NL Central Discussion

[MrTPlush]

9 hours ago, 82brewcrew82 said:

Why would anyone have that much confidence in the Cardinals?  All four teams you mentioned have been better teams all year.

Could I see the Cardinals besting one of those teams? Two of them? Sure

The problem is, they would have to outplay 4 teams…two of which are ahead by a very large 8+ game gap. 

Considering they almost surely aren’t going to notably try to improve their team…I think it is time people stop letting the Cardinals live rent free in their heads 24/7.
 

[Jopal78]

5 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

Could I see the Cardinals besting one of those teams? Two of them? Sure

The problem is, they would have to outplay 4 teams…two of which are ahead by a very large 8+ game gap. 

Considering they almost surely aren’t going to notably try to improve their team…I think it is time people stop letting the Cardinals live rent free in their heads 24/7.
 

Seriously, this Division is  trash. By Thursday the First place Brewers will likely be 1-2 games over .500.
 

Given the above, they someone is willing to write the epitaph on any team in the Division in June is kind of silly. 

[wiguy94]

If only Brewers fans on this site believed in the Brewers as much as they do the Cardinals. 

[jay87shot]

I am past worrying about the Pirates and Cards but the Reds seem to have a huge future. 

With de la Cruz,  Steer, McLain, Friedl, India, Benson, Stephenson, and Encarnacion-Strand on the way there is a ton of offense. They have money and prospects to fix the massive holes in their rotation around Greene and Abbott.  

[Jopal78]

2 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

If only Brewers fans on this site believed in the Brewers as much as they do the Cardinals. 

Their team OPS is .690, there’s believing and then there’s blind faith. 

[MrTPlush]

11 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Seriously, this Division is  trash. By Thursday the First place Brewers will likely be 1-2 games over .500.
 

Given the above, they someone is willing to write the epitaph on any team in the Division in June is kind of silly. 

I think you are really underestimating how bad the Cardinals have been and how bad their record is. They are on pace for nearly 100 losses. The chance they pass up three teams to win the division is seriously minuscule…there are only like 3 teams in baseball with a worse record.

If the Brewers (or Reds for that matter) played .500 baseball the rest of the year, which is probably pretty realistic, the Cardinals would have to go 56-34 to pass them up. 101 win pace the rest of the year.

I’m betting that doesn’t happen.

[sveumrules]

9 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Their team OPS is .690, there’s believing and then there’s blind faith. 

Right, the Brewers can’t hit (87 wRC+ | 25th) while STL can (106 wRC+ | 11th).

Now let’s do the rest of the team.

Defense
MIL: +34 DRS (3rd)
STL: -22 DRS (27th)

Starting Pitchers
MIL: 5.9 rWAR (9th)
STL: 2.6 rWAR (24th)

Relief Pitchers
MIL: +4.26 WPA (1st)
STL: -2.76 WPA (27th)

[82brewcrew82]

9 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Their team OPS is .690, there’s believing and then there’s blind faith. 

The Cardinals have a .403 winning percentage.  There is believing and then there is blind faith.

[StearnsFTW]

42 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Right, the Brewers can’t hit (87 wRC+ | 25th) while STL can (106 wRC+ | 11th).

Now let’s do the rest of the team.

Defense
MIL: +34 DRS (3rd)
STL: -22 DRS (27th)

Starting Pitchers
MIL: 5.9 rWAR (9th)
STL: 2.6 rWAR (24th)

Relief Pitchers
MIL: +4.26 WPA (1st)
STL: -2.76 WPA (27th)

You and your ridiculous facts.

[rickh150]

June 19 NL Central Run Differential (when Cards are 14 games under .500 and with Brewers in first place)

Cubs +9

Cards -15

Brewers -16

Reds -19

Pirates -24

[Fear The Chorizo]

45 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Right, the Brewers can’t hit (87 wRC+ | 25th) while STL can (106 wRC+ | 11th).

Now let’s do the rest of the team.

Defense
MIL: +34 DRS (3rd)
STL: -22 DRS (27th)

Starting Pitchers
MIL: 5.9 rWAR (9th)
STL: 2.6 rWAR (24th)

Relief Pitchers
MIL: +4.26 WPA (1st)
STL: -2.76 WPA (27th)

The Brewers can't hit but the Cardinals can't pitch or play defense - and that's why the dirty birds are in the cellar of a weak division.  And unless they dramatically get their pitching fixed, there's no extended hot streak for that team back up the standings - this isn't beer league softball where they can expect to win 15 out of every 20 games 10-8 for a few months.

I've posted it in other threads - I absolutely despise Yadi Molina, but it's obvious to me how much he helped their pitching overperform their ability over the years.  Not saying his absence behind the dish is the only reason their pitching sucks (many of their key arms are just not good enough anymore due to age/injuries), but it definitely is a big reason.

