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Marco Estrada: smoke and mirrors or viable rotation guy?


adambr2

This guy is now very quietly sitting on a 3.85 ERA as a starter for us. Like Fiers, it's not a ridiculously small sample size anymore -- actually, if you include last year, Marco has over 200 innings for us now, almost all as a starter, with a cumulative ERA of 3.95. That's middle of the rotation quality at worst.

 

So, is he getting by on smoke and mirrors, or is he really a possible middle of the rotation guy going forward for us? If so, that would be huge. Nothing like finding multiple cheap solutions for your rotation internally to keep you from having to go out and overpaying for a middle of the rotation FA.

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Most of Marco's number are pretty good. Best K/9 of the starters, second to Fiers in WHIP. Pretty good K/BB. When he keeps the ball in the park he's pretty good. I actually like him better in teh 4/5 slot than I do coming out of the pen. I've always felt he didn't get enough credit for the starts he delivered while the team waited for ZG to heal up at the start of last season.
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Marco has great peripherals this year - except for HRs. He has given up 17 in 107 innings. But the good news is that he's gotten much better as the season has progressed. In his first 50 innings of 2012, he gave up 11 dingers. Since then he's only given up 6 HR.

 

He's looking like a solid guy for the rotation next year. Lets hope he keeps building on his success.

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I had never believed in Estrada as a starter, always waiting for the wheels to fall off. However, he's making a believer out of me with how he's held up over pretty much the entire course of the season. I think he would definitely be good in the rotation next year as the 4 or 5.
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He has made two thirds of his career starts this year -- 18 out of 27. I can't find a starting / relieving breakdown for him, but my rough memory is that he's been better as a starter even before this season.

 

His peripherals, as people have said, are outstanding, with even the HRs slowing down. He's certainly a strong 4 right now, and if he can go a little deeper into games, he'll be a very viable 3. Given that this is his first year as a regular rotation guy, I would think he has at least a reasonable chance to improve. We're very fortunate to have him.

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Estrada will almost certainly be a starter in next year's rotation, won't he? In 240 career innings in the majors, he has averaged better than 9 strikeouts per nine innings pitched, he's put up a sub-4 ERA over the past two seasons (~200 IP) combined, and Zips projects him as a 4.25 ERA guy. He's absolutely proven himself to be a viable rotation guy.

 

It's hard for me to be too optimistic about Rogers because he struggled in AAA this season with his control, but he did a great job in 40 innings in Milwaukee this season. I think he deserves a chance as the fifth man in the rotation next season. Gallardo-Fiers-FA-Estrada-Rogers could be a pretty solid rotation.

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Could really depend on what Thornburg and Peralta do in their starts and in spring training.

 

What if Peralta and Thorny pitch as well or better than Fiers/Rogers? Next year could be:

 

Gallardo

Fiers

Rogers

Thornburg

Peralta

Estrada(6th, Long relief)

"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
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Could really depend on what Thornburg and Peralta do in their starts and in spring training.

 

What if Peralta and Thorny pitch as well or better than Fiers/Rogers? Next year could be:

 

Gallardo

Fiers

Rogers

Thornburg

Peralta

Estrada(6th, Long relief)

 

I would be very disappointed if Thornburg and Peralta make the rotation over Estrada. Estrada has pretty clearly shown he's one of the 5 best starters. Tyler and Willy will get a few starts this year, what they do in those starts and in spring training is almost irrelevant compared to what Estrada has done the last two years.

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He is the new Dave Bush. Pitches 6 innings a game, 5 of those Cy Young, 1 arsonist. He is what he is, but he is a very good 4-5 guy, as long as he is cheap.

 

 

I'm not saying this might not be the future results but the results so far are nothing at like Bush. Bush was a guy who was a completely slave to his BABIP because of pedestrian K/9, a low BB/9 and a high ISO against. Estrada isn't really all that much like this other than the higher than normal ISO which does make him a bit extra susceptible to the hard hit ball. Estrada has established an elite K/9 in the majors and shouldn't be considered a fringe type from his results so far at least.

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I would be very disappointed if Thornburg and Peralta make the rotation over Estrada. Estrada has pretty clearly shown he's one of the 5 best starters. Tyler and Willy will get a few starts this year, what they do in those starts and in spring training is almost irrelevant compared to what Estrada has done the last two years.

 

You'd be disappointed that we developed 2 big arms who progressed enough to be in the MLB rotation? Why?

 

Estrada will be 29 next season and if he gets out pitched by younger and more talented players what exactly is the problem? Isn't the name of the game to put the best 5 starting pitchers out there regardless of age or experience?

 

I for one would be thrilled if we had entirely homegrown rotation next season is it would mean that the prospects stayed healthy and took major steps forward over the winter. We've never had 3 homegrown pitchers in the rotation in the modern era, much less all 5, that would be quite the accomplishment it's own right.

 

My opinion has nothing to do with how well Marco performed the last 2 seasons as a starter, Estrada is a fine starting pitcher, but all he's earned is a chance to be on the team next season. If he beats out the much younger pitchers then absolutely put him in the rotation, but if those other guys ascend Estrada can still have a role with the team out of the bullpen. I'd rather let things play out next spring than try to say today who should be in next year's rotation.

"You can discover more about a person in an hour of play than in a year of conversation."

- Plato

"Wise men talk because they have something to say; fools, because they have to say something."

- Plato

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I would be very disappointed if Thornburg and Peralta make the rotation over Estrada. Estrada has pretty clearly shown he's one of the 5 best starters. Tyler and Willy will get a few starts this year, what they do in those starts and in spring training is almost irrelevant compared to what Estrada has done the last two years.

 

You'd be disappointed that we developed 2 big arms who progressed enough to be in the MLB rotation? Why?

 

Estrada will be 29 next season and if he gets out pitched by younger and more talented players what exactly is the problem? Isn't the name of the game to put the best 5 starting pitchers out there regardless of age or experience?

 

I for one would be thrilled if we had entirely homegrown rotation next season is it would mean that the prospects stayed healthy and took major steps forward over the winter. We've never had 3 homegrown pitchers in the rotation in the modern era, much less all 5, that would be quite the accomplishment it's own right.

 

My opinion has nothing to do with how well Marco performed the last 2 seasons as a starter, Estrada is a fine starting pitcher, but all he's earned is a chance to be on the team next season. If he beats out the much younger pitchers then absolutely put him in the rotation, but if those other guys ascend Estrada can still have a role with the team out of the bullpen. I'd rather let things play out next spring than try to say today who should be in next year's rotation.

 

My problem would be that the decision would be based off of a few meaningless September starts and useless spring innings. Estrada has earned a spot.

 

I hope Willy and Tyler succeed but a lot of posters here need to stop with this mentality that unless a player was developed in our system he's not that good. This has been a big problem I've seen with Estrada. Any time someone suggests he could be a part of the rotation of the future some posters dismiss him over Thornburg or Peralta. I don't get it. He's a guy who's youngish, but more importantly cost controlled and EFFECTIVE. Maybe something will change over the offseason but Thornburg isn't ready and Peralta kinda tanked it in AAA

 

You said it best yourself. The goal is to put the five best pitchers in the rotation, regardless of age or experience. The also means starting Estrada over Thornburg and Peralta, even if he's not homegrown.

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