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Braves sign B.J. Upton


Patrick425

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Upton in 2012 .246/.298/.454 28 HR 78 RBI 31 SB. And that's $15M/yr. Yikes. By comparison, here's Gomez in 2012 .260/.305/.463 19 HR 51 RBI 37 SB. Gomez will get a nice pay day next offseason if he can even come close to duplicating those numbers. This is definitely some motivation for him, that's for sure.
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Not a good deal for sure but certainly better than say the Ethier deal. Upton is a 3 to 4 win player and could plausibly have upside. He actually does deserve a pretty hefty contract.

 

According to fangraphs, Upton had a WAR of 3.3 in 2012. Gomez had a WAR of 3.5. Again, Gomez is probably smiling ear-to-ear right now. He's gonna be highly motivated to duplicate or improve upon his 2012 season. If that makes him close to a $15M/yr player then yikes. Obviously there is the sustainability factor though. Upton has been putting up those numbers for a longer period of time. Although CFs are in very high demand these days too, so there's that.

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Gomez is not going to get $15M/year.

 

Part of this contract was B.J. Upton's lingering reputation from his excellent seasons in 2007-08 and teams still buying in to his elite potential. He's also been more consistent relative to Gomez.

 

Andres Torres had a 6.9 fWAR season a couple years ago with a similar skillset to Gomez/Upton, and now he was just non-tendered by the Mets. Statistical performance and large contracts do not necessarily correlate.

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Most of the board thought we overpaid for Ramirez [smile]

 

These contracts are going to get bigger and bigger until enough owners mutiny amongst themselves.

 

I don't think most of the board thought we overpaid at the time. But the way his contract was structured with a very cheap first year and a very expensive last year, I think quite a few would have been okay with shipping him to the Dodgers or whoever, as we would have "milked" quite a bit of his value.

 

Why would the owners mutiny? It is obvious enough owners have huge revenue coming in and can afford to escalate salaries at this rate. The owners that can't, will have to be diligent to move their players for pre-arby guys before they lose them in free agency.

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According to fangraphs, Upton had a WAR of 3.3 in 2012. Gomez had a WAR of 3.5.
WAR is one of those stats you want multiple seasons before you buy into it though. Gomez has to prove he can keep producing like he did last year. I'm also always a bit leery about heavy defensive/positional WAR which is a knock on both players. I don't think this is a good deal but it isn't just awful either. It is more in the realm of an overpay with not much upside and a good bit of risk.
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Why would the owners mutiny? It is obvious enough owners have huge revenue coming in and can afford to escalate salaries at this rate. The owners that can't, will have to be diligent to move their players for pre-arby guys before they lose them in free agency.

 

So that's the endless cycle? Draft a good prospect. Keep him in the minors for 2 or 3 years. Hopefully get 3 to 5 productive MLB years out of him then trade him to a bigger market/payroll team just before he becomes "unaffordable". Basically the small/mid market teams become farm teams for the select few large market teams.

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So that's the endless cycle? Draft a good prospect. Keep him in the minors for 2 or 3 years. Hopefully get 3 to 5 productive MLB years out of him then trade him to a bigger market/payroll team just before he becomes "unaffordable". Basically the small/mid market teams become farm teams for the select few large market teams.

 

Yes. That's way it's been going for quite a few years and will continue to go that way. For every Ryan Braun that takes a discount early in his career there are like 10 Prince Fielders who will squeeze every dollar possible out of their club until free agency and then go somewhere else or be traded.

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So that's the endless cycle? Draft a good prospect. Keep him in the minors for 2 or 3 years. Hopefully get 3 to 5 productive MLB years out of him then trade him to a bigger market/payroll team just before he becomes "unaffordable". Basically the small/mid market teams become farm teams for the select few large market teams.

 

Yes. That's way it's been going for quite a few years and will continue to go that way. For every Ryan Braun that takes a discount early in his career there are like 10 Prince Fielders who will squeeze every dollar possible out of their club until free agency and then go somewhere else or be traded.

 

 

I actually think it's trending directly opposite of that. You're seeing way more players lock themselves into guaranteed money and forgoing 1-2 years of free agency.

 

Cost certainty is becoming a big deal for a lot of franchises.

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Gomez is not going to get $15M/year.

 

Part of this contract was B.J. Upton's lingering reputation from his excellent seasons in 2007-08 and teams still buying in to his elite potential. He's also been more consistent relative to Gomez.

 

Andres Torres had a 6.9 fWAR season a couple years ago with a similar skillset to Gomez/Upton, and now he was just non-tendered by the Mets. Statistical performance and large contracts do not necessarily correlate.

 

I'm not saying Gomez is going to get $15M/yr. The point is that if he has another season similar or better than his 2012, that his price will be much higher than people think it'll be. Obviously, he could end up flopping next season. For the sake of the team, I hope that doesn't happen, but you never know. He could also play his way into a pretty big contract.

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Gomez is not going to get $15M/year.

 

Part of this contract was B.J. Upton's lingering reputation from his excellent seasons in 2007-08 and teams still buying in to his elite potential. He's also been more consistent relative to Gomez.

 

Andres Torres had a 6.9 fWAR season a couple years ago with a similar skillset to Gomez/Upton, and now he was just non-tendered by the Mets. Statistical performance and large contracts do not necessarily correlate.

 

I'm not saying Gomez is going to get $15M/yr. The point is that if he has another season similar or better than his 2012, that his price will be much higher than people think it'll be. Obviously, he could end up flopping next season. For the sake of the team, I hope that doesn't happen, but you never know. He could also play his way into a pretty big contract.

 

If he has the same year in 2013 as he did in 2012, I could see him getting 4/40 or something like that.

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