Brewers Acquire Jesse Winker and Abraham Toro from Mariners for Wong

[monty57]

3 minutes ago, nate82 said:

I don't believe Turang will be on the opening day roster with Toro being included in this trade.  I think Toro, Brosseau and Urias will platoon at 3B and 2B to start the year.  I wouldn't be surprised if Urias is the permanent 2B if he is playing well.  Third base could be an issue though with Toro and Brosseau.  I am not sure Turang would be able to fix that as I don't think he profiles all that well at 3B offensively.  I think at best you could have a Mark Loretta type with Turang at 3B though with less power and more speed. 

It maybe best to extend Adames and give him SS money to play 3B and move Turang to SS with Urias at 2B. 

When I first saw who was in this trade, I immediately thought that Toro was the new 3B with Urias moving to 2B. I don't follow the AL too closely, and just remember Toro as a top prospect.

Then I read some posts and looked at Toro's early MLB numbers (913 PA, .206/.276/.345/.621, 75 wRC+) and thought maybe that wouldn't be the case. 

Steamer projects him for a .241/.313/.409/.722 103 wRC+ line. If he could do that and play decent 3B defense, then he could be our starter. He hasn't hit very well so far in his career, but has hit righties better than lefties, so he could pair well with Brosseau.

It will be interesting to see which way the Brewers go. I wouldn't be averse to keeping Turang down in AAA. Save a year's service time, as he will very likely be the starting SS when Adames is traded away, which seems likely prior to the '24 season.

Toro seems to be the throw-in to this trade, but if he can live up to the potential he had a couple seasons ago, this trade would be a home run win for the Brewers, and he could be our starting 3B for the next handful of seasons.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

26 minutes ago, nate82 said:

For Super Two Status for 2022 it is set at 2.128 years of service time.  So I think around June would put them in a safe spot to get that extra year of service time. 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/super-two-status-set-at-2-128-years-of-service.html

We won't know what 2023 will be set at until November of '23. 

 

I don't believe Turang will be on the opening day roster with Toro being included in this trade.  I think Toro, Brosseau and Urias will platoon at 3B and 2B to start the year.  I wouldn't be surprised if Urias is the permanent 2B if he is playing well.  Third base could be an issue though with Toro and Brosseau.  I am not sure Turang would be able to fix that as I don't think he profiles all that well at 3B offensively.  I think at best you could have a Mark Loretta type with Turang at 3B though with less power and more speed. 

It maybe best to extend Adames and give him SS money to play 3B and move Turang to SS with Urias at 2B. 

In the end, does it really matter if Turang doesn't provide 3B-type power if you are getting it from Adames at SS and Urias at 2B? It isn't set in stone that 3B has to be a power position. Cirillo certainly wasn't a huge source of power, and is one of the best 3B in Brewers history.  

[DR28]

22 minutes ago, nate82 said:

For Super Two Status for 2022 it is set at 2.128 years of service time.  So I think around June would put them in a safe spot to get that extra year of service time. 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/super-two-status-set-at-2-128-years-of-service.html

We won't know what 2023 will be set at until November of '23. 

 

I don't believe Turang will be on the opening day roster with Toro being included in this trade.  I think Toro, Brosseau and Urias will platoon at 3B and 2B to start the year.  I wouldn't be surprised if Urias is the permanent 2B if he is playing well.  Third base could be an issue though with Toro and Brosseau.  I am not sure Turang would be able to fix that as I don't think he profiles all that well at 3B offensively.  I think at best you could have a Mark Loretta type with Turang at 3B though with less power and more speed. 

It maybe best to extend Adames and give him SS money to play 3B and move Turang to SS with Urias at 2B. 

I see a lot of this Adames to 3B talk, has he ever said he's willing to move to 3B?

[brewcrewdue80]

32 minutes ago, nate82 said:

For Super Two Status for 2022 it is set at 2.128 years of service time.  So I think around June would put them in a safe spot to get that extra year of service time. 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/super-two-status-set-at-2-128-years-of-service.html

We won't know what 2023 will be set at until November of '23. 

