The Investment Thread

[OldHeidelberg]

On 2/24/2025 at 1:54 AM, BrewerFan said:

Markets bounce back tomorrow...I think.

NVDA and COST earnings are going to be big.

I think the prior will be good, better guidance, the later is...well, if you like options, I'm betting it's not a good reaction. PE of 60, low margins, susceptible to the tariffs.

All these rotations out of big tech, I think with the confidence index, a good NVDA earning...~41B, 10-12B on Blackwell(SMCI filing the 10-K by Tuesday Morning) and you'll see them carrying the markets again.

 

Not saying I feel real confident we're still in the throws of a bull market, but...I don't think we're entering a bear market just yet. I also think the market has priced in 2 cuts whereas I think 3 or at least a sooner one is possible if there's any weakening in the job market(which seems inevitable with the slowing growth).

NVDIA continues to drop this week, I am guessing there is some profit taking just in case there is a not so great earnings report. Might be a bargain right now if it takes off again after tomorrow.  

[nate82]

NVIDIA maybe in some trouble at least on the consumer side.  Their 5090 and 5080 consumer card are selling out but there may be some recalls coming for these cards.  Their card is basically melting the power connector and there also seems to be some missing rops in the 5090 and 5070 TI series of cards.

The melting of the power connector is the more serious issue as there is no fix for this at this time.  The problem stems from the power connector that NVIDIA chose for its new cards starting with the 4000 series.  The previous 4090 generation had this problem early on with third party connectors and user error.  This time around it is neither and it is the power connector itself that is failing.  Shouldn’t impact NVIDIA that much but will probably have an impact on the stock price at some point if they need to do a full recall.

[BrewerFan]

On 2/25/2025 at 10:12 AM, OldHeidelberg said:

NVDIA continues to drop this week, I am guessing there is some profit taking just in case there is a not so great earnings report. Might be a bargain right now if it takes off again after tomorrow.  

I think a lot of the pressure has been taken off NVDA to have these 10-15% beats. Especially this quarter. It'll be more about guidance with Blackwell. The tech sector has been getting hammered all week, SMCI didn't help waiting until 4 minutes before to file their 10-K. That was dragging NVDA down.

AGain~40-41B, 11B fom Blackwell and if the Margins stay closer to what management said vs expectations(~74 vs 71) then I think the strong demand for Blackwell could push it back near ATHs in the next week or two(and then probably back down).  I think the next couple quarters are going to be bigger catalysts. NVDA now makes up 70% of TSMs CoWoS. Up from 40 two years ago to 60% last year. And that is really the main thing holding NVDA back right now. Not being able to meet the demand...

 

 

I'm just just in awe of SMCI. I invested too heavily after ChatCCP came along...and then didn't sell at 66 or yesterday. They said nothing about the 10-K all day while they released these stupid tutorials...and then 4 minutes before the deadline. No release, 'the 10-K is on schedule,' just...letting people freak out about it.

I know SMCI has a great product and I know based on their revenue(and projected revenue) they're undervalued and could easily see 100+ in the next few months, but it also seems like they need some better leadership. I was also stupid to hold...but I'll take stupid and lucky on this one.

[wallus]

Yikes is all I'm gonna say....

[owbc]

On 3/4/2025 at 7:15 AM, wallus said:

Yikes is all I'm gonna say....

I moved about half of my retirement savings to cash positions at the end of January and I’m riding it out now. 

I know it goes against common investing wisdom but I think this is an exception where it is very easy to time a market pullback. Figuring out the bottom may be more difficult but I’m not worried about that yet, it might be a while since it seems like it’s going to be a slow slide but the general policy goals of the current admin and their consequences couldn’t be more obvious. 

[wallus]

3 minutes ago, owbc said:

I moved about half of my retirement savings to cash positions at the end of January and I’m riding it out now. 

I know it goes against common investing wisdom but I think this is an exception where it is very easy to time a market pullback. Figuring out the bottom may be more difficult but I’m not worried about that yet, it might be a while since it seems like it’s going to be a slow slide but the general policy goals of the current admin and their consequences couldn’t be more obvious. 

I am continuing my dollar cost averaging because I will won't attempt to time the market. I have a longer timeline so what the market is doing now isn't a super big deal one way or the other.

The stock market cratering is probably the only way for things to be adjusted here.

