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Edwin Jackson with Cubs: 4/52 (edit: close on terms)


wisniewski

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And I thought the Cubs were done with giving away awful contracts... No way I would have gone more than 2/16 for Jackson. Simply floored. I would say our young arms are better than anything left on the FA market. (would have liked Greinke or Haren)

 

If we can't trade for a cost controlled arm (don't really want to give up the future), I say we stand pat.

 

Good job Doug on not taking the bite on Dumpster or Jackson

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If Cubs fans didn't have bad contracts to complain about, then what would they have to talk about?

 

I'm certainly glad Melvin didn't sign this deal.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

 

~Bill Walsh

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Not sure why this is a bad contract. The cost of pitching is only going to go up in the future and for 4 years of a younger, above average pitcher this deal seems good. When you then factor in they have a payroll where you can take some gambles I think it's a really good deal.

This is essentially my take on this contract. And if the Cubs decide to flip him at any point, with the way salaries have escalated, $13M AAV over two or three seasons might even be really good value for a #3/4 type still on the right side of 30. I don't see much downside to this deal for the Cubs.

 

It's crazy to think that Greinke was valued as being worth roughly $10M/season more than Jackson, and nearly $100M in total money guaranteed. 3.63 ERA for Greinke the past two seasons, 3.91 for Jackson. I don't in any way prefer Jackson to Greinke, aside from in a financial sense of course. Just crazy to me that there's that big of a monetary difference.

Stearns Brewing Co.: Sustainability from farm to plate
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Not sure why this is a bad contract. The cost of pitching is only going to go up in the future and for 4 years of a younger, above average pitcher this deal seems good. When you then factor in they have a payroll where you can take some gambles I think it's a really good deal.

This is essentially my take on this contract. And if the Cubs decide to flip him at any point, with the way salaries have escalated, $13M AAV over two or three seasons might even be really good value for a #3/4 type still on the right side of 30. I don't see much downside to this deal for the Cubs.

 

It's crazy to think that Greinke was valued as being worth roughly $10M/season more than Jackson, and nearly $100M in total money guaranteed. 3.63 ERA for Greinke the past two seasons, 3.91 for Jackson. I don't in any way prefer Jackson to Greinke, aside from in a financial sense of course. Just crazy to me that there's that big of a monetary difference.

 

While it may be apples to oranges given the hometown discount he gave the Brewers, it also makes me think about Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder contracts.

 

Through 2020:

Braun: 8 years $121.5 million ($15.19 AAV)

Fielder: 8 years $191 million ($23.88 AAV)

 

Now think about who you would rather have until they are 37 (Braun) or 36 (Fielder). Wow.

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Beyond the hometown discount, the first few seasons (including '13) in Braun's deal cover pre-arb. & arb. seasons, so it's even more apples to oranges. But this comparison, too, underscores just how crazy the money can be in FA.

 

Also, if Braun took the Fielder route, 2013 would be his last season as a Brewer.

Stearns Brewing Co.: Sustainability from farm to plate
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if the Cubs are going to spend almost $20 million on Jackson and Villenueva that can't be all bad for the Brew

 

Jackson is a solid #2 pitcher. Not sure how this is good for the Brewers. Facing Jackson instead of Chris Volstad 4 times a year doesn't help the Brewers.

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if the Cubs are going to spend almost $20 million on Jackson and Villenueva that can't be all bad for the Brew

 

Jackson is a solid #2 pitcher. Not sure how this is good for the Brewers. Facing Jackson instead of Chris Volstad 4 times a year doesn't help the Brewers.

 

 

#2, good one, lol

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It's crazy to think that Greinke was valued as being worth roughly $10M/season more than Jackson, and nearly $100M in total money guaranteed. 3.63 ERA for Greinke the past two seasons, 3.91 for Jackson. I don't in any way prefer Jackson to Greinke, aside from in a financial sense of course. Just crazy to me that there's that big of a monetary difference.

 

Sure if you ignore the fact Greinke pitched with a bad defense in a hitters park in a hitters division and Jackson pitched in a pitchers park with one year having a really good defense behind him and the other having an average one or the fact that Greinke goes deeper into games. I am not a fan of pitching WAR at all but the 2.5 WAR difference over the past 2 seasons speaks volumes to me especially when you consider Greinke was hurt for part of one year.

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If Edwin Jackson is a team's #2 pitcher, they're not going to the playoffs. To me this signing fits in with other free agent pitching deals the Cubs made last year or this offseason. They signed Maholm and flipped him for prospects at the trade deadline last season, and I can see them doing something similar with both Baker and Villenueva. Jackson's still young enough for the Cubs to hold onto him for the length of his deal, where he could contribute to a staff on their next contending team (probably a few seasons away assuming some of their young talent develops fast in the minors). Or, he'd be a good trade chip for a deadline deal in 2014.
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Sure if you ignore the fact Greinke pitched with a bad defense in a hitters park in a hitters division and Jackson pitched in a pitchers park with one year having a really good defense behind him and the other having an average one or the fact that Greinke goes deeper into games. I am not a fan of pitching WAR at all but the 2.5 WAR difference over the past 2 seasons speaks volumes to me especially when you consider Greinke was hurt for part of one year.