 

I don't believe Turang will be on the opening day roster with Toro being included in this trade.  I think Toro, Brosseau and Urias will platoon at 3B and 2B to start the year.  I wouldn't be surprised if Urias is the permanent 2B if he is playing well.  Third base could be an issue though with Toro and Brosseau.  I am not sure Turang would be able to fix that as I don't think he profiles all that well at 3B offensively.  I think at best you could have a Mark Loretta type with Turang at 3B though with less power and more speed. 

It maybe best to extend Adames and give him SS money to play 3B and move Turang to SS with Urias at 2B. 

You gain the year when there's only 171days left in season. 172 is full. 2nd week of June should just keep from being a Super 2 already gained the year some 40-50 days before.

Oh man doing all this RoY research and from what I seen, it didn't look like Baseball America even had Frelick on a top 100 list. I thought Turang was a top 100(like 96/98th) but MLB currently doesn't have him on there.  Wiemer and Chourio are the only 2 I can confirm on 2 lists atm. ESPN list Im not subscribing and don't know their top 100.

All this is draft pick/Roy concern won't be known til preseason top 100s of those 3 come out.

[monty57]

55 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

In the end, does it really matter if Turang doesn't provide 3B-type power if you are getting it from Adames at SS and Urias at 2B? It isn't set in stone that 3B has to be a power position. Cirillo certainly wasn't a huge source of power, and is one of the best 3B in Brewers history.  

For me, it isn't so much the power, it's that he's supposed to be a plus defender at SS. You're willing to give up some offense to have a great defensive SS. Not so much at 3B.

As I mentioned previously, if we have another option, I'd be fine with keeping Turang in AAA until a spot opens up at SS. Adames is probably only here for the '23 season. If Adames gets extended, then you find a spot for Turang. Otherwise, there's no reason to force the square peg into the round hole.

[nate82]

43 minutes ago, DR28 said:

I see a lot of this Adames to 3B talk, has he ever said he's willing to move to 3B?

No he hasn't said anything as I don't believe it has been brought up.  I am assuming he would want starting SS money to make the move.  The same happened with Machado I believe when he moved from SS to 3B. 

52 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

In the end, does it really matter if Turang doesn't provide 3B-type power if you are getting it from Adames at SS and Urias at 2B? It isn't set in stone that 3B has to be a power position. Cirillo certainly wasn't a huge source of power, and is one of the team's best 3B in its history.  

Turang at 3B offensively I would be fine with.  Defensively he fits better at 2B/SS. 

24 minutes ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

You gain the year when there's only 171days left in season. 172 is full. 2nd week of June should just keep from being a Super 2 already gained the year some 40-50 days before.

Oh man doing all this RoY research and from what I seen, it didn't look like Baseball America even had Frelick on a top 100 list. I thought Turang was a top 100(like 96/98th) but MLB currently doesn't have him on there.  Wiemer and Chourio are the only 2 I can confirm on 2 lists atm. ESPN list Im not subscribing and don't know their top 100.

All this is draft pick/Roy concern won't be known til preseason top 100s of those 3 come out.

On June 1st it would give him 126 days on the roster from June 1st to the end of the season.  That would be cutting it close I think.  So yeah maybe the 2nd week of June would definitely keep him from being a Super 2. 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

3 minutes ago, monty57 said:

For me, it isn't so much the power, it's that he's supposed to be a plus defender at SS. You're willing to give up some offense to have a great defensive SS. Not so much at 3B.

As I mentioned previously, if we have another option, I'd be fine with keeping Turang in AAA until a spot opens up at SS. Adames is probably only here for the '23 season. If Adames gets extended, then you find a spot for Turang. Otherwise, there's no reason to force the square peg into the round hole.

But Adames is a solid to + defender at SS as well. 

[monty57]

1 hour ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

But Adames is a solid to + defender at SS as well. 

Yes he is. That is why I'm fine with Turang in AAA to start the season. Even if we go with our current roster and don't make any additional moves, we could go with Tellez at 1B, Urias at 2B, Adames at SS, and Toro/Brosseau at 3B to start the season.

