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2022 MLB Draft Thread (Pre-Draft Discussion)


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Starting the thread for 2022 MLB Draft discussion.

 

The order has been set for the 2022 MLB Draft (assuming they don’t alter the way the draft order is determined in the new CBA this offseason). NL Central teams listed in BOLD.

 

1. Orioles (52-110)

2. D-backs (52-110)

3. Rangers (60-102)

4. Pirates (61-101)

5. Nationals (65-97)

6. Marlins (67-95)

7. Cubs (71-91)

8. Twins (73-89)

9. Royals (74-88)

10. Rockies (74-87)

11. Mets (compensation)*

12. Tigers (77-85)

13. Angels (77-85)

14. Mets (77-85)

15. Padres (79-83)

16. Indians (80-82)

17. Phillies (82-80)

18. Reds (83-79)

19. A’s (86-76)

20. Braves (88-73)

21. Mariners (90-72)

22. Cardinals (90-72)

23. Blue Jays (91-71)

24. Red Sox (92-70)

25. Yankees (92-70)

26. White Sox (93-69)

27. Brewers (95-67)

28. Astros (95-67)

29. Rays (100-62)

30. Dodgers (106-56)

31. Giants (107-55)

 

*--compensation for not signing 2021 Draft pick Kumar Rocker

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  • 2 months later...

Assuming the Brewers stay at 27 which I believe they will there are some interesting players at that range. Here are my way too early players I am watching.

 

If the draft happened today I would be hoping for Cam Collier (3B) would fall to the Brewers. Cam has a really nice left handed swing and should be an average to above average base runner. He won't swipe many bags but he has enough speed to not be a liability. He has a decent arm at 90 MPH from the mound which should be more than adequate to play at 3B. Defensively I think he could move to the OF if he is not able to handle 3B or move to 1B. He uses the whole field and isn't a pull happy hitter either. He is only 17 and doesn't turn 18 until November of 2022 so his power should grow. He has a very advanced bat to ball skill. I am going to assume he will be taken before the Brewers pick but right now he is ranked in the 20-25 range which is close enough to where the Brewers pick. I think his stock will sky rocket this summer and he maybe a top 10 pick.

 

A HS pitcher that I like in this area is Andrew Dutkanych. This will be a hard sell for him as I think he may just go to Vanderbilt if he isn't drafted in the top 10. If he goes to Vanderbilt he is probably a top 5 pick. He has a plus-above average fastball depending on who you ask and a plus slider. I am not sold on the curveball he throws but some scouts have labeled it as a plus potential. He hasn't thrown many change-ups but that is another pitch that some scouts believe could be an above average pitch. He still has some more room to grow into his frame also. He has an effortless delivery.

 

Kumar Rocker could also go around this point depending on his health or he could already be gone.

 

Ian Ritchie is someone who could fly up the draft boards but I think he will be available when the Brewers pick. I believe Ritchie is the best HS pitcher in this class and someone who will stay as a SP. He is probably the safest bet as a HS pitcher to make it to the majors and be a starting pitcher. His fastball is similar to Woodruff's where he can get up to 97 but mostly lives in the 92-95 range. He is also extremely accurate with his fastball and can put it where he wants. His slider is also a good pitch with plus potential along with his curveball which looks to have above average potential. Mechanics wise he is perfect. If Ritchie is available when the Brewers are picking I would be highly disappointed if they don't take him at 27. I think Ritchie could be a #1 or #2 type pitcher with potential ace level pitcher if everything goes right for him.

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  • 5 weeks later...
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Jim Callis has the Brewers taking

27. Brewers: Andrew Dutkanych, RHP, Brebeuf Jesuit Prep, Indianapolis 

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-mock-draft-2022-position-players-standout

I don’t think the Brewers will go with a prep pitcher with their first pick.  I don’t think under the Stearns era there has been a prep pitcher taken with the first pick.

I think the Brewers go with a college pitcher with their first pick.  

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On 5/12/2022 at 3:55 PM, nate82 said:

Jim Callis has the Brewers taking

27. Brewers: Andrew Dutkanych, RHP, Brebeuf Jesuit Prep, Indianapolis 

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-mock-draft-2022-position-players-standout

I don’t think the Brewers will go with a prep pitcher with their first pick.  I don’t think under the Stearns era there has been a prep pitcher taken with the first pick.

