Brewcrew82’s 2023 Payroll Blueprint (For Real)

[Brewcrew82]

Kolten Wong, option declined

Brent Suter, non-tendered

Trevor Gott, non-tendered

Blake Treinen, signed for two years at $10 mil AAV

Keston Hiura, traded to Oakland Athletics for A.J. Puk

Danny Jansen, acquired from the Blue Jays for Joey Wiemer, Carlos Rodriguez, and Eduardo Garcia. 

 

• C Danny Jansen ($3.70M)
• 1B: Rowdy Tellez ($5.50M)
• 2B: Brice Turang ($0.70M)
• 3B: Luis Urias ($4.50M)
• SS: Willy Adames ($9.50M)
• LF: Sal Frelick ($0.70M)
• CF: Garrett Mitchell ($0.70M)
• RF: Hunter Renfroe ($11.00M)
• DH: Christian Yelich ($26.00M)
• 4th OF: Tyrone Taylor ($2.00M)
• Utility: Mike Brosseau ($1.00M)
• Utility: Esteury Ruiz ($0.70M)
• Backup C Victor Caratini ($2.80M)
• SP1: Corbin Burnes ($11.50M)
• SP2: Brandon Woodruff ($11.00M)
• SP3: Freddy Peralta ($3.50M)
• SP4: Eric Lauer ($5.00M)
• SP5: Adrian Houser ($3.00M)
• RP: AJ Puk ($0.70M)
• RP: Jake Cousins ($0.70M)
• RP: Matt Bush ($2.00M)
• RP: Aaron Ashby ($1.20M)
• RP: Hoby Milner ($1.00M)
• RP: Peter Strzlecki ($0.70M)
• RP: Blake Treinen ($10.00M)
• RP: Devin Williams ($3.20M)

Payroll is 5.92% under budget,  

[jay87shot]

I feel like that would be an overpay for Jansen, he is solid but I would give up a top 100 prospect and one of our higher potential pitching prospects for 2 years of a slightly above average catcher with a career .223 hitter.  Treinen would be nice but I doubt we would give a guy who only pitched 5 innings 10 million a year to be a set-up (someone else will).

[Brewcrew82]

3 hours ago, jay87shot said:

I feel like that would be an overpay for Jansen, he is solid but I would give up a top 100 prospect and one of our higher potential pitching prospects for 2 years of a slightly above average catcher with a career .223 hitter.  Treinen would be nice but I doubt we would give a guy who only pitched 5 innings 10 million a year to be a set-up (someone else will).

Jansen led all MLB catchers in WRC+ last season. He's more than a "slightly above-average" catcher. I was going based off https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/. Jansen's surplus trade value is 17.8, which requires Wiemer+ to match. 

[Hopper]

uggggh, god I hope that a catcher like Jansen wouldn't require a haul like that.

If so, I'm out!

[Brewcrew82]

13 minutes ago, Hopper said:

uggggh, god I hope that a catcher like Jansen wouldn't require a haul like that.

If so, I'm out!

Jansen is really good (led all catchers in wRC+), we desperately need a catcher, and we have a surplus of outfield prospects. I like Wiemer, but he's just a prospect and has probably the highest variance of anyone in our farm system. You have to give to get. 

[UpandIn]

11 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Jansen led all MLB catchers in WRC+ last season. He's more than a "slightly above-average" catcher. I was going based off https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/. Jansen's surplus trade value is 17.8, which requires Wiemer+ to match. 

I kinda agree. Jansen was good in 248 PAs last year, but for his career, he's 98 WRC+. 

He's a nice catcher...I don't want to give up Wiemer for him. I'd honestly rather run it back with Omar...provided he was cheap. He had a solid walk rate last year, few Ks and his BABIP was .248, over 50 points below his career line.

Wiemer may very well be a bust(they might all...obviously). But his tools are so impressive, I'd rather roll the dice and take 6 years of him and then I'm not sure what Carlos Rodriquez that is. CF is certainly more appealing than the RHPer. Garcia is a lotto ticket I like but wouldn't object to. 