We'd probably need to pick up an inexpensive vet who could backup shortstop. Turang would be called up if Adames missed an extended period.

I wouldn't get upset if Turang is starting at 2B or 3B, but I also wouldn't be upset if they go with the above scenario, or pick up another 3B, leaving Turang at AAA. He'll get his shot, and I wouldn't mind saving an extra year of service time. 

[Hopper]

1 hour ago, monty57 said:

Yes he is. That is why I'm fine with Turang in AAA to start the season. Even if we go with our current roster and don't make any additional moves, we could go with Tellez at 1B, Urias at 2B, Adames at SS, and Toro/Brosseau at 3B to start the season.

We'd probably need to pick up an inexpensive vet who could backup shortstop. Turang would be called up if Adames missed an extended period.

I wouldn't get upset if Turang is starting at 2B or 3B, but I also wouldn't be upset if they go with the above scenario, or pick up another 3B, leaving Turang at AAA. He'll get his shot, and I wouldn't mind saving an extra year of service time. 

Problem is, being fine with the above line-up offers no improvement over last year.  None.

Add that to not having a catcher, and at least 2 rookies in the outfield along with Yelich, that offensive alignment could quite possibly be even worse than last year.  (Especially since we lost 2 of our best bats in Renfroe and Wong and have not replaced their offense)

We simply need to add a big bat to that infield (3B), and I have almost zero faith that is going to happen.

[DR28]

29 minutes ago, Hopper said:

Problem is, being fine with the above line-up offers no improvement over last year.  None.

Add that to not having a catcher, and at least 2 rookies in the outfield along with Yelich, that offensive alignment could quite possibly be even worse than last year.  (Especially since we lost 2 of our best bats in Renfroe and Wong and have not replaced their offense)

We simply need to add a big bat to that infield (3B), and I have almost zero faith that is going to happen.

Yea I dont see us adding big bat.... Either Toro or Urias will be our 23 3B.

[SF70]

5 hours ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

You gain the year when there's only 171days left in season. 172 is full. 2nd week of June should just keep from being a Super 2 already gained the year some 40-50 days before.

Oh man doing all this RoY research and from what I seen, it didn't look like Baseball America even had Frelick on a top 100 list. I thought Turang was a top 100(like 96/98th) but MLB currently doesn't have him on there.  Wiemer and Chourio are the only 2 I can confirm on 2 lists atm. ESPN list Im not subscribing and don't know their top 100.

All this is draft pick/Roy concern won't be known til preseason top 100s of those 3 come out.

Frelick is #68 on Baseball America’s top 100. Probably will shoot on up the list when their new rankings come out this offseason. 

[UpandIn]

15 hours ago, Robocaller said:

You can send him down during the season if it's clear he's not going to be top 3, to control his service time. You can always use the "we want him to get more regular playing time, or work on X" as the excuse.

 

Sure...that's another good point. That's why I just don't see the it's either opening day or the trade deadline for Frelick.

I don't think we can afford to really play around. We're putting so many chips in the Burnes/Woodruff/Adames basket, you can't go most of the season without what very well could be our best hitter in terms of BA and OBP(*COULD be). 

[rickh150]

20 hours ago, sveumrules said:

July 31?

You didn’t think the team was blah when they were going 25-27 for the two months leading into the deadline after the franchise best 32-18 start?

Hader lost 4 games with an 8.31 ERA over 19 appearances during that stretch.

I’d say that is notably worse than blah.

Tough to be blah when in first place. The selling began on July 31. It was loud and clear. And Hader still somehow outperformed our scrap heap in deadline trade returns, which managed to lead the league in blown saves over the last two months with some gift money to Rosenthal to celebrate the Cards winning the division..

[Brewcrew82]

14 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

And Hader still somehow outperformed our scrap heap in deadline trade returns, which managed to lead the league in blown saves over the last two months with some gift money to Rosenthal to celebrate the Cards winning the division..

