NL Central Discussion

[82brewcrew82]

9 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds-graphs

Fangraphs have more faith in Cards than Reds and Pirates… in a few days it would be Cubs too.

In looking at that graph, faith is a strong word for the chances given to any of those teams.  It would seem the only team they give serious consideration to is the Brewers.  Having said that, outside of one hot streak the Cardinals "faith" has taken a complete nose dive with Reds making up serious ground on them.  That graph would suggest the Cardinals should be much more worried about the Reds passing them than they should be about catching the Cubs.

[rickh150]

1 minute ago, rickh150 said:

In the standings, you are wrong. Their position to make the playoffs were much worse on Sept. 1.  Pitching and defense, I’ll hesitatingly agree.

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/Social-Media/st-louis-cardinals-2011-world-series/5KCJSCH2YLRJBY4R#:~:text=On September 1%2C the Cardinals,of going all the way.

10 and a half games out of the Wild Card on Sept. 1!!!!

[StearnsFTW]

51 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

Of course the Cards are going to get hot.  They will be in the mix all season. Reds and Pirates have overachieved to the max.

Well, they haven't been in the mix at all, so all season seems doubtful.

[82brewcrew82]

7 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

10 and a half games out of the Wild Card on Sept. 1!!!!

Never mind Atlanta's complete collapse but the reality is that nothing that happened in 2011 has any bearing on anything happening in 2023.

[rickh150]

2 minutes ago, StearnsFTW said:

Well, they haven't been in the mix at all, so all season seems doubtful.

They have been in it all season! Still! It’s June.  Season ends Oct. 1.

Sure it’s doubtful for Cards to make the playoffs or win the division, as opposed to likely or probable. It’s doubtful, like fangraphs has posted…16% to win division, 28% to make playoffs. That seems about right. Many here seem to think of it as less than 5% odds for each. 

[Brewcrew82]

18 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

In the standings, you are wrong. Their position to make the playoffs were much worse on Sept. 1.  Pitching and defense, I’ll hesitatingly agree.

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/Social-Media/st-louis-cardinals-2011-world-series/5KCJSCH2YLRJBY4R#:~:text=On September 1%2C the Cardinals,of going all the way.

They also have to jump a lot more teams now than they did then due to their position in the standings...And they're currently 14 games below .500. The 2011 team never crept below .500 after mid-April. That Cardinals team was solid for most of the season and got insanely hot at the end. This Cardinals team isn't good and has shown no signs that they're going to have the sort of hot stretch they need to propel themselves into playoff contention. 

Can we count them out? no Should we be worried about them right now? Also, no. 

[rickh150]

1 minute ago, Brewcrew82 said:

They also have to jump a lot more teams now than they did then due to their position in the standings...And they're currently 14 games below .500. The 2011 team never crept below .500 after mid-April. That Cardinals team was solid for most of the season and got insanely hot. This Cardinals team isn't good and has shown no signs that they're going to have the sort of hot stretch they need to propel themselves into playoff contention. 

Sept. 1, 2011…. Out 10.5 games of wild card….Odds of Cards making playoffs= 1.7%  Fangraphs

JUNE 19, 2023…. Cards out 8.5 games for division, 10 for Wild Card….. Odds of making playoffs 28.8%… odds of winning the World Series THIS YEAR…1.7% Fangraphs

[82brewcrew82]

8 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

They have been in it all season! Still! It’s June.  Season ends Oct. 1.

Sure it’s doubtful for Cards to make the playoffs or win the division, as opposed to likely or probable. It’s doubtful, like fangraphs has posted…16% to win division, 28% to make playoffs. That seems about right. Many here seem to think of it as less than 5% odds for each. 

I don't know what you are looking at but that graph you posted has the Cardinals at 12.1 for the playoffs and 11.1 for the division.  Those number are...not good.  Sure, not impossible, but historically unlikely, which is all anyone on this board is saying.

[82brewcrew82]

4 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

Sept. 1, 2011…. Out 10.5 games of wild card….Odds of Cards making playoffs= 1.7%  Fangraphs

JUNE 19, 2023…. Cards out 8.5 games for division, 10 for Wild Card….. Odds of making playoffs 28.8%… odds of winning the World Series THIS YEAR…1.7% Fangraphs

But that Cardinal team was never a "bad" team.  This one is, which is all that matter for 2023.

[Brewcrew82]

2 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

Sept. 1, 2011…. Out 10.5 games of wild card….Odds of Cards making playoffs= 1.7%  Fangraphs

JUNE 19, 2023…. Cards out 8.5 games for division, 10 for Wild Card….. Odds of making playoffs 28.8%… odds of winning the World Series THIS YEAR…1.7% Fangraphs

Context is key my friend. In baseball as in life.

Can we count the Cardinals out completely? No. Should we be worried about them right now? Also, no. 

[brooks_quichenick]

Dear Baseball Gods,

Please forgive the Brewers fans that are twisting themselves into knots finding ways to write off the St. Louis Cardinals on JUNE 19TH, 2023. The rest of us do not wish to be punished for their hubris.

[rickh150]

4 minutes ago, 82brewcrew82 said:

I don't know what you are looking at but that graph you posted has the Cardinals at 12.1 for the playoffs and 11.1 for the division.  Those number are...not good.  Sure, not impossible, but historically unlikely, which is all anyone on this board is saying.

You are correct… 12.1% for playoffs. Still 10 times more likely than 2011 Cards to make playoffs.

