What's the plan for Kolten Wong next year?

[Robocaller]

3 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

They don't exist? They didn't exist last season either as Jace Peterson was coming off a 95 OPS+ and was a below average defender.

I'd like to think we don't need to resort to "throw **** against the wall and see what sticks" phase. I mean Reyes and Monasterio are decent enough options as AAAA guys, but I don't want to count on one of them.

 

[UpandIn]

2 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

I'd like to think we don't need to resort to "throw **** against the wall and see what sticks" phase. I mean Reyes and Monasterio are decent enough options as AAAA guys, but I don't want to count on one of them.

 

I'm not getting into another protracted argument on here. I simply pointed out that Peterson is having a career year and paying him based on last year...might not be a good idea and that HE himself was the exact player that "didn't exist," at this point last year.

 

[rickh150]

Ridiculous to think we can keep him at this price….

[MrTPlush]

10 hours ago, rickh150 said:

Ridiculous to think we can keep him at this price….

I mean, I don't see why they couldn't. It is $500k less than what they are paying him this year. I am sure we are set for an absolute massive arbitration bill, but we are losing a ton of money off the books. Hader and Cain not being on the team is $25mil by itself. McCutchen is another $8.5mil. Probably save money at catcher and might be the end of Suter.

Yah, a lot of arbitration cases...but we don't have many holes to fill either and means we aren't losing a ton of meaningful pieces. Giving Wong (or some other guy) $8mil makes sense on a tight budget. It is a one year thing and then drops off. What I wouldn't expect is us running out and signing a guy to $8mil+ a year on a big multiyear contract. 

[monty57]

14 hours ago, Robocaller said:

Turang is a utility guy/2B until they move on from Adames. which could be at the trade deadline next year, if the Brewers suck.

Name me one 3B they can sign or acquire cheaply. I'll wait. Unless you're on the dream train with me of signing Arenado, there's not really anyone available better than Peterson.

Name me one available utility guy who can perform as well as Peterson. They don't exist. Brosseau, on the other hand, would be easy to replace. 

 

 

1) There is a big difference between "Utility Guy" and starting 2B. I've acknowledged several times that it is unlikely that Adames will move to 3B. I've just said that Turang at SS, Adames at 3B, Urias/Brosseau at 2B would probably be our best defensive lineup. Barring other moves, it looks to me like Turang will probably be the starting 2B next year, backing up SS when Adames needs a day off.

2) I never said anything about "acquire cheaply." Few good players can be acquired cheaply. I think the Brewers are going to trade some of the guys who are nearing free agency (the Burnes, Woodruff, Adames, Lauer group), and they have a surplus of OF prospects who could be traded. It would make sense to look for a good young corner IF in the trade. Plus, the trade of Hader and the $8M that will probably be saved by not exercising Wong's option will free up some cash to help "fill holes" in the roster. Of course, they can also keep Urias as the starter if they don't find a better option. He's not a good defensive 3B, and he swings for the fences too much, but he had a 112 wRC+ in 2021 and a 105 wRC+ this year, so he's an above average MLB bat.

3) Peterson will likely not "perform as well as Peterson." His career WAR (Fangraph) by year: -0.8, 1.0, 1.1, -0.6, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3, 1.0, 2.3.  He had his career year at age 32. Outside of that, he's been around replacement level. Please tell me what in that line makes you believe he will continue to perform at this year's level. 

4) Brosseau had a 125 wRC+ vs LHP in 2022, and has a 130 wRC+ vs LHP for his career. That looks much more sustainable than Jace Peterson's success. The Brewers have had a hard time vs LHP, so apparently this skill isn't easy to replace. Rather, it is a skill that the Brewers need very much.

[monty57]

21 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

I mean, I don't see why they couldn't. It is $500k less than what they are paying him this year. I am sure we are set for an absolute massive arbitration bill, but we are losing a ton of money off the books. Hader and Cain not being on the team is $25mil by itself. McCutchen is another $8.5mil. Probably save money at catcher and might be the end of Suter.

Yah, a lot of arbitration cases...but we don't have many holes to fill either and means we aren't losing a ton of meaningful pieces. Giving Wong (or some other guy) $8mil makes sense on a tight budget. It is a one year thing and then drops off. What I wouldn't expect is us running out and signing a guy to $8mil+ a year on a big multiyear contract. 