Hader w/ Padres: 7.31 ERA, -1.0 WAR

Rogers w/ Brewers: 5.48 ERA, -0.5 WAR

Bush w/ Brewers: 4.30 ERA, -0.4 WAR

Hader didn't outperform our "scrap heap" in deadline trade returns. 

[sveumrules]

11 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

Tough to be blah when in first place.

Maybe if all you do is watch the standings.

It certainly didn’t feel like I was watching a first place club while they were going 25-27 during the two months prior to the deadline.

It felt kind of the same as watching them go 29-31 after the deadline.

[Redd Vencher]

33 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

Tough to be blah when in first place. The selling began on July 31. It was loud and clear. And Hader still somehow outperformed our scrap heap in deadline trade returns, which managed to lead the league in blown saves over the last two months with some gift money to Rosenthal to celebrate the Cards winning the division..

Rogers outpitched Hader post trade.

[UpandIn]

8 hours ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

Just gotta finish top 2.  How many more days missed does he need to avoid that potential? 138days for Rutschman got him to 2nd.  You're likely waiting 3 more weeks for Super 2 avoidance, but is that enough? What if all those top guys are also kept back til then?  Lemme go look at Roy the last decade or 2.

 

Okay. Winners last 15 years latest dates started 3 from AL- Wil Myers June 18th 88gms played, Carlos Correa June 8th 99gms played, Yordan Alvarez June 9th 87gms played. There were a few just over 100games. But Frelick playing 100 or more games must mean they started him Opening Day.

I'll have to see on 2nd place finishers the 3 latest starts, but you gotta be thinking based on the 3 winners you aren't giving Frelick over 75games played if you didn't begin him on Opening day.

Live updating.

Gary Sanchez finished 2nd 53gms played, TreaTurner 2nd 73gms played both in 2016. Lindor finished 2nd with 99games played to Correa.

 

Oh and I mention trade deadline for 40man roster implications. You don't play Frelick before deadline you save 1 on the 40man for moves while also insuring he doesn't finish top 2. I guess in reading on this, if any top 100 prospect had below 60days this year, they would still qualify for opening day Roy for 2024. That means....

 

There's a few points on here I don't get.

"Just gotta finish top 2?"

I think it's top 3 for an eligible player. 

 

And I don't think Frelick playing over 100 games means he started the season on the active roster. Just as likely means he...became the starter and then the everyday player once they gained an extra year. 

You're really limiting the ROY list by only counting the guys finished 2nd. I mean...there's a wide range of games he could play without being on the OD roster. Could play 113 as Braun did after being a Super 2, could play 134 after gaining the extra year like Bryan Reynolds did...

[brewcrewdue80]

22 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

There's a few points on here I don't get.

"Just gotta finish top 2?"

I think it's top 3 for an eligible player. 

 

And I don't think Frelick playing over 100 games means he started the season on the active roster. Just as likely means he...became the starter and then the everyday player once they gained an extra year. 

You're really limiting the ROY list by only counting the guys finished 2nd. I mean...there's a wide range of games he could play without being on the OD roster. Could play 113 as Braun did after being a Super 2, could play 134 after gaining the extra year like Bryan Reynolds did...

I took this from mlb site posted back a page-

Any player with less than 60 days of MLB service coming into the season who placed on at least two preseason Top 100 prospect lists at Baseball America, ESPN or MLB Pipeline now receives a full year of service time if they finish in the top two in Rookie of the Year balloting

 

The top 3 is draft pick compensation.(if on Opening day roster+on 2 top 100 lists)

Top 2 is player's awarded full year service time.

[Robocaller]

7 hours ago, monty57 said:

For me, it isn't so much the power, it's that he's supposed to be a plus defender at SS. You're willing to give up some offense to have a great defensive SS. Not so much at 3B.

But if the same three guys are playing 2B-SS-3B, their offense doesn't matter regarding where they play in the field. It used to be that SS were mostly slap-hitting defense-first players, but that doesn't apply any more.

