25. rluzinski
    FYI, half my sample had ERA's under 3, and the average ERA was 3.84. No conclusion along with this fact, just saying. Well, that certainly suggests that the effect might by small but I'm sure you could find a could pitchers in your sample that were limited in opportunity by performance. Kind of hard to objectively determine which, after the fact, though. But because there are so many injured pitchers who never recover or return to form, the average age curve for all pitchers is actually positive sloping at every age (ERA on the y-axis). So I just went with a linear trend line. You mean, the sample keeps getting smaller (starting pitchers fail to qualify by pitching too few innings) but the ERAs go up? Those graphs are great, BTW.
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