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My first six picks mock:


I'll toss out my "first six picks" mock - and let y'all comment away.

 

16. Jemile Weeks, IF, Miami - I want an option at either SS or 3B who can be ready by 2010 to replace either JJ Hardy or Bill Hall/Branyan in the IF. http://www.brewerfan.net/ViewAmateurPlayerProfile.do?playerId=778&draftId=6

32. Brett Hunter, RHP, Pepperdine - Might be a key bullpen arm in 2009 - or sooner. http://www.brewerfan.net/ViewAmateurPlayerProfile.do?playerId=783&draftId=6

35. Cole St. Clair, LHP, Rice - Could be a quick addition to the rotation http://www.brewerfan.net/ViewAmateurPlayerProfile.do?playerId=771&draftId=6

53. Petey Paramore, C, Arizona State - Think Mickey Tettleton behind the plate for the Brewers. I'll take that offense! http://www.brewerfan.net/ViewAmateurPlayerProfile.do?playerId=806&draftId=6

54. Carlos Gutierrez, RHP, Miami - Four-pitch pitcher who could be a good starter. http://www.brewerfan.net/ViewAmateurPlayerProfile.do?playerId=843&draftId=6

62. Kyle Long, 1B/LHP, St. Anne's Belfield HS (VA) - Take your pick, dominating starter or Prince Fielder's replacement. http://www.brewerfan.net/ViewAmateurPlayerProfile.do?playerId=787&draftId=6

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Is Long expected to be around at #62 -- has something changed in the perception of Long? I thought he was a lock for Rd. 1.

For the most part, I tried to limit the picks to those listed at or below the Brewerfan.net ranking in the draft.

Hence, I assumed that at 16, anyone in the top 15 was not going to be available (already drafted).

The only exception is Gutierrez at 54 (he is 53 overall), but I figured I could get away with it because the Brewers have 53, which went to Paramore (something about a switch-hitting catcher with power...).

 

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Typically college players go higher than ranked and HS players go lower than ranked because of signability. Thus why Long may not go in the first round. Despite what he says, I would not put it past him to use football as leverage or pursue football entirely - linemen are being seen as more important these days and thus they are starting to dominate the first round of the NFL draft. He is intriguing all right, and perhaps if they let him play college football in addition to baseball that may help him sign. A rookie salary cap in the NFL might drive him towards baseball also. Also because of signability, I can almost guarantee that Friedrich won't be there at #16; hard to believe he would make it past the Nationals, much less the A's and Twins. (edit - didn't see the injury to Scheppers. He could very well be there at #32 or #35, and a risk I wouldn't mind them taking.)

 

Hunter is a guy I thought long and hard about in my mock in the other thread. But I don't think the Brewers will take five pitchers in the top six (even though I would not mind it) thus I gave the nod to Gillaspie (plus Gillaspie's LH bat). I would not be unhappy at all if the Brewers picked Hunter though.

 

Lindblom is another guy I seriously considered at #62. Someone in the other thread said you can get good college closers in the 2nd round and that is the direction I hope they go with at least one of Lindblom, Perry, Bittle, Weatherford, Schlereth, and Price. My favorites in that group are Perry, Weatherford, and Lindblom. Schlereth could be a poor man's Billy Wagner, more likely a shorter Dan Plesac.

 

Something about Gose just screams "Melvin type of 2nd round draft pick".

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I would hope we would go more SP then anything else...

 

16 Tim Melville RHP (HS) Jack Z has a hisortry of taking HS arms with huge upside but i would like Christian Friedrich but i dont see him getting past MN IMO though

Reading his mailbag article today, Tim Melville is Haudricourt's guess for the first pick too.

Q: Terry J of Racine - I recently read that V Wells is going to announce the Jays first round pick, who will announce the Brewers pick? Any names you want to throw out as a possible Brewer pick?

 

A: Tom Haudricourt - The Brewers are sending assistant GM Gord Ash to the draft to announce their pick. TV analyst Dave Nelson also will be there to represent the club. As for throwing out a name, I'll go with Tim Melville, a prep pitcher out of Missouri who is highly rated but might not be still on the board when the Brewers make the 16th pick.

