NL Central Discussion

[nate82]

People still believe the Cardinals are a threat to win the division?

The Cardinals have shown nothing that they are a threat to win the division let alone becoming a .500 win team.

[rickh150]

3 hours ago, nate82 said:

People still believe the Cardinals are a threat to win the division?

The Cardinals have shown nothing that they are a threat to win the division let alone becoming a .500 win team.

Key word is threat… I think to some that is one thing and something altogether different to another.
Me?
Is it still possible.? Yes, of course.
Is it likely or even probable? No, of course not.
So the possibility to me is 10% or so… 1 out of 10.
So this is still a threat… to me. 
I still feel the Brewers, Cubs, and Cards will finish in top 3.

 

[brewcrewdue80]

We are about to play 13 straight games vs Pit(3)  Chi(4) Cin (6)  Will go a long way determining if they'll be buyers or sellers.  Not to mention, after that they play Phi/Atl/Cin again/Atl finishing on July 30th. 

They won't play Cin again to finish the season after those 9 games.  3 or 4 wins I'd assume selling is in order.  5 or more they'd buy.  

[nate82]

Still waiting on that Cardinals run they were supposed to go on……….

Wainwright looks like he should have retired and probably should retire by the all star break.

The Cardinals like I have said previously are the 2013 Brewers all offense and no pitching.

[StearnsFTW]

If the Cardinals win 75 games they should throw a parade.

[nate82]

The Cardinals are currently 11.5 games back for a wild card spot and 9.5 games back for the NL Central.  The Cardinals would need to go 21-6 from here on out to just get above .500 by the end of July.  Is that possible?  Sure but it is not likely to happen that would be a 1-100 chance of that happening. 

Basically the Giants, Phillies, Brewers and Reds would have to play close to a 72 win pace all while the Cardinals play at a 120 win pace. 

The Cardinals have dug a hole and they are not getting out of it.  They have only one month of winning baseball and that was in May at 15-13 and currently sit at 8-15 for the month of June.  If they lose tomorrow against the Yankees that puts them at 8-16 and even a win puts them at 9-15.  While the Brewers are 14-12 so far with a game against the Pirates.  The worst the Brewers have done so far is in the month of May at 11-16.  The Brewers would have to play absolutely horrible in the month of July for the Cardinals to even have a chance at coming back and being competitive in the division. 

While the Brewers schedule in July looks to be rather brutal they would have to go 8-18 in their next 26 games and the Reds would have to go 7-20 which would be near impossible as the Brewers and Reds play each other 9 times.  Lets say it goes 5-4 that means 5 or 4 wins would be the majority of their victories for their last set of games. 

The math just doesn't work for the Cardinals to become a threat in the NL Central and it makes even less sense for a wild card spot.

The one team that the Cardinals could jump in the NL Central would be the Cubs as they play them 8 times.  The only easy part of the Cardinals schedule is against the Cubs (8), Nationals (3) and the White Sox (3).  The Cardinals would need to sweep the 6 games against the Nationals and White Sox while losing no more than 2 against the Cubs.  So the Cardinals would have to go 12-2 against the Cubs, White Sox and Nationals.  Then picking up 9 wins against the Yankees (3), Marlins (6) and dbacks (3).  Which means they have to sweep at least one of those series and wouldn't and could only lose 3 games total to go 9-3 in those games.  Again this is just not probable and no the Cardinals are not going to be trading players from their farm system for a team that is currently 14 games under .500. 

[Brewcrew82]

I'm ready to call it. 2023 St. Louis Cardinals, TOD: 6/29/23, 21:30 CST. 

The Cardinals don't have the pitching to make the sort of run they'd need to at this point. 

[rickh150]

18 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I'm ready to call it. 2023 St. Louis Cardinals, TOD: 6/29/23, 21:30 CST. 

The Cardinals don't have the pitching to make the sort of run they'd need to at this point. 

Good ol Fangraphs still have Cards at 9.1% to make playoffs STILL…. I’m Not convinced yet, especially with who is ahead of them. The division winner could realistically be 83-85 wins with NL Central playing less games in division this year, getting beat up by East and West. I won’t be calling them done before the break either. Still too early.

[Brewcrew82]

22 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

Good ol Fangraphs still have Cards at 9.1% to make playoffs STILL…. I’m Not convinced yet, especially with who is ahead of them. The division winner could realistically be 83-85 wins with NL Central playing less games in division this year, getting beat up by East and West. I won’t be calling them done before the break either. Still too early.

You're one of the few remaining holdouts, a la. the Japanese in the 1950s/60s. 

The math isn't there, nor is the pitching. 

[rickh150]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

You're one of the few remaining holdouts, a la. the Japanese in the 1950s/60s. 

The math isn't there, nor is the pitching. 

Again, it happened for them in 2011, and the odds were way more dire. Not even the All Star Break. It’s likely over for them, yes. But way to early to eliminate them. 
Remaining holdouts? You are looking to build a consensus that it is zero percent likely that the Cards make the playoffs? I think your lone call of zero % is the first.

[nate82]

4 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

Again, it happened for them in 2011, and the odds were way more dire. Not even the All Star Break. It’s likely over for them, yes.

Completely different scenarios.  In 2011 they only had to catch the Braves and weren't 14 games under .500. 