I think the biggest reason the team might exercise Wong's option is that it's a one-year deal. Wong is obviously in his "decline phase," but he's been a solid player through his career, so I think it is a safer bet to believe that Wong will put together one more decent year than it is to believe that Jace Peterson will be good for the next few seasons.

My guess is that neither one will be a Brewer next year, but it's not a slam dunk decision to let Wong go. Meanwhile, the only way they should re-sign Peterson is if the market is a lot softer than I expect. He's going to try to get a multi-year deal based on the 2.3 WAR he's provided so far this year. If someone bites on that, I think they're going to be sorry for doing it.

As to finding some other free agent on a one-year / $8M deal, I'll point to exhibit A: Andrew McCutchen. Wong has a long way to go to decline to that level.

Note: I know that Wong would be paid $10M next year. I use $8M because the Brewers owe him a $2M buyout if they decline his option. Most posters here probably know that, but some people are getting really literal these days, so I thought I'd point this out.

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, monty57 said:

I think the biggest reason the team might exercise Wong's option is that it's a one-year deal. Wong is obviously in his "decline phase," but he's been a solid player through his career, so I think it is a safer bet to believe that Wong will put together one more decent year than it is to believe that Jace Peterson will be good for the next few seasons.

My guess is that neither one will be a Brewer next year, but it's not a slam dunk decision to let Wong go. Meanwhile, the only way they should re-sign Peterson is if the market is a lot softer than I expect. He's going to try to get a multi-year deal based on the 2.3 WAR he's provided so far this year. If someone bites on that, I think they're going to be sorry for doing it.

As to finding some other free agent on a one-year / $8M deal, I'll point to exhibit A: Andrew McCutchen. Wong has a long way to go to decline to that level.

Note: I know that Wong would be paid $10M next year. I use $8M because the Brewers owe him a $2M buyout if they decline his option. Most posters here probably know that, but some people are getting really literal these days, so I thought I'd point this out.

I don't know if Wong is in a "decline phase". His defense has slipped this year, however his offense (.250/.336/.420) indicates he's still getting on base the same as he always has, and is actually hitting with  more power than his career averages (.261/.334/.396).  Wong's offensive performance with Milwaukee across almost 1000 plate appearances has also been consistent with a .262/.336/.435.

As you allude to, it likely depends on if they think they can improve the team reallocating that 8 million dollars elsewhere. Given today's baseball economy its would certainly not  buy them much. Thus, in a way it comes down to if the Brewers believe the devil they know is better than the one they don't. 

As for Jace Peterson, he can be viewed as an example of the small market/Tampa/Oakland team building. The Brewers acquired Peterson for nothing, he was a productive player, but is about to get significantly more expensive. The small market way is to move on from these type of acquisitions, not sink money into a player who is less of a bargain the more expensive he gets.  

 

 

[monty57]

1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

I don't know if Wong is in a "decline phase". His defense has slipped this year, however his offense (.250/.336/.420) indicates he's still getting on base the same as he always has, and is actually hitting with  more power than his career averages (.261/.334/.396).  Wong's offensive performance with Milwaukee across almost 1000 plate appearances has also been consistent with a .262/.336/.435.

Wong's rate stats have benefitted from the platoon this year. Like many lefties, he's always hit RHP (105 wRC+ for career) better than LHP (79 wRC+), but this year the splits were even more dramatic (33 vs LHP, 130 vs RHP). 

As part of a platoon, Wong certainly has value as he hits RHP pretty well, especially for a second baseman. He and Brosseau team up for a really good platoon, at least offensively. For that reason, I would like to see him back.

Unfortunately, Urias seems to be a better 2B than 3B, Turang makes more sense at 2B than 3B, and I've been told to shut up and accept the immutable fact that Adames cannot be moved to 3B, so that puts the team in a bit of a pickle. They have a whole lot of guys who play the middle infield positions, but no one who plays 3B well. Unless someone is traded, exercising Wong's contract just adds to the glut. 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

1 minute ago, monty57 said:

Wong's rate stats have benefitted from the platoon this year. Like many lefties, he's always hit RHP (105 wRC+ for career) better than LHP (79 wRC+), but this year the splits were even more dramatic (33 vs LHP, 130 vs RHP). 