I guess I just don't see it. Jansen had success last year despite an also low BABIP...though his career number is actually .239 and last year he was .255...which may mean he's due to have a HUGE year, but it's just not a move I'd like to see.

[Brewcrew82]

2 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

I kinda agree. Jansen was good in 248 PAs last year, but for his career, he's 98 WRC+. 

He's a nice catcher...I don't want to give up Wiemer for him. I'd honestly rather run it back with Omar...provided he was cheap. He had a solid walk rate last year, few Ks and his BABIP was .248, over 50 points below his career line.

Wiemer may very well be a bust(they might all...obviously). But his tools are so impressive, I'd rather roll the dice and take 6 years of him and then I'm not sure what Carlos Rodriquez that is. CF is certainly more appealing than the RHPer. Garcia is a lotto ticket I like but wouldn't object to. 

I guess I just don't see it. Jansen had success last year despite an also low BABIP...though his career number is actually .239 and last year he was .255...which may mean he's due to have a HUGE year, but it's just not a move I'd like to see.

It doesn't have to be Wiemer. You can probably substitute any one of our AAA OF prospects to headline the deal. But we need upgrades on offense and Jansen provides a great opportunity due to the Jays roster crunch at catcher. We'll have to trade one of our outfielders eventually. 

Narvaez just doesn't hit the ball hard enough. His hard hit metrics are UGLY. 

[UpandIn]

2 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

It doesn't have to be Wiemer. You can probably substitute any one of our AAA OF prospects to headline the deal. But we need upgrades on offense and Jansen provides a great opportunity due to the Jays roster crunch at catcher. We'll have to trade one of our outfielders eventually. 

Narvaez just doesn't hit the ball hard enough. His hard hit metrics are UGLY. 

My problem is Jansen is a career .212/.298/.396 before having a nice partial season last year.

I don't know he really is a big offensive upgrade. 2022 version of him, sure. 

[Brewcrew82]

12 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

My problem is Jansen is a career .212/.298/.396 before having a nice partial season last year.

I don't know he really is a big offensive upgrade. 2022 version of him, sure. 

He's entering his prime and the metrics back up his breakout. He was good in 2021 as well. Compare that to what we got from the catcher position this year. Huge upgrade. 

[Jopal78]

Treinen has a club option for '23 for 8 million. Not likely the Dodgers decline an 8 million dollar option if Treinen is worth 10 million as a free agent. 

As mentioned to you before in other threads, the Athletics wouldn't trade Puk for Hiura straight up. They are not in a position to win '23 so there is not much reason for them to take on salary (Hiura in arb, Puk pre-arb) and then trade away the player with the most team control remaining in the process.

[Brewcrew82]

2 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Treinen has a club option for '23 for 8 million. Not likely the Dodgers decline an 8 million dollar option if Treinen is worth 10 million as a free agent. 

As mentioned to you before in other threads, the Athletics wouldn't trade Puk for Hiura straight up. They are not in a position to win '23 so there is not much reason for them to take on salary (Hiura in arb, Puk pre-arb) and then trade away the player with the most team control remaining in the process.

"As mentioned to me before in other threads"???? This is literally the first time I've even proposed this swap. so not sure what you're talking about there. To be honest, your tone is pretty condescending.

Anyways, I disagree, because hitters are more valuable than relievers, which is all that Puk is at this point. Moreover, if the A's think there's something to Hiura's adjustments at the plate, they might think they can eventually flip him for prospect(s). Moreover, the value lines up evenly per https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/. 

Treinen's precise value is hard to pin down as he was injured for most of this season. I just don't see the Dodgers picking up the option given that they also have some key players set to hit FA. On the open market, it may take something around $10 mil. to get him to come to Milwaukee. 

[Jopal78]

3 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

"As mentioned to me before in other threads"???? This is literally the first time I've even proposed this swap. so not sure what you're talking about there. To be honest, your tone is pretty condescending.

Anyways, I disagree, because hitters are more valuable than relievers, which is all that Puk is at this point. Moreover, if the A's think there's something to Hiura's adjustments at the plate, they might think they can eventually flip him for prospect(s). Moreover, the value lines up evenly per https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/. 

