What are the brewers chances of stealing the series from the Phillies?

[Legacy25GT]

I know its not good, but does anyone know how many times, a team has come back from down 0-2 to win a 5-game series? The optimistic fan side of me says, if only they can win the next two home games, they'll have CC going on regular rest for game 5, and then anything can happen. The other side says not to get your hopes up. Regardless, if they want a miracle to happen, they'll need to get a few more hot bats for some contageous hitting.

[homer]

[Nottso]

It's been done 7 times, the first time by the '82 Brewers.

[Marc Newfield of Dreams]

2.6%

[brewmann04]

Just let worry about winning Saturday game first

[bball123h]

Oversimplistic analysis: .50^3 = .125 = 12.5%

 

That is, if you assume we have a 50/50 chance of winning each game. The optimist says yes.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Very small chance...I'm just pulling for a win tomorrow and we'll see where it goes. The Phillies seem to be a lot like the Brewers in many ways...just a little better.

[Ennder]

It is more likely we get swept than win 2 games in the series in my opinion. The odds of us taking the series are very very small. The fact Sveum left Sabathia in after the grand slam lowered the odds even more as I don't expect him to bounce back much before that game 5 if it is to happen.

[I Heart Brewers]

I believe Dean Wormer said it best: "Zero point zero."

 

In all seriousness, I agree with brewmann, they need to win Saturday first.

[MBHA]

That 82 team was a much more experienced team. Starters - Simmons was 32, Cooper 32, Gantner 29, Yount 26, Molitor 25, Oglivie 33, Thomas 31, Moore 29. The same with the Pitchers. Sutton 37, Vuke 29, Caldwell 33, Haas 26, McClure 30, Fingers 35. They also had 2 veterans on the bench in Money and Howell.

 

The 08 team while it does have some vets is dominated by younger players who have put forth everything they had just to get here. Now you see them going through the pressure of the playoffs and most will fail before they succeed in those circumstances. It happens all the time. Philly flopped last year with much of the same team you see now.

 

Give these guys support now, but if they fail understand their best years are still to come.

[bucks2281]

17.57% -- that's what Baseball Prospectus says.

 

I don't believe it's ever been done in the NLDS before. With Dave Bush and Jeff Suppan on the mound the next two days ... yikes. Let's focus on game 3; if the bats can get going, then I'll feel better about our chances of taking this series back to Philadelphia.

[Patrick425]

The Phillies seem to be a lot like the Brewers in many ways

You mean the 82 Brewers....right?

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

I think there are similarities with our team. They are free swingers and not that great of a defensive team. They have plenty of holes in their rotation with an ace on top and some soft-tossers to round it out. Their bullpen is solid...with Lidge...no real comparison there with him, but the rest of the pen is comparable.

 

The differences are...they are better. Their lineup mixes righties and lefties better and has more experience. Rollins makes a big difference at the top. Lidge...big difference.

 

I guess I just see some similarities between the two.

[jhart05]

The fact Sveum left Sabathia in after the grand slam lowered the odds even more as I don't expect him to bounce back much before that game 5 if it is to happen.

 

 

 

Why? He'll have a full four days rest, if it does go 5 games.

[BrewCrewForever]

Well, it's small but we do have a chance. I think if we can win game 3 that puts a ton of pressure on the Phillies to win game 4 because they do not want to have this thing go 5. And if it does go 5 we would have CC on 4 days rest with revenge on his mind. If we can take these two at home, I have no doubt we win the series in Philly with CC throwing one of his gems. But, gotta win 3 and 4 which will be tough. I have faith in Bush tomorrow though.

[Patrick425]

Rollins makes a big difference at the top. Lidge...big difference.

 

I guess I just see some similarities between the two.

I have heard other people make the comparisons between the two teams as well. However, the Rollins/Lidge factor is huge. Also, it's clear to me that at leat at this point, the Phillies have more depth in their starting rotation.

[Wesrob1]

Any idea if the Phillies are going to work on a 3 man rotation, too? Basically, I want to know if the pitching matchups will be the same if the series goes the distance.

[Jimbo]

It's been done 7 times, the first time by the '82 Brewers.

The '81 Brewers nearly did it as well, against the Yankees - and doing it the hard way: lose first two at home then three on the road.

[Tbadder]

Who cares as long as the Cubs get beat!

[FVBrewerFan]

At this point, I would be happy with a Game 5. However, this offense has struggled to score more than 1-2 runs for a month now and I don't see that magically changing this weekend. Plus, Moyer is exactly the type of pitcher who gives Brewer hitters fits. After that, you get Hamels again. I smell a sweep, but I hope I'm wrong.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I have heard other people make the comparisons between the two teams as well. However, the Rollins/Lidge factor is huge. Also, it's clear to me that at leat at this point, the Phillies have more depth in their starting rotation.

I don't think so. It just seems that way because our offense is inept right now. The Phillies really have not impressed me. They've basically outplayed the Brewers for one inning in each game. In one inning we made an error and in the other we "walked" a pitcher with two outs. Some of those ball calls to Myers were ridiculous.

[jeffy]

17.57% -- that's what Baseball Prospectus says.

Oversimplistic analysis: .50^3 = .125 = 12.5%

 

That is' date=' if you assume we have a 50/50 chance of winning each game. The optimist says yes.[/quote']

I think the average MLB winning percentages are about 54% for home games and 46% for road games. So that would be 0.54 x 0.54 x 0.46 = 13.4%

 

17.57% seems much higher than I would have expected. Apparently we started out as the favorite with a 54.77% chance.

 

http://www.baseballprospe...istics/postseasonodds.php

 

Cubs are down to 13.79% after starting at 71.88%...ouch! that's gotta hurt.

[brewcrewreview]

In my gambling accounts, the Brewers are +720 to win the series, so yeah, that is about a 13.5% chance if the odds are fair.