As part of a platoon, Wong certainly has value as he hits RHP pretty well, especially for a second baseman. He and Brosseau team up for a really good platoon, at least offensively. For that reason, I would like to see him back.

Unfortunately, Urias seems to be a better 2B than 3B, Turang makes more sense at 2B than 3B, and I've been told to shut up and accept the immutable fact that Adames cannot be moved to 3B, so that puts the team in a bit of a pickle. They have a whole lot of guys who play the middle infield positions, but no one who plays 3B well. Unless someone is traded, exercising Wong's contract just adds to the glut. 

I have no doubt that Adames would very likely be this team's best 3B. Unfortunately he's also the team's best SS. 

At the end of the day, I don't care where they line up on defense. I just want the best bats in the lineup. So if that means that Adames is a 3B next year, Turang is the SS and Urias is the 2B, that's fine by me. 

[MrTPlush]

I really doubt Jace Peterson is any more expensive than he is now. He is old and his stats are only decent because he doesn't have to face lefties. I really doubt he gets a multi-year deal and if he does it will be some really peasant amount like 2/$6mil. 

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, MrTPlush said:

I really doubt Jace Peterson is any more expensive than he is now. He is old and his stats are only decent because he doesn't have to face lefties. I really doubt he gets a multi-year deal and if he does it will be some really peasant amount like 2/$6mil. 

He's 32, and a 2.4 WAR player so far this year. He's going to double his salary at least and be looking for multiple guaranteed years. He can cite to some nice comps as well. 

Leury Garcia is the same age as Peterson had a 2.4 WAR season last year, then signed for 3/16.5 million

Brad Miller got 2 yrs/10 million from the Rangers last winter. 

Jonathan Villar got 1 year 6 million from the Cubs ($4.5 guarantee and 1.5 million on a buy out of 2023 mutual option). 

 

Which coming back to Kolten Wong, is players like Brad Miller, Jonathan Villar and Leury Garcia are all getting five or six million dollars a year, maybe Wong at 8 million in 2023 isn't such a bad deal after all. 

[MrTPlush]

4 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

He's 32, and a 2.4 WAR player so far this year. He's going to double his salary at least and be looking for multiple guaranteed years. He can cite to some nice comps as well. 

Leury Garcia is the same age as Peterson had a 2.4 WAR season last year, then signed for 3/16.5 million

Brad Miller got 2 yrs/10 million from the Rangers last winter. 

Jonathan Villar got 1 year 6 million from the Cubs ($4.5 guarantee and 1.5 million on a buy out of 2023 mutual option). 

 

Which coming back to Kolten Wong, is players like Brad Miller, Jonathan Villar and Leury Garcia are all getting five or six million dollars a year, maybe Wong at 8 million in 2023 isn't such a bad deal after all. 

Jace Peterson doesn't hold a candlestick to those guy in track record, PAs a year, and he Peterson is way more of a platoon needy guy than them. Maybe his versatility gets him two years...but I would be a little surprised. I guess I would take Wong and less versatility for $8mil over Peterson for $4mil. 

I doubt the Brewers can find a better use of $8mil on a one year deal...but they may cut bait and hope they can.

[Austin Tatious]

Man I hope Wong isn’t back.  Seems like such an easy decision.  Get rid of him.  Play Turang at second.  I have always maintained he’s far better than the average fan in here thinks.  Fans are prisoners to his stats.  He’s always had more upside than his stats have suggested.  

It’s a tough transition and there will be growing pains so keep Urias and another infielder who can help cover second.  

Now Stearns has never given two craps about corner infield but it would be nice to get somebody to cover third.  Maybe it’s going to require a major trade but something has to be done.  Tellez is a mediocrity at first but at least he’s a body there.  Third is a wasteland and Stearns has never had the slightest bit of inclination to solve it once and for all for the long haul.   

If we do make a big trade, and I think we will, please, no more outfielders.  Get corner infield, especially at third, and young pitching with upside.  Knock it off with the 634th outfielder.  The FO looks like they are foaming at the mouth in that regard.  Maybe Yelich at 6’3 is your 1B of the future due to his contract and the space we need for Frelick, Chourio, and Wiemer.   At some point it’s not an academic exercise; you’re trying to field a team that’s well rounded and can stay together and win.   Having a mismatched group of “assets” is an idea, but you have to transform that group into a balanced roster at some point and not just horde minor league outfielders while your corner infield is a desert wasteland.