[Brewcrew82]

5 minutes ago, brooks_quichenick said:

Dear Baseball Gods,

Please forgive the Brewers fans that are twisting themselves into knots finding ways to write off the St. Louis Cardinals on JUNE 19TH, 2023. The rest of us do not wish to be punished for their hubris.

Except no one here is writing off the Cardinals. We're just saying that it's highly improbable at this point, and that there are bigger worries. 

[82brewcrew82]

2 minutes ago, brooks_quichenick said:

Dear Baseball Gods,

Please forgive the Brewers fans that are twisting themselves into knots finding ways to write off the St. Louis Cardinals on JUNE 19TH, 2023. The rest of us do not wish to be punished for their hubris.

Yeah, sorry.  Not a believer in baseball gods.  I lean more toward facts.

[rickh150]

2 minutes ago, brooks_quichenick said:

Dear Baseball Gods,

Please forgive the Brewers fans that are twisting themselves into knots finding ways to write off the St. Louis Cardinals on JUNE 19TH, 2023. The rest of us do not wish to be punished for their hubris.

They just need to lose. Forget about standings. Cubs too.

[82brewcrew82]

1 minute ago, rickh150 said:

You are correct… 12.1% for playoffs. Still 10 times more likely than 2011 Cards to make playoffs.

The 2011 Cardinals have nothing to do with the 2023 Cardinals.  In 2023, the Cardinals have not been a good team at any point and that is reflected in their playoff chances which are a statistical coin toss with those of the Pirates and Reds that you seem to have written off.

[Brewcrew82]

Just now, rickh150 said:

You are correct… 12.1% for playoffs. Still 10 times more likely than 2011 Cards to make playoffs.

At the same time, the 2011 team was never below .500 after mid-April. The current team is 14 games below .500 with a negative run differential in the double digits. Different years, different teams, different threats. 

[rickh150]

4 minutes ago, 82brewcrew82 said:

Yeah, sorry.  Not a believer in baseball gods.  I lean more toward facts.

Like Cards having a better run differential than Crew when the Cards are awful with terrible pitching and defense?

[brooks_quichenick]

Just now, Brewcrew82 said:

At the same time, the 2011 team was never below .500 after mid-April. The current team is 14 games below .500 with a negative run differential in the double digits. Different years, different teams, different threats. 

It's all relative. Yea, the Cardinals are below .500 with a negative run differential, but the NL Central as a whole is awful this year. The Cubs are the only team in the division with a positive run differential. Every other team has a negative run differential in the double digits, and the Brewers is worse than the Cards. It's not like the 2023 Cards are chasing the 2011 Brewers record-wise, they just need to keep pace with 4 other teams that are mediocre at best.

[rickh150]

4 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

At the same time, the 2011 team was never below .500 after mid-April. The current team is 14 games below .500 with a negative run differential in the double digits. Different years, different teams, different threats. 

Think we are talking about simply being in contention for a playoff spot. So you bet different. Like ten times more likely now for Cards to get the 3rd WC or mediocre division than the team that got the lone wild card (and won the WS) in 2011.

[82brewcrew82]

1 minute ago, rickh150 said:

Like Cards having a better run differential than Crew when the Cards are awful with terrible pitching and defense?

Its a one run differential.  Statistically meaningless so yes.  Run differential is a nice tool but taken by itself lacks context.  Either way, we don't go back a play the games over or get some special adjustment based on run differential.  Teams over and under perform run differential every year to a greater degree than one single run.  So, all that matters here is wins and losses moving forward.  Your fangraphs graph seems to suggest they think the Brewers will outperform the Cardinals the rest of the way.

[Brewcrew82]

Just now, brooks_quichenick said:

It's all relative. Yea, the Cardinals are below .500 with a negative run differential, but the NL Central as a whole is awful this year. The Cubs are the only team in the division with a positive run differential. Every other team has a negative run differential in the double digits, and the Brewers is worse than the Cards. It's not like the 2023 Cards are chasing the 2011 Brewers record-wise, they just need to keep pace with 4 other teams that are mediocre at best.

Right. Which is why you can't count them out completely. But that's still 8.5 games and three teams separating them and the Brewers.

Cardinals need to actually start playing good baseball at some point and for a lengthy stretch. They haven't shown any signs of being able to do that thus far.

[Brewcrew82]

6 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

Think we are talking about simply being in contention for a playoff spot. So you bet different. Like ten times more likely now for Cards to get the 3rd WC or mediocre division than the team that got the lone wild card (and won the WS) in 2011.

Okay. But 11% is still 11%. Doesn't happen 9 times out of 10....What happened in 2011 is irrelevant.

[82brewcrew82]

6 minutes ago, brooks_quichenick said:

It's all relative. Yea, the Cardinals are below .500 with a negative run differential, but the NL Central as a whole is awful this year. The Cubs are the only team in the division with a positive run differential. Every other team has a negative run differential in the double digits, and the Brewers is worse than the Cards. It's not like the 2023 Cards are chasing the 2011 Brewers record-wise, they just need to keep pace with 4 other teams that are mediocre at best.

Sure but hasn't that been the task all year?  Nobody went into this season expecting the division to be anything other than mediocre and they seem to be living up to that, just not the teams we thought.  The only real surprise is just how bad the Cardinals have been.

[brooks_quichenick]

2 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Cardinals need to actually start playing good baseball at some point and for a lengthy stretch. They haven't shown any signs of being able to do that thus far.

I'd argue that no team in this division has shown any signs of being able to do that thus far, other than maybe the Reds and Cubs recently. 8.5 GB in June, with arguably the best offense in the division, is really not much.