Rumor: Twins Shopping Batting Champion Arraez for Pitching

[jonescm128]

Arraez seems like a quintessential Brewers player. Versatility, control, and great bat to ball skills. Would give a lot of flexibility in the infield with Arraez, Urias, Turang. I wonder if an Eric Lauer would do it? 

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[wibadgers23]

Yeah, my first thought was Lauer for Arraez.  Seems like a good match.  Arraez is an absolute on base machine and the Brewers appear to be targeting high on base guys at this point.

[Brock Beauchamp]

No way does Lauer get the job done for Arraez. The Twins already have a slew of guys like Lauer, they're looking for a step above him.

[DR28]

Yea not a chance on Lauer... They'll want Burnes or Woodruff.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Just now, DR28 said:

Yea not a chance on Lauer... They'll want Burnes or Woodruff.

And that means the Twins will need to offer more than just Arraez.

Which could work out for both teams, really.

[nate82]

2 minutes ago, jonescm128 said:

Arraez seems like a quintessential Brewers player. Versatility, control, and great bat to ball skills. Would give a lot of flexibility in the infield with Arraez, Urias, Turang. I wonder if an Eric Lauer would do it? 

 

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I don't believe he would.  Arraez is about a 2 or 3 win player.  That should give him a value of about $15m in surplus value while Lauer is about a 1-2 win player which gives you about $4m in surplus value.  That is a $11m difference even if you up the amount on Lauer as he is a pitcher you would need to nearly triple his value for a one-to-one trade to work. 

I don't see the Brewers and Twins lining up anymore.  I thought they lined up perfectly last year before the Brewers traded for Renfroe.  

I also think the Twins would be looking at Woodruff or Ashby and not Lauer or Houser.  A Woodruff deal with Arraez in it would need to include more like Kirilloff and someone like Matt Canterino. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 minutes ago, nate82 said:

I also think the Twins would be looking at Woodruff or Ashby and not Lauer or Houser.  A Woodruff deal with Arraez in it would need to include more like Kirilloff and someone like Matt Canterino. 

This sounds about right in Kirilloff. I think the Brewers would have to really like what they see in Canterino to do that deal. Personally, I'd want a nicer second piece than Canterino.

[StearnsFTW]

Woodruff for Arraez & Duran.

 

Take it or leave it Twins.  I suspect they'd leave it.

 

[nate82]

Just now, Brock Beauchamp said:

This sounds about right in Kirilloff. I think the Brewers would have to really like what they see in Canterino to do that deal. Personally, I'd want a nicer second piece than Canterino.

Canterino would be the third piece in the deal.  Would be Arraez, Kirilloff and Canterino which gets you close to Woodruff's value maybe replace Canterino with another pitching prospect. 

But does that really make the Twins better?  I don't think the Twins will get what they want with just Arraez they will need to include more to get someone better than what they already have. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Canterino would be the third piece in the deal.  Would be Arraez, Kirilloff and Canterino which gets you close to Woodruff's value maybe replace Canterino with another pitching prospect. 

But does that really make the Twins better?  I don't think the Twins will get what they want with just Arraez they will need to include more to get someone better than what they already have. 

Yeah, I'm not sure that makes the Twins all that much better. Really depends if they get a top SS or not.

But I think the Twins would be loathe to sell so low on Kirilloff. He's a top flight prospect if he ever gets his wrist sorted out.

[Nate Palmer]

If pitching was a desired return instead of a bat, the trade machine likes this one. 

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, Nate Palmer said:

If pitching was a desired return instead of a bat, the trade machine likes this one. 

BTV has Woodruff wayyyyy undervalued. No reason why Burnes should have more than double Woodruff's surplus value. 

[Brewcrew82]

I'll gladly take Arraez off the Twins' hands. But I'm not giving up Burnes or Woodruff to do so. He's got a limited skillset (granted, a high-level one) and is only under control for three more seasons...

[Brock Beauchamp]

3 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

BTV has Woodruff wayyyyy undervalued. No reason why Burnes should have more than double Woodruff's surplus value. 

Yeah, I do not understand how BTV is grading out Burnes and Woodruff in comparison to one another.

[Brewcrew82]

2 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Yeah, I do not understand how BTV is grading out Burnes and Woodruff in comparison to one another.

Exactly. The better measure of Woodruff's value is the Castillo trade. And Woodruff is a better pitcher than Castillo...

[Hopper]

2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

This sounds about right in Kirilloff. I think the Brewers would have to really like what they see in Canterino to do that deal. Personally, I'd want a nicer second piece than Canterino.

Your fandom confuses me.  lol

Who holds your heart, the Twins or Brewers?  Seems your thoughts on any kind of trade between the Brewers and Twins would be quite murky and confusing.

[Brock Beauchamp]

8 minutes ago, Hopper said:

Your fandom confuses me.  lol

Who holds your heart, the Twins or Brewers?  Seems your thoughts on any kind of trade between the Brewers and Twins would be quite murky and confusing.

Eh, I don't really have a strong rooting interest in one over the other. I guess I lean Twins a bit but seeing the Brewers win their FIRST World Series would be awesome. And at this point, I'm really just pulling for the Twins to win ONE playoff game.

And in deals like this, I try to evaluate the players objectively and find comparable value. Canterino's a fine prospect and all but I think he's more likely to become a good bullpen piece than a good starter.

