NL Central Discussion

[BruisedCrew]

1 minute ago, 82brewcrew82 said:

All of that is true but they are going to have to play a whole lot better than they have and they have shown zero indication that they can.

No doubt they have to play a whole lot better.

[Jopal78]

3 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Where are you getting above average bullpen and 3 average starting pitchers from?

Cards bullpen has been one of the worst in the MLB this year and Helsley is on the IL with forearm tightness. 
 

Mikolas and Flaherty are not average SP. Their ERA- are both below league average and their xERA and peripheral batted numbers are well below league average. Montgomery is their only SP who is average or better  
 

ERA +
Montgomery 110, Mikolas 99, Flaherty 93.

Gallegos 111, Hicks 105, Stratton 101, VerHagen 100.

For contrast Freddy Peralta has an ERA+ of 93… cue the “But ERA+ isn’t accurate, doesn’t account for X,etc etc”

 

[wiguy94]

9 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

ERA +
Montgomery 110, Mikolas 99, Flaherty 93.

Gallegos 111, Hicks 105, Stratton 101, VerHagen 100.

For contrast Freddy Peralta has an ERA+ of 93… cue the “But ERA+ isn’t accurate, doesn’t account for X,etc etc”

 

That's 1 average SP not 3 like you said. I've also seen nobody say Freddy is an above average pitcher this season.

Two above average RP by ERA+ doesn't make an above average bullpen. Good relievers typically carry ERA+ far above 100. 

For comparison's sake here is the Brewers bullpen by ERA+

DW - 227

Payamps - 172

Wilson - 152

Milner - 144

Peguero - 156

Megill - 129

Strzelecki - 88

Here is Cincinnati's bullpen which is average by WPA.

Diaz - 257

Farmer - 204

Gibaut - 140

Young - 169

Sims - 171

That Cardinals bullpen is just flat out bad.

[82brewcrew82]

26 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

ERA +
Montgomery 110, Mikolas 99, Flaherty 93.

Gallegos 111, Hicks 105, Stratton 101, VerHagen 100.

For contrast Freddy Peralta has an ERA+ of 93… cue the “But ERA+ isn’t accurate, doesn’t account for X,etc etc”

 

If you can use stats you like, others can use stats they like.  Either way, you didn't prove the point you wanted to..  Those numbers do not reflect a good pitching staff.

[brewcrewdue80]

18 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

One of the Cardinals "league average SP" has already given up 3 runs in the 1st inning against the incredible Washington Nationals offense!

I blame Burnes 1st inning yesterday on you. Clearly Burnes is below average SP now.

[brewcrewdue80]

On Cardinals and 2011-today. More teams can make playoffs then in 2011. So that last seen 12% is putting that in to the equation.  Every worry that their team will have a hot stretch ignores a team like Cincy having a 9game and counting win streak. What does it matter when the Brewers or Cubs match that win output a week or 2 earlier or later than the stretch forthcoming by the Cards. A's won 7 straight iirc. Did it get to 8?  

When will this Brewers team get run scoring production from Winker/his replacement if DFA, Adames and Tellez again? All three are well over 1month of batting below even the lowest of preseason projections. Yet they continue to bat in top half of the lineups.

Both Peralta and Burnes have underperformed their pitching expectations while Miley and Teheran exceed. It's sitting right there for this team to have another 18-20win month with the players you expect to produce yet continue to disappoint. 

Frelick is playing and could be interjected in to the ML lineup here shortly. That may spark the offense him leading off with current bat Yelich 3rd. 

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

I blame Burnes 1st inning yesterday on you. Clearly Burnes is below average SP now.

It’s funny though, because it demonstrates the tight rope Burnes has to walk every time he takes the ball.

 

Last night Flaherty gave up 5 runs in the first two innings but then rebounded and pitched into the 7th, the bats bailed him out and he got the W.

Burnes gave up six in the first innings then rebounded but it was already game over .

[rickh150]

1 hour ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

On Cardinals and 2011-today. More teams can make playoffs then in 2011. So that last seen 12% is putting that in to the equation.  Every worry that their team will have a hot stretch ignores a team like Cincy having a 9game and counting win streak. What does it matter when the Brewers or Cubs match that win output a week or 2 earlier or later than the stretch forthcoming by the Cards. A's won 7 straight iirc. Did it get to 8?  

When will this Brewers team get run scoring production from Winker/his replacement if DFA, Adames and Tellez again? All three are well over 1month of batting below even the lowest of preseason projections. Yet they continue to bat in top half of the lineups.

Both Peralta and Burnes have underperformed their pitching expectations while Miley and Teheran exceed. It's sitting right there for this team to have another 18-20win month with the players you expect to produce yet continue to disappoint. 

Frelick is playing and could be interjected in to the ML lineup here shortly. That may spark the offense him leading off with current bat Yelich 3rd. 