And please no more past-their-prime name players with a low 700’s ops who are progress stoppers and absorb bloated contracts.  I like that the FO thinks outside the box but it has spectacularly backfired in the last year or two. They’ve taken a team with potentially high end pitching that could have been legitimately contending and accessorized it nonsensically.  Hence, you have a dysfunctional roster that squandered a potentially great opportunity.  This year was never an “oh well, let’s get ‘em next year” proposition.  It’s setting up to be a big failure based on what could have been.

[monty57]

7 hours ago, Austin Tatious said:

Now Stearns has never given two craps about corner infield but it would be nice to get somebody to cover third.  Maybe it’s going to require a major trade but something has to be done.  Tellez is a mediocrity at first but at least he’s a body there.  Third is a wasteland and Stearns has never had the slightest bit of inclination to solve it once and for all for the long haul.   

Agree, but he did seem to care about defense in signing Cain and Wong as his big free agent signings, and drafting guys who play good defense. I don't think the subpar defense this team puts on the field every night is what he wants. 

Something is going to have to be done. Urias has shown to be a poor defender on the left side of the infield. He would probably make a good 2B, so if he isn't going to be the starting 2B here, then the team should probably look to trade him and find a 3B elsewhere. He could be relegated to a "utility guy" role, but I'd see what his trade value is as an everyday player before making that move.

If they can find a legitimate 3B, then a defense with him, Adames and Turang in the infield will be a big improvement, and as the OF prospects start to get more playing time in the major league OF, defense there will improve as well.

Building around pitching and then putting bad defenders on the field just makes no sense.

[NBBrewFan]

2 hours ago, monty57 said:

Agree, but he did seem to care about defense in signing Cain and Wong as his big free agent signings, and drafting guys who play good defense. I don't think the subpar defense this team puts on the field every night is what he wants. 

Something is going to have to be done. Urias has shown to be a poor defender on the left side of the infield. He would probably make a good 2B, so if he isn't going to be the starting 2B here, then the team should probably look to trade him and find a 3B elsewhere. He could be relegated to a "utility guy" role, but I'd see what his trade value is as an everyday player before making that move.

If they can find a legitimate 3B, then a defense with him, Adames and Turang in the infield will be a big improvement, and as the OF prospects start to get more playing time in the major league OF, defense there will improve as well.

Building around pitching and then putting bad defenders on the field just makes no sense.

AND here we are.

The 3rd and 4th ranked Brewers for fWAR are Jace Peterson and Tyrone Taylor.  Yes, the utility players.

The hitters having good years are not so valuable when you include their fielding and baserunning.  Tellez, Renfroe, and Wong are all poster children for why the current roster construction (as you say) "makes no sense". We don't need 6 players (McCutcheon, Hiura, Tellez, Renfroe, Wong and Yelich) who are far better suited to be DH than to get regular reps in the field. You can probably tolerate Renfroe and Tellez if you had upgrades to LF, CF, 3B, and 2B, but with the current mess, the pitching won't be elite until there's multiple upgrades that includes far better defenders.

[monty57]

7 minutes ago, NBBrewFan said:

AND here we are.

The 3rd and 4th ranked Brewers for fWAR are Jace Peterson and Tyrone Taylor.  Yes, the utility players.

The hitters having good years are not so valuable when you include their fielding and baserunning.  Tellez, Renfroe, and Wong are all poster children for why the current roster construction (as you say) "makes no sense". We don't need 6 players (McCutcheon, Hiura, Tellez, Renfroe, Wong and Yelich) who are far better suited to be DH than to get regular reps in the field. You can probably tolerate Renfroe and Tellez if you had upgrades to LF, CF, 3B, and 2B, but with the current mess, the pitching won't be elite until there's multiple upgrades that includes far better defenders.

I'd add Urias into the bad defense mix you mentioned, at least as a 3B or SS. I think he'd be okay at 2B.