Treinen's precise value is hard to pin down as he was injured for most of this season. I just don't see the Dodgers picking up the option given that they also have some key players set to hit FA. On the open market, it may take something around $10 mil. to get him to come to Milwaukee. 

My bad, it was Nate82. Nate82..Brewcrew82... you see the similarity.

Anyways, Hiura couldn't get off the bench on a mediocre team in '22, obviously his adjustments whatever they were, didn't cure what's wrong with him. But more importantly,  Oakland is just not in a place in the success cycle where it makes any sense for them to trade pre-arbitration eligible pitching for hitters, especially flawed ones like Hiura. As with any team in the midst of a long rebuild, I'm sure they would trade Puk in the right deal, but it won't be for Hiura and certainly not straight up. 

As for Treinen it's simple, if he's worth ten million as a free agent (as you propose) why wouldn't the Dodgers simply exercise their below market club option for 8 million and either  trade him or keep him. Either way they would come out better than they would if they declined his option. 

[jay87shot]

On 10/12/2022 at 12:14 PM, Brewcrew82 said:

Jansen led all MLB catchers in WRC+ last season. He's more than a "slightly above-average" catcher. I was going based off https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/. Jansen's surplus trade value is 17.8, which requires Wiemer+ to match. 

Catchers wear down, Jansen was unconscious to start the year got hurt and than played ok but not out of this world. Take out the 1st month and he is more of who is really should be. Look at Omar's 1st half in 2021, if he got hurt for a month+  at the all-star break he would have had amazing stats. Jansen never had to play more than a couple days in a row with the Jays catching depth. Jansen is a good player but not worth a top 100 prospect. 

[Brewcrew82]

1 minute ago, jay87shot said:

Catchers wear down, Jansen was unconscious to start the year got hurt and than played ok but not out of this world. Take out the 1st month and he is more of who is really should be. Look at Omar's 1st half in 2021, if he got hurt for a month+  at the all-star break he would have had amazing stats. Jansen never had to play more than a couple days in a row with the Jays catching depth. Jansen is a good player but not worth a top 100 prospect. 

Huhh? His best month was September/October, where he had essentially two times at-bats as the first month....Again, led all MLB catchers in wRC+. I'm just going off of https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/, which is known to be used in some capacity by MLB GM's.  

[UpandIn]

8 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Huhh? His best month was September/October, where he had essentially two times at-bats as the first month....Again, led all MLB catchers in wRC+. I'm just going off of https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/, which is known to be used in some capacity by MLB GM's.  

Is there any proof of that? 

That seems...kinda ridiculous. As I pointed out, I could package Tyrone Taylor and Jason Alexander and I'm at close to the same value that you get with Joey Wiemer and Rodriguez and...Jansen. Does anyone think the Jays would take such a deal?

These values seem all over the place. I guess even if they use it, it seems like PFF and NFL Front offices that refer to that. I would doubt they put much stock in it. 

 

As for Jansen...I don't see anything to suggest he slowed down. I don't know how to really put stock into a catcher who hasn't had to play everyday, but it clearly wasn't a fluke month. If anything, he was very unlucky in the 1st half.

[Jopal78]

8 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

. I'm just going off of https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/, which is known to be used in some capacity by MLB GM's.  

Not a chance. 

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

Not a chance. 

Once again, you are wrong. Should do some research before spouting stuff off. From an Athletic article, in addition to other quotes. 

[Brewcrew82]

40 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

Is there any proof of that? 

That seems...kinda ridiculous. As I pointed out, I could package Tyrone Taylor and Jason Alexander and I'm at close to the same value that you get with Joey Wiemer and Rodriguez and...Jansen. Does anyone think the Jays would take such a deal?

These values seem all over the place. I guess even if they use it, it seems like PFF and NFL Front offices that refer to that. I would doubt they put much stock in it. 

