Bill James 2011 Projections

[sveumrules]

Are now available on fangraphs. Some notable triple slashes and innings pitched/FIPs below.

Weeks 257/358/444
Hart 272/332/484
Braun 310/372/551
Fielder 276/396/541
McGehee 282/339/451

Cain 279/345/379
Lucroy 257/329/364
Escobar 272/318/364
Gomez 258/311/363
Gamel 287/359/469

Gallardo 190/3.34
Wolf 229/4.43
Narvy 180/4.49
Axford 66/2.75

[logan82]

Off the top of my head, Braun's OBP seems high and .790 OPS out of McGehee would suck.

[monkeyman343434]

I wouldn't be surprised if that's what McGehee had as an OPS next year. It was only .801 in 2010. He's honestly just not that good, but at least he's cheap.

[joepepsi]

With the veterans these are just looking at what they did last year, then predicting they'll return a little closer to their mean. I say this every year, but despite the science that goes into all these winter projections, it seems one could be just as accurate making educated guesses.

[logan82]

With the veterans these are just looking at what they did last year, then predicting they'll return a little closer to their mean. I say this every year, but despite the science that goes into all these winter projections, it seems one could be just as accurate making educated guesses.

Probably but in general people are more optimistic than projection systems. Fangraphs asked for fan projections last year. Not sure how it turned out though.

[greeg35]

I think Weeks will continue to progress and will outperform those numbers.

[theavrock]

I wouldn't be surprised if that's what McGehee had as an OPS next year. It was only .801 in 2010. He's honestly just not that good, but at least he's cheap.

You realize that was 8th best among Major League 3rd basemen right? The argument that Casey is "not that good" is silly. .800 OPS players dont just grow on trees. Less than 60 players had an OPS of .800 or higher. Is he an elite hitter? No, but he is definitely above average.

[logan82]

I wouldn't be surprised if that's what McGehee had as an OPS next year. It was only .801 in 2010. He's honestly just not that good, but at least he's cheap.

You realize that was 8th best among Major League 3rd basemen right? The argument that Casey is "not that good" is silly. .800 OPS players dont just grow on trees. Less than 60 players had an OPS of .800 or higher. Is he an elite hitter? No, but he is definitely above average.

McGehee is projected to have a sub .800 OPS next year. Add in defense and he is blocking an arguably better player and McGehee becomes less popular. I don't think there would be much problem with McGehee if we didn't have Gamel.

 

 

[Ennder]

With the veterans these are just looking at what they did last year, then predicting they'll return a little closer to their mean. I say this every year, but despite the science that goes into all these winter projections, it seems one could be just as accurate making educated guesses.

They look at what they did the past 3 years, how the player has trended, how players their age tend to trend. More complex ones will throw in a little extra weighing based on how similar players have aged etc. Yeah educated guesses can get you pretty far but the systems are still better overall. Though I'm not sure about Bill James, his always do poorly compared to everyone else.

[BrewCrewForever]

He predicts pretty good numbers for Gamel.

 

.287/.359/.469

13 HR's

61 RBI's

116 Games

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't think Gamel would hit nearly .290 just yet, but I definitely think the OBP & SLG numbers are about what could be expected.

[Oldcity]

Gamel is the one that jumped out at me. That'd be a great first full season for him.

[Invader3K]

If Wolf and Narveson can both have a sub 4.50 FIP, that would be a nice start to rounding out the rotation.

[theavrock]

I wouldn't be surprised if that's what McGehee had as an OPS next year. It was only .801 in 2010. He's honestly just not that good, but at least he's cheap.

You realize that was 8th best among Major League 3rd basemen right? The argument that Casey is "not that good" is silly. .800 OPS players dont just grow on trees. Less than 60 players had an OPS of .800 or higher. Is he an elite hitter? No, but he is definitely above average.

McGehee is projected to have a sub .800 OPS next year. Add in defense and he is blocking an arguably better player and McGehee becomes less popular. I don't think there would be much problem with McGehee if we didn't have Gamel.

 

Agreed in that Gamel projects to be a better hitter, but the hate that the guy gets when he has been quite good for two seasons in a row really makes me scratch my head.

As to the predictions players outperform and underperform them all the time. Maybe someone smarter than I can find what BJ predicted for McGehee last year. I have no reason to think he is not going to put up over or close to a .800 OPS based on the last two seasons.

 

[TooLiveBrew]

.272/.328/.429/.757 (Link)

 

I'm a huge Gamel supporter, and I don't hate McGehee. I hate how the Brewers have handled the development of Gamel the past two seasons.

[mletto157]

I don't think anyone on here "hates" McGehee. Were we all big Lyle Overbay haters when Fielder was coming up in the system? No. If Overbay was kept around for seasons when Fielder was clearly ready, we would have all been saying the same things...

[Invader3K]

.272/.328/.429/.757 (Link)

 

I'm a huge Gamel supporter, and I don't hate McGehee. I hate how the Brewers have handled the development of Gamel the past two seasons.

I hate how Gamel got hurt during spring training 2010. Not sure how that's the Brewers fault, though.

[JohnBriggs12]

Can't figure how they can project 229 innings (14 more than his career high) for Wolf with an ERA of nearly 4.5. Is Roenicke a disciple of leaving guys in too long or are the projecting the Brewer bullpen to not be able to strand any of his runners?

[thebruce44]

.272/.328/.429/.757 (Link)

 

I'm a huge Gamel supporter, and I don't hate McGehee. I hate how the Brewers have handled the development of Gamel the past two seasons.

I hate how Gamel got hurt during spring training 2010. Not sure how that's the Brewers fault, though.

 

 

I hated him getting injured too, but I loved how he played the rest of the year in AAA.

[SenatorShriv]

Gut instincts are that Weeks and Cain are the most likely candidates to outperform those projections. Gamel seems to be the most likely to fall short (especially on the batting average.) I could see Gamel starting off really hot and outperforming those numbers, then cooling down in the second half as pitchers really get used to him and the season takes its tolls.