The Investment Thread

[OldHeidelberg]

3 hours ago, homer said:

Can we get below 90? 

Probably not today but I imagine it is likely in the next week as there is more tariff retaliation. I have been trying to buy the dips for a couple of months but like BrewerFan said now it's probably not worth trying to guess where the bottom is. I am the guy who posted a couple of months ago when it was in the $120's that it was at a good buying point pre-earnings report 😡  

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, OldHeidelberg said:

Probably not today but I imagine it is likely in the next week as there is more tariff retaliation. I have been trying to buy the dips for a couple of months but like BrewerFan said now it's probably not worth trying to guess where the bottom is. I am the guy who posted a couple of months ago when it was in the $120's that it was at a good buying point pre-earnings report 😡  

Well...you don't anticipate a President coming in, taking over a bull market and then seeing the markets crash by an entirely self inflicted move! 

So 120 a couple months ago...yeah, that was probably a good price!

I do think they're close to the bottom and I HAVE to believe Trump is actually having his team talking behind the scenes so he can save face and they can claim victory on some trade deals...but I don't know. 

I'm still holding...but it's like watching the odometer flip. You always go from ATHs. I was up X amount and now...there's...however much.

 

BRK.B is the only stock I'm currently buying. It won't have the highest or craziest returns, but it's not going to have the same downside risk either. 

[wallus]

17 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

It was just a footnote. 

Nobody really cares about tariffs. 

Now when the Fed Cuts another 25 basis points, THAT is what really matters. 

Not 54% tariffs on China or...10% tariffs on an UNINHABBITED ISLAND. And when I say uninhabited Island, I mean no humans live there. Penguins do live there. 

 

Every Economist in 1929 warned the US what would happen if they implemented Smoot-Hawley and every Republican since then, every FREE TRADE capitalist have pointed out how damaging tariffs were. 

 

All the same, #47 told Hoover...hold my Beer;

He's merely talking about a footnote though. 

I see what you did there 

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, wallus said:

I see what you did there 

Merely pointing out how inconsequential tariffs are!

 

Ironically, I BELIEVE that was actually Reagan putting tariffs on semiconductors for a short period while he worked out a trade deal with Japan(ironically, now it's arguably the most important industry at the moment).

But this is how trade is supposed to work. TARGETED tariffs to negotiate trade deals. 

Also...Harley. Reagan put tariffs on motorcycles with the understanding they had a window to build competitive bikes. And they did. Started at 45% and then went to 0 after 5 years. 

 

There was one about Krugman talking about this being the worst economic policy in 95 years and potentially being much worse than a prior tariff passed by the house just 5-6 months before the crash as we live in a much larger, more global economy now, but...I'm sure people can find other opinions if they like. 

 

[wallus]

14 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

Merely pointing out how inconsequential tariffs are!

 

Ironically, I BELIEVE that was actually Reagan putting tariffs on semiconductors for a short period while he worked out a trade deal with Japan(ironically, now it's arguably the most important industry at the moment).

But this is how trade is supposed to work. TARGETED tariffs to negotiate trade deals. 

Also...Harley. Reagan put tariffs on motorcycles with the understanding they had a window to build competitive bikes. And they did. Started at 45% and then went to 0 after 5 years. 

 

There was one about Krugman talking about this being the worst economic policy in 95 years and potentially being much worse than a prior tariff passed by the house just 5-6 months before the crash as we live in a much larger, more global economy now, but...I'm sure people can find other opinions if they like. 

 

We had to tariff those penguins though, they are screwing America!

[BrewerFan]

4 minutes ago, wallus said:

We had to tariff those penguins though, they are screwing America!

You don't think they had it coming?

[Fear The Chorizo]

This is a great big game of chicken that won't last very long, and it's one a whole bunch of other countries hope the US caves first to return back to the "status quo" of what the tariffs on US exports were without the US raising tariffs on imports.  There's a difference between what Wall Street and Main Street needs to feel like the economy is working for them, and this approach is the first thing in decades that actually puts Main Street's longterm interests ahead of the financial markets - even if it is heavy handed and poorly thought out in places.  It's why private sector unions are in favor of this.

