Bush has to STAY (was Bush has to go)

[rluzinski]

Worst case scenario is he is as bad as Bush which we are putting up with anyway.

 

I will post it again:

 

ERA, Last 3 Years:

Bush: 4.41, 5.12, 6.56

Weaver: 5.76, 6.20, 6.69 (AAA)

 

Weaver being as good as Bush is the worst case scenario? Give me one good reason why I should think Weaver is even AS good as Bush. And even if we think that the Brewers only have a 1 in 3 chance of winning when Bush starts, that doesn't mean that it might as well be zero. Far from it.

 

As others have pointed out, Bush's peripherals have been pretty bad this year, so his bloated ERA has certainly been earned so far. That said, just making random moves and hoping for the unexpected to occur is no kind of solution. If that's a viable strategy, you might as well leave Bush in the rotation and hope he starts pitching like he did in 2006. Expected? Of course not, but it's possible!

 

If Melvin wants to find a replacement for Bush that is clearly more talented than him, I think that he'll have to acquire him via trade. Of course, I'm assuming that McClung predictably bombs in the starting rotation and Villy gets his spot back. If I'm wrong, I could see Villy taking Bush's spot if Bush is still sporting an ERA over 6 in a month.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I'm not real comfortable with Weaver either, and that's why I started a thread in the minor league forum checking the other talent in AAA and AA. It sure isn't looking good. Looks like we're stuck with a loss every 5 games unless we score 10 runs!

[TooLiveBrew]

I want to point out that there certainly isn't no value in most of what Bush brings to the table. Yes, he doesn't appear capable of working much more than 5 or 6 innings in any given start. However, he still provides the Brewers with quite a few good innings, and that should not be overlooked. He's not what a playoff team would desire as a rotation member, but the Brewers could certainly do worse.

 

The problem imo is that he has (seemingly) unique usage requirements -- Yost at this point hasn't seemed particularly aware of this, which in turn has led to many Bush 'implosion innings' that so frustrate Brewers fans. As disheartening as that can be, Dave Bush has the talent to turn in 4-6 innings of better than league-avg. innings each time he takes the hill. That can tax a bullpen to be sure, but the focus this season was on building a more durable 'pen. With McClung, DiFelice, Villy, etc. available to work multiple innings, I don't see how we should just give up on Bush. It would be great to have 5 SP that go out & turn in 6 IP or more each time (or most times) out, but that really isn't the way SP work much anymore.

 

Instead of making blanket statements about Bush (who clearly has struggled so far), I think it might be better to acknowledge his strong suits as well as his flaws. Imho he obviously can produce good innings, but perhaps it's time to start evaluating what he is, as opposed to what we all hope/wish he could be. Perhaps I'm in the vast minority here, but I'd love to hear some others' thoughts.

 

 

EDIT: I started typing this post as the top of the 5th started tonight, not in reaction to Bush going 6 strong innings.

[dadofandrew]

Bush would be of interest to 29 other teams. I'm far from ready to throw him away. He's never going to be a star, but he'd be on every staff (or ready in AAA). The season is not even a third over yet. Hopefully, Dave will still win 10 games for us.

[BrewCrewForever]

Nice outing by Bush today. Glad he didn't get stuck with a loss. For sure earned another start.

[T B0NE 10]

I still wish he could not start off so bad each and every game.......It seems at times he gives batting practice and at times he is good. You never know what your gonna get and when. I don't trust him, but there isnt many players I really have to say I trust. I guess I trust Sheets, Yo, Braunie, and Hart to get the job done and thats about it

[rluzinski]

Looks like we're stuck with a loss every 5 games unless we score 10 runs!

 

And as I keep pointing out, that just isn't true. Even a very pessimistic estimate might peg Bush as a 5.5 ERA pitcher going forward. A 5.5 ERA pitcher gives up around 3 or 4 runs in an average 6 inning start. An average team will still win around 40% of the time with that kind of performance from their starting pitcher. Don't get me wrong, that's a terrible win percentage but people need to stop acting like it's zero.

[TooLiveBrew]

And as I keep pointing out, that just isn't true.

