Darvish

[KeithStone53151]

The trying to jack up the price is nice but in the end if the Cubs get Darvish, it just makes it that much tougher for us to win the division and get a playoff spot.

 

Maybe that's true, it also likely makes their spectacular fall from grace that much more devastating when it inevitably happens. And there's no guarantee the Cubs get him. I still think he winds up with the Dodgers or Seattle or another west coast team.

[Steve Drumwright]

If Darvish wasn't Option A, per HH, maybe something else of on the verge of happening. Cobb? Trade?

[adambr2]

I have no issue if the Cubs want to go get Darvish, and I hope they pay big.

 

Darvish is a nice #2 pitcher, and if he signs with Chicago it obviously hurts us for 2018.

 

Down the line, not so much. It's going to make it very tough for them to contend for the crop of FA pitchers coming up after next season, or pursue Harper or Machado. Right now they've got a few years but eventually they'll need to pony up in a massive way to keep Rizzo and Bryant around. They're on the hook for Heyward for a long, long time. I know they have a lot of money, but it isn't an endless supply.

 

Obviously would be disappointing for this year, but I still think we need to try to build something sustainable and not just focus on what we need to do to win the division this year.

[Steve Drumwright]

Cubs already @ $111M for 2019 -- before factoring in Bryant's arb/contract extension, which figures to start out at around $15M. So yeah, the piper is coming for the Cubs beginning in 2019.

[bill hAll Star]

I have no issue if the Cubs want to go get Darvish, and I hope they pay big.

 

Darvish is a nice #2 pitcher, and if he signs with Chicago it obviously hurts us for 2018.

 

Down the line, not so much. It's going to make it very tough for them to contend for the crop of FA pitchers coming up after next season, or pursue Harper or Machado. Right now they've got a few years but eventually they'll need to pony up in a massive way to keep Rizzo and Bryant around. They're on the hook for Heyward for a long, long time. I know they have a lot of money, but it isn't an endless supply.

 

Obviously would be disappointing for this year, but I still think we need to try to build something sustainable and not just focus on what we need to do to win the division this year.

 

Well, they could lose Rizzo and Bryant which would help us in...2022. Might even be smart to let Rizzo go.

 

I get the sentiment and I’m just being a bit facetious there...the Cubs really do have some warts showing in their long-term agenda, but it might be a long ways out before they aren’t at the very least a solid team.

[bill hAll Star]

Cubs already @ $111M for 2019 -- before factoring in Bryant's arb/contract extension, which figures to start out at around $15M. So yeah, the piper is coming for the Cubs beginning in 2019.

 

What if they’ve been planning to go over the tax threshold all along in 2019? They’ve been behind the pace of the other big market teams for a while and I feel like they could.

 

They might still be able to make a play at another big piece after Darvish next offseason. They’d have to win the bidding but I could see them being in it.

[TJseven7]

I'm ok with not getting Darvish because its been hard for me to get sold on the idea of 25 mil on a 30+ pitcher who hasn't been the freak he was since he passed his prime. I'd rather have gone after Grienke at his huge offer. I don't question what Darvish has done or how amazing he can be at times but 200 ip low 3 ace he hasn't been. I get very few are that but thats what I imagine for 25 mil per. I'd go 30 mil per for that. I don't love the inbetween. Its not a realistic option (wouldn't likely come here) but I'd easily go after machado for 30 mil at SS before I went after Darvish at 25. A solid deep rotation that can bat machado Huira (if he pans out) up the middle would be very hard to beat.

 

I just don't believe small market teams should put that much into a pitcher unless they are trying to keep or steal a sale kershaw plus a small number of etcs. Nelson Anderson Davies Chacin Woodruff (hopefully) or burnes ortiz are they types I feel we should aim for. Reasonable contracts on mid 3 to sub 4 era guys. Strong offense and pen. If you are on the cusp... deal for verlander gray Q darvish, but that big arm is a icing on the cake move... we got to focus on making the cake well.

[Steve Drumwright]

Cubs already @ $111M for 2019 -- before factoring in Bryant's arb/contract extension, which figures to start out at around $15M. So yeah, the piper is coming for the Cubs beginning in 2019.

