SI Picks Brewers for 3rd in Central

[bullox]

I actuaaly glad not many are picking us it better off that the team again just sneaks up on the Cubs .

 

 

The Cubs know who is who, and they also know who they were trailing in the Central last year for a good portion of the year. The Brewers aren't sneaking up on anybody.

[SoCalBrewfan]

But this happens every year...the analysis is often based on free agent signings and trades, with a healthy sprinkle of gut feeling, but little regard for the fundamentals like, say, runs scored and allowed. Brewers lost Cordero, Reds got him, so that overrides the hundred plus run gap between the teams last year.

 

The Reds do have some nice young talent on board, so they'll get some buzz by writers trying to look ahead and guess the next big thing. Sadly for them, it seems that the new manager there is looking to crappy vets ahead of the youngsters...which might be fine in the long run unless and until they start to change the young guys' approach, bench them a few times, proclaim them the savior of the franchise, then bench them again, only to wonder why their youngsters aren't as good as advertised. The great irony of course is that this time Corey Patterson has switched roles...

 

As a fan in the big picture, rather than just a Brewers fan, you have to like the collection of youngsters in Cincy...it's very much like the Brewers a year or three ago. Let the Reds have some love...maybe it'll get some young Brewers fired up.

[BADGERJOBOB]

Could the Reds improve by 15 wins this season and reach the SI projection?

Not with Corey Patterson as their starting CF'er.

Patterson is just keeping the seat warm until Jay Bruce comes up and Bruce is a STUD. We are talking BA minor league player of the year, similar impact to what Ryan Braun provided us good.

 

Having said that, I don't see where we upgraded from last year. Our starting pitching and relief pitching is a huge question mark.

 

Should we finish higher than the Reds? Yes, but I would not be surprised if the Reds pass us by this year. Its just unfortunate that a lot of Brewer fans are looking through rose colored glasses and solely banking on all of our young players to step it up to the next level.

[RyDogg66]

Could the Reds improve by 15 wins this season and reach the SI projection?

Not with Corey Patterson as their starting CF'er.

Patterson is just keeping the seat warm until Jay Bruce comes up and Bruce is a STUD. We are talking BA minor league player of the year, similar impact to what Ryan Braun provided us good.

 

Having said that, I don't see where we upgraded from last year. Our starting pitching and relief pitching is a huge question mark.

 

Should we finish higher than the Reds? Yes, but I would not be surprised if the Reds pass us by this year. Its just unfortunate that a lot of Brewer fans are looking through rose colored glasses and solely banking on all of our young players to step it up to the next level.

So because we are looking for guys like Hart, Fielder, Braun, Gallardo, etc to build on what they have already proven to be at the major league level we are looking through rose colored glasses, but SI, proclaiming that the Reds youngsters who across the board havent really done anything in the majors will not only equal what the Brewers youngsters did last year, but also surpass any gains this year ISNT looking through rose colored glasses?

 

[BrewCrewForever]

While I think the Reds will have a nice season I don't think they will be better then us or the Cubs. I guess I could care less what SI thinks. Sure it's nice to say "well SI picked us to win the division". But in the end I would rather actually win it.

[Gopher74]

What difference does it make how highly or not highly regarded our young starters are? There's not going to be more than one at a time in the rotation while we see mediocre veterans like Vargas, Bush and Suppan cost the Brewers another postseason berth.

You're really not even a Brewers fan, are you?

And what difference does it make if we have several good young starters?

 

In any event, I'll assume you've changed your mind since we've gotten rid of Vargas, correct?

[Gopher74]

I think we are concentrating on the wrong thing here. forget about the reds and who finishes second or third. the main thing to worry about is the Division crown. because second place in this division is not going to garner the wild card . i don't want to be following the team in a wild card chase in September, because like last year, we won't be close.

 

We need to stop trying to finish second, and start trying to win the division. if we can't win the division, all of the rest doesn't really matter.

I don't believe anyone on here has said anything at all about us wanting to take 2nd place. The converstion is about how laughable it is that they view the Reds as being better than us. The fact that they think the Cubs are better isn't quite as laughable.