 

It's not about what's true or not. It's just a way to feel good by venting frustration imo.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Bush made a comparable amount of mistakes that he has in every game this season tonight. It's a testimony to his bad luck so far this season and his good luck tonight. And for some stupid reason the guy just can't pitch on the road. Can we just pitch Bush at home and spot start somebody else like DeFelice or Villanueva on the road? It's sickening how bad Bush is on the road and I just can't figure out why because Miller Park is no pitchers park.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Bush would be of interest to 29 other teams.

Then how did he clear waivers in April?

[endaround]

They were revokable waivers. Claiming him would just screw up Milwaukee's roster plans nothing more

[BoKnowsBall]

Im pretty sure that it was stated that there is a gentleman's agreement not to claim anyone when they are put out there early in the season like that

[dadofandrew]

Almost every player with an option was waived in early April. No one was claimed. Yikes.

[berniebrewer4life]

Well, bush's last start gave me hope he can salvage his season. Not time to drop him yet.

[rluzinski]

Bush actually looked a little better yesterday. While he's typically thrown 2 strikes for every ball, not including last night, he's thrown only 469 strikes vs. 301 balls in 2008. Last night, of the 92 pitches he threw, 57 were strikes and 35 balls, so some improvement there.

 

The velocity on his fastball also improved last night. According to Pitch f/x, he averaged 90.3 MPH last year vs. 88.6 this year. Last night, however, he threw 57 fastballs with an average velocity of 90.2 MPH.

 

All was not rosy last night, though. He still gave up a ton of flyballs, which has been an issue this year and is a big part of why his HR rate is so high (although his HR/FB is also up). He's going to have to drastically cut down on that HR rate for any chance of salvaging his season.

[jwill535]

Well, bush's last start gave me hope he can salvage his season. Not time to drop him yet.

Last night is the main problem with Bush, he goes out there and stinks up the joint for most of his appearances. When his job is truly on the line he goes out there and spins a pretty good game. He does just enough not to get fired.

 

[Tbadder]

Is he pitching UP this year? Is that the reason for the excessive flyballs? I know a lot of people say that the low strike or low ball are way more desirable than the high strike or high ball. Because if Bush is simply pitching high I wiould suspect his problem is more mechanical and can be straightened out. Anyone know in general if that's been his problem this year or is it simply he gets too much of the plate.

[endaround]

His velocity has been way down especially his first two starts. Bush at 86 mph gets way too much of the plate not to get hit hard.

[joepepsi]

I missed the middle innings but early in the game he looked to be throwing lots of pitches up in the zone right through the middle of the plate. Anything he tried to keep down against righties went outside. I've always liked the guy so I'm glad the game went well for him. Still, it sure seemed like it could have just as easily been 5-0 after 2 innings. He had a little Vargas Magic going on, methinks.

[hauser42]

Bush had some luck last night and maybe he was due for some after the start he has had. For now he keeps getting to start games for this team, but not sure that it is a big deal as McClung is also a starter for the team.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Do any of our stat mavens have some stats on "Quality Starts"? If I'm not mistaken, last night was Bush's first quality start of the year. How do our guys stack up versus the rest of the league? From what I recall, Sheets & Yo have the most...maybe Soup or Parra have had a few, but not much beyond that. Just curious...I always thought that was a better measure of whether the starter is doing his job versus W/L.

[TooLiveBrew]

Apr. 15 @ StL

 

6 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 2 BB/5 K

 

 

May 12 v. StL

 

6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB/1 K

[kramnoj]

Per ESPN, the Brewers have 21 Quality Starts, currently 23rd in the league.

 

By my count, Sheets has 6, Parra has 1 (he just doesn't go deep in enough games), Suppan has 5, Villenueva has 3, Bush has 3 and Gallardo had one in each of 3 starts.

[TooLiveBrew]

The quality start can be a bit misleading, though, since it tries to make ER an individual stat. As long as we can get the 6 IP part of the QS a bit more consistently, I don't think we'll have to worry about the ER part as much.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Thanks...I think when they showed a ranking during the game the other night, they cut it off at 3 so Bush's 2 (before yesterday) didn't show up. Do you guys have a favorite metric to judge the effectiveness of our starters? I just remember last year when Capuano went through that huge losing streak, he still posted some decent outings and didn't pitch much worse than Vargas who was getting more wins. Everyone seemed to focus on the W/L.