Therefore (at least theoretically), much of that could be solved by somehow acquiring a true 3B. Someone who came up as a 3B and knows how to field the position, and hopefully has some idea how to hit. Beyond that, we utilize our existing prospects up as they're ready, and do not give in to the desire to add a "name" player to put in DH.

Defensively, Turang, Adames and whichever OF prospect wins the CF spot should play strong up-the-middle defense. Yelich and Renfroe's defensive deficiencies can be limited if one of them is DH every night, so a corner OF spot goes to a good defender like Mitchell, Frelick or Taylor. Tellez is likely going to be our 1B, but maybe having better defenders throwing the ball to him will help.

We have some guys available to trade, and we should have some money available especially if we don't exercise Wong's option. Stearns seems to find moves no one is thinking about, so somehow, some way, he needs to find a quality 3B for 2023. 

I think that with our pitching (even if one of Burnes/Woodruff are traded), adding good defense and a little more "bat to ball" will go a long ways.

[Robocaller]

On 9/20/2022 at 12:18 PM, MrTPlush said:

I really doubt Jace Peterson is any more expensive than he is now. He is old and his stats are only decent because he doesn't have to face lefties. I really doubt he gets a multi-year deal and if he does it will be some really peasant amount like 2/$6mil. 

He's a no brainer to sign at that rate, but I think he gets more. He's outplayed the  other 3Bs who might be free agents (unless Arenado declines his option). It only takes one GM to want to give him a 4 yr, $40M contract.

[MrTPlush]

18 hours ago, Robocaller said:

He's a no brainer to sign at that rate, but I think he gets more. He's outplayed the  other 3Bs who might be free agents (unless Arenado declines his option). It only takes one GM to want to give him a 4 yr, $40M contract.

Jace Peterson isn't a starter though. Of course he is going to outplay the stat lines of guys who are out there batting 400-500 times. Jace Peterson won't even have 300 ABs. Without doing a ton of digging Jace Peterson pretty much hit to his ceiling this year. He got the advantage of facing lefties less than he did in 2021 and he also hit into luck against them by going way over his career splits. 

To get a 2-year deal and especially one averaging over $5mil a year a team will have to really love the versatility and want a left-handed bat for a platoon. 

Peterson/Wong may have similar offensive output this year, but Wong has to face LHP over 2x as often as Jace does. that is the difference between a starter and bench/platoon player.

 

[monty57]

22 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

Jace Peterson isn't a starter though. Of course he is going to outplay the stat lines of guys who are out there batting 400-500 times. Jace Peterson won't even have 300 ABs. Without doing a ton of digging Jace Peterson pretty much hit to his ceiling this year. He got the advantage of facing lefties less than he did in 2021 and he also hit into luck against them by going way over his career splits. 

To get a 2-year deal and especially one averaging over $5mil a year a team will have to really love the versatility and want a left-handed bat for a platoon. 

Peterson/Wong may have similar offensive output this year, but Wong has to face LHP over 2x as often as Jace does. that is the difference between a starter and bench/platoon player.

 

I didn't realize how sheltered Peterson has been vs LHP. Wong started the year as an everyday player, but they started platooning him because of his poor play this year vs LHP. Even with that, Wong has 92 PA vs LHP, while Peterson only has 34. Last year he had 55. With such a small sample, anything can happen, such as Peterson's 110 wRC+ vs LHP this year, when it was 81 last year.

It's possible that someone sees him as an everyday guy, and even as a platoon player, he could start around 4/5 of the games. But, as I've said before, this year looks like the outlier for his career, and at age 32 players usually don't start getting better. 

If he ends up getting a shorter-term deal (1-2years) at a relatively cheap rate, I'm fine with the Brewers re-signing him. Even then, I think there's a decent chance that he reverts to his normal sub-1 WAR self. That's fine as a "super utility guy" to give other players a rest. It isn't fine if you are signing him to be your everyday third baseman, or even the "big side of the platoon" guy at third.

He did what he did this year, and the 2023 Brewers will have to find a way to get that production from somewhere. I just don't think that they could expect that signing Peterson would mean that he would re-create his 2022 season. It is probably going to be his career year.