 

 

 

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Nice job clancy. You have a couple of guys listed that I like (Hunter, St. Clair, Gutierrez), so that of course makes me an even bigger fan of your projection, and Weeks and Long wouldn't be bad either (Paramore I'm not sold on).

 

I'm sure it won't shake out this way, but I'd love to see the Brewers target some power college arms that they normally wouldn't have the chance to draft. I've mentioned this before, but the draft is shaking out as though it really could favor the Brewers in this regard.

 

Scheppers with pick #16, Hunter with one of the sandwich picks and Chris Carpenter with one of their sandwich picks or early 2nd round picks would give the organization three college pitchers that all have top of the rotation size and stuff. Add in someone like Zach Putnam and Carlos Gutierrez, hard throwers that could begin their pro careers as starters, and you could have some really exciting arms to look forward to, and guys that could move very fast if they stay healthy and thrive under pro instruction.

 

Of course the medical history is somewhat troubling on several of those guys, but even if you have a Justin Verlander type of revelation from one of those young pitchers you would have to think the effort would be a success.

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Nice job clancy. You have a couple of guys listed that I like (Hunter, St. Clair, Gutierrez), so that of course makes me an even bigger fan of your projection, and Weeks and Long wouldn't be bad either (Paramore I'm not sold on).

 

I'm sure it won't shake out this way, but I'd love to see the Brewers target some power college arms that they normally wouldn't have the chance to draft. I've mentioned this before, but the draft is shaking out as though it really could favor the Brewers in this regard.

 

Scheppers with pick #16, Hunter with one of the sandwich picks and Chris Carpenter with one of their sandwich picks or early 2nd round picks would give the organization three college pitchers that all have top of the rotation size and stuff. Add in someone like Zach Putnam and Carlos Gutierrez, hard throwers that could begin their pro careers as starters, and you could have some really exciting arms to look forward to, and guys that could move very fast if they stay healthy and thrive under pro instruction.

 

Of course the medical history is somewhat troubling on several of those guys, but even if you have a Justin Verlander type of revelation from one of those young pitchers you would have to think the effort would be a success.

Why aren't you sold on Paramore? I don't think switch-hitting catchers with good OBP and the ability to be an Overbay-type doubles machine grow on trees - so, if he is available at 53, I think the Crew ought to take him. This guy's "struggles" at Team USA involved getting 20 walks out of 63 ABs. I'm tempted to write off the average struggles as a small sample size. This guy's OBP skills, though, are about as good as Prince's power is - probably a 12 on a scale from one to 10.

 

Believe it or not, I tried to avoid the high school arms. The Brewers need help sooner rather than later. Hunter could be in the bullpen by July 1. St. Clair and Gutierrez could be in the rotation by Opening Day 2010, I think.

Jemile Weeks is someone I'd tap as a shortstop or third baseman. I know he seems to be pegged at second, but I think he could replace Hall at third, or play shortstop, with Gamel at third. As a bonus, it means that Rickie can move to second or third in the order, probably second (in front of Braun and Fielder).

Long's my pick simply because I think he could replace Fielder sooner rather than later. I think the contract situation with Fielder is not good - and at this juncture, it's best to have a replacement in the pipeline... and Long could easily be as good a 50-homer guy as Fielder, with some better defense to the mix. If Fielder does go for a long-term deal, great, we can either move Long to the mound, or see the Brewers push for the NL to adopt the designated hitter. If Fielder doesn't sign, then the Brewers can let him walk after 2011 or trade him after 2010, and have Long as their opening day 2011/2012 first baseman (depending on what they decide to do).
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Anthony Gose hasn't pitched in over a month because of rotator cuff tendonitis. He has stated he has no interest in ever pitching again. He won't be selected by the Brewers as a pitcher.