[Jose Cardenal]

How about Eric Lauer and Garrett Mitchell for Arraez.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

Just now, JoseCardenal2 said:

How about Eric Lauer and Garrett Mitchell for Arraez.  

Welcome to the site!

The Twins aren't going to have much interest in Lauer. They already have a rotation full of pitchers of his caliber. The Twins are aiming higher than that, they already have the depth.

[LakeshoreLarry]

Back in October I suggested this trade:  Brewers receive: Arraez, Ober and Kirilloff  (39.9 on BTV) for Renfroe and Woodruff (37.8).  Renfroe's value was zero.  It got a lot of down votes on the Brewers side because Renfroe was also included in the trade and Kirilloff's injury history. So, with Renfroe already traded may I suggest Hiura and Woodruff, or Brewers might have to offer Tellez and Woodruff for the same 3 Twins players.  Of course, the next question is:  Who's on first?  Hopefully a trade for Yandy Diaz or Joey Meneses for example might work.

[brewmann04]

The twins want young arms. Ashby and Mitchell or Ruiz 

[Brock Beauchamp]

14 hours ago, LakeshoreLarry said:

Back in October I suggested this trade:  Brewers receive: Arraez, Ober and Kirilloff  (39.9 on BTV) for Renfroe and Woodruff (37.8).  Renfroe's value was zero.  It got a lot of down votes on the Brewers side because Renfroe was also included in the trade and Kirilloff's injury history. So, with Renfroe already traded may I suggest Hiura and Woodruff, or Brewers might have to offer Tellez and Woodruff for the same 3 Twins players.  Of course, the next question is:  Who's on first?  Hopefully a trade for Yandy Diaz or Joey Meneses for example might work.

That's a pretty fair deal and I would snatch that up if I was the Brewers. I think the Twins would be more likely to balk at that because Kirilloff is in the deal. He has had some freak IL stints (his wrist bone was literally too long and had to be shaved down). While he's certainly an unknown quantity - wrist injuries can really be hard to overcome - if you saw this guy hit while he was healthy, you'd badly want him on your team. He's just an all-around incredible bat. Good contact, good average, decent discipline, good power. He has the potential to perennially be one of those .290/.350/.450 guys we just don't see in baseball much anymore.

[nate82]

Just now, Brock Beauchamp said:

That's a pretty fair deal and I would snatch that up if I was the Brewers. I think the Twins would be more likely to balk at that because Kirilloff is in the deal. He has had some freak IL stints (his wrist bone was literally too long and had to be shaved down). While he's certainly an unknown quantity - wrist injuries can really be hard to overcome - if you saw this guy hit while he was healthy, you'd badly want him on your team. He's just an all-around incredible bat. Good contact, good average, decent discipline, good power. He has the potential to perennially be one of those .290/.350/.450 guys we just don't see in baseball much anymore.

Weeks was never the same after his wrist injury.  Wrist injury's can kill a players power as you can't make the twitch movement as fast with your hands to catch up to 90+ mph fastballs. 

Even with that if I am the Brewers I am willing to take on that risk in trading Woodruff for Kirilloff.

 

The Twins will need to include more than Arraez to get something more than a #3 type pitcher.  Actually I am not even sure there is a #3 type pitcher out there on the trade market.  If the Twins are shopping Arraez and just Arraez they are going to have to sell low on Arraez and get someone like Lauer or Houser.  I don't think the Twins are going to find what they are looking for by shopping Arraez and they will need to include someone like Kirilloff to be able to make a deal happen.  I think best case scenario for the Twins would be a Arraez for Garrett trade with the Marlins.  I am not sure the Marlins would be interested in Arraez but that is literally the only fit I could find where it is just Arraez and not including someone like Kirilloff in a trade package. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, nate82 said:

Weeks was never the same after his wrist injury.  Wrist injury's can kill a players power as you can't make the twitch movement as fast with your hands to catch up to 90+ mph fastballs. 

Even with that if I am the Brewers I am willing to take on that risk in trading Woodruff for Kirilloff.

The Twins will need to include more than Arraez to get something more than a #3 type pitcher.  Actually I am not even sure there is a #3 type pitcher out there on the trade market.  If the Twins are shopping Arraez and just Arraez they are going to have to sell low on Arraez and get someone like Lauer or Houser.  I don't think the Twins are going to find what they are looking for by shopping Arraez and they will need to include someone like Kirilloff to be able to make a deal happen.  I think best case scenario for the Twins would be a Arraez for Garrett trade with the Marlins.  I am not sure the Marlins would be interested in Arraez but that is literally the only fit I could find where it is just Arraez and not including someone like Kirilloff in a trade package. 

I fully agree the Twins won't get a top flight starter for Arraez alone. It's going to require someone else in the deal and that player will need to be legitimately promising.

And the more I think about it, Kirilloff just isn't a good fit for the Brewers anyway. He's left-handed, plays meh LF, and is really a good first baseman. That's not a profile the Brewers really need right now given their plethora of OF prospects and the fact something will need to be done with Yelich.

[Robocaller]

Since this is MN, home of Prince, Let's Go Crazy!

Woodruff and Adames

for

Arraez

Ober

Thielbar

C. Prielipp

R. Lewis.

By BTV, this is slightly in the Twins favor 79.1 vs 78.9