I think the Brewers go with a college pitcher with their first pick.  

Boy, I keep forgetting that they've now moved the draft back to around the All-Star week in July, correct?  Was surprised to come here and not see much draft chatter yet, but I guess that explains it.  

I hear what you're saying about a prep arm, but the Brewers under Stearns also seem to like to find good value in these later 1st round picks.  See Turang and Mitchell - who both seemed to fall in their respective drafts.  Sounds like this Dutkanych is another one of those guys that might be seeing his draft stock fall a bit right now.  But I do agree that I think they'd prefer to find value in a college arm or bat that is falling.  

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7 minutes ago, Madhawk23 said:

Boy, I keep forgetting that they've now moved the draft back to around the All-Star week in July, correct?  Was surprised to come here and not see much draft chatter yet, but I guess that explains it.  

I hear what you're saying about a prep arm, but the Brewers under Stearns also seem to like to find good value in these later 1st round picks.  See Turang and Mitchell - who both seemed to fall in their respective drafts.  Sounds like this Dutkanych is another one of those guys that might be seeing his draft stock fall a bit right now.  But I do agree that I think they'd prefer to find value in a college arm or bat that is falling.  

Maybe they will go with a prep arm in the first round if the right player falls but I am not so sure on that.  I think the Brewers will still go with a college arm.

Also new for 2022 but old for MLB the draft and follow is back.  

https://www.mlb.com/news/draft-rule-changes-with-new-cba

Quote

The draft-and-follow rule returns, allowing clubs that select players who opt to attend junior college to sign them between the end of their juco season and the beginning of the next year's Draft. Any bonus amount over $225,000 will count toward teams' bonus pools. A similar rule existed before being eliminated with the 2007-11 CBA.

 

It has been awhile since the draft and follow has been part of the MLB draft so this could be interesting or just nothing in the first year that this has come back.

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Who are some of the college arms that we might want to hope for late in the 1st round of this year's draft?  I know you want to take "best player available," but I sure hope that BPA is an arm this year - as we could really use an influx of pitching talent into our system right now.  

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If Rocker is still there I think the Brewers will take him.  The college arms this year are not all that great so it maybe another year where the Brewers take a bat again at least with their first pick.  Some of the college pitchers where the Brewers will be making their first pick are probably more 2nd or 3rd round picks.  

Rocker probably has the highest upside but it is hard to tell where he will be drafted.  He could be available when the Brewers are picking or he could be gone well before the Brewers pick.  

Justin Campbell is a name I have seen a few times mocked to the Brewers.  Someone like Campbell who is more a 2nd round pick is probably who the Brewers would go with if they go the college arm pick.  

The Brewers already have a glut of OF's in the minors but I wouldn't be surprised if the Brewers take either Jordan Beck or Dylan Beavers both are college OF's.  A prep SS wouldn't also be a surprise here either.  Jett Williams or Cole Young would be my guess here if they go the prep route.  

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Keith Law released his updated Mock Draft today for The Athletic:

https://theathletic.com/3317893/2022/05/19/mlb-mock-draft-jacob-berry/

He had Adam Mazur, RHP, Iowa mocked to the Brewers at #27, but in his comments he wrote, "I’ve heard the Brewers with Oklahoma State’s Justin Campbell as well, although he seems like a reach for the first."

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9 minutes ago, Eye Black said:

Keith Law released his updated Mock Draft today for The Athletic:

https://theathletic.com/3317893/2022/05/19/mlb-mock-draft-jacob-berry/

He had Adam Mazur, RHP, Iowa mocked to the Brewers at #27, but in his comments he wrote, "I’ve heard the Brewers with Oklahoma State’s Justin Campbell as well, although he seems like a reach for the first."

Brewers next pick isn't until #63, so I've got no problem with them picking someone they might be higher on than industry consensus.

Could be mis-remembering, but wasn't Small considered a reach when we drafted him in the late first round? He's turned out okay so far.  

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3 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Brewers next pick isn't until #63, so I've got no problem with them picking someone they might be higher on than industry consensus.

Could be mis-remembering, but wasn't Small considered a reach when we drafted him in the late first round? He's turned out okay so far.  

He was a reach but not as much as Campbell would be. 

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Ethan Small was ranked as Baseball America’s #45 overall draft prospect in 2019 before the Brewers drafted him at 28th overall. 

