Contreras to Cardinals - 5 years, $87 million

[Brewcrew82]

5 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

That series wasn’t close at all! Haha. Plus one of his “big homers” was in a loss…. Who cares.

The series was fairly close. If we hold onto a lead in game 4, which was given to us by Tellez, it goes to 5 games.

Regardless, how was that trade not a win for us considering what Tellez has provided for us and what we ended up giving to the Jays?

[Jopal78]

59 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

The series was fairly close. If we hold onto a lead in game 4, which was given to us by Tellez, it goes to 5 games.

Regardless, how was that trade not a win for us considering what Tellez has provided for us and what we ended up giving to the Jays?

Tellez  hasn’t made the team noticeably better (They we’re already way out in front when they added Tellez in ‘21 and they took a step backwards in ‘22 with him for a full year). How is that not a lateral move, regardless of whom they traded? That’s the point. 
 

[Brewcrew82]

23 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Tellez  hasn’t made the team noticeably better (They we’re already way out in front when they added Tellez in ‘21 and they took a step backwards in ‘22 with him for a full year). How is that not a lateral move, regardless of whom they traded? That’s the point. 
 

You don't think this offense would have struggled even more had we not had Tellez? I certainly think so. Especially when the alternative was Hiura who put up a negative WAR in that timeframe with an obscene number of strikeouts. Not exactly a "lateral" move...

Plus, the story is not yet entirely written with Tellez as he still has two years of control and is set to be one of the biggest beneficiaries in the majors of the shift ban with his stellar hard hit numbers. Something like what Steamer has him projected for (123 wRC+) would be huge for the offense. 

[82brewcrew82]

41 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Tellez  hasn’t made the team noticeably better (They we’re already way out in front when they added Tellez in ‘21 and they took a step backwards in ‘22 with him for a full year). How is that not a lateral move, regardless of whom they traded? That’s the point. 
 

LOL.  Trades are evaluated based on the production acquired and the production given up.  When looking at Richards and Francis, Tellez makes the team noticeably better without question.  Tellez was not responsible for the regression of, and injuries to, the pitching staff.  The FOs inability to acquire more talent or any other variable that has nothing to do with the Tellez trade.

[Robocaller]

12 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

And the chances of that happening are.....?? Binelas' AA numbers don't exactly inspire a ton of confidence that he'll defy the odds. 

22.2%

[Jopal78]

On 12/10/2022 at 1:44 PM, Brewcrew82 said:

You don't think this offense would have struggled even more had we not had Tellez? I certainly think so. Especially when the alternative was Hiura who put up a negative WAR in that timeframe with an obscene number of strikeouts. Not exactly a "lateral" move...

Plus, the story is not yet entirely written with Tellez as he still has two years of control and is set to be one of the biggest beneficiaries in the majors of the shift ban with his stellar hard hit numbers. Something like what Steamer has him projected for (123 wRC+) would be huge for the offense. 

The guy blasted 35 homers yet didn’t crack a .775 OPS, which tells me he hits homers and not much else…. and is most likely why he was available in the first place.
 

We can agree to see things differently. In my view, Tellez  is a Brewer because he’s still relatively cheap at a position where they have no other real options , but that does not change that he’s “just a guy;” which is exactly what the two players were whom they gave up to get him.

[Hopper]

Cardinals now in on Rodon.

?

[82brewcrew82]

47 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

The guy blasted 35 homers yet didn’t crack a .775 OPS, which tells me he hits homers and not much else…. and is most likely why he was available in the first place.
 

We can agree to see things differently. In my view, Tellez  is a Brewer because he’s still relatively cheap at a position where they have no other real options , but that does not change that he’s “just a guy;” which is exactly what the two players were whom they gave up to get him.

A guy with negative war and one that will never sniff the majors, those two don't even arise to "just a guy" status.  Either way, Tellez is a significant improvement over a guy with negative war and a career minor leaguer.  I don't disagree with your evaluation of Tellez, he is certainly replaceable but that wasn't the question at hand.

[brewcrewdue80]

1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

The guy blasted 35 homers yet didn’t crack a .775 OPS, which tells me he hits homers and not much else…. and is most likely why he was available in the first place.
 

We can agree to see things differently. In my view, Tellez  is a Brewer because he’s still relatively cheap at a position where they have no other real options , but that does not change that he’s “just a guy;” which is exactly what the two players were whom they gave up to get him.

Tellez would see a small rise in BA which increases OB&slg without the shift. He wasn't too bad facing it compared to straight up but he faced the shift 70+pct of time.

Statcast had him for just over 800OPS expected and he is just over 800 expected for his career.

His problem is he was listed at 1(worst) for speed last year. That obviously contributes to why the low BA vs expected.

Tellez has a 20% k rate, far better than Carter's 33pct career rate. 

Last, 1b has been a black hole around baseball. You would think it'd be loaded  but only 9 had above 800. 4 above 850 2 above 900.  Tellez was 15th. Stats for who qualified.  Reduce it to min 400PAs Josh Naylor jumps just ahead of Tellez for 15th and Tellez is 16th.  

It's fairly clear if I was working for Milw's analytics, Rowdy would see his upcoming contract have a bonus if he kept his weight below 230 X amount of days and 240 X amount of days. That BABIP might just improve above bottom 3Worst.

[rickh150]

On 12/10/2022 at 11:53 AM, sveumrules said:

It’s a deep and troubling downturn to you that the Brewers missed the playoffs by two games to teams whose payrolls were $25M (STL), $50M (ATL), $95M (SD), $115M (PHI), and $140M (NY/LA) more than theirs?

I’d say that’s just baseball happening.

That the Brewers are even in a position to be competitive with teams that have much greater spending capacity on payroll (& everything else too) is much more of a success than missing out on the playoffs by two games after four straight appearances is any kind of failure.

The Giants went from an NL best 107 wins in 2021 to 81 wins in 2022 while spending $40M more than us on payroll.

The Red Sox went from the ALCS in 2021 to 5th in the ALE (below even the lowly Orioles) while spending $80M more than us on payroll.

The White Sox went from winning their division in 2021 down to 81 wins in 2022 while spending $75M more than us on payroll.

The Nationals have been the 2nd worst team in baseball the last three years since winning the WS, trading away Scherzer, Soto and Turner during that stretch.

I’d say those downturns are significantly deeper than the Brewers missing the playoffs by two games with the deck stacked against them.

The troubling part is that we seem to not add lately but subtract. In this window of having great starting pitchers, capitalizing on this paramount..  Even this year thus far and it hasn’t started yet…. We are not adding these highly ranked prospects either with our trades for future seasons. Marginal players. 

I agree that the Brewers have the deck stacked against them with all this money everywhere. We have been overachieving since 2017, when we also barely missed the playoffs. Agreed. Still disappointing…missing opportunities, I feel.