[Jopal78]

2 hours ago, 82brewcrew82 said:

The Cardinals have a .403 winning percentage.  There is believing and then there is blind faith.

I don’t think or believe Cardinals will turn it around. However, I do think it’s silly to completely close the door on the possibility of a team with Arenado, Goldschmidt, Gorman and Walker, plus an above average bullpen and 3 average starting pitchers making a comeback where their Division leader hovers around a game or two above .500 in the third week of June. 

 

 

[wiguy94]

3 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

plus an above average bullpen and 3 average starting pitchers

Where are you getting above average bullpen and 3 average starting pitchers from?

Cards bullpen has been one of the worst in the MLB this year and Helsley is on the IL with forearm tightness. 
 

Mikolas and Flaherty are not average SP. Their ERA- are both below league average and their xERA and peripheral batted numbers are well below league average. Montgomery is their only SP who is average or better  
 

[rickh150]

29 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

I don’t think or believe Cardinals will turn it around. However, I do think it’s silly to completely close the door on the possibility of a team with Arenado, Goldschmidt, Gorman and Walker, plus an above average bullpen and 3 average starting pitchers making a comeback where their Division leader hovers around a game or two above .500 in the third week of June. 

 

 

Of course the Cards are going to get hot.  They will be in the mix all season. Reds and Pirates have overachieved to the max.

[82brewcrew82]

1 minute ago, rickh150 said:

Of course the Cards are going to get hot.  They will be in the mix all season. Reds and Pirates have overachieved to the max.

Hasn't been the case to this point.  Not even close.

[rickh150]

4 minutes ago, 82brewcrew82 said:

Hasn't been the case to this point.  Not even close.

Their run differential is better than Milwaukee. Crazy to dismiss them. Of course not. Tons of season left. That is why I will cheer on the Reds and Pirates over the Cards til I dare say early September, at the earliest.

[wiguy94]

1 minute ago, rickh150 said:

Their run differential is better than Milwaukee. Crazy to dismiss them. Of course not. Tons of season left. That is why I will cheer on the Reds and Pirates over the Cards til I dare say early September, at the earliest.

Their run differential is 1 run better than the Brewers lol. They also have a terrible bullpen so them underperforming their run differential is not at all surprising.

[82brewcrew82]

37 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

I don’t think or believe Cardinals will turn it around. However, I do think it’s silly to completely close the door on the possibility of a team with Arenado, Goldschmidt, Gorman and Walker, plus an above average bullpen and 3 average starting pitchers making a comeback where their Division leader hovers around a game or two above .500 in the third week of June. 

 

 

You don't think or believe the Cardinals will turn it around?  You've literally posted just that, how the Brewers are keeping first place warm for the Cardinals among other things.  Then you make an argument with facts that don't exist?  No one on this board has ever said that the Cardinals are out of it.  They have only pointed out how historically good they'd have to be to make this run you think they have in them despite being the same team for months now.  The Cardinals have been awful, like one of the five worst teams in the league awful for some time now.

[rickh150]

1 minute ago, 82brewcrew82 said:

3 hours ago, 82brewcrew82 said:

The Cardinals have a .403 winning percentage.  There is believing and then there is blind faith.

You must be too young to remember September and October of 2011.

[rickh150]

5 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Their run differential is 1 run better than the Brewers lol. They also have a terrible bullpen so them underperforming their run differential is not at all surprising.

So better than Milwaukee, yes. Run differential is a pretty good measure of a team, 
I feel the Brewers, Cards, and Cubs are the best three teams in the division and have no faith in the Reds and Pirates for 162 games.

[82brewcrew82]

7 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

You must be too young to remember September and October of 2011.

I'm not.  Also old enough to know that September and October of a team that existed 12 years ago has zero impact on what is happening now.

[brooks_quichenick]

Doubting the Cardinals chances in June. Surely, this cannot go wrong!

[rickh150]

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds-graphs

Fangraphs have more faith in Cards than Reds and Pirates… in a few days it would be Cubs too.

[Brewcrew82]

17 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

You must be too young to remember September and October of 2011.

Those Cardinals weren't in nearly as bad a position in the standings or pitching/defense-wise as the current iteration...

[rickh150]

4 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Those Cardinals weren't in nearly as bad a position in the standings or pitching/defense-wise as the current iteration...

In the standings, you are wrong. Their position to make the playoffs were much worse on Sept. 1.  Pitching and defense, I’ll hesitatingly agree.

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/Social-Media/st-louis-cardinals-2011-world-series/5KCJSCH2YLRJBY4R#:~:text=On September 1%2C the Cardinals,of going all the way.