Yelich before & after kneecap injury

[edfunderburk]

I saw a stat last night on AppleTV+ broadcast that compared Yelich’s stats before & after his injury

Did anyone else catch that graphic?

The # of at bats were nearly identical 

The difference was mind-blowing

It’s exciting to see Yelich getting on base again, but he will likely never come close to the player he was in 2019

He has virtually zero power these days & his defense is mundane to say the least

I believe Frelick could produce equal or more power should he get an opportunity next year

 

[edfunderburk]

Just now, edfunderburk said:

I believe Frelick could produce equal or more power should he get an opportunity next year

 

I’m aware they play different positions

I referenced Frelick because he is known to lack power but is superior defensively & is lightning fast

[edfunderburk]

I’ve attached his stats below, but I’m not sure how to compile the stats to get a true comparison between Yelich’s pre-injury & post-injury:

 

2018 & 2019

1063 AB - 357 hits, .327 BA, 70 doubles, 9 triples, 80 HR, 207 RBI, 671 total bases, & 52 of 58 stolen bases

 

2020 to 2022

978 AB - 239 hits, .244 BA, 43 doubles, 7 triples, 29 HR, 108 RBI, 383 total bases, & 29 of 34 stolen bases

 

Someone smarter than me could figure out the SLG, OBP, & OBS percentages (which I’d love to see) 

 

The falloff is drastic … surely this is injury related

The suddenness of his fall from MVP level to slightly above average (being generous) is remarkable

 

 

[Axman59]

It sure would have been nice if Stearns had waited until Yelich proved he was over his knee injury before offering a huge contract extension.

At the time people were roasting Yelich for taking a perceived hometown discount but Yelich did the smart thing. Now he has generational wealth no matter how badly he plays baseball.

[UpandIn]

4 hours ago, edfunderburk said:

I’ve attached his stats below, but I’m not sure how to compile the stats to get a true comparison between Yelich’s pre-injury & post-injury:

 

2018 & 2019

1063 AB - 357 hits, .327 BA, 70 doubles, 9 triples, 80 HR, 207 RBI, 671 total bases, & 52 of 58 stolen bases

 

2020 to 2022

978 AB - 239 hits, .244 BA, 43 doubles, 7 triples, 29 HR, 108 RBI, 383 total bases, & 29 of 34 stolen bases

 

Someone smarter than me could figure out the SLG, OBP, & OBS percentages (which I’d love to see) 

 

The falloff is drastic … surely this is injury related

The suddenness of his fall from MVP level to slightly above average (being generous) is remarkable

 

 

 

.327/.415/.631 with a 1.046 OPS in '18-'19 OPS+ 171

 

.244/.361/.392 with an OPS+ of 107 since the ending of 2019

 

I don't actually believe it was the knee that zapped the power. He came back in 2020 and he still hit the ball hard and in the air. I think it was last year and the back where the change became more clear and the distinction showed up more in how/where he hit the ball. FAR more on the ground and not the same exit velocity.

But...that's kinda moot at this point. The knee injury IS when he stopped producing at a truly elite level.

[Axman59]

3 hours ago, UpandIn said:

 

 

But...that's kinda moot at this point. The knee injury IS when he stopped producing at a truly elite level.

I'm not an orthopedic doctor but I think the knee injury helped cause the back injury which sapped his power.

[UpandIn]

28 minutes ago, Axman59 said:

I'm not an orthopedic doctor but I think the knee injury helped cause the back injury which sapped his power.

That'd seem likely if Yelich didn't have a history of those same types of back issues dating back to his earlier years with the Marlins.

I guess...he found his power after the initial back injury, no reason he can't get it back? Or some measure of it...

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/miami-marlins/fl-miami-marlins-news-0423-20150422-story.html

[Robocaller]

10 hours ago, edfunderburk said:

I saw a stat last night on AppleTV+ broadcast that compared Yelich’s stats before & after his injury

Did anyone else catch that graphic?