 

What if they’ve been planning to go over the tax threshold all along in 2019? They’ve been behind the pace of the other big market teams for a while and I feel like they could.

 

They might still be able to make a play at another big piece after Darvish next offseason. They’d have to win the bidding but I could see them being in it.

 

I'm not saying the Cubs aren't planning on going over the threshold, I'm saying the price of doing business for them is going to be very expensive for them. Schwarber and Baez (plus a couple more) will be in the first year of arbitration, while Hendricks and Russell with be in second year of arb. Now, these pieces will be attractive to other teams if they decide to trade them, depending on needs that arise.

[bill hAll Star]

Cubs already @ $111M for 2019 -- before factoring in Bryant's arb/contract extension, which figures to start out at around $15M. So yeah, the piper is coming for the Cubs beginning in 2019.

 

What if they’ve been planning to go over the tax threshold all along in 2019? They’ve been behind the pace of the other big market teams for a while and I feel like they could.

 

They might still be able to make a play at another big piece after Darvish next offseason. They’d have to win the bidding but I could see them being in it.

 

I'm not saying the Cubs aren't planning on going over the threshold, I'm saying the price of doing business for them is going to be very expensive for them. Schwarber and Baez (plus a couple more) will be in the first year of arbitration, while Hendricks and Russell with be in second year of arb. Now, these pieces will be attractive to other teams if they decide to trade them, depending on needs that arise.

 

I get that, but they’ve spent so long not going over the threshold that let’s say they did go for Darvish this year and another FA next year: it would be expensive but they’d make it through it.

 

The day of reckoning is probably around 2021 regardless, but if they’re willing to spend that money, it may cost them $230 million given some tax was added for 2019, but then Lester is cheaper and Zobrist is gone and they’d probably be able to shuffle things around.

 

I agree, though, that it’s getting expensive. It’s very hard to avoid for them, but I feel like it’s also unlikely that Epstein goes into the next few offseasons without a plan with his owner so that they can spend something each offseason.

[Roderick]

The trying to jack up the price is nice but in the end if the Cubs get Darvish, it just makes it that much tougher for us to win the division and get a playoff spot.

 

For 2018. I think after that, you have to wait and see. I kind of assumed we would drive up the price of pitching for the Cubs and Cardinals this offseason.

[jerichoholicninja]

The trying to jack up the price is nice but in the end if the Cubs get Darvish, it just makes it that much tougher for us to win the division and get a playoff spot.

 

It also raises the price for every other FA agent pitcher and resigning our own guys.

[pacopete4]

The trying to jack up the price is nice but in the end if the Cubs get Darvish, it just makes it that much tougher for us to win the division and get a playoff spot.

 

It also raises the price for every other FA agent pitcher and resigning our own guys.

 

Yes. Good point. It just feels like we tell ourselves this so that it makes it feel better while other teams continuously improve their odds at being a playoff team.

[brewcrewdue80]

Cubs already @ $111M for 2019 -- before factoring in Bryant's arb/contract extension, which figures to start out at around $15M. So yeah, the piper is coming for the Cubs beginning in 2019.

 

Bryant's first Arb happened recently at a record 10.85mil. Considering that was after just a 1mil pre-arb I'd assume he closes in on 18mil for next season. The Cubs are already paying big for their studs.

 

With that said, if they signed Darvish, it really puts them over the top for the next 3 seasons. I'd expect 100-win projections and reality all 3 years. You're moving a Dominant Darvish to the NL where his stats improve on K/BB rate. His career numbers are outstanding. His splits in a way explain his poor post-season. In Wins He's a 2.04 Career ERA. In no Decisions a still Ace like 2.93 ERA. But Losses. He's a terrible 6.12 ERA. When it goes bad for him and he doesn't have it, he just loses it. On average that comes to 32% of his games started. Kind of a higher rate than expected but if he gave you 33 GS he's an Ace for 22 1/2 of them. The other 10 1/2 you're trotting out your 24th and 25th men to finish the game for you.

 

Taking this stat: Lynn is a 28% rate. And an Ace too on the wins even higher, but a #2 for no-decisions-3.37. Also worse 6.5 Losing ERA

Cobb is 30.4%. Worse 6.64 ERA in Losses. But a better 1.65 ERA in Wins. a worse No decision though at 3.36.