[owbc]

4 minutes ago, wallus said:

I am continuing my dollar cost averaging because I will won't attempt to time the market. I have a longer timeline so what the market is doing now isn't a super big deal one way or the other.

The stock market cratering is probably the only way for things to be adjusted here.

Yeah I kinda wish it would drop hard to force policy changes but instead they are just punting tariffs out and delaying federal job cuts, so we will just sit in a period of uncertainty where the market stagnates or slowly slides. 

[nate82]

I am waiting for some stocks to slip and start buying.  Namely ARM, NNE, NVDA, AMD, PLTR and IONQ.  I have few target amounts for them and if they go below it I will be really happy!

[Fear The Chorizo]

Trying to time the market based on politics is too risky for my investing stomach, regardless of party - if all it takes is one trade agreement announcement or actual concrete policy going into effect to restore enough certainty for an index to recoup a month of losses in one day (or lose a month of gains), it's too late to try and either take cash back out from under your mattress or grab a wheelbarrow and take it out of funds. More often than not, staying in the market and riding whatever happens out with continued investment winds up being the best option.

I think the bigger concern is banks trying to figure out how to get out from under massive commercial real estate losses that are continuing to mount without it leaking into the housing market.  Everything that's happening in D.C. right now is little more than reshuffling deck chairs with the markets compared to what would happen if banks start going under again.

All that being said, it's less than an ideal time to be less than a few years from retirement and wonder what to do to best protect and continue growing that nest egg.  That has been the case for several years not because market uncertainty, but persistently increasing prices on everything across the board.  However, as nate indicated even a slipping market is a good opportunity to make some money in the long run.

 

[homer]

On 3/6/2025 at 1:23 PM, nate82 said:

I am waiting for some stocks to slip and start buying.  Namely ARM, NNE, NVDA, AMD, PLTR and IONQ.  I have few target amounts for them and if they go below it I will be really happy!

If NVDA drops below 100 I'll buy some more

[GAME05]

We're a few months out from having to refinance $10T worth of debt for the next 10 years. It wouldn't surprise me if Trump kinda elbowed the market down the hill a little more to get a more favorable rate and later propped it back up again through more favorable interest rates and the money printer.

[homer]

58 minutes ago, GAME05 said:

We're a few months out from having to refinance $10T worth of debt for the next 10 years. It wouldn't surprise me if Trump kinda elbowed the market down the hill a little more to get a more favorable rate and later propped it back up again through more favorable interest rates and the money printer.

You mean the fed rate? I don't think they look at the stock market.

[nate82]

20 minutes ago, homer said:

You mean the fed rate? I don't think they look at the stock market.

They don’t and it isn’t really an economic indicator.  You could have a really bad quarter in the market but the economy is humming along like nothing happened.  The stock market is mostly speculative and it is a horrible indicator of anything other than the stock market is going up or down.

The stock market reacts to the fed it would be silly to base anything off of what is reacting to what you are doing.  Inflation is still an issue and the economy still looks like it is going to go into either stagflation or into a recession.  This is all on the fed and their slow reaction to inflation.  

[owbc]

3 hours ago, nate82 said:

They don’t and it isn’t really an economic indicator.  You could have a really bad quarter in the market but the economy is humming along like nothing happened.  The stock market is mostly speculative and it is a horrible indicator of anything other than the stock market is going up or down.

The stock market reacts to the fed it would be silly to base anything off of what is reacting to what you are doing.  Inflation is still an issue and the economy still looks like it is going to go into either stagflation or into a recession.  This is all on the fed and their slow reaction to inflation.  

Is this real life? You actually believe that? 
 

The Fed better quit with the tariffs! 

[nate82]

29 minutes ago, owbc said:

Is this real life? You actually believe that? 
 

The Fed better quit with the tariffs! 

Yes if the Fed reacted quicker we wouldn't be in the predicament that we are in right now.  The Fed's lack of a response to inflation is what got us here.  The tariffs are just a minor footnote.  The economy has been collapsing for awhile it is just everyone was ignoring it.  The Fed should have raised interest rates in 2019 but instead decided to double down along with the federal government spending like drunken sailors.  This has continued to this day.  The current administration hasn't even done anything to curb the spending.  Congress is basically just kicking the can again and just returning back to the same spending as last year.  Nothing has been done to help the economy.  The Fed hasn't done much and is too scared to either raise rates again or lower them.