 

I'm also pretty sure we didn't "try" to finish in 2nd last year, so there's really no need to "stop trying" to finish in 2nd.

And by the way, why can't the WC come from the NLC? Who is the 2nd place team in another division that's going to be so much better than the Cubs or Brewers? That's an outdated idea. The NLC isn't a bad division any longer no matter what John Kruk says.

[RightFieldCoder]

I know Russ is much better at stats than I am. But I do have a question about the projections. If the Brewers are projected to win the division 30% of the time and have the 2nd highest total, does that necessarily mean that they are projected to finish in 2nd? I think that just means they are projected to finish 1st 30% of the time. If they are projected 2nd 20% and 3rd 50%, doesn't that mean they are projected to finish 3rd? I still think they are projected for 2nd, but that graph doesn't show it.

[TooLiveBrew]

2nd would probably be the likliest outcome, but I'll let some numbers people tackle that one.

 

 

Should we finish higher than the Reds? Yes, but I would not be surprised if the Reds pass us by this year. Its just unfortunate that a lot of Brewer fans are looking through rose colored glasses and solely banking on all of our young players to step it up to the next level.

 

What next level? You want Prince hitting 70 HR? YoGa having a BB/K ratio of 1/10? The Reds are not a more talented team than the Brewers, and even adding Bruce won't change that. They're a team to take very seriously, and to keep an eye on contending in the next 2-3 years, but for 2008 it'd take a bunch of serious injuries for the Reds to surpass the Crew imo.

[mothershipconnection]

The Cubs will be tied for 3rd in wins in all of baseball? Yeah...

Cincy is improved but isn't for real, and are managed by a moron. I'm pretty confident that Colorado ain't winning 89 games, unless maybe they have more games against SF than I thought.

[brewjihad]

Two power lefties, Lilly and Rich Hill

...from the Cub preview on SI.com. That Ted Lilly is sure powerful. First of all, his last name is Lilly. Second, I have never seen him top 90.

[drezdn]

IIRC, SI picked the Brewers to be third (or worse) last year as well.

[RightFieldCoder]

Looking closely at the Brewers Bench, no wonder we're ranked 3rd. They have our three best bench players as Gwynn, Cousell, and Munson. I wonder what happened to Gross, Kapler, Dillon, etc?

[snyttri]

The SI prediction should protect the Brewers from any jinxes SI curses them with. The more hype the Cubs get the more pressure they'll feel all year, and pressure and Cubs don't mix well.

[bucks2281]

Its just unfortunate that a lot of Brewer fans are looking through rose colored glasses and solely banking on all of our young players to step it up to the next level.

 

What's the next level? The Brewers squandered a playoff berth last year. They need to continue to do what they did last year, excluding an August swoon.

[BrewCrewForever]

Lilly and Hill power lefties? Now that is funny.

[RyDogg66]

What difference does it make how highly or not highly regarded our young starters are? There's not going to be more than one at a time in the rotation while we see mediocre veterans like Vargas, Bush and Suppan cost the Brewers another postseason berth.

You're really not even a Brewers fan, are you?

And what difference does it make if we have several good young starters?

 

In any event, I'll assume you've changed your mind since we've gotten rid of Vargas, correct?

Heh. I thought the exact same thing to myself. I searched for a picture of Wilford Brimley or the Grumpy Old Men, but in the end I didnt want to waste the time to post it.

 

[rluzinski]

If the Brewers are projected to win the division 30% of the time and have the 2nd highest total, does that necessarily mean that they are projected to finish in 2nd? I think that just means they are projected to finish 1st 30% of the time.

 

It's a function of each team's average win total and its standard deviation but no other team is even close, so it's easy to eyeball the Brewers being the favorites for second place. The Brewers are expected to win about 7 games more than the third place team, which is a huge margin:

 

Cubs: 88.2

Brewers: 85.0

Cardinals: 78.3

Reds: 76.9'

Astros: 74.6

Pirates: 69.8