Also, knowing that roughly $10T (!!!) of the existing national debt has to get refinanced this year, with almost $7T of that amount needing to be refinanced by early this summer, starts making an alterior motive for this kind of heavy handed tariff bluster in the short term pretty obvious.  It's forcing a big shift out of capital and into treasuries that otherwise wouldn't have happened.  From that, T-Yields have dropped 30 basis points the last couple days - the lower that yield is, the friendlier gov't debt refinancing costs are longterm.  With interest rates still elevated over what they've been during the last 20 or so years (thanks Fed for a decade+ of ~zero interest to print all this money!) that most of the current national debt has been accumulated through due to the US government opting to continually spend way more than it makes, it feels like an intentional effort to drive them down a bit.

 

The truth is the global economy needs the US much more than the US needs the rest of the global economy, and the global economy is going to have to at least make some concessions with their own tariff policies to avoid their own economic depressions while the US works through a recession.  

 

Of course, the status quo of increased deficits and debt accumulation would be less volatile over the next decade or two than what appears to be the current "plan"....but that approach also eventually reaches a point where the whole system collapses anyways.  Leaving things as they are gets the US to a point in about 20 years before a debt default that makes the great depression look like a hiccup across the globe - that's roughly my retirement timeline, so at this point I'm open to any sort of shift in strategy. 

 

My gut says this back and forth will continue over the next couple months, resulting in some minor foreign tariff reductions on US goods while many of these recently announced "bad actor" tariffs set way over the 10% baseline get knocked back down - then we get a bunch of "we made a great deal" announcements just as a chunk of this national debt is quietly refinanced at a lower interest rate before money floods back into the markets.

[BrewerFan]

9 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

This is a great big game of chicken that won't last very long, and it's one a whole bunch of other countries hope the US caves first to return back to the "status quo" of what the tariffs on US exports were without the US raising tariffs on imports.  There's a difference between what Wall Street and Main Street needs to feel like the economy is working for them, and this approach is the first thing in decades that actually puts Main Street's longterm interests ahead of the financial markets - even if it is heavy handed and poorly thought out in places.  It's why private sector unions are in favor of this.

Also, knowing that roughly $10T (!!!) of the existing national debt has to get refinanced this year, with almost $7T of that amount needing to be refinanced by early this summer, starts making an alterior motive for this kind of heavy handed tariff bluster in the short term pretty obvious.  It's forcing a big shift out of capital and into treasuries that otherwise wouldn't have happened.  From that, T-Yields have dropped 30 basis points the last couple days - the lower that yield is, the friendlier gov't debt refinancing costs are longterm.  With interest rates still elevated over what they've been during the last 20 or so years (thanks Fed for a decade+ of ~zero interest to print all this money!) that most of the current national debt has been accumulated through due to the US government opting to continually spend way more than it makes, it feels like an intentional effort to drive them down a bit.

 

The truth is the global economy needs the US much more than the US needs the rest of the global economy, and the global economy is going to have to at least make some concessions with their own tariff policies to avoid their own economic depressions while the US works through a recession.  

 

Of course, the status quo of increased deficits and debt accumulation would be less volatile over the next decade or two than what appears to be the current "plan"....but that approach also eventually reaches a point where the whole system collapses anyways.  Leaving things as they are gets the US to a point in about 20 years before a debt default that makes the great depression look like a hiccup across the globe - that's roughly my retirement timeline, so at this point I'm open to any sort of shift in strategy. 

 

My gut says this back and forth will continue over the next couple months, resulting in some minor foreign tariff reductions on US goods while many of these recently announced "bad actor" tariffs set way over the 10% baseline get knocked back down - then we get a bunch of "we made a great deal" announcements just as a chunk of this national debt is quietly refinanced at a lower interest rate before money floods back into the markets.

Hey, if the whole point is to just lower the 10 year, then  fine, but you can only lie so many times as President and make up these figures that other countries have for tariffs on us.

 

The US was at 1.5%, China was at 2.2%. 

That doesn't seem like it justifies a 54% increase. 

 

Also, I wouldn't be so sure that we're going to win this "big game of chicken," with the global economy when Japan has an alliance with...CHINA and South Korea. 

Jesus. Trump MAY actually be on pace to get the Palestinians and Israelis to find peace if he can get those three nations to. 

 

They're not bowing down and Trump says that's not the plan. There is no negotiating and this is what we're doing now. Tariffs 40-50% higher(until of course the actual reciprocal tariffs start coming) and they completely rebalance global trade so that it's not as reliant on the United States. 

[wallus]

It's always interesting when you read a comment that is darn near word for word what you see on a certain Entertainment News channel.