12%= Odds of Cards Playoff birth in 2023 on June 19

1.7%= Odds of Cards Playoff birth in 2011 on Sept. 1

We are talking playoff birth here… way harder for Cards on Sept. 1 in 2011 to make playoffs than now. There is no debate on this one point.  

[brewcrewdue80]

6 hours ago, rickh150 said:

12%= Odds of Cards Playoff birth in 2023 on June 19

1.7%= Odds of Cards Playoff birth in 2011 on Sept. 1

We are talking playoff birth here… way harder for Cards on Sept. 1 in 2011 to make playoffs than now. There is no debate on this one point.  

The debate is 2011 playoff teams were 4 from each league. Today it's 6 teams. Looked at 2011 team and they were .500 and better from 9-9 that season.  This 2023 team is now 13games Below .500.  73games in to the season.  The only reason they have any playoff chance is because the division leader is 3games over .500 on an 84.4win total on the season. Not 90games like 2011. 

The date you start at they were on pace for 85.76 wins. 

2023 Cards now sit at a 66.58 win pace. I'll take 4.25 wins and luck outperform for 1 month vs 17.82 wins in last 89games/3months.

They had 7.5games behind Atl and 8.5games Milw.  That's it. 5th best record(tied) in the NL on that date. 

They are 5th in the division needing to jump 4teams. Not just 1 out of 2 collapsing.

Atl on that date should have won 96games. They underperformed 7games vs the +5 by Stl. 

 

[Jopal78]

Reds designated Wil Myers for assignment eating what remains on his 8.75 million dollar contract. Myers hit .189/.237/.283.

Jesse Winker and his nearly identical stat line feel the heat. .200/.312./.250  and making 8.25 million.
 

The Reds, another small market team, in direct competition with the Milwaukee Brewers decided they can no longer afford to carry a high priced player who under performed all year and was injured,  a certain wake up call for Winker

[homer]

3 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Reds designated Wil Myers for assignment eating what remains on his 8.75 million dollar contract. Myers hit .189/.237/.283.

Jesse Winker and his nearly identical stat line feel the heat. .200/.312./.250  and making 8.25 million.
 

The Reds, another small market team, in direct competition with the Milwaukee Brewers decided they can no longer afford to carry a high priced player who under performed all year and was injured,  a certain wake up call for Winker

Myers is 32 and has had one decent year since he was a rookie and that was the year cut short by Covid. 

Winker is 29 and has had one bad year since his rookie year. Yeah he has been absolutely horrible this year but not exactly apples to apples.

(And 8.25 million is not high priced.)

[bulldogboy0733]

10 minutes ago, homer said:

Myers is 32 and has had one decent year since he was a rookie and that was the year cut short by Covid. 

Winker is 29 and has had one bad year since his rookie year. Yeah he has been absolutely horrible this year but not exactly apples to apples.

(And 8.25 million is not high priced.)

If Myers can hit lefties at all pick him up.

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, homer said:

Myers is 32 and has had one decent year since he was a rookie and that was the year cut short by Covid. 

Winker is 29 and has had one bad year since his rookie year. Yeah he has been absolutely horrible this year but not exactly apples to apples.

(And 8.25 million is not high priced.)

Jesse winker may not be high price in the realm of major league players, but he is the fourth or fifth  highest paid Milwaukee Brewer. 

Dump on Wil Myers if you want who, has had just one good year in your purview yet has amassed a 12.7 career bwar in 3800 PAs while supporting Jesse Winker (who has had only one bad year) who has less than half of Myers’ bwar at 4.6 career in 1800 PAs if you like, but it is and apples to apples comparison. 
 

 

[Fear The Chorizo]

Reds' recent hot streak and debate about when devil magic kicks in for the Cardinals have both overshadowed the Cubs, who have been playing much better of late and are the lone team in the NL Central sporting a positive run differential.  That's a team with decent enough pitching to go on a sustained tear with better offense, and they could also be looking to add pitching and hitting at this year's deadline to separate themselves a bit from the rest of a seemingly muddled pack.

For all the love the Reds are getting with their hot streak, it still has barely gotten them over 0.500 and their pitching has allowed 20 MORE runs than the Cardinals.  There are still plenty of holes on Cincy's roster to expect an extended bad stretch for them as randomly as this 10 game win streak showed up.

The Pirates appear to be going off the rails as fast as the Reds have gotten hot, and the Brewers seemingly are treading water as other NL Central teams take turns jumping over and then plummeting back under them in the standings.

[DR28]

51 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Reds' recent hot streak and debate about when devil magic kicks in for the Cardinals have both overshadowed the Cubs, who have been playing much better of late and are the lone team in the NL Central sporting a positive run differential.  That's a team with decent enough pitching to go on a sustained tear with better offense, and they could also be looking to add pitching and hitting at this year's deadline to separate themselves a bit from the rest of a seemingly muddled pack.