The # of at bats were nearly identical 

The difference was mind-blowing

It’s exciting to see Yelich getting on base again, but he will likely never come close to the player he was in 2019

He has virtually zero power these days & his defense is mundane to say the least

I believe Frelick could produce equal or more power should he get an opportunity next year

 

If you take out Yelich's two best years, Frelick could produce as well as a young Yelich. And he'd be a better defender.

[UpandIn]

1 hour ago, Robocaller said:

If you take out Yelich's two best years, Frelick could produce as well as a young Yelich. And he'd be a better defender.

Yelich first 4 1/2 seasons(21-25) he put up 17.5 B'Ref War and 17.6 FWar. to go with a 

.290/.369/.432 line and an OPS of .800 with an OPS+ of 121

If you get THAT offensive production and better defense or good CF defense? That'd be huge. That'd be an All-Star caliber player. Even if you knock off 10 points from his BA to account for the lower BA across the league(Which I actually don't think will impact him as much if his bat control is as good as advertised).
 

If the Brewers get rookie level Yelich production from Frelick next year, he and the man himself, Yelich, should be a nice combo at the top of the order. 
Yelich-DH
Adames-SS
Frelick-CF
Renfroe-LF
Rowdy-1B
Wiemer-RF
Turang-2B
Urias/Bosseau/Jace-3B
Severino/Cartanini-C

Mitchell, Ruiz, Tyler Black...couple other guys who could force their way in by seasons end.

 

But first, we've got a WS to win this year under the "This Brewers team traded away it's start closer and Craig Counsell united them under their dominant Bullpen led by Devin Williams, Trevor Rosenthal who has come back from a multi year absence and gone right back to throwing 99 MPH and dominating closers, along with Matt Bush and Mark Rogers who took a few outings to settled in, but we a part of the best team in baseball from August 10th on."

And this is definitely how this season will play out...because the team you expect to win the WS is almost NEVER the team that wins the WS...

[Jopal78]

13 hours ago, Axman59 said:

It sure would have been nice if Stearns had waited until Yelich proved he was over his knee injury before offering a huge contract extension.

At the time people were roasting Yelich for taking a perceived hometown discount but Yelich did the smart thing. Now he has generational wealth no matter how badly he plays baseball.

I hate these types of posts. Fans grumble because they signed (at the time) an MVP caliber hitter to an extension. There’s likely another equally vocal group of fans who would grumble had they not signed Yelich to an extension and his ‘18-‘19 level of play continued on for another club.  In a sense, damned  if they do, damned if they don’t. 
 

As for Yelich, he would  not be alone amongst his brothers in the MLBPA having a couple terrific seasons and never reaching those heights again, especially as he ages into his 30s.
 

He’s still a good player and isn’t far off from his production level with the Marlins when he was in his early 20s. Which is what the Brewers traded for in the first place. 
 

 

[NBBrewFan]

27 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

I hate these types of posts. Fans grumble because they signed (at the time) an MVP caliber hitter to an extension. There’s likely another equally vocal group of fans who would grumble had they not signed Yelich to an extension and his ‘18-‘19 level of play continued on for another club.  In a sense, damned  if they do, damned if they don’t. 

I'm guessing 99.9% of those other instances didn't involve the extension occurring after a season ending injury and before the player was in game shape again.  

[Jopal78]

24 minutes ago, NBBrewFan said:

I'm guessing 99.9% of those other instances didn't involve the extension occurring after a season ending injury and before the player was in game shape again.  

These situations aren’t unilaterally dictated by the Brewers either. For all you or I know,  Yelich could have told the team “it’s now or never” with an extension.

Moreover. season ending injury was a broken bone that wasn’t severe enough to require surgery;, not an ACL injury, hamstring tear etc. 

Like I said, there would be folks wanting to burn Stearns in effigy regardless of the situation if they didn’t sign Yelich to an extension and he went out and destroyed like he did in ‘18 and ‘19

[NBBrewFan]

23 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

These situations aren’t unilaterally dictated by the Brewers either. For all you or I know,  Yelich could have told the team “it’s now or never” with an extension.

Moreover. season ending injury was a broken bone that wasn’t severe enough to require surgery;, not an ACL injury, hamstring tear etc. 

