2022 MLB Draft Thread (Pre-Draft Discussion)

[nate82]

9 hours ago, Never Outhustled said:

They only went HS in 2018 because there wasn't a college hitter to ever consider. The same with why they went with Small. The preference of Johnson will be college hitter, because the analytics favor that approach. Obviously, you can't force it if the players aren't there, but it looks like they will be this year. 

Getting a 3B coming off a 1.348 OPS sophomore year at #27 is light years better than pre-Johnson when we took an OF coming off a 933 OPS junior year, in the same conference. Just have to cross our fingers that Wagner lasts that long. 

Yes, there's way more to it than just OPS, but those things are favorable with Wagner too.

I am thinking if they go the college route it will be someone like Sterlin Thompson who is closer to someone the Brewers have drafted recently in Mitchell.  I don't believe the Brewers really care about what position the player is playing and what is currently in their minors.  I mean it counts for something but very little in the grand scheme of everything.  

I just have this feeling that the Brewers are going to go with a high school positional player this year.  It maybe irrational but I think that is where they will be going and if someone like Jett Williams is there who really shouldn't be they will go after them.  

[LouisEly]

On 6/5/2022 at 2:06 PM, Never Outhustled said:

They only went HS in 2018 because there wasn't a college hitter to ever consider.

That may be part of it, but they were also very familiar with Turang as he was on some type of summer/travel team that the Brewers sponsored/coached.  Can't remember the exact relationship, but there was a connection between a team Turang was on and the Brewers.

[Robocaller]

On 6/7/2022 at 12:41 PM, LouisEly said:

That may be part of it, but they were also very familiar with Turang as he was on some type of summer/travel team that the Brewers sponsored/coached.  Can't remember the exact relationship, but there was a connection between a team Turang was on and the Brewers.

Turang also dropped a lot.

 

[nate82]

8 hours ago, Robocaller said:

Turang also dropped a lot.

 

Not really unless you are referring to the beginning of the year for that draft.  Pre 2018 season Turang was looked at as the #1 pick but as the year went on he dropped further and further.  Majority of the mocks didn’t even have him in the first round.  Consensus on Turang was someone on the outside of the 1st round by the time the draft rolled around.

[Robocaller]

4 hours ago, nate82 said:

Not really unless you are referring to the beginning of the year for that draft.  

I was.

[Opening Day]

Just a general comment on drafts.  There will be quality players who will eventually contribute in the majors available at 27, 63, and decreasingly so at every pick after that.  Its the GMs job to find those guys.  "What do you expect at 27?" Doesnt work for me.  Reaching is an overused term with an unknowing definition.  What I mean by that is it assumed the guy could be had later.  Well in the teams at 28, 29, and 33 were all going to draft a player, 27 isnt a reach, but who knows what the other teams will do.  Also if a guy can play, lets say Baseball Americas 190th ranked player, and he gets drafted at 27 and said player becomes one of the top 27 plauers in the draft it isnt a reach.  Technically a "reach" is any guy drafted that cant play.  Height is the least of my concerns, this isnt the NBA or NFL, no one is jumping over you to make a play.

[LouisEly]

That, and in baseball you can't trade up or down.  If you don't think a guy will be there with your next pick you have to take him.  Maybe a guy you project to go later but before your next pick at $500k below slot is a better overall draft strategy execution than BPA who you know is going to want over slot.

[Eye Black]

On 6/7/2022 at 12:41 PM, LouisEly said:

That may be part of it, but they were also very familiar with Turang as he was on some type of summer/travel team that the Brewers sponsored/coached.  Can't remember the exact relationship, but there was a connection between a team Turang was on and the Brewers.

Turang was a member of the Brewers Area Code Games team from Southern California which includes Brewers scouts serving as the coaches. Other players from the Brewers Area Code Games team they’ve drafted include Garrett Mitchell and Je’Von Ward. While they obviously didn’t draft him, Christian Yelich also played for the Brewers Area Codes team. 

The Brewers team is usually stacked because they have arguably the best geographic footprint of talent. Notable alumni for the Brewers team also includes Freddie Freeman, Giancarlo Stanton, Gerrit Cole, Marcus Semien, Nolan Arenado, Max Fried, Lucas Giolito, Dominic Smith, Jack Flaherty, Patrick Sandoval, and Hunter Greene [among others]. 

Here is last year’s Brewers Area Code Games Team Roster:

 

For anyone curious here is a link to this year’s Brewers Area Code Team Roster 

[DR28]

Gotta imagine we go college pitcher at 27?

I would love to find our 3B of the future this year.

[brewmann04]

Always need Pitching 

[Robocaller]

Any college 1B prospect worthy of #27? I'm kinda tired of always having a stopgap at that position (since Fielder).

 

[nate82]

1 hour ago, Robocaller said:

Any college 1B prospect worthy of #27? I'm kinda tired of always having a stopgap at that position (since Fielder).

 

If a GM drafts a 1B who is not at the level of Fielder or better in the 1st round they deserve to be fired on the spot.  