[rickh150]

Just now, nate82 said:

Completely different scenarios.  In 2011 they only had to catch the Braves and weren't 14 games under .500. 

Waaaay tougher in 2011 on Sept. 1 for them to get in than now. I agree. Completely different. And now there are 3 Wild Cards.

[wiguy94]

2 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

Waaaay tougher in 2011 on Sept. 1 for them to get in than now. I agree. Completely different. And now there are 3 Wild Cards.

The Cardinals suck dude. They have zero intent on actually winning at this point and trotting a completely washed Wainwright out there every 5 days so he can get to 200 wins is all the evidence needed to prove they have no intent on winning at this point.

[rickh150]

7 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

The Cardinals suck dude. They have zero intent on actually winning at this point and trotting a completely washed Wainwright out there every 5 days so he can get to 200 wins is all the evidence needed to prove they have no intent on winning at this point.

So you are a zero % guy too? That is what you are saying? 

[nate82]

9 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

Waaaay tougher in 2011 on Sept. 1 for them to get in than now. I agree. Completely different. And now there are 3 Wild Cards.

Actually it was easier for the Cardinals in 2011 the percentages maybe different but the number of teams the Cardinals had to run down for the wild card spot was 1.  Right now even with that 3rd wild card spot the Cardinals are 11.5 games behind.  On June 30th in 2011 the Cardinals were only 3 games back of the Braves for the Wild Card and were actually tied with the Brewers for the NL Central lead at 44-38.  Which is an easier one to come back from 11.5 games behind or 3 games behind?

[rickh150]

5 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Actually it was easier for the Cardinals in 2011 the percentages maybe different but the number of teams the Cardinals had to run down for the wild card spot was 1.  Right now even with that 3rd wild card spot the Cardinals are 11.5 games behind.  On June 30th in 2011 the Cardinals were only 3 games back of the Braves for the Wild Card and were actually tied with the Brewers for the NL Central lead at 44-38.  Which is an easier one to come back from 11.5 games behind or 3 games behind?

We are talking Sept. 1, 2011 compared to now…..you are so off that you change the date to June 30, 2011?

[nate82]

1 minute ago, rickh150 said:

We are talking Sept. 1, 2011 compared to now…..you are so off that you change the date to June 30, 2011?

They were only 8.5 games out on September 1st 2011.  Which is bigger 11.5 games or 8.5 games back?

[rickh150]

2 minutes ago, nate82 said:

They were only 8.5 games out on September 1st 2011.  Which is bigger 11.5 games or 8.5 games back?

So you have two months to make up three games… your argument is getting stranger. Cards have much better odds now than then…about 10 times more likely now. Yet, yes it is against huge odds. Just not zero.

 

[nate82]

5 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

So you have two months to make up three games… your argument is getting stranger. Cards have much better odds now than then…about 10 times more likely now. Yet, yes it is against huge odds. Just not zero.

 

The reason the Cardinals have better odds now is because there are more games to be played.

Your argument makes no sense at all.  Why are you comparing something near the end of the season compared to about the middle of the season?  You see the issue with your comparison?

Your comparison is just nonsensical.  

[Brewcrew82]

On 6/19/2023 at 2:04 PM, rickh150 said:

Sept. 1, 2011…. Out 10.5 games of wild card….Odds of Cards making playoffs= 1.7%  Fangraphs

JUNE 19, 2023…. Cards out 8.5 games for division, 10 for Wild Card….. Odds of making playoffs 28.8%… odds of winning the World Series THIS YEAR…1.7% Fangraphs

This isn't even correct. The Cardinals were 8.5 games out of the WC on 9/1/11. 

Give me a link for the fangraphs% you got from 2011 because I haven't been able to find it. 

[rickh150]

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/social-media/st-louis-cardinals-2011-world-series/5kcjsch2ylrjby4r#:~:text=On September 1%2C the Cardinals,of going all the way.

[wiguy94]

7 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/social-media/st-louis-cardinals-2011-world-series/5kcjsch2ylrjby4r#:~:text=On September 1%2C the Cardinals,of going all the way.

Why are you continuing to compare the 2011 team to a team that is 14 games under .500 on July 1st and has one of the worst pitching staffs in the MLB?

[rickh150]

11 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

This isn't even correct. The Cardinals were 8.5 games out of the WC on 9/1/11. 

Give me a link for the fangraphs% you got from 2011 because I haven't been able to find it. 

 

12 minutes ago, nate82 said:

The reason the Cardinals have better odds now is because there are more games to be played.

Your argument makes no sense at all.  Why are you comparing something near the end of the season compared to about the middle of the season?  You see the issue with your comparison?

Your comparison is just nonsensical.  

Way worse odds for Cards on Sept. 1 in 2011 than now to make playoffs… that team won the WS.
So not zero percent now for Cards to make playoffs. 

[rickh150]

3 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Why are you continuing to compare the 2011 team to a team that is 14 games under .500 on July 1st and has one of the worst pitching staffs in the MLB?

Fangraphs has them at 8.5% now… I think this is about right. I disagree with the zero %.

[nate82]

9 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

Way worse odds for Cards on Sept. 1 in 2011 than now to make playoffs…

You obviously don’t understand basic math let alone odds.