[LouisEly]

On 4/4/2025 at 7:15 PM, wallus said:

We had to tariff those penguins though, they are screwing America!

Since the 80's!  We showed them!

[yourout]

Better hang on to your hats tomorrow.

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, yourout said:

Better hang on to your hats tomorrow.

When someone tells you who they are(or what they plan on doing)...believe them.

 

[homer]

My investment advice: 

1) wait for tariff announcement 

2) buy as market drops

3) wait 48 - 72 hours for the inevitable promise that tariffs will be lifted

4) sell as market goes up

5) profit

edit

6) wait to see if the promise that tariffs will be lifted is real or not

7) consider the rich tapestry that is life

8) stare into the void

9) determine that there is no meaning to anything. There is only this moment in time.

10) sell all earthly possessions. Move to Bhutan and become a Buddhist monk.

[young guns]

13 hours ago, yourout said:

Better hang on to your hats tomorrow.

[yourout]

One thing not getting much press is the fact that China and Japan are selling US bonds at a rather rapid rate.

This could have a rather massive impact on the economy that no one's going to see coming outside of economist.

[LouisEly]

Yep, and that's one of the components keeping the 10-year rate artificially high.  And the 10-year rate affects mortgage rates.

[wallus]

I am officially getting worried about this whole thing.....

[owbc]

11 hours ago, wallus said:

I am officially getting worried about this whole thing.....

Well a liquidity crisis would certainly be a fun add to this mess. I almost snagged a house this weekend too, I expected 10-15 offers and it only got 4 (likely due to economic fears), but unfortunately one of them beat us. Now I might have to pivot and wait for a recession deal. 

Up to this point the whole thing was easily predictable. What comes next is more difficult to anticipate. The expectation of the administration was that other countries would capitulate but instead they are retaliating and will likely continue to come up with smart and creative ways to do so. 

So how does the executive branch respond to that? Double down? Back off? Does Congress get involved? Lots of unknowns going forward. I see one scenario where we end up backing off and we get out of this before any of the serious damage is permanent. If we double or triple down then we could be in big trouble. 

[LouisEly]

19 minutes ago, owbc said:

So how does the executive branch respond to that? Double down? Back off?

Back off appears to be the answer... for today

[homer]

On 4/7/2025 at 9:44 AM, homer said:

My investment advice: 

1) wait for tariff announcement 

2) buy as market drops

3) wait 48 - 72 hours for the inevitable promise that tariffs will be lifted

4) sell as market goes up

5) profit

edit

6) wait to see if the promise that tariffs will be lifted is real or not

7) consider the rich tapestry that is life

8) stare into the void

9) determine that there is no meaning to anything. There is only this moment in time.

10) sell all earthly possessions. Move to Bhutan and become a Buddhist monk.

Alright well....stick to 1 - 5 for now I guess.

[yourout]

It's almost comical how bad the market manipulation is and I have to believe there's some crypto accounts that are inflating at breakneck speed.

[LouisEly]

Kelly Evans on CNBC just made an interesting point about how the US and Mexico could become the next US and China, with manufacturing moving from China to Mexico because of tariffs and to eliminate the time and cost of trans-oceanic transportation.  Manufacturing costs in Mexico can be higher due to higher transportation costs (time and money) coming from China and still allow tariffs on imports from China.

That being said, the main reason companies manufacture in China is so that they can easily sell in China.

[owbc]

What’s the opposite of “buying the dip?” “Selling the bump?” Because that’s what I was doing today. 

 

[BrewerFan]

4 hours ago, owbc said:

What’s the opposite of “buying the dip?” “Selling the bump?” Because that’s what I was doing today. 

 

Two stocks I was NOT buying was NVDA and AVGO. Just ...too much of my portfolio is somehow tied into that but...I couldn't help it. AVGO was in the 130s and they announced 10B in buybacks, NVDA is sitting there with 50B authorized and it was at 87 and I bought a few blocks.

Sold the NVDA at 105, was honestly planning on selling the AVGO when it hit 170 as it had yesterday...and as it's there, I see the news, 90 days and i's at 180-185 and I'll probably sell tomorrow as it was never meant to be an investment. 

NVDA did get the go ahead to sell the H20s. That's 16B in revenue that seemed to be off and they're ready to be shipped.

 

 

 

 

Also, I don't get it...why was the Dow down 2300 points, 1900 points, massive turnaround... we get a rate cut?

 

[wallus]

What % of your portfolio is international?