Why aren't you sold on Paramore? I don't think switch-hitting catchers with good OBP and the ability to be an Overbay-type doubles machine grow on trees - so, if he is available at 53, I think the Crew ought to take him.
Paramore hasn't hit well. 327 with 6 homers and 9 doubles as a junior with marginal bat speed doesn't project as a future big league hitter. He might be a Jesse Levis type with his ability to draw walks, but I sure hope we don't pass on the next Gallardo or Hardy to pick a backup catcher.

I'm suprised so many are projecting the Brewers to reach for a catcher when the Brewers are extremely deep at catcher. With Lucroy and Salome, the Brewers have as much catching depth in the minors as any team in baseball. Shawn Zarraga will make his debut this summer also, he has very good tools, and the Brewers paid him 3-4 round money to sign.

Hunter could be in the bullpen by July 1.
Hunter hasn't pitched in months, so it will be about 6 weeks before he makes his pro debut once he signs. He likely won't see A+ this year, even if he is healthy.

St. Clair and Gutierrez could be in the rotation by Opening Day 2010, I think

St. Clair hasn't seen his velocity come back yet, and he was pounded in a few early season starts. He is pitching at 87-89, topping out at 91, as a reliever. His velocity would take another hit as a starter.

I saw Guitierrez pitch a week ago, nice power sinker, but nothing else. He seems like a future middle reliever to me.

Any pitcher selected by the Brewers now would be plugged into A ball at best if used as a starter. The Brewers stregnth at A and A+ is there arms. If the Brewers would draft for need, based on that, then they'd go position players. Jack Z has it right when he said there true need is talent. Quality young pitching with MLB experience was available in trade this past offseason, but the Brewers couldn't make a move for it, because we didn't have the talent to trade.


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"88.6% of all statistics are made up right there on the spot" Todd Snider

 

-Posted by the fan formerly known as X ellence. David Stearns has brought me back..

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X already touched on my concerns for Paramore. I'm not sold that he's going to hit. It's easy to peg him as a future Overbay type of hitter as a catcher just by looking at his numbers, but he hasn't been able to make too many adjustments to succeed at the college level so far, and he really struggled hitting with a wood bat last summer. I don't care if you walk a ton, you still need to be able to hit.

 

Gutierrez has more than a sinker, although that is his best pitch. I really like the idea of trying him as a starter, as he has the frame and loose easy arm strength to succeed in that role, and if he doesn't, he goes back to being a reliever.

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X already touched on my concerns for Paramore. I'm not sold that he's going to hit. It's easy to peg him as a future Overbay type of hitter as a catcher just by looking at his numbers, but he hasn't been able to make too many adjustments to succeed at the college level so far, and he really struggled hitting with a wood bat last summer. I don't care if you walk a ton, you still need to be able to hit.

 

Gutierrez has more than a sinker, although that is his best pitch. I really like the idea of trying him as a starter, as he has the frame and loose easy arm strength to succeed in that role, and if he doesn't, he goes back to being a reliever.

Still 63 ABs is a small sample size. I'm not ready to write him off, especially when the walk rate was 1 walk every 3 ABs or thereabouts. The guy's plate discipline is that good, I think the hits will come.

 

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Clancyphile, thanks for starting this thread. With the big league team struggling, the mock draft discussion is a pleasant diversion. Given Jack's Z. preference of selecting the best available player, I expect him to maximize the talent entering the system rather than trying to fill holes in the current big league line-up. Assuming Mark Anastasio is willing to write the checks for all the signing bonuses, this is the club's opportunity to build the nucleus for a pennant run in 2013.

 

Using the BA Top 200 prospect list (LINK), this is who my inner Jack Z would draft:

16 - Casey Kelly (ranked 19 by BA) Jack Z hopes to draft the next Robin Yount in Kelly, the perfect balance of tools and performance at a premium position.