[wallus]

25 minutes ago, nate82 said:

The tariffs are just a minor footnote.  

[nate82]

9 hours ago, wallus said:

Are taxes a major footnote in the economy or would you say monetary policy is the major footnote?

[BrewerFan]

On 3/6/2025 at 12:04 PM, owbc said:

I moved about half of my retirement savings to cash positions at the end of January and I’m riding it out now. 

I know it goes against common investing wisdom but I think this is an exception where it is very easy to time a market pullback. Figuring out the bottom may be more difficult but I’m not worried about that yet, it might be a while since it seems like it’s going to be a slow slide but the general policy goals of the current admin and their consequences couldn’t be more obvious. 

Yeah...I guess especially when you're telling people we might feel some "pain" for a couple years...I just never really thought he was indifferent to the markets and I thought they'd work something out with Canada, France.

 

I think the rest of the world is kinda done with us being the school yard bully. The Canadian tariffs are particularly stupid. It's NOT about the border. Everyone knows that, it's about the deficit surplus or deficits and our biggest are with Canada, Mexico and China...I believe. And if you take Energy out, we have a Surplus with Canada. So I don't understand going after them.

I don't understand going after the EU.

 

I don't understand the romanization of tariffs as a whole. Why you'd take an Economy that was growing and intentionally tank it. This would all make a MODICUM of sense to me if you were dedicated to paying off the debt, but...that's not going to happen. They might slightly lower the deficit, still adding to the debt and then you're going to have tax cuts that won't do anything for the debt.

 

But I guess if you took everyone at their word...this was obvious. I didn't do much but sell SMCI after the 10K. Bought Googl, META and AMZN yesterday, but...didn't have enough for more than 300-400 shares total.

So just gonna have to ride this out and hope history doesn't repeat itself.

[BrewerFan]

9 hours ago, wallus said:

It's...mind-blowing.

Just MAGICALLY and for absolutely no reason at all...the economy that was growing is now contracting, the market is crashing and tariffs are...just...ya know, a footnote.

Which is probably why we haven't learned our lessons about tariffs yet.

Those who haven't.... doomed to repeat it and all of that.

 

[wallus]

1 hour ago, nate82 said:

Are taxes a major footnote in the economy or would you say monetary policy is the major footnote?

I would say tariffs against two large trading partners are not a minor footnote....

[homer]

11 minutes ago, wallus said:

I would say tariffs against two large trading partners are not a minor footnote....

Yeah you can read the Goldman Sachs report on why they reduced their GDP forecast and they pretty much spell it out:

Quote

On Monday, Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius slashed his GDP forecast to 1.7% from 2.4% while simultaneously boosting his inflation outlook: "The reason for the downgrade is that our trade policy assumptions have become considerably more adverse."

 

[nate82]

43 minutes ago, wallus said:

I would say tariffs against two large trading partners are not a minor footnote....

Monetary policy is king in the economy everything else is a minor footnote.

[wallus]

13 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Monetary policy is king in the economy everything else is a minor footnote.

You gotta be on an island to say these tariffs are a minor footnote. I follow things quite closely, from both sides, and you are the only one ever saying it.

This is like one poster saying Braun can play third base

[nate82]

8 minutes ago, wallus said:

You gotta be on an island to say these tariffs are a minor footnote. I follow things quite closely, from both sides, and you are the only one ever saying it.

Tariffs and taxes which are what tariffs are just don’t impact the economy as much as people think they do.  Monetary policy is what impacts the economy more.  If the Fed raised rates right now what would happen to the economy?  Also ask yourself what would happen if the Fed lowered rates right now what would that do?

The tightening and loosening of the money supply has a far bigger impact on the economy than tariffs.

[owbc]

5 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Tariffs and taxes which are what tariffs are just don’t impact the economy as much as people think they do.  Monetary policy is what impacts the economy more.  If the Fed raised rates right now what would happen to the economy?  Also ask yourself what would happen if the Fed lowered rates right now what would that do?

The tightening and loosening of the money supply has a far bigger impact on the economy than tariffs.

The stock market would crash if the Fed lowered rates because it would indicate that the executive branch coerced them to do it. It would set off a panic for sure. 
 

The uncertainty is what’s killing the economy right now more than anything. If they set 25% tariffs and stuck with them the market would probably adapt and move on after a period of disruption. But instead it’s a new policy every day!