Is this Weeks breakout year?

[nate82]

I am praying that Rickie keeps this up throughout the whole year and shows us what we all thought he could be when he was drafted. I am knocking on wood to make sure I don't jinx Weeks. But wow Rickie has been playing good defensively and his hitting so far this year has been great. I'm praying that this isn't just a fluke and Rickie is really going to breakout this year.

[WisconsinSportsRule]

I think that *if* Rickie has a good year, it would be a great time to talk contract, but he needs to prove some more to get that contract.

 

I've been saying to alot of people that I think this is Rickie's year, and I hope I'm right.

[TooLiveBrew]

I've backed Rickie for what seems like forever, and it's so wonderful to see him really starting to reach his potential. I thought '08 was going to be his breakout season... just looking so far like I was a year early http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Ennder]

To be fair Weeks did cut down on his Ks in 08 and his defense was improved though it slipped a bit late in the year so there were signs of improvement last year. Just his power was down and he didn't take as many walks so he had bad with the good!

[Gobias Industries]

The only thing I have a gripe with is he's not walking much yet. That's like the one skill he's been consistently above average in though, so I'm sure it will come.

 

What I really like is that he's hitting a ton of line drives and fly balls, and even going to RF with power. I don't think he had an opposite field homerun last year, and of course last night that's where he hit his.

 

I think he'll have a low 800ish OPS this year, which I'd be happy with. I don't think he's gonna have a breakout season along the lines of Utley or Kinsler numbers though.

[silversurferr]

I have always thought he could improve his defense. I am worried about the offense. He has great power potential, but still does not make consistent solid contact (pop ups and strike outs). He will be an absolute monster.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

I'm with TLB...he's been my breakout player for the last few years. Hopefully this will be the year. He looks good at the plate so far and much more at ease in the field. He still has bounced a couple to Fielder on double plays which makes me a little nervous.

[SenatorShriv]

I sure as heck hope so. I took a beating from my friends this off-season for continuing to back him. If he can bump up his on base percentage a few points from last year, show a little bit more power with the extra muscle he has added and continues to improve his defense I think that everyone will be singing his praises during the next off-season.

[logan82]

I would take 2008-2009 Rickie on defense. I prefer his 2007 batting stats to either year.

[JJHardy7]

It's too early to know. Weeks has been able to put up nice stretches. I think we'll know by the all-star break if this is 'the year'. I know this isn't a stat and just an opinion, but he really seems to be more confident this year. In past years, I felt he looked lost or confused at times.

[Gobias Industries]

It's too early to know. Weeks has been able to put up nice stretches. I think we'll know by the all-star break if this is 'the year'. I know this isn't a stat and just an opinion, but he really seems to be more confident this year. In past years, I felt he looked lost or confused at times.

I really agree with you on Rickie looking more confident or comfortable this year. I know they say Spring Training doesn't mean anything (especially to guys who stunk), but I was glad to see him have a big spring at the plate.

[joepepsi]

I agree Rickie looks great, and it's not just the new 'do. But his average (.257) and obp (.333), aren't much different from his career norms: .243/.333. His slugging is high at .486, thanks to 2 homers in only 35 at bats.

[BuckyBrewer61]

I agree Rickie looks great, and it's not just the new 'do. But his average (.257) and obp (.333), aren't much different from his career norms: .243/.333. His slugging is high at .486, thanks to 2 homers in only 35 at bats.

At this point of the season, I think the eye test is more useful than looking at the numbers, and I think we all agree with you that Rickie just plain looks better. Even though his avg and obp aren't too high, it seems as though his plate discipline is still solid and he will get his walks, and his approach has been very refreshing. A number of his outs have been well hit balls, such as the two long shots to the wall in deep right field in SF that would've been HR's in Miller Park. I don't want to do the math and know it's fudging the numbers, but replace two outs with HR's and I'm sure his numbers would look pretty darn good across the board.

[logan82]

I agree Rickie looks great, and it's not just the new 'do. But his average (.257) and obp (.333), aren't much different from his career norms: .243/.333. His slugging is high at .486, thanks to 2 homers in only 35 at bats.

Where did you come up with those career norms for Weeks? He has a career OBP around .350.

[nate82]

Fangraphs has Weeks OBP at .352 career wise.

[ILuvDaBush]

The Summer of Rickie!!!

 

The guy just looks relaxed defensively, which carries over to a cooler approach at the plate. And I am half-expecting an Utley/Kinsler-type breakout.

[TooLiveBrew]

A number of his outs have been well hit balls, such as the two long shots to the wall in deep right field in SF that would've been HR's in Miller Park. I don't want to do the math and know it's fudging the numbers, but replace two outs with HR's and I'm sure his numbers would look pretty darn good across the board

 

Re-emphasizing that this is just an example... Rickie's line under this scenario is .314/.385/.795/1.180

 

If he's able to hit more line drives this season, I think he has a shot to produce around that projected ceiling people have been hoping him to reach for years. Even if you just assume a .260 BA for the full season, a .260/.370/.450/.820 line would be fantastic to get from your second baseman. In other words, yes... I'm still hopelessly in Weeks's corner.

 

Also, boo to you, Randy Winn, for making two awesome catches in rightfield on nice shots from Rickie.

 

 

EDIT: Fixed my stupid math

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Small Sample size alert on this one, but the early indications are good. I'd like to see Weeks sustain an 800 OPS with above average defense like he did in 2007 and I'll be a happy camper.

[joepepsi]

I agree Rickie looks great, and it's not just the new 'do. But his average (.257) and obp (.333), aren't much different from his career norms: .243/.333. His slugging is high at .486, thanks to 2 homers in only 35 at bats.

Where did you come up with those career norms for Weeks? He has a career OBP around .350.

OOPs, sorry, that was a typo.

[rluzinski]

Weeks' 2008 Marcel Projection: .249/.357/.414/.772

 

Now, Weeks hasn't exactly been the model of health, so I could see a healthy Weeks beat that pretty easily but 35 AB really isn't going to make me change my expectations very much. A .250/.360/.440/.800 line seems about right for a healthy Weeks.

 

And almost by definition, you can't project a breakout year.

[DonMoney4Mgr]

He does seem to staying on the ball a lot better with less waggle. When he squares up, the ball just flies off his bat. I would like to see him bunt for base hits more often.

[mnevis]

That shot he took from Cueto might be a disincentive to bunt. I know I would be a little gun shy after that.

[Gobias Industries]

And the fact he's just not that great of a bunter.

 

As long as he keeps hitting to all fields his average and OBP will be fine.

[Ennder]

He had a 30% breakout rate in PECOTA and his 90th percentile line is .292/.407/.504 with a more reasonable 75th line of .282/.393/.478.

[DuWayne Steurer]

He had a 30% breakout rate in PECOTA and his 90th percentile line is .292/.407/.504 with a more reasonable 75th line of .282/.393/.478.

In other words, a match of 2008 AL MVP Dustin Pedroia (.376/.493/.869)