32 - Jake Odorizzi (ranked 32), an elated draft team in the Brewer war room adds this power arm from the Land of Lincoln

35 - Issac Galloway (ranked 36) - the organizational need for a center fielder dovetails with Jack Z's fetish for toolsy prospects

53 - Destin Hood (ranked 54) - determined to corner the market for corner outfield propects, Jack Z pulls the trigger on this Alabama prep

54 - Zeke Spruill (ranked 69) - the Brewers harvest this sinker-slider pitcher from a strong crop of Georgia prepsters

62 - Adrian Nieto (ranked 73) - it can't be a true blue Brewer draft without a high pick spent on a catcher, so this Florida prep will fit the bill

94 - Brad Holt (ranked 98) - finally time to break into the college ranks with this UNC-Wilmington flamethrower

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I'll throw my hat in:

 

16 - Josh Fields, RHP (Georgia)

32 - Eric Thames, OF (Pepperdine)

35 - Brett Lawrie, C (British Columbia HS)

53 - Chris Carpenter, RHP (Kent State)

54 - Brett Hunter, RHP (Pepperdine)

62 - Jordan Danks, OF (Texas)

94 - Scott Gorgen, RHP (UC-Irvine)

 

I'm tempted to take Purdue RHP Josh Lindblom at #62 as well.

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For the record:

 

#16) Scheppers

#32) Gillaspie

#35) Schlereth - they need LHP coming out of the pen (but something tells me that battlekow hit the right pick - Team Canada never passes on a fellow countryman)

#53) Putnam

#54) Gose (even if he doesn't want to pitch Melvin loves the speed in CF, a five-tool prospect)

#62) Lindblom or Weatherford - a closer to rush to the bigs

#94) Jimenez

 

(Edit - clean MRI puts Scheppers back in at #16; edit #2 - Schlereth is rising, probably won't be there at #35 so he flips with Putnam)

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I'll take a shot:

 

#16) Brett Lawrie 3B/C (British Columbia HS) Great bat but probably won't catch in pro ball

#32) Tanner Scheppers RHP (Fresno State) Injury makes him fall, can't pass on talent with extra pick

#35) Conor Gillaspie 3B (Wichita State) Can't pass on his bat

#53) Chris Carpenter RHP (Kent State) Experienced pitcher who should move quickly

#54) Destin Hood OF (Alabama HS) Prep speedster with tools, would have to sign away from Alabama football team

#62) Brett Mooneyham LHP (California HS) Extremely tough sign, but worth a run at with extra picks since he has major league stuff

#94) Antonio Jimenez C (Puerto Rico HS) Young catching prospect

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#16) Brett Lawrie 3B/C (British Columbia HS) Great bat but probably won't catch in pro ball

Baseball America:

The more scouts we talk to, the more we find who think Lawrie could stick as a catcher..
PG Crosschecker:
Canada's top prospect has put on a show with the bat this spring, and his value is enhanced for teams that think he can catch in the future.
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Odorizzi plays ball locally in my area. Really seems like a good kid, and was on the cover of the Sports page today. Would be cool to me if the Brewers got him at the end of the first round. Although I should mention that he finally gave up a run yesterday, maybe that will drop him to the second round.
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Keith Law is not so convinced that Lawrie will stick at catcher in the comments section of his May 25 blog:

 

"Lawrie can hit, maybe. He's got a good swing and has had some success this year with metal, but was a cipher with wood last summer, which is a significant concern. He also doesn't have a position; he catches now, but he's not a catcher long-term, and he's very rough at 2b. He's in the pile with Hewitt, Knapp, and a few other HS kids about to be overdrafted."

 

http://myespn.go.com/s/conversations/show/story/3411917

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It is possible that Lawrie will catch, but Lawrie's bat is so advanced that taking the time to have him develop as a catcher might slow his growth. He could move quicker if he develops at 3B or 2B.

If the Brewers believe he can catch, more of a reason for the Brewers to take him at 16.

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I'm not sure what Law is talking about. Lawrie's been hitting with wood this entire spring, and is used to hitting with wood since most Canadian Leagues use wood bats. He impressed scouts last summer on the showcase circuit (the East Coast Pro comes to mind), and again, they use wood bats, which is part of the main point about showcase events. The main travel circuit during the summer that uses metal bats is the BCS league, of which I don't know if Lawrie was a part of or not.