 

As for Jansen...I don't see anything to suggest he slowed down. I don't know how to really put stock into a catcher who hasn't had to play everyday, but it clearly wasn't a fluke month. If anything, he was very unlucky in the 1st half.

Yes. there is anecdotal proof. I just provided a screenshot from an Athletic article in my response to another poster. Of course, teams have their own valuation systems that they primarily rely on, but this really isn't that much different. They use it more to "check their work", as the article states. 

You're right the Jays wouldn't accept that deal, but that's because they would want younger (and cheaper) talent. The values aren't static, they go up and down based on production, age, control, etc. For example, Corbin Burnes' median value at the beginning of the year was around 130, but it has now gone down to 78.3 due to the expiration of another year of team control. 

Yeah, not sure where the poster got the idea that Jansen slowed down. He was pretty consistent throughout the season, and had his best month in September/October. 

[UpandIn]

16 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Yes. there is anecdotal proof. I just provided a screenshot from an Athletic article in my response to another poster. Of course, teams have their own valuation systems that they primarily rely on, but this really isn't that much different. They use it more to "check their work", as the article states. 

You're right the Jays wouldn't accept that deal, but that's because they would want younger (and cheaper) talent. The values aren't static, they go up and down based on production, age, control, etc. For example, Corbin Burnes' median value at the beginning of the year was around 130, but it has now gone down to 78.3 due to the expiration of another year of team control. 

Yeah, not sure where the poster got the idea that Jansen slowed down. He was pretty consistent throughout the season, and had his best month in September/October. 

I mean...I hate to be...well, a dick, but that's not really proof. That's a guy saying someone in a front office emailed him to say they used his web site. 

I think that's a good leap from proof that MLB GMs use it. 

I could see them having some intern run it through and if they find a major discrepancy taking another look, OR maybe using this in a back and forth saying, "hey, we're giving up more value here," but...at most. These teams have pretty sophisticated systems and this offers virtually no nuance. 

That Corbin Burnes value would place him in the range of the package the Pads gave up for Soto. If that's the case, I'd have made that trade.

I just remain skeptical. I'm not saying it has no value, but just that it feels closer to the NBA Trade Machine or PFF Mock draft simulator. A little tool mostly for fans.

 

Anyway, love the idea of Jansen, but if giving up someone like Wiemer, I'd want more than 2 years of team control. Though, to be fair, he would line up pretty damn well with Quero. Ruiz would be more palpable to me though. 

[Brewcrew82]

34 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

I mean...I hate to be...well, a dick, but that's not really proof. That's a guy saying someone in a front office emailed him to say they used his web site. 

I think that's a good leap from proof that MLB GMs use it. 

I could see them having some intern run it through and if they find a major discrepancy taking another look, OR maybe using this in a back and forth saying, "hey, we're giving up more value here," but...at most. These teams have pretty sophisticated systems and this offers virtually no nuance. 

That Corbin Burnes value would place him in the range of the package the Pads gave up for Soto. If that's the case, I'd have made that trade.

I just remain skeptical. I'm not saying it has no value, but just that it feels closer to the NBA Trade Machine or PFF Mock draft simulator. A little tool mostly for fans.

 

Anyway, love the idea of Jansen, but if giving up someone like Wiemer, I'd want more than 2 years of team control. Though, to be fair, he would line up pretty damn well with Quero. Ruiz would be more palpable to me though. 

"Anecdotal" proof/evidence, you'll notice I said. You'd be hard-pressed to get a GM to make that declaration on the record. The article is full of other quotes, too, FWIW, like "both armchair and real GM's use John Blitzer's website to get a sense of what returns their teams can expect in actual deals."". And the site has been accurate on 94.8% of actual trades. It's not the Bible for sure, but it's as close as we'll get as fans to the teams' main, non-public valuation systems. 

Actually, Corbin Burnes' current value (78.3) is not even close to the Juan Soto package. Juan Soto's MTV at the time of the trade was 165.6 and the package the Nationals received was worth 143.0. If you're referring to his value earlier in the year of around 130, it seems pretty accurate to me given that Soto and Burnes have the same amount of team control remaining and are among the elite of the elite at their respective positions. 