For all the love the Reds are getting with their hot streak, it still has barely gotten them over 0.500 and their pitching has allowed 20 MORE runs than the Cardinals.  There are still plenty of holes on Cincy's roster to expect an extended bad stretch for them as randomly as this 10 game win streak showed up.

The Pirates appear to be going off the rails as fast as the Reds have gotten hot, and the Brewers seemingly are treading water as other NL Central teams take turns jumping over and then plummeting back under them in the standings.

Idk about that... Reds pitching has been good during this now 11 game win streak, they have a damn good bullpen... Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft and Abbott make up one hell of a rotation... Yes I know 3 of these guys are on IL.

[wiguy94]

5 minutes ago, DR28 said:

Idk about that... Reds pitching has been good during this now 11 game win streak, they have a damn good bullpen... Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft and Abbott make up one hell of a rotation... Yes I know 3 of these guys are on IL.

Ashcraft has shown nothing yet in his MLB career to be listed with those other names.

[DR28]

14 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Ashcraft has shown nothing yet in his MLB career to be listed with those other names.

Ok fair enough... Greene, Lodolo and Abbott then... Those are 3 young strikeout SPs.

[brewcrewdue80]

Let's chat about Reds here. They beat up on a 3rd game started rookie Atl pitcher that somehow squeaks in top 100mlb rankings with a 60-55-45-45 overall 55? His 2 seasons prior were 5+ERA. Braves brought him up after 7 good starts this year. Surprise 3.2 5R votto hit 2 HRs. De la Cruz a cycle. Most of the rest nada. Votto's 3R HR was after 2 Hit batters. 

Reds allowed 10runs. Kudos 12game win streak. how many wins/record did Tampa start with? 13. Opened 29-7 and just 23-19 since.  They'll revert to their talent and start playing 18-24 ball. They have 27 comeback wins, a RP who's 8-1 with a fip over 5. They can't sustain what they've accomplished. SPs putting them behind and bullpen outperforming Fip with offense coming back to win. They do look like they have a lock down closer. De la Cruz is doing great through 15games. Let's see when pitchers adjust once finding a weakness how well he continues. 

[SF70]

8 hours ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

Let's chat about Reds here. They beat up on a 3rd game started rookie Atl pitcher that somehow squeaks in top 100mlb rankings with a 60-55-45-45 overall 55? His 2 seasons prior were 5+ERA. Braves brought him up after 7 good starts this year. Surprise 3.2 5R votto hit 2 HRs. De la Cruz a cycle. Most of the rest nada. Votto's 3R HR was after 2 Hit batters. 

Reds allowed 10runs. Kudos 12game win streak. how many wins/record did Tampa start with? 13. Opened 29-7 and just 23-19 since.  They'll revert to their talent and start playing 18-24 ball. They have 27 comeback wins, a RP who's 8-1 with a fip over 5. They can't sustain what they've accomplished. SPs putting them behind and bullpen outperforming Fip with offense coming back to win. They do look like they have a lock down closer. De la Cruz is doing great through 15games. Let's see when pitchers adjust once finding a weakness how well he continues. 

They only need to get to the deadline near 1st place and Krall has already said they would add the pitching they would need to win the central.

They have the prospect capital, especially IF, where they can add multiple starters and bullpen arms. A Bieber and a Giolito would make their rotation as strong as any in the game when added to Greene-Abbott and a September Lodolo.

Add a Chapman to the bullpen and that team could win the World Series.

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, SF70 said:

They only need to get to the deadline near 1st place and Krall has already said they would add the pitching they would need to win the central.

They have the prospect capital, especially IF, where they can add multiple starters and bullpen arms. A Bieber and a Giolito would make their rotation as strong as any in the game when added to Greene-Abbott and a September Lodolo.

Add a Chapman to the bullpen and that team could win the World Series.

Woah. Let’s take a step back here. Especially since I remember you talking about how big of a threat the Pirates were little more than a month ago.

Krall may have said that, but the Reds would be incredibly stupid to start mortgaging their prospect capital at this stage of their rebuild. 

Bieber? As we saw last night, he just isn’t a difference making arm anymore. Giolito is probably a solid #2, but there will be a ton of competition for him seeing as he’ll be pretty much the only top of the rotation arm available at the deadline. Teams that are far more desperate to make and do something in the playoffs than the Reds.

And then Greene and Lodolo are currently on the IL, with neither throwing more than 120 innings in a season. Lodolo isn’t set to return until August at the earliest. Not to mention Ashcraft has taken a huge step back. 