So are you of the opinion that Greinke is worth over $10M more per season? I realize it's not as simple as one stat telling the entire picture, but the point of my post was about the huge disparity in pay. Heck, nearly half of ZG's innings last season came in one of the best pitchers' parks in MLB.

 

I'd agree on factoring in Greinke's understandably slow start to the '11 regular season after the rib injury, driving up his ERA... but even then I'm not sure I'd want to pay him nearly double Jackson's AAV.

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So are you of the opinion that Greinke is worth over $10M more per season? I realize it's not as simple as one stat telling the entire picture, but the point of my post was about the huge disparity in pay. Heck, nearly half of ZG's innings last season came in one of the best pitchers' parks in MLB.

 

Yeah I think he is worth that much more. Part of it is the increase in value of wins as you get higher in WAR, part is because I don't really believe in EJ, part is because I think circumstance has really made Greinke look worse than he has pitched. I think if you talk true talent I think Greinke is a low to mid 3 ERA pitcher and Jackson is a high 3 to low 4 pitcher. So for my money there is a 0.50 ERA difference in value here and as you approach the elite end of the spectrum the price tag just goes through the roof.

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So are you of the opinion that Greinke is worth over $10M more per season? I realize it's not as simple as one stat telling the entire picture, but the point of my post was about the huge disparity in pay. Heck, nearly half of ZG's innings last season came in one of the best pitchers' parks in MLB.

 

Yeah I think he is worth that much more. Part of it is the increase in value of wins as you get higher in WAR, part is because I don't really believe in EJ, part is because I think circumstance has really made Greinke look worse than he has pitched. I think if you talk true talent I think Greinke is a low to mid 3 ERA pitcher and Jackson is a high 3 to low 4 pitcher. So for my money there is a 0.50 ERA difference in value here and as you approach the elite end of the spectrum the price tag just goes through the roof.

I definitely understand that the talent is much more a bell curve than line in MLB, and we honestly don't really disagree at all on true talent levels of Greinke & Jackson. I just don't know that if I were a GM, I'd want to pay double (or triple) for Greinke.

 

I also realize the upgrade of Greinke is worth a lot more to a contending team (LAA) than a non-contender (CHC)... and $150M for LAA isn't exactly the same as $150M for MIL. But still. I guess call me sticker-shocked.

Stearns Brewing Co.: Sustainability from farm to plate
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There's gotta be a reason the Nationals didn't even make a qualifying offer to Jackson... makes ya think. If they don't even want him back for 1 year, 13 mil, signing him for 52 mil sure seems risky.

 

Most think it was a handshake deal when they signed him for only one year.

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I just don't know that if I were a GM, I'd want to pay double (or triple) for Greinke.

 

All things being equal, I agree with you. However, all things are not equal. When you have seemingly unlimited resources, you pay up for the best. Billionaires don't drive Honda's because they're the best value for the dollar. If all teams had the same payroll or if big money teams could sign as many players as they'd like, there would not be such a difference in pay between the elite and the next lower tiers. Since some teams have much more money than others, but all teams have equal number of players, the elite will get mammoth deals from big money teams.

 

Of course, the Cubs are in the big money category, but they're still reeling from past management's failed "window" strategy trying to win the World Series several years ago. There's no reason for them to pay big now, but once they're done rebuilding their system, they'll be "big market."

 

As to Jackson, he is one of those guys with good stuff and flashes of brilliance that keep people believing he will reach his potential. However, you're about as likely to get a 3.75 ERA as you are a 4.5 ERA, and his WHIP will be anywhere in the 1.2-1.5 range. His K/BB is only 1.94, he strikes out around 6.8 / game, while walking 3.5. If he could harness everything, he could be a solid #2. However, he's 29 with nine years of MLB experience, so at some point you start to believe that he is what he is... a good but erratic arm who could pitch like a #2 or a #5.

 

Over the course of his contract, I wouldn't be surprised to see an ERA a little over 4 with a WHIP around 1.3. I may be being generous, as his career ERA is 4.40, and his three-year avg is 4.10, including 2011 where he posted a 3.79 ERA with a 1.44 WHIP (looks somewhat lucky). For a team with some extra money to throw around while the team struggles while waiting for prospects to mature, I guess it's not terrible, but I sure wouldn't want the Brewers to have signed this deal.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

 

~Bill Walsh

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