Twins, Marlins Agree To Trade Involving Luis Arraez, Pablo Lopez

[DR28]

2 other prospects going to Minnesota.

[Brewcrew82]

Nice. Cardinals miss out on a TOR pitcher. Only remaining option for them is Bauer. 

Also, congrats @Brock Beauchamp. 

[Brewcrew82]

OMG, how are the Twins getting two prospects back, too? This is William Contreras type robbery...

[Brock Beauchamp]

Yeah, I don’t know how the Twins got prospects in this deal.

Say what you will about the Twins front office but they sure ain’t boring.

[monty57]

32 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

OMG, how are the Twins getting two prospects back, too? This is William Contreras type robbery...

While I like the Twins' side of the trade more, I'll try to justify it:

Lopez has two years of control remaining. He has posted 5.8 Baseball-Reference WAR over the past two years, so I'll assume 5.8 WAR over the next two years.

Arraez has three years of control remaining. He has posted 6.2 WAR over the past two years, so I'll assume 9.3 WAR over his remaining three years. Salas is the better of the prospects, ranked #5 in the Marlins' system by MLB.com. He's only 19, and like many prospects struggled a bit when promoted to A+ Beloit (.659 OPS in 191 ABs). The 17-year-old Chourio was not on MLB.com's list of Top 30 prospects for the Marlins, but posted an .838 OPS in the Dominican Summer League.

So basically, to even out the extra year of the better MLB player, the Marlins had to add a talented 19-year-old and a lottery ticket. That's quite a bit for the extra 3.5 or so WAR the Marlins are likely to get from Arraez, but then again, the prospects are still a long-ways from the majors and the Marlins will probably turn around and trade Arraez away in a yearor two and get a bunch of prospects back.

Twins get 5.8 WAR from Lopez and prospects, Marlins get 6.2 WAR from Arraez and trade his final year away for prospects.

[wiguy94]

Like this trade for the Twins. I'm not as high on Lopez as most (durability concerns and home/road splits), but still glad Lopez isn't goint to St. Louis.

[Outlander]

I actually like this deal for the Marlins, a little smoke and mirrors with Lopez. Would take my chances on Arraez accumulating 9 WAR over Lopez 6 WAR plus the prospects ever amounting to anything.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, Outlander said:

I actually like this deal for the Marlins, a little smoke and mirrors with Lopez. Would take my chances on Arraez accumulating 9 WAR over Lopez 6 WAR plus the prospects ever amounting to anything.

I like it the other way around. I'm not infatuated with Lopez or anything but Arraez's knees feel like a ticking time bomb and any knee issue causes his bat to decline in a hurry. He has been prone to going from hitting .340 to .280 overnight, largely due to his knees, and is largely ineffectual against LHP.

I say this as a person who LOVES Luis Arraez. There's literally no one I'd rather watch in the batter's box, he's an absolute riot. But from a pure baseball perspective, I think this is a good move by the Twins.

I also wish Arraez all the luck in the world in Miami.

[sveumrules]

Apparently after this deal Marlins are planning to play…

Arraez (best position 1B) at 2B
Wendle (best position 2B) at SS
Segura (best position 2B) at 3B
Chisolm (best position 2B) at CF

[CheeseheadInQC]

Am I the only one who double-checked that this wasn’t another brother of Jackson and Jaison?

Talent wise this might be close, but it definitely feels like a much cleaner fit for the Twins.

[Brewcrew82]

41 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Apparently after this deal Marlins are planning to play…

Arraez (best position 1B) at 2B
Wendle (best position 2B) at SS
Segura (best position 2B) at 3B
Chisolm (best position 2B) at CF

They really should trade for a premium fielding talent such as Garrett Mitchell or Brice Turang and give us Edward Cabrera in return…

[SRB]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

Apparently after this deal Marlins are planning to play…

Arraez (best position 1B) at 2B
Wendle (best position 2B) at SS
Segura (best position 2B) at 3B
Chisolm (best position 2B) at CF

The Phillies made it to (but lost) the World Series last season with an entire roster of 1B/DH's, so building a an entire roster of 2B's is what Miami needs to put them over the edge.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

Am I the only one who double-checked that this wasn’t another brother of Jackson and Jaison?

I first heard his name about a month ago in a Marlins podcast and forgot to check if he was a brother of Jackson. 

[sveumrules]

1 hour ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

Am I the only one who double-checked that this wasn’t another brother of Jackson and Jaison?

Talent wise this might be close, but it definitely feels like a much cleaner fit for the Twins.

Had the same thought & it looks like Byron was born one day after Jaison in a different VZ city.

That would be a pretty crazy twins story.

[sveumrules]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

They really should trade for a premium fielding talent such as Garrett Mitchell or Brice Turang and give us Edward Cabrera in return…

Turang would give them the legit defensive SS they’re currently lacking for sure.

Between the Marlins dire SS situation and Red Sox losing Story, Boras might just get a bidding war going for Elvis Andrus.

[BlightyBrew]

10 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Apparently after this deal Marlins are planning to play…

Arraez (best position 1B) at 2B
Wendle (best position 2B) at SS
Segura (best position 2B) at 3B
Chisolm (best position 2B) at CF

Sounds like a Stearns roster construction.

[Devinep]

3 hours ago, BlightyBrew said:

Sounds like a Stearns roster construction.

Clancyphile would consider this amateur ha

[nate82]

I think the Twins won this trade and by a lot.  I am not that high on Arraez and think he is a bit overrated. 

[sveumrules]

7 hours ago, BlightyBrew said:

Sounds like a Stearns roster construction.

Not sure I follow, from 2017-22 the Brewers were at +55.7 UZR (5th), +56.4 FRM (3rd), +58 OAA (6th) and +189 DRS (4th).

Stearns and company have always placed an emphasis on defense.

[Redd Vencher]

23 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Turang would give them the legit defensive SS they’re currently lacking for sure.

Between the Marlins dire SS situation and Red Sox losing Story, Boras might just get a bidding war going for Elvis Andrus.

They acquired Amaya in the Rojas trade.

[Brock Beauchamp]

On 1/21/2023 at 10:10 AM, nate82 said:

I think the Twins won this trade and by a lot.  I am not that high on Arraez and think he is a bit overrated. 

If he's healthy, he's not overrated. He's an elite contact bat with good discipline.

The problem is that his knees routinely prevent him from being healthy and when he starts gimping around, he loses a bunch of batting average, like .050+ loss.

I think it was a pretty fair trade with a bit more value going to the Twins, though I also like the trade from the Marlins perspective. They really needed a table-setter bat like Arraez.