Like I said, there would be folks wanting to burn Stearns in effigy regardless of the situation if they didn’t sign Yelich to an extension and he went out and destroyed like he did in ‘18 and ‘19

The funny thing to me is that kneecapping has been a punishment that the mafia and other crime organizations have done for eons to punish their enemies or traitorous minions.  Lots of people have been handicapped/crippled because of it.  Sure the break Yelich had was clean and likely to heal, but there are still risks that need to be considered. If it was my $170M (or whatever the extension was) I would have been concerned enough to ignore the players demands at an immediate extension if that was the case (they still had years where they could trade him and net something like Soto netted). Yelich isn't the same hitter as he was before the injury.  If I had dropped that amount of coin on him I'd be asking the medical professionals that were consulted at the time if they wish to clarify their opinion. That's me.  Mark may be less inclined to care as long as he's still making money.  I'm not sure he's as invested in a World Series Championship as he is managing an investment. 

And yes, fans do put GMs in can't win situations, but this situation has an asterisk that makes it different than the general fan being demanding.  We don't know if the poster, who you responded to, would be one of those fans that complained based on the outcome and not the circumstances, but maybe "we" should give them the benefit of the doubt and not just lump them in with "folks".

[edfunderburk]

2 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

I hate these types of posts. Fans grumble because they signed (at the time) an MVP caliber hitter to an extension. There’s likely another equally vocal group of fans who would grumble had they not signed Yelich to an extension and his ‘18-‘19 level of play continued on for another club.  In a sense, damned  if they do, damned if they don’t. 

I understand your frustration, but if you re-read my two posts to begin this thread - I never referenced his contract extension

My point was I was surprised that Yelich now has nearly as many at bats after 2019 as he did in his first two MVP level years & the drop in production is astounding

I also suggested that this drop in production must be related to his injury

Finally, while there are other formerly great, MVP level players that fade into average players - there are few (if any) that drop as drastically … especially in power production … as Yelich

 

[Hopper]

2 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

 

He’s still a good player and isn’t far off from his production level with the Marlins when he was in his early 20s. Which is what the Brewers traded for in the first place. 
 

 

They may have TRADED for the Marlins production, but they PAID for his MVP Brewers production. 

That is why I also wish they had waited on that contract until they saw how he'd react after that knee injury.

[Hopper]

17 minutes ago, edfunderburk said:

I understand your frustration, but if you re-read my two posts to begin this thread - I never referenced his contract extension

My point was I was surprised that Yelich now has nearly as many at bats after 2019 as he did in his first two MVP level years & the drop in production is astounding

I also suggested that this drop in production must be related to his injury

Finally, while there are other formerly great, MVP level players that fade into average players - there are few (if any) that drop as drastically … especially in power production … as Yelich

 

Look no further than Cody Bellinger from the Dodgers.  He was right in the running for MVP the year Yelich won it, and has fallen off a cliff since, just like Yelich.

Weird game.

[Axman59]

1 hour ago, Hopper said:

Look no further than Cody Bellinger from the Dodgers.  He was right in the running for MVP the year Yelich won it, and has fallen off a cliff since, just like Yelich.

Weird game.

I have two comments about Bellinger: (1) He also had an injury and surgery that precipitated his statistical decline. He dislocated his shoulder in the 2020 NLCS celebrating a home run. Had surgery that offseason and has never been the same since. And (2) I always thought his swing was unsustainable. Way too all or nothing. But then I felt the same way about Ohtani when I first watched him hit...

[Axman59]

4 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

There’s likely another equally vocal group of fans who would grumble had they not signed Yelich to an extension and his ‘18-‘19 level of play continued on for another club. 

 

I did not want Yelich extended at the time. I think he had 4 years of control left on his contract. The knee injury concerned me greatly because those types of injuries (broken bones in a major joint) can lead to severe arthritis over time.

I was one of the few who thought Yelich was smart to lock in his financial security at the time--when it seemed everyone else was blasting the guy for supposedly giving the Brewers a home town discount.

On the plus side Yelich seems like a good guy and he can still get on base so it will make his contract easier to swallow going forward even if he doesn't regain his MVP form.