Looking into Justin Campbell a little more, Baseball America has him ranked as their #43 draft prospect. He’s a 6’7” RHP. For those interested in the draft I highly recommend a Baseball America subscription (they have a monthly option). Below are some of their notes on Campbell:

Justin Campbell

Oklahoma State   RHP

HT: 6-7 | Wt: 221 | B-T: L-R 
Commit/Drafted: Astros '19 (18) 
Age At Draft: 21.4 
Campbell has hit and pitched for Oklahoma State in his first two seasons with the program, primarily serving as a designated hitter when he’s not pitching. He’s a career .313/.422/.448 hitter who’s shown solid strike zone discipline, but Campbell’s upside is likely higher on the mound. He pitched to a 2.57 ERA last spring over 13 starts and 84 innings, with a three-pitch mix that included a fastball that sat around 90 mph and two standout secondaries in a curveball and changeup. Campbell is listed at 6-foot-7, 221 pounds and could take off with increased velocity during his draft year.

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Sure Ethan Small turned out fine so far, but I think I'd prefer guys who can regularly throw harder than 90 mph. 90-91 mph might've been at least average in the early 2000s, but I reckon it's a different ballgame nowadays.  

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38 minutes ago, narwhalattack said:

Sure Ethan Small turned out fine so far, but I think I'd prefer guys who can regularly throw harder than 90 mph. 90-91 mph might've been at least average in the early 2000s, but I reckon it's a different ballgame nowadays.  

Small also slipped in the rankings because he didn’t have the high velocity to match his eye popping strikeout totals. Turned out he has elite spin & other qualities that have made his fastball so effective. I believe he has also added velocity since the Brewers drafted him.

Brewers also seem to be believers in attack angle, extension & other secondary traits that can help pitchers translate their success at higher levels. Given his size, I wouldn’t be surprised if Campbell checks some of those boxes as well. 

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What about Ben Joyce from Tennessee the flamethrower from Tennessee? He has been rated in the 100's but I would assume when rankings get updated before the draft he will skyrocket. There are not too many guys who can hit 104. He could potentially be a guy to make it up to the majors this year and help the last month of the year and playoffs if he is successful.

Drafting at 27 and not having that extra 1st we sometimes get for the small market I would guess we draft a guy to sign below slot and get a higher profile HS prospect with 63 or 72.

I like RHP Adam Mazur from Iowa as a slight reach guy who would sign an under slot deal. He throws 93-95 but can easily put on 30 pounds and would likely be throwing close to 100. Landon Sims from Miss. St would be another nice option, he will likely be a high end bullpen option but might be able to start.

 

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On 5/19/2022 at 8:40 PM, nate82 said:

He was a reach but not as much as Campbell would be. 

MLB Pipeline currently has Campbell at #34.  From their scouting profile:

Hitters just don't seem to see the ball well against Campbell, who has a 6-foot-7 frame and deceptive mechanics with an unusual approach angle. His fastball sits around 91 mph and touches 96, and it features high spin rates and running action that generate a lot of harmless contact. He has a pair of solid secondary pitches that he'll use against both left-handers and right-handers: an upper-70s changeup with even more horizonal movement than his heater and a mid-70s curveball that creates a lot of empty swings and groundouts. 

Not seeing the ball well... deceptive mechanics... high spin rates... a lot of harmless contact... solid changeup... sounds a lot like the Brewers type of pitching prospect.

On the season in 94 IP Campbell has given up 73 hits, walked 23 (2.2/9 IP) and K'd 133 (12.7/9) for a Power-5 Oklahoma State.  I would not at all be upset with him as the pick at #27.

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If Wisconsinite Connor Prielipp is still there, do they take a chance on him?  Does his injury history push him down to the Brewers?  Pipeline has him at #24.

The Brewers like up-the-middle guys so you can't rule out Zach Neto or Frelick-clone Drew Gilbert.  Speaking of clones, there's Ethan Small clone Cooper Hjerpe, who in 84 IP this season has given up 57 hits, walked 17 (1.8/9 IP, and has improved every year), and struck out 135 (14.5/9 IP) against Pac-12 competition.

If I'm handicapping it, I'm ranking them in order as Campbell, Hjerpe, Gilbert, then Neto with Prielipp as my "if he's still available".  If I have a "don't be surprised by" guy, it would be Hjerpe's teammate Jacob Melton.

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