The Investment Thread

[Jimbo]

13 hours ago, TwinsBrewersWorldSeries said:

For the folks close to retirement, that could be really scary to have a good third of your portfolio evaporate overnight…

I’m a ways off from that, so not worried about a correction, but that really could hammer a lot of people.

I'm getting close to retirement and I say just get it over with.  I'm mentally prepared for it.

 

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

25 minutes ago, Jimbo said:

I'm getting close to retirement and I say just get it over with.  I'm mentally prepared for it.

 

Fair enough.  I have a couple colleagues that are close, still in relatively stable 70/30 stocks/bond mix, but between some cash savings, social security income, and plans to do some part time consulting,  both are in a position to hold Off 3-5 years on making any IRA withdrawals if the market tanks.

our financial advisor routinely tells us, that if we’re willing to cut back on spending (if needed), and have the ability to earn some part time income, we can weather just about anything in retirement.  The key of course is the “sequence of withdrawals” or whatever it’s called, that we should be rock solid so long as we can avoid taking a big distribution from our stocks portfolio in a market downturn.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

Interesting that the markets seem to be ignoring the escalation in the Middle East again.

Then again, so much hyperbole has been thrown out over the past 4-5 months, it might be tough to determine what is reality of not these days.

i will be curious to see what the inflation number is today. Guessing that the market is expecting mid 4s?

[Fear The Chorizo]

1 hour ago, TwinsBrewersWorldSeries said:

Interesting that the markets seem to be ignoring the escalation in the Middle East again.

Then again, so much hyperbole has been thrown out over the past 4-5 months, it might be tough to determine what is reality of not these days.

i will be curious to see what the inflation number is today. Guessing that the market is expecting mid 4s?

If they did they were way off...3.5% in June.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

38 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

If they did they were way off...3.5% in June.

3.5% is a big improvement, thought that seems to be driven (lower) primarily by gas prices.

hopefully the Middle East stuff can work itself out.  If gas prices return to a more normalized $2.50-$2.75 by fall, that would be a big boost to the economy and hopefully get inflation back below 3%

[Fear The Chorizo]

1 hour ago, TwinsBrewersWorldSeries said:

3.5% is a big improvement, thought that seems to be driven (lower) primarily by gas prices.

hopefully the Middle East stuff can work itself out.  If gas prices return to a more normalized $2.50-$2.75 by fall, that would be a big boost to the economy and hopefully get inflation back below 3%

Is that gas price hope based on your region, or the US on average?  If it's US on average it won't get that low because of how much blue states tax it, and the west coast currently has a self-inflicted supply mess on its hands regardless of what is going on in Hormuz.  Last time it was $2.50-$2.75 a gallon nationally for more than a hot second, we were in year 2 of the two weeks to stop the spread routine that cratered demand 5-6 years ago.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

1 hour ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Is that gas price hope based on your region, or the US on average?  If it's US on average it won't get that low because of how much blue states tax it, and the west coast currently has a self-inflicted supply mess on its hands regardless of what is going on in Hormuz.  Last time it was $2.50-$2.75 a gallon nationally for more than a hot second, we were in year 2 of the two weeks to stop the spread routine that cratered demand 5-6 years ago.

You make an excellent point.  I meant $2.50-$2.75 in Southeastern Wisconsin.  We were about that in mid February here.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

I read these week that market short selling is reaching all time highs (assuming I understood the article correctly)

sign of a correction coming, or just more wild speculation in a market that keeps making small moves up and down but that has been largely flat for quite some time?

[owbc]

5 hours ago, TwinsBrewersWorldSeries said:

I read these week that market short selling is reaching all time highs (assuming I understood the article correctly)

sign of a correction coming, or just more wild speculation in a market that keeps making small moves up and down but that has been largely flat for quite some time?

I’m getting irritated that I’m missing gains, I did buy some renewable energy ETFs and some Uranium the other day but mostly just to satisfy my boredom with being conservative and the expectation that in the 5-10 year window there will be massive growth in alt energy. I also picked up some ServiceNow ahead of earnings. Tempting to pick up some IBM also but haven’t done it. Feels like if there is an AI correction that any large caps that have been hurt by AI speculation have upside. 
 

On the Iran/oil situation there will surely be a hard TACO and new ceasefire just in time to get gas prices down for the midterms. 
 

Hard to see the AI crash/correction coming just yet. In the dot com era there were several of these periods of anxiousness followed by upticks before the real crash hit. And this time there isn’t a Greenspan asleep at the wheel, the government will pull every lever it has to hold it off. They will ban Chinese models if they have to. At least SPCX proves that the market has some rationality left. 

 

[nate82]

SPCX is a speculative investment.  In 20-30 years it could be one of the richest companies in the world if there is a leap in space technology.  Theoretically any mission to Mars will include SPCX.  Realistically a Mars mission is dependent on a base on the moon.  SPCX again would be involved in that.  Then you have asteroid mining which again yes you guessed it would involve SPCX.

This is all speculative for future revenue growth as of right now it is just putting satellites into space for SPCX.  

[owbc]

17 hours ago, nate82 said:

SPCX is a speculative investment.  In 20-30 years it could be one of the richest companies in the world if there is a leap in space technology.  Theoretically any mission to Mars will include SPCX.  Realistically a Mars mission is dependent on a base on the moon.  SPCX again would be involved in that.  Then you have asteroid mining which again yes you guessed it would involve SPCX.

This is all speculative for future revenue growth as of right now it is just putting satellites into space for SPCX.  

It’s priced like it is one of the richest companies in the world right now.

Meanwhile, looks like we’re in for a rough earnings cycle based on the market’s reaction to Google. And oil hit 100 again. Fun times!