 

Lawrie's being able to catch or not is definitely more of a long-term project, and as noted his bat is thought to be more advanced that you may not want to slow his bat down. I think he could handle 3B, and if he can't he can move to a corner OF spot. I'm not so sure 2B is a good match for him, as I think he's going to get to big to have the range necessary for a middle IF.

 

He's a good fit for the first of two Twins first-round picks, as they probably won't have a chance to get him with their 2nd of two first's, and they do have a history of drafting Canadians. He's actually a very similar player to Michael Cuddyer given his skill-set.

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I recently participated in a mock draft over at projectprospect and I was in charge of the Brewers picks. Here's what I came away with:

16: Tanner Scheppers-RHP(I took the risk)
32: Zach Collier-OF
35: Kyle Lobstein-LHP
53: Tyson Ross-RHP
54: Trey Haley-RHP
62: Adrian Nieto-C

I think I might also be making their 3rd round pick.

What do you think? If you want you can just switch Collier and Scheppers because it might play out that way in the real draft(in terms of the area they are picked).
I do doubt that Ross will be there at 53, but I was happy to get him.

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Lawrie just hit 5 homers in a double header against the Mariners EST team in the Dominican Republic. He's easily the 2nd best HS bat in the draft. He's athletic, and he also has good speed, which is rarely mentioned. To me he doesn't seem to have that big of frame, so I don't know if he'll get that much bigger. I'd start him out at 2B. Nobody scouts Canada harder than the Brewers, and they always draft the bat. Lawrie is a perfect fit to Milwaukee, hopefully he's available at 16.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"88.6% of all statistics are made up right there on the spot" Todd Snider

 

-Posted by the fan formerly known as X ellence. David Stearns has brought me back..

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Lawrie just hit 5 homers in a double header against the Mariners EST team in the Dominican Republic. He's easily the 2nd best HS bat in the draft. He's athletic, and he also has good speed, which is rarely mentioned. To me he doesn't seem to have that big of frame, so I don't know if he'll get that much bigger. I'd start him out at 2B. Nobody scouts Canada harder than the Brewers, and they always draft the bat. Lawrie is a perfect fit to Milwaukee, hopefully he's available at 16.

The more I read about Lawrie, the more I like. I agree with X that this is the guy to go for with the first pick. The Brewers do have an excellent Canadian prospect (also from British Columbia) who plays 2B and 3B in Taylor Green, so being Canadian doesn't hurt at all http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

I think Lawrie have more power potential than Green though.

 

I read that Lawrie plays C and OF too, I'm not sure how good is he at those positions, but I'd be interested to explore his catching ability. A recent video of Lawrie in the infield, outfield, at C and in the batting cage

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BJ Surhoff made the transition to catcher, and he didn't have that big of a frame either. I'd start Lawrie at C; you can always move him from there.

 

That being said, I don't know that I would want a HS player at #16. I wouldn't mind Lawrie at #32 or #35 though.

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BJ Surhoff made the transition to catcher, and he didn't have that big of a frame either. I'd start Lawrie at C; you can always move him from there.
Thanks, I've been trying to figure out who Lawrie reminded me of physically. Its Surhoff. Strong thighs, cut upper body, strong forearms, runs well. Similar gate. Pretty sililar players, except that Lawrie has more raw power. Some scouts gave him a 70 rating on the power scale. Surhoff played a little SS, and I think could have played 2B as a young player, but the Brewers didn't need him there. I'd still put Lawrie at 2B. He'll hit in the bigs in 3 years, but he wouldn't be ready defensively as a catcher for 5 years.

 

 

That being said, I don't know that I would want a HS player at #16.

Is that because your hoping for a quick impact? Fielder debuted in the majors 3 years after he was drafted, Hardy 3 1/2 years, despite a major injury. I don't see a college player available at #16 who'll be significantly quicker to the bigs.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"88.6% of all statistics are made up right there on the spot" Todd Snider

 

-Posted by the fan formerly known as X ellence. David Stearns has brought me back..

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