There isn't really a 1B prospect in the top 100 but I will try and answer your question more seriously now.  At #27 probably the only 1B option would be either Cayden Wallace or Tucker Toman.  

For the 2nd round if they are available either Xavier Isaac or Ivan Melendez would be good options.  If the Brewers go for 1B I would prefer Xavier Isaac.  Isaac has elite power which is what you want from a 1B but he does use the whole field so he has gap to gap power and not just a pure pull hitter.  

[Robocaller]

4 hours ago, nate82 said:

If a GM drafts a 1B who is not at the level of Fielder or better in the 1st round they deserve to be fired on the spot.  

There isn't really a 1B prospect in the top 100 but I will try and answer your question more seriously now.  At #27 probably the only 1B option would be either Cayden Wallace or Tucker Toman.  

For the 2nd round if they are available either Xavier Isaac or Ivan Melendez would be good options.  If the Brewers go for 1B I would prefer Xavier Isaac.  Isaac has elite power which is what you want from a 1B but he does use the whole field so he has gap to gap power and not just a pure pull hitter.  

I looked at one top-400 list, and the only 1b in the top 50 was Jacob Berry (listed as OF/1B, but has played OF and 3B) from LSU. There are several tall OF who might eventually get moved to 1B.

Maybe one in the 2nd or 3rd?

 

[nate82]

Here are my picks for the Brewers:

27: Kumar Rocker RHP.  I think the Brewers go the risky route here with Rocker available at 27 and place him aggressively at Wisconsin to start his minor league career.  Rocker should be a fast mover if he is able to command his pitches.

63: Sonny DiChiara 1B.  Probably more of a DH than a 1B but he has a lot of power and can get on base and won't strike out a lot.  The big question mark for DiChiara is if he can hit a breaking ball.  If he can adjust and hit breaking balls then this will be more than a senior signing.  This pick is mostly just a senior signing to sign someone else.  

72: Bradley Loftin LHP.  This is where the Sonny drafting comes in to help the Brewers.  Loftin has a strong commit to Mississippi State but with the savings from pick 63 the Brewers take Loftin and give him a $2m bonus to sign.  This is a dream signing if the Brewers can do this.  I would even look at Loftin earlier even at 27.  I think Loftin in 3-years is a top 5 draft prospect.

102: Jacob Misiorowski RHP.  100 MPH fastball with a wipeout slider.  Jacob looks to be what the Brewers used to look for in pitchers in the Doug Melvin era.  I think the Brewers take him here if he is available and he would be a very tantalizing bullpen piece if not a possible closer.   

With this draft the Brewers go pitching heavy with their first 4 picks.  Biggest wildcard is Rocker who could be a complete dud if he is not able to figure out his control problems.  

[DR28]

I'm sure this won't happen and he probably won't last until pick 27 but I would love to see us draft Jordan Beck from Tennessee.

Can you imagine an OF of Beck in LF, Mitchell or Frelick in CF and Wiemer in RF... OMG!! With Yelich at DH.

Talk about power in the corners and dudes who can go get it in CF.

I'll keep dreaming about this until it doesnt happen.

[nate82]

I mentioned Beck in a previous post that I think he would be a target for the Brewers I am just not sure he drops to the Brewers.  An OF of Beck, Mitchell/Frelick and Wiemer would be rather exciting.  Lots of power and speed in the OF.  

[DR28]

13 minutes ago, nate82 said:

I mentioned Beck in a previous post that I think he would be a target for the Brewers I am just not sure he drops to the Brewers.  An OF of Beck, Mitchell/Frelick and Wiemer would be rather exciting.  Lots of power and speed in the OF.  

Yea agreed, I dont think he lasts until 27… Go college pitcher than I guess.

[LouisEly]

#27 - Justin Campbell, RHP, Oklahoma State; Cooper Hjerpe, LHP, Oregon State; Drew Gilbert, CF, Tennessee

#63 - Brycen Mautz, LHP, San Diego; Max Wagner, 3B, Clemson; Eric Brown, SS, Coastal Carolina

#72 - Jacob Reimer, 3B, HS; Bradley Loftin, LHP, HS; Ivan Melendez, 1B, Texas

#102 - Colby Holcombe, RHP, CC; Trey Lipscomb, 3B, Tennessee; Gavin Kilen, SS, HS

#132 - Troy Melton, RHP, San Diego State; Malachi Witherspoon, RHP, HS; Cade Hunter, C, Virginia Tech

#162 - Luc Lipcius, 1B, Tennessee (senior sign), Matt Wood, C, Penn State, Cory Lewis, RHP, UC-Santa Barbara

#192 - Zach Morgan, C, Fresno State; Steven Zobac, RHP, Cal; Orion Kerkering, RHP, South Florida

[nate82]

Keith Law has a new mock up: https://theathletic.com/3374301/2022/06/21/mlb-mock-draft-druw-jones/

He has the Brewers taking Adam Mazur, RHP, Iowa.  This would be a good pick if the Brewers go with Mazur he is a 92-95 MPH pitcher who can go deep into games with that velocity.  He has a good fastball and can locate it consistently.  He does have an out pitch with a slider though his other offerings are just average to above average.  He will probably struggle with left handed hitters so he is probably more of #3 pitcher if everything goes right but more than likely will be a #4 or #5 type pitcher.  