Then you have their lineup which, while producing at a high level at the moment, is still composed largely of rookies, unproven players, and well past their prime guys. De La Cruz is going to be a stud, but his K rate is also bordering 30% and his xStats are pretty mediocre. McClain’s are a little better, but not the greatest. Friedl and Fraley are unproven and soaring past their career norms. And Joey Votto has suddenly risen from the dead to OPS at 1.500. Bottom line is there’s regression coming on this end…

Overall, Reds are in really, really good shape for the future, but it’s way too premature to start talking about them as World Series contenders. They’re not even shoo-ins to finish above .500. Could they win the division? Of course. I just have a hard time seeing it happen with how young they are and how bad their starting pitching has been. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think the Reds look terrifying in 2024 and 2025. I'm not scared of them in 2023 if the Brewers take care of business.

Look at yesterday's game. The Reds scored 11 runs on nine hits against the Braves and won by one run. They're in an extremely fortune run right now but unless they get their pitching sorted in a hurry, we could easily see a Pirates-level collapse just around the corner.

In their past 26 games, they have nine one-run wins. And they didn't create much separation from the Brewers, being only 1.5 games ahead.

Could the Reds win the division? Oh, absolutely. Do I think they will? No.

[SF70]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Woah. Let’s take a step back here. Especially since I remember you talking about how big of a threat the Pirates were little more than a month ago.

Krall may have said that, but the Reds would be incredibly stupid to start mortgaging their prospect capital at this stage of their rebuild. 

Bieber? As we saw last night, he just isn’t a difference making arm anymore. Giolito is probably a solid #2, but there will be a ton of competition for him seeing as he’ll be pretty much the only top of the rotation arm available at the deadline. Teams that are far more desperate to make and do something in the playoffs than the Reds.

And then Greene and Lodolo are currently on the IL, with neither throwing more than 120 innings in a season. Lodolo isn’t set to return until August at the earliest. Not to mention Ashcraft has taken a huge step back. 

Then you have their lineup which, while producing at a high level at the moment, is still composed largely of rookies, unproven players, and well past their prime guys. De La Cruz is going to be a stud, but his K rate is also bordering 30% and his xStats are pretty mediocre. McClain’s are a little better, but not the greatest. Friedl and Fraley are unproven and soaring past their career norms. And Joey Votto has suddenly risen from the dead to OPS at 1.500. Bottom line is there’s regression coming on this end…

Overall, Reds are in really, really good shape for the future, but it’s way too premature to start talking about them as World Series contenders. They’re not even shoo-ins to finish above .500. Could they win the division? Of course. I just have a hard time seeing it happen with how young they are and how bad their starting pitching has been. 

I’m not talking about the Reds of the last 12 games, I’m talking about the Reds post-winning streak. They have THE MOST athletic and fast team in baseball, more so than Arizona. They have incredible positional depth, and versatility. Their lineup has no weakness. 
 

They can limit Greene’s innings if they want to and Abbott’s as well, especially if they decide to trade for 1-2 of Bieber-Giolito-Lynn-Scherzer-Verlander.

They have so much prospect IF depth in their farm, they can get multiples of any pitchers they want put up for sale at the deadline. Their depth is such they won’t be mortgaging their farm.

[wiguy94]

3 minutes ago, SF70 said:

I’m not talking about the Reds of the last 12 games, I’m talking about the Reds post-winning streak. They have THE MOST athletic and fast team in baseball, more so than Arizona. They have incredible positional depth, and versatility. Their lineup has no weakness. 
 

They can limit Greene’s innings if they want to and Abbott’s as well, especially if they decide to trade for 1-2 of Bieber-Giolito-Lynn-Scherzer-Verlander.

They have so much prospect IF depth in their farm, they can get multiples of any pitchers they want put up for sale at the deadline. Their depth is such they won’t be mortgaging their farm.

I really pray the Reds operate like you want them. Please blow the farm system for rental/old starting pitchers!

[Playing Catch]

23 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

I really pray the Reds operate like you want them. Please blow the farm system for rental/old starting pitchers!

Yeah, they're on a nice little run here, and if I were a Reds fan, I'd have boundless optimism and excitement. But moving prospect-pieces for pitching is a difficult dance to master. A lot can go wrong. In addition, it's still pretty early with their young guys. There are plenty of hot-shot rookies (ahem, Hiura), that come up and mash for a few months before the league figures them out.

[LouisEly]

On 6/19/2023 at 2:57 PM, StearnsFTW said:

The reason the Brewers have an 8 1/2 game lead on St Louis with the same run differential is the bullpens.  Brewers are far more likely to win close games given that they have the best bullpen in baseball compared to the Cardinals' horrid pen.

And May 15th.  Take that game away and the Brewers RD is -3 and the Cardinals is -27.

Hell, just take away the 8th inning of that game and the run differentials are Brewers -11 and the Cardinals -19.

I've said this before and I'll say it again, Pythagorean/run differential should only include two standard deviations from the median and should exclude the 2.5% largest wins and 2.5% largest losses.