Arrieta is a 28.4% rate of the worst in losses- 7.17 ERA The best 1.6 ERA in Wins, But by far the worst 4.04 in no decisions.

 

So the Win pcts become:

Arrieta-44.7%

Cobb-41.7%

Lynn- 39.3%

Darvish-42.7% but 67.9% Ace like ERA when including No-Decisions.

 

Darvish and Cobb have strictly been SPs. Arrieta (6Games-6.75ERA) and Lynn (22Games-3.16ERA)do have some RP involved in these stats.

 

 

A little Behind the numbers. More reason to hate Arrieta

[brewmann04]

seems the cubs have or will make Darvish an offer and if they do don't think the Crew will be able to compete

[Mudville9]

I'm still hoping the Twins get Darvish and the Cubs pay big money for Arrieta. I think that will end up being a bad contract after year 2.

[Eye Black]

The writing is kind of on the wall at this point, from the Twins beat reporter...

 

@MikeBerardino: Club official that has been in contact with #mntwins front office expressed doubt about their chances of landing Yu Darvish now that his market seems revived. “They aren’t giving him $150 million,” official said.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

The writing is kind of on the wall at this point, from the Twins beat reporter...

 

@MikeBerardino: Club official that has been in contact with #mntwins front office expressed doubt about their chances of landing Yu Darvish now that his market seems revived. “They aren’t giving him $150 million,” official said.

 

I kind of wonder if Darvish might circle back around to the Brewers' offer if nothing else he likes better materializes? It wouldn't be the first time a deal played out like that.

[Warning Track Power]

The writing is kind of on the wall at this point, from the Twins beat reporter...

 

@MikeBerardino: Club official that has been in contact with #mntwins front office expressed doubt about their chances of landing Yu Darvish now that his market seems revived. “They aren’t giving him $150 million,” official said.

 

I kind of wonder if Darvish might circle back around to the Brewers' offer if nothing else he likes better materializes? It wouldn't be the first time a deal played out like that.

I would be surprised if the Brewers offer was within $10 million of $150 million. I have to imagine their best offer was 5 years $130-$135 and even that would be a welcome surprise.

[bill hAll Star]

Yeah, if the market is truly booming for Darvish, the Brewers are not involved.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Yeah, if the market is truly booming for Darvish, the Brewers are not involved.

 

I don't think it's booming, though, which explains why he hasn't signed anywhere yet. I have a feeling that whoever signs him is going to get him for below projections.

 

I have a feeling he probably has 3-4 offers in hand already, all offering a similar per year average. It's a matter of preference at this point for him.

[tmwiese55]

Put in your guesses on the numbers, I'm going to say 5/135. Was thinking less before what was posted above from the Twins.

[KeithStone53151]

I think he'll get 5/135 but with a vesting option and an opt out after 2 years. The total guarantee will be 140. And I still think it's a west coast teams or the rangers that gets him. No yankees, no cubs, no twins.

[bill hAll Star]

Yeah, if the market is truly booming for Darvish, the Brewers are not involved.

 

I don't think it's booming, though, which explains why he hasn't signed anywhere yet. I have a feeling that whoever signs him is going to get him for below projections.

 

I have a feeling he probably has 3-4 offers in hand already, all offering a similar per year average. It's a matter of preference at this point for him.

 

The post you quoted up there mentions that the market has opened back up. I really doubt that the Brewers win a bidding war with the Cubs or Dodgers. It's optimistic-level thinking to think that a guy of Darvish's caliber is going to circle back around to Milwaukee.

[FVBrewerFan]

Yeah, if the market is truly booming for Darvish, the Brewers are not involved.

 

I don't think it's booming, though, which explains why he hasn't signed anywhere yet. I have a feeling that whoever signs him is going to get him for below projections.

 

I have a feeling he probably has 3-4 offers in hand already, all offering a similar per year average. It's a matter of preference at this point for him.

 

He will get every bit of what is projected, probably more. And it won't be the Brewers or Twins. One of the big money teams will get him, tax or not. This is nothing shocking, it's business as usual.

[pacopete4]

If the numbers go up to that, I'm happy the Brewers were out.