Where the Brewers are drafting this is basically what you can expect unless someone drops like Rocker and even Rocker has some issues where he may only be a reliever because of his control issues. 

This draft is a weird one where there really isn't a college pitcher who is a dominant must draft pitcher.  If the Brewers go pitcher it will be with a college pitcher and I think Mazur would be one of the pitchers the Brewers would be looking at.  If one of the college bats drop like Beck that maybe the pick also.  I am hoping for Williams to drop as that would be an awesome pick as he has been mocked in the 12-17 range. 

[brewers888]

Ivan Melendez should be a consideration for the Brewers. 

[nate82]

46 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

Ivan Melendez should be a consideration for the Brewers. 

Ivan Melendez is basically a Chris Carter or Joey Gallo type of a player more so Carter than Gallo because he is limited to DH or 1B only.  He should put up 35+ HR's a year but he is also going to strikeout 150+ times a year.  That should put him in the 3rd or 4th round.  If the Brewers think they can sign him for below slot then the comp B pick would be fine also.  For example if you think someone like Loftin will be available with the 3rd pick then take Mendez and sign him for below slot and try and overspend on the 3rd round pick.  

[brewers888]

41 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Ivan Melendez is basically a Chris Carter or Joey Gallo type of a player more so Carter than Gallo because he is limited to DH or 1B only.  He should put up 35+ HR's a year but he is also going to strikeout 150+ times a year.  That should put him in the 3rd or 4th round.  If the Brewers think they can sign him for below slot then the comp B pick would be fine also.  For example if you think someone like Loftin will be available with the 3rd pick then take Mendez and sign him for below slot and try and overspend on the 3rd round pick.  

Admittedly I only saw a few games with Melendez but he looked like a really good hitter not just a power guy. He's an older college player but its hard to ignore the numbers he put up this season. 

[nate82]

9 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

Admittedly I only saw a few games with Melendez but he looked like a really good hitter not just a power guy. He's an older college player but its hard to ignore the numbers he put up this season. 

Some scouting reports:

MLB:

Quote

With the strength in his 6-foot-3, 225-pound frame and an uphill right-handed swing, Melendez is geared to drive balls in the air and produces plus-plus raw power that plays from foul pole to foul pole. He doesn't have standout bat speed, so there are some concerns about how he'll handle quality velocity against more advanced pitchers. He's doing a much better job of controlling the strike zone this spring and has improved his ability to do damage against breaking balls and changeups. 

Melendez still doesn't offer much value beyond his bat and a righty-hitting first baseman is the least attractive profile for pro teams. He's a well below-average runner with limited range and an average arm. He's an adequate defender at first base and his only other alternative is DH. 

Keith Law:

Quote

It’s power over hit, as his pitch recognition is just fair, and he can chase fastballs up and breaking stuff down, but when he gets a hold of one the ball flies off his bat. 

If anything he is probably somewhere around a 3rd or 4th round pick and will probably be someone's senior sign.  The power is there but with his swing he is going to strike out a lot.  He did cut down his strikeout rate by 10% this year which is good but once he starts seeing better pitchers that strikeout rate is more than likely going to be at 40%+.  The power is there and he will hit a lot of home runs but the biggest question mark for him offensively is if he will be able to keep his strikeout rate down enough.  He would be fine as a 3rd or 4th round pick but any higher than that it would be a waste of a pick.  

[LouisEly]

On 6/22/2022 at 11:22 AM, nate82 said:

Ivan Melendez is basically a Chris Carter or Joey Gallo type of a player more so Carter than Gallo because he is limited to DH or 1B only.  He should put up 35+ HR's a year but he is also going to strikeout 150+ times a year.  That should put him in the 3rd or 4th round.  If the Brewers think they can sign him for below slot then the comp B pick would be fine also.  For example if you think someone like Loftin will be available with the 3rd pick then take Mendez and sign him for below slot and try and overspend on the 3rd round pick.  

You mentioned Jordan Beck earlier as a guy who probably won't make it to MIL at #27.

Jordan Beck's BB & K rates in 2022:  12.5%, 21%

Ivan Melendez's BB & K rates in 2022:  16.5%, 16%

Yes, Beck has more defensive value, but If Melendez will strikeout 150 times in a season, Beck will strikeout 180.

[nate82]

17 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

You mentioned Jordan Beck earlier as a guy who probably won't make it to MIL at #27.

Jordan Beck's BB & K rates in 2022:  12.5%, 21%

Ivan Melendez's BB & K rates in 2022:  16.5%, 16%

Yes, Beck has more defensive value, but If Melendez will strikeout 150 times in a season, Beck will strikeout 180.

Beck has a problem with being impatient and will take overly aggressive hacks.  Basically he is a clone of Hunter Renfroe.  Beck has less holes in his swing compared to Melendez.  Melendez’s issue with his swing is that it is a bit slow.

Both have K issues but I would be less concerned with Beck’s than I would be with Melendez’s.