[UpandIn]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

"Anecdotal" proof/evidence, you'll notice I said. You'd be hard-pressed to get a GM to make that declaration on the record. The article is full of other quotes, too, FWIW, like "both armchair and real GM's use John Blitzer's website to get a sense of what returns their teams can expect in actual deals."". And the site has been accurate on 94.8% of actual trades. It's not the Bible for sure, but it's as close as we'll get as fans to the teams' main, non-public valuation systems. 

Actually, Corbin Burnes' current value (78.3) is not even close to the Juan Soto package. Juan Soto's MTV at the time of the trade was 165.6 and the package the Nationals received was worth 143.0. If you're referring to his value earlier in the year of around 130, it seems pretty accurate to me given that Soto and Burnes have the same amount of team control remaining and are among the elite of the elite at their respective positions. 

Right...I was obviously using the number that would have been in line with the Padres package. And I don't think the Padres would have ever considered that trade. 

Also, I'll just leave it here. I'm just very skeptical. 

You said It's "KNOWN to be used by MLB GMs in some capacity," and you have the creator saying people have told him some FOs do.

It seems to me like you're just giving it credibility based on this anecdotal evidence and said anecdotal evidence is coming from the person who owns a product and is trying to promote it and himself. 

 

[jay87shot]

On 10/13/2022 at 2:37 PM, Brewcrew82 said:

Huhh? His best month was September/October, where he had essentially two times at-bats as the first month....Again, led all MLB catchers in wRC+. I'm just going off of https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/, which is known to be used in some capacity by MLB GM's.  

To be honest, I have always disliked that website. Tyrone Taylor and Joey Weimer are basically the same value. If we could get a top 100 prospect for Taylor he would be gone in a second. Yelich has a negative 122, so we would have to give up like our top 12 prospects not named Chourio to get rid of Yeli for nothing. Also Chouio at 75 has more value than Burnes. Lastly Houser has more value than Lauer. 

I must have been thinking of a different catcher who started hot, my bad should have look. My point stands that he didn't really have a chance to wear down.

[nate82]

20 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

To be honest, I have always disliked that website. Tyrone Taylor and Joey Weimer are basically the same value. If we could get a top 100 prospect for Taylor he would be gone in a second. Yelich has a negative 122, so we would have to give up like our top 12 prospects not named Chourio to get rid of Yeli for nothing. Also Chouio at 75 has more value than Burnes. Lastly Houser has more value than Lauer. 

Yelich numbers are right and I don’t believe they have updated the numbers recently.  The values go up and down based on contract and performance.

Yelich is so far negative because of his contract, no trade clause and performance.  It would take a lot to erase those barriers for a trade so yeah you are going to have to give up a lot just to trade him.  It is also why the Brewers can’t just dump him in a trade.  You would get nothing back.  
 

Burnes will probably get a higher value once they update their values again.  Taylor should decrease a bit and Wiemer looks about right also.

Lauer’s value should increase some and Houser’s will drop mostly because of the injury and performance.

[Brewcrew82]

27 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

To be honest, I have always disliked that website. Tyrone Taylor and Joey Weimer are basically the same value. If we could get a top 100 prospect for Taylor he would be gone in a second. Yelich has a negative 122, so we would have to give up like our top 12 prospects not named Chourio to get rid of Yeli for nothing. Also Chouio at 75 has more value than Burnes. Lastly Houser has more value than Lauer. 

I must have been thinking of a different catcher who started hot, my bad should have look. My point stands that he didn't really have a chance to wear down.

I'll just leave it at this as I've already spent a long time defending the site: it's been accurate on 94.8% of actual trades since its inception. 

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I'll just leave it at this as I've already spent a long time defending the site: it's been accurate on 94.8% of actual trades since its inception. 

Yet, no team has purchased it and made it their property to the exclusion of the other teams, AND the proprietor apparently continues to let MLB teams use it for free despite it being 94.8% accurate. Doesn't wash, but hey whatever maybe baseball is filled with a bunch of idiots after all.