[Lou Buell]

I welcomed Wong when the Brewer's signed him because he played so well against us with the Cardinals.  His defensive slide is so surprising after back to back Gold Gloves, with the new rules he should be more of a defensive asset.  Offensively he is still a plus, decent power for his size, solid in the clutch, and can still steal bases and can hit lefties.  It the team does not make the playoffs next years starting lineup will look a lot different.

[Matt Breen]

I think Wong's option is declined because he doesn't provide the defense he once did, and we have someone who appears ready to replace him (Turang), which saves the team $8M. 

Seems pretty simple. 

Here's Turang's splits from the last two years:

2022: BA - .307 vs L, .271 vs R | OPS .741 vs L, .807 vs R
2021: BA - .266 vs L, .255 vs R | OPS .711 vs L, .705 vs R

His splits aren't very dramatic, which means he can play most days. But we should expect some growing pains. Turang hasn't put up big minor league numbers, and has often taken a little time to acclimate at each step. So expect the same going forward. But his 2022 numbers are solid: .285 BA, .360 OBP, 12 HR. He should be a good defender - certainly better than Wong has been this year. 

I expect Milwaukee to have 2-3 rookies playing most days next year - so I expect some struggles. But our defense will be a lot better for it, and if we are patient with our young guys, we could see some big dividends by mid-season.

[UpandIn]

Wonder if they might pick up Wong's option and then look to deal him. If a team's looking for a 2B...1 year 10M for a guy who's put up 5.5 WAR the last two years...this year it's been dragged down by an uncharacteristically bad year defensively.

Not saying we're getting Adley Rutschman back for him, but a team that takes on the full 10M and throws us a 18 year old lottery ticket or a guy who's got a decent fastball in A ball. Surely we should be able to give him away for 10M over just 1 year.

[RedStickBrew]

22 minutes ago, reillymcshane said:

I think Wong's option is declined because he doesn't provide the defense he once did, and we have someone who appears ready to replace him (Turang), which saves the team $8M. 

Seems pretty simple. 

Here's Turang's splits from the last two years:

2022: BA - .307 vs L, .271 vs R | OPS .741 vs L, .807 vs R
2021: BA - .266 vs L, .255 vs R | OPS .711 vs L, .705 vs R

His splits aren't very dramatic, which means he can play most days. But we should expect some growing pains. Turang hasn't put up big minor league numbers, and has often taken a little time to acclimate at each step. So expect the same going forward. But his 2022 numbers are solid: .285 BA, .360 OBP, 12 HR. He should be a good defender - certainly better than Wong has been this year. 

I expect Milwaukee to have 2-3 rookies playing most days next year - so I expect some struggles. But our defense will be a lot better for it, and if we are patient with our young guys, we could see some big dividends by mid-season.

I pretty much agree with this.  I like Wong, but Turang is likely ready to contribute next year.  Turang's Nashville numbers are deflated some by a two month stretch (May and June) where he was struggling.  Since then, his numbers are pretty impressive.  His July OPS was around .975, August was .855, September is a little lower but he has maintained a good OBP.  

Perhaps the $8M saving could go to helping other areas like RP.

It will be interesting to see what they do with the outfielders next year.  They all have pretty much made the case they are MLB ready with their AAA production.

[Robocaller]

9 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

Jace Peterson isn't a starter though. Of course he is going to outplay the stat lines of guys who are out there batting 400-500 times. Jace Peterson won't even have 300 ABs. Without doing a ton of digging Jace Peterson pretty much hit to his ceiling this year. He got the advantage of facing lefties less than he did in 2021 and he also hit into luck against them by going way over his career splits. 

To get a 2-year deal and especially one averaging over $5mil a year a team will have to really love the versatility and want a left-handed bat for a platoon. 

Peterson/Wong may have similar offensive output this year, but Wong has to face LHP over 2x as often as Jace does. that is the difference between a starter and bench/platoon player.

 

but he's also better than them on cumulative stats like WAR, not just rate stats. If they have Adames, Urias, and Turang on the roster, they don't need him to be a full-time starter. Also, he missed 30+ games through injury.

[NBBrewFan]

6 hours ago, UpandIn said:

his year it's been dragged down by an uncharacteristically bad year defensively.

I don't think it's uncharacteristic since he peaked defensively in 2019 and has been getting worse each year since.  Last year he was significantly worse than 2019 and this year the trend continues as he is significantly worse than last year.