[UpandIn]

8 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

I hate these types of posts. Fans grumble because they signed (at the time) an MVP caliber hitter to an extension. There’s likely another equally vocal group of fans who would grumble had they not signed Yelich to an extension and his ‘18-‘19 level of play continued on for another club.  In a sense, damned  if they do, damned if they don’t. 

Imagine Burnes trying to catch a comebacker with his right hand and the Brewers extend him through arbitration and then 3 more years. I REALLY doubt you'd find a lot of fans upset about that. 

Or just make it apples to apples. He's running over to first to cover and he breaks a bone in his leg. It's still lock him up to a below market extension. 

I still don't buy it was the knee injury that "ruined" Yelich and his power. Maybe that plays a larger factor, but you look at 2020, I think it was more just bad luck. 94 MPH exit velocity, launch angle in between '18 and '19. ISO Slugging pretty high, BABIP took about a 110 point drop.

2021 is when you see the stark contrast begin. It's really just bad luck in my opinion. With the benefit of hindsight, you'd OBVIOUSLY have traded him.

 

[Jopal78]

2 hours ago, UpandIn said:

. 

I still don't buy it was the knee injury that "ruined" Yelich and his power. Maybe that plays a larger factor, but you look at 2020, I think it was more just bad luck. 94 MPH exit velocity, launch angle in between '18 and '19. ISO Slugging pretty high, BABIP took about a 110 point drop.

 

 

Right on! A knee cap is no different than any other broken bone. If it’s fractured into pieces, or the fragments are displaced they do surgery and put in wires, screws and pins to put the bone back together and keep it together in place. 
 

Based on all available reporting, Yelich didn’t have that type of fracture , nor was there damage to the tendons that attach to the patella nor any dislocation (both of which require surgery).

Does his patella bother him today, who knows? Odds are it doesn’t given the severity of the initial injury and the fact the team doctor’s have not taken him to surgery for a knee issue. 
 

 

[edfunderburk]

So, what is your explanation for his immediate & extreme drop off in every measurable statistical category?

[Jopal78]

28 minutes ago, edfunderburk said:

So, what is your explanation for his immediate & extreme drop off in every measurable statistical category?

Could be anything or nothing. He wouldn’t be the first guy to nose dive after turning 30. He wouldn’t be the first player to sandwich two awesome years around some average years. 
 

I just don’t buy into a quasi-conspiracy where he’s hiding a chronic knee injury or he suffered some devastating knee injury from which he never recovered  instead of merely suffering a non-surgical fracture. 

 

[trwi7]

13 minutes ago, edfunderburk said:

So, what is your explanation for his immediate & extreme drop off in every measurable statistical category?

Maybe people just need to accept the fact that outside of one year and a few months this is the hitter he's always been?  Remember, he wasn't that great the 1st half of 2018 and the 1st half of 2018 batted ball data (2.49 GB/FB, 24.3% line drives, 54% ground ball and 21.7% fly balls) is basically around the same as his batted ball data for the rest of his career.  The second half of 2018 and 2019 were the outliers. 

 

Even the biggest optimist about that trade wasn't expecting Yelich to come in and give us 40 bombs and a 1.000+ OPS because not only had he never done it and didn't seem to be that type of hitter, the batted ball data also didn't support it.  Whether it was some mechanical adjustment he made midseason or whatever, I don't know and if it is is there any way to get back to it I don't know either but this could just be a guy who had an amazing season plus where everything went right and pitchers sort of figured him out.

[Hopper]

You can eliminate the "mental" side of that knee injury either.

Is he afraid he'll hurt it again?  Is the fear of another injury weighing on the mental side of his game?

[Axman59]

2 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Right on! A knee cap is no different than any other broken bone.
 

 

It's massively different because it's part of one of the most important joints in an athlete's body. Fractures in a joint can cause arthritis that can become debilitating.

I would know. I stubbed my toe at a swimming pool (it was dark and I did not see a step and swung my foot right into it) and the joint has become arthritic and I've had surgery to remove bone spurs in the joint. I was a marathoner and now the idea of running around the block is daunting.