[UpandIn]

2 hours ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

I took this from mlb site posted back a page-

Any player with less than 60 days of MLB service coming into the season who placed on at least two preseason Top 100 prospect lists at Baseball America, ESPN or MLB Pipeline now receives a full year of service time if they finish in the top two in Rookie of the Year balloting

 

The top 3 is draft pick compensation.(if on Opening day roster+on 2 top 100 lists)

Top 2 is player's awarded full year service time.

Yeah, I got that, I just didn't understand why you worded it like that. "Just gotta finish top 2," sounds like it's more about draft pick compensation to me, but...ok.

Cleveland should be getting one for Kwan, an top prospect who probably makes top 100 lists if he's drafted higher as he produced all the way through the minors. 

[StearnsFTW]

3 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Hader w/ Padres: 7.31 ERA, -1.0 WAR

Rogers w/ Brewers: 5.48 ERA, -0.5 WAR

Bush w/ Brewers: 4.30 ERA, -0.4 WAR

Hader didn't outperform our "scrap heap" in deadline trade returns. 

These facts are getting in the way of the pissing and moaning.

[rickh150]

6 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Hader w/ Padres: 7.31 ERA, -1.0 WAR

Rogers w/ Brewers: 5.48 ERA, -0.5 WAR

Bush w/ Brewers: 4.30 ERA, -0.4 WAR

Hader didn't outperform our "scrap heap" in deadline trade returns. 

Gave up multiple runs three times in August, including a 6ER outing which balooned his ErA… didn’t give up a earned run the last month of season. Blew two saves and a loss in August. Saved 7 and a win… gave up 4 hits and 2 walks in last 11 outings, including 13 Ks.
Hader gets us in the playoffs in 2023, IMO.

[Redd Vencher]

9 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

Gave up multiple runs three times in August, including a 6ER outing which balooned his ErA… didn’t give up a earned run the last month of season. Blew two saves and a loss in August. Saved 7 and a win… gave up 4 hits and 2 walks in last 11 outings, including 13 Ks.
Hader gets us in the playoffs in 2023, IMO.

Rogers 24 G 23.0 IP 5.48 ERA 7/10 SVHLD 17 scoreless, four 1 run, and three 4 run.

Hader 19 G 16.0 IP 7.31 ERA 7/9 SVHLD 14 scoreless, two 1 run, two 3 run, and one 6 run. Was shutdown for 2 weeks in August as well.

Mosr of the blown saves occurred before the 8th inning, so having Hader doesn't solve that. 17 BS in 14 G with a 3-11 record in those games. Brewers were 2 games under .500 the 2 months before the Hader trade and 2 games under .500 post trade. The Hader trade didn't sink the season.

[Brewcrew82]

13 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

Gave up multiple runs three times in August, including a 6ER outing which balooned his ErA… didn’t give up a earned run the last month of season. Blew two saves and a loss in August. Saved 7 and a win… gave up 4 hits and 2 walks in last 11 outings, including 13 Ks.
Hader gets us in the playoffs in 2023, IMO.

It doesn't matter. It's all part of the record. You said he outperformed them. He literally didn't. That's just revisionism. If you take any relief pitcher's worst outings out of the equation, their numbers will obviously look much better. 

Again, we were under .500 from Labor Day to the deadline. That was WITH Hader. We then proceeded to win at the exact same pace without him. So, no, not having Hader didn't cost us the playoffs. 

[Brewcrew82]

6 minutes ago, Redd Vencher said:

Rogers 24 G 23.0 IP 5.48 ERA 7/10 SVHLD 17 scoreless, four 1 run, and three 4 run.

Hader 19 G 16.0 IP 7.31 ERA 7/9 SVHLD 14 scoreless, two 1 run, two 3 run, and one 6 run. Was shutdown for 2 weeks in August as well.

Mosr of the blown saves occurred before the 8th inning, so having Hader doesn't solve that. 17 BS in 14 G with a 3-11 record in those games. Brewers were 2 games under .500 the 2 months before the Hader trade and 2 games under .500 post trade. The Hader trade didn't sink the season.

Thank you! The argument you are responding to is what the historians call "revisionism". Amazing how the Hader trade has warped some peoples' minds. 

Nobody is saying it proved to